Travis Smith

P Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	25	25	102	3.43	2.65	17.4%	6.9%	—	K 13.0% · BB 8.1% · FIP 3.17
2026	23	MIX2 levels	25	7	73	7.49	6.39	15.5%	13.5%	—	K 12.1% · BB 15.1% · FIP 7.07
2027PROJ	24	MLBMIL	11	11	67	6.20	6.20	10.2%	13.5%	-0.9
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBMIL	6	6	40	5.88	5.80	13.0%	12.4%	-0.4
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBMIL	10	10	62	5.66	5.59	14.6%	12.0%	-0.5

Next 3 projected WAR -1.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control50Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsOscar Verdugo (age 25) · Wirkin Estevez (age 24) · Tyler Brashears (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 151143vR 135

ERA6.20

FIP6.20

K%10.2%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%-3.3%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5050

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	102	420	73	29	1	100%	4.1	13.0%	8.1%	4.9%	0.3%	3.43	3.17	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	102	420	73	29	1	100%	4.1	13.0%	8.1%	4.9%	0.3%	3.43	3.17	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	102	420	73	29	1	100%	4.1	17.4%	6.9%	10.5%	0.2%	3.43	2.65	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	7	73	349	54	47	16	28%	2.9	12.1%	15.1%	-3.0%	5.6%	7.49	7.07	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	7	73	349	54	47	16	28%	2.9	12.1%	15.1%	-3.0%	5.6%	7.49	7.07	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	7	73	349	54	47	16	28%	2.9	15.5%	13.5%	2.0%	4.6%	7.49	6.39	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	MIL	11	11	67	283	29	38	10	100%	6.1	10.2%	13.5%	-3.3%	3.4%	6.20	6.20	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	93	394	51	49	13	100%	6.2	13.0%	12.4%	0.5%	3.4%	5.88	5.80	-0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	93	394	58	47	13	100%	6.2	14.6%	12.0%	2.6%	3.3%	5.66	5.59	-0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	92	388	58	46	13	100%	6.1	15.0%	11.9%	3.1%	3.4%	5.58	5.57	-0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIL	14	14	89	376	57	45	13	100%	6.4	15.0%	11.9%	3.1%	3.5%	5.59	5.62	-0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIL	14	14	85	359	53	44	13	100%	6.1	14.8%	12.2%	2.6%	3.6%	5.69	5.75	-0.8
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	80	338	56	39	13	100%	6.2	16.4%	11.7%	4.8%	3.8%	5.67	5.66	-0.7
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIL	6	6	40	169	22	21	6	100%	6.7	13.0%	12.4%	0.5%	3.4%	5.88	5.80	-0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIL	10	10	62	262	38	31	9	100%	6.2	14.6%	12.0%	2.6%	3.3%	5.66	5.59	-0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	71	300	45	36	10	100%	6.5	15.0%	11.9%	3.1%	3.4%	5.58	5.57	-0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	75	317	48	38	11	100%	6.2	15.0%	11.9%	3.1%	3.5%	5.59	5.62	-0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	74	312	46	38	11	100%	6.2	14.8%	12.2%	2.6%	3.6%	5.69	5.75	-0.7
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	72	304	50	35	12	100%	6.0	16.4%	11.7%	4.8%	3.8%	5.67	5.66	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	64	395	1666	249	200	58	100%	6.2	15.0%	12.0%	3.0%	3.5%	5.66	5.28	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	126	101	29	100%	6.2	15.0%	12.0%	3.0%	3.5%	5.66	5.28	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		50	32	176	769	97	87	21	64%	3.5	12.6%	11.3%	1.3%	2.7%	5.12	4.94	-4.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	36	200	876	110	99	24	64%	3.5	12.6%	11.3%	1.3%	2.7%	5.12	4.94	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Travis Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.20	10.2%	13.5%	3.4%	—	5.65	14.2%	2.1%	278	-0.55	—	—	—
Oscar Verdugo R 2015 · 6.33 FIP	25	SP-	6.33	10.5%	13.9%	4.3%	.241	5.78	10.8%	-1.8%	74	-0.55	5.01	144	88
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	85
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	85
Jorge Sosa R 2002 · 5.77 FIP	25	SW	5.77	11.1%	12.4%	3.7%	.228	4.55	15.7%	5.5%	362	-1.22	4.06	773	83
Boone Whiting R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	11.3%	13.9%	2.6%	.337	4.88	10.9%	4.8%	132	-0.45	4.88	227	82
LJ Brewster R 2017 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	9.4%	11.0%	2.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	143	81
Dane Myers R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	23	SW	5.32	12.2%	11.5%	3.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.26	125	79
Zach Willeman R 2019 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	10.8%	15.0%	2.7%	.296	4.98	21.3%	7.8%	108	-0.59	4.05	264	79
Andrew Thurman R 2016 · 6.31 FIP	24	SP-	6.31	14.4%	16.9%	4.2%	.291	2.59	16.8%	9.6%	25	-3.72	2.59	264	78
Justin Dillon R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	24	SP-	5.26	11.8%	8.8%	3.7%	.265	4.34	15.6%	9.1%	124	-0.92	3.65	239	77
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	77
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	77
Lauro Ramirez R 2015 · 5.80 FIP	25	SP-	5.80	9.5%	10.1%	4.1%	.382	4.99	7.2%	-3.4%	90	-0.81	4.99	140	77
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	77
Mitchell Boggs R 2008 · 5.80 FIP	24	SP-	5.80	7.9%	13.4%	3.0%	.298	3.63	18.0%	8.6%	186	-2.17	3.21	330	76
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	76
Jacob Cravey R 2024 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP-	5.15	14.4%	18.0%	1.8%	.333	5.84	14.7%	1.0%	124	+0.69	4.97	208	75
Felipe Gonzalez R 2016 · 5.47 FIP	24	SP-	5.47	14.7%	10.6%	4.1%	.330	4.12	19.9%	10.4%	139	-1.35	3.27	339	75
Tyler Schlaffer R 2024 · 5.08 FIP	23	SP-	5.08	14.5%	13.3%	2.8%	.298	4.13	20.3%	7.7%	190	-0.95	3.79	399	75
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	86	14.3%	12.2%	1.34	5.74
Mac Suzuki ('02)	2.3	93	15.4%	12.5%	1.29	5.72
Bobby Jones ('04)	1.6	81	15.1%	12.9%	1.25	5.77
Hal Griggs ('56-'59, -4 WAR*)	1.7	116	16.8%*	11.9%*	1.33*	5.92*
Jesse Winters ('19-'23, -2 WAR*)	2.0	81	13.7%*	11.0%*	1.29*	5.12*
Charlie Bishop ('52-'55, -1 WAR*)	1.5	98	16.9%*	11.2%*	1.30*	5.49*
Sean Douglass ('05)	1.0	52	16.6%	12.1%	1.47	6.11