Riley Davis prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Riley Davis P Modesto Nuts

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 56 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.63

FIP4.63

K%20.2%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%10.5%

ROS IP56

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	0	29	124	26	8	4	0%	1.5	15.3%	6.4%	9.0%	2.7%	4.60	4.12	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	0	29	124	26	8	4	0%	1.5	21.0%	6.5%	14.5%	3.2%	4.60	3.92	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	7	84	368	66	34	5	33%	4.0	13.3%	10.1%	3.2%	2.1%	3.86	4.41	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	7	84	368	66	34	5	33%	4.0	13.3%	10.1%	3.2%	2.1%	3.86	4.41	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	7	84	368	66	34	5	33%	4.0	17.9%	9.2%	8.7%	1.4%	3.86	3.52	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.2%	9.7%	10.5%	3.0%	4.63	4.63	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	SEA	52	0	55	231	47	23	7	0%	1.1	20.4%	9.8%	10.6%	3.1%	4.65	4.69	-0.1
2028	29	MLB MLE	SEA	50	0	52	221	45	22	7	0%	1.0	20.4%	10.0%	10.4%	3.2%	4.72	4.79	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	SEA	19	0	20	84	17	8	3	0%	1.1	20.4%	9.8%	10.6%	3.1%	4.65	4.69	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	SEA	28	0	29	122	25	12	4	0%	1.0	20.4%	10.0%	10.4%	3.2%	4.72	4.79	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		46	0	49	205	42	20	6	0%	1.1	20.4%	9.9%	10.5%	3.2%	4.69	4.37	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	173	82	25	0%	1.1	20.4%	9.9%	10.5%	3.2%	4.69	4.37	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		41	7	113	492	68	45	11	17%	2.8	13.8%	9.2%	4.7%	2.3%	4.05	4.34	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		72	12	200	868	120	80	20	17%	2.8	13.8%	9.2%	4.7%	2.3%	4.05	4.34	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Riley Davis (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	20.2%	9.7%	3.0%	—	4.74	20.4%	10.5%	107	+0.11	—	—	—
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	85
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	85
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	83
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	82
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	81
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	80
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	79
Wil Jensen R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	25	SU	4.88	20.2%	12.1%	3.5%	.284	3.48	22.7%	14.3%	84	-1.40	3.48	368	77
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	77
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	77
Daniel Blair R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	16.6%	10.0%	2.1%	.284	4.39	17.0%	7.8%	78	+0.29	4.10	171	76
Calvin Drummond R 2016 · 3.55 FIP	26	SW	3.55	16.9%	11.1%	0.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	112	76
Troy Neiman R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	26	SU	4.03	18.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	199	76
Jordan Milbrath R 2019 · 4.01 FIP	27	SU	4.01	21.5%	9.5%	2.8%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	386	76
Nick Merkel R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	25	SU	3.99	22.8%	7.1%	3.5%	.284	3.44	20.7%	10.3%	129	-0.55	3.15	205	76
Dylan Cumming R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SW	4.11	16.0%	10.7%	1.8%	.311	4.31	18.4%	9.4%	314	+0.20	3.75	406	76
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	76
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	76
Donovan Hand R 2013 · 4.72 FIP	27	SW	4.72	12.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.279	4.30	11.1%	6.8%	97	-0.42	4.30	305	76
Nolan Clenney R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	27	SU	4.76	23.0%	10.1%	4.2%	.341	4.58	17.2%	7.5%	71	-0.18	3.73	223	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	55	20.3%	9.8%	1.19	4.67
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
John Johnstone ('00)	1.4	56	19.4%	9.5%	1.23	4.01
Mark Lowe ('16)	1.9	64	20.9%	9.7%	1.10	4.22
Josh Lindblom ('21)	1.0	52	22.1%	9.6%	1.25	4.78
Logan Ondrusek ('16)	1.4	55	18.1%	9.5%	1.14	4.03