Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | A | San Jose Giants | 33 | 0 | 71 | 287 | 70 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 2.2 | 18.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 0.5% | 2.54 | 3.01 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | San Jose Giants | 33 | 0 | 71 | 287 | 70 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 2.2 | 24.4% | 7.7% | 16.7% | 0.7% | 2.54 | 2.42 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 19 | 0 | 21 | 87 | 31 | 9 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.6% | 11.8% | 16.8% | 1.6% | 3.92 | 3.06 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | SF | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 50 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.5% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 4.70 | 4.70 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | SF | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17.5% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 4.70 | 4.70 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | SF | — | — | 88 | 371 | 81 | 37 | 9 | — | — | 21.8% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 2.3% | 4.52 | 4.31 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | SF | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 17.5% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 4.70 | 4.32 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | SF | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 53 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.62 | 4.60 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | SF | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 55 | 27 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.57 | 4.55 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | SF | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 23 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.62 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | SF | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 36 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.57 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 71 | 0 | 75 | 316 | 59 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 4.59 | 4.19 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 158 | 80 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 4.59 | 4.19 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 52 | 0 | 92 | 374 | 77 | 36 | 3 | 0% | 1.8 | 20.5% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 0.8% | 2.85 | 3.02 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 113 | 0 | 200 | 816 | 167 | 79 | 6 | 0% | 1.8 | 20.5% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 0.8% | 2.85 | 3.02 | +5.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Slater (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.70 | 17.5% | 9.9% | 2.7% | — | 4.57 | 18.8% | 9.2% | 136 | -0.13 | — | — | — |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.12 | 17.8% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .309 | 3.23 | 24.8% | 15.5% | 104 | -0.89 | 2.88 | 312 | 91 |
| Stephen Villines R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.99 | 16.8% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .280 | 3.05 | 20.6% | 14.7% | 40 | -0.94 | 2.16 | 156 | 91 |
| Bryan Pope R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.87 | 19.4% | 9.5% | 2.2% | .332 | 5.00 | 12.7% | -0.3% | 22 | +1.13 | 3.87 | 148 | 90 |
| Rob Griswold R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.30 | 16.8% | 8.3% | 2.9% | .244 | 4.64 | 12.5% | 6.2% | 144 | +0.34 | 3.55 | 203 | 90 |
| Alex Hermeling R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.87 | 16.5% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 127 | 90 |
| Josh Uhen R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.00 | 16.1% | 9.7% | 1.9% | .303 | 3.97 | 15.6% | 1.2% | 82 | -0.03 | 3.13 | 185 | 90 |
| Dillon McNamara R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.10 | 16.4% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .245 | 4.05 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 125 | -0.05 | 1.73 | 244 | 90 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 90 |
| Kyle Whitten R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.26 | 18.0% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .296 | 5.21 | 18.2% | 7.4% | 37 | +0.95 | 4.26 | 152 | 90 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.84 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.90 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | +0.06 | 3.40 | 134 | 89 |
| Brian Glowicki R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.49 | 16.4% | 8.3% | 3.1% | .275 | 3.89 | 26.0% | 14.1% | 62 | -0.60 | 2.36 | 189 | 89 |
| Brayden Spears R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.07 | 15.7% | 10.5% | 1.8% | .337 | 4.25 | 19.9% | 9.0% | 44 | +0.18 | 4.07 | 105 | 89 |
| David Goforth R 2028 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.11 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .287 | 4.58 | 14.1% | 3.6% | 184 | +0.47 | 3.92 | 256 | 89 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 88 |
| Marcel Rentería R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.02 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 2.2% | .301 | 4.05 | 25.9% | 10.4% | 19 | +0.03 | 3.97 | 194 | 88 |
| Pedro Echemendia R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.76 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .286 | 4.02 | 11.0% | 5.9% | 72 | -0.74 | 4.02 | 141 | 88 |
| Dylan Hall R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.54 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 1.5% | .305 | 6.14 | 17.8% | 4.9% | 107 | +2.60 | 3.54 | 153 | 88 |
| Trey Cochran-Gill R 2025 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.10 | 15.3% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .294 | 4.62 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 112 | +0.52 | 3.51 | 258 | 88 |
| Mick VanVossen R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.41 | 18.6% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 141 | 88 |
| Matt Lollis R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.59 | 18.5% | 12.2% | 2.8% | .237 | 5.05 | 19.2% | 4.7% | 56 | +0.46 | 4.59 | 120 | 87 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 18.4% | 9.7% | 1.03 | 4.63 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |