Ben Vespi

P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	24	MIX3 levels	31	2	63	2.84	2.18	29.4%	7.7%	—	K 21.9% · BB 9.2% · FIP 3.22
2026	25	MIX2 levels	35	2	66	5.32	3.72	24.3%	7.9%	—	K 19.3% · BB 8.9% · FIP 4.57
2027PROJ	26	MLBBAL	67	0	70	4.63	4.63	19.8%	8.8%	-0.1
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBBAL	25	0	26	4.62	4.64	20.2%	8.9%	-0.0
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBBAL	38	0	40	4.65	4.70	20.3%	9.1%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control45Command55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsR.J. Alaniz (age 26) · Troy Neiman (age 26) · Brett McKinney (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.63

FIP4.63

K%19.8%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%11.0%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	2	63	272	80	21	3	6%	2.0	21.9%	9.2%	12.7%	1.5%	2.84	3.22	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	2	63	272	80	21	3	6%	2.0	21.9%	9.2%	12.7%	1.5%	2.84	3.22	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	2	63	272	80	21	3	6%	2.0	29.4%	7.7%	21.7%	1.1%	2.84	2.18	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	2	66	304	74	24	9	6%	1.9	19.3%	8.9%	10.4%	3.6%	5.32	4.57	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	2	66	304	74	24	9	6%	1.9	19.3%	8.9%	10.4%	3.6%	5.32	4.57	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	2	66	304	74	24	9	6%	1.9	24.3%	7.9%	16.4%	3.0%	5.32	3.72	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	BAL	67	0	70	296	59	26	9	0%	1.0	19.8%	8.8%	11.0%	3.1%	4.63	4.63	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	BAL	66	0	69	291	59	26	9	0%	1.0	20.2%	8.9%	11.2%	3.1%	4.62	4.64	-0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	BAL	64	0	67	282	57	26	9	0%	1.0	20.3%	9.1%	11.2%	3.2%	4.65	4.70	-0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	BAL	61	0	64	270	55	25	9	0%	1.0	20.2%	9.3%	10.9%	3.4%	4.74	4.81	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	BAL	25	0	26	110	22	10	3	0%	1.0	20.2%	8.9%	11.2%	3.1%	4.62	4.64	-0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	BAL	38	0	40	169	34	15	5	0%	1.1	20.3%	9.1%	11.2%	3.2%	4.65	4.70	-0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	BAL	43	0	45	190	38	18	6	0%	1.0	20.2%	9.3%	10.9%	3.4%	4.74	4.81	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		106	0	111	468	95	43	15	0%	1.0	20.2%	9.2%	11.1%	3.3%	4.68	4.35	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	171	78	27	0%	1.1	20.2%	9.2%	11.1%	3.3%	4.68	4.35	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		66	4	129	576	118	52	15	6%	2.0	20.5%	9.1%	11.5%	2.6%	4.11	3.93	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		102	6	200	891	183	81	23	6%	2.0	20.5%	9.1%	11.5%	2.6%	4.11	3.93	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ben Vespi (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	19.8%	8.8%	3.1%	—	4.71	20.2%	11.1%	200	+0.08	—	—	—
R.J. Alaniz R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	26	SU	3.91	20.7%	8.9%	2.6%	.318	3.28	23.8%	15.0%	96	-0.63	2.45	362	88
Troy Neiman R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	26	SU	4.03	18.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	199	88
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	87
Colton Murray R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	26	SU	3.97	21.2%	9.4%	2.7%	.295	4.27	21.8%	13.1%	41	+0.30	3.34	187	86
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	86
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	86
John Brebbia R 2016 · 4.11 FIP	26	SU	4.11	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.346	3.20	27.6%	21.4%	215	-0.91	2.89	576	85
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	85
Ryan Halstead R 2018 · 4.08 FIP	26	SU	4.08	18.0%	6.7%	3.0%	.296	3.24	16.1%	8.7%	64	-0.84	3.12	222	85
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	85
Spencer Stockton R 2022 · 4.18 FIP	26	SU	4.18	20.2%	10.3%	2.7%	.276	5.45	18.9%	6.4%	63	+1.27	1.93	233	85
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	84
Ryan Shreve R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	18.4%	7.7%	2.5%	.332	5.07	11.4%	1.0%	59	+1.19	3.16	290	84
Stephen Kohlscheen R 2015 · 3.83 FIP	26	SU	3.83	15.6%	8.1%	1.9%	.311	3.98	22.8%	15.0%	90	+0.15	2.52	167	84
Héctor Neris R 2015 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.9%	10.0%	2.5%	.298	3.03	31.5%	23.7%	221	-0.97	2.03	682	84
D.J. Carrasco R 2003 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	16.1%	10.1%	2.2%	.291	4.66	10.5%	1.4%	150	+0.39	3.23	490	84
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	84
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	84
J.J. Putz R 2004 · 4.57 FIP	27	SU	4.57	17.1%	7.3%	3.6%	.283	2.58	28.5%	23.0%	210	-1.99	1.43	563	84
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	20.1%	9.1%	1.24	4.66
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*