Gus Hughes — OGILVIE

Gus Hughes P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 190 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 57 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.54

FIP5.54

K%15.4%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%1.9%

ROS IP57

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	35	0	45	196	42	20	4	0%	1.3	15.9%	12.0%	3.8%	3.2%	3.80	5.02	—
2025	23	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	35	0	45	196	42	20	4	0%	1.3	15.9%	12.0%	3.8%	3.2%	3.80	5.02	—
2025	23	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	35	0	45	196	42	20	4	0%	1.3	21.4%	10.2%	11.2%	2.0%	3.80	3.72	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	27	1	53	232	60	16	4	4%	2.0	20.0%	7.8%	12.2%	2.5%	3.88	3.76	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	27	1	53	232	60	16	4	4%	2.0	20.0%	7.8%	12.2%	2.5%	3.88	3.76	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	WSH	24	1	49	211	57	14	4	4%	2.0	27.0%	6.6%	20.4%	1.9%	3.86	2.70	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	WSH	3	0	4	21	3	2	0	0%	1.4	14.3%	9.5%	4.8%	0.0%	4.15	3.10	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	WSH	55	0	58	244	41	30	7	0%	1.1	16.9%	12.5%	4.4%	3.0%	5.34	5.28	-0.5
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	55	0	58	244	43	30	7	0%	1.1	17.7%	12.2%	5.5%	3.0%	5.22	5.18	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	WSH	24	0	25	106	18	13	3	0%	1.0	16.9%	12.5%	4.4%	3.0%	5.34	5.28	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	36	0	38	160	28	20	5	0%	1.1	17.7%	12.2%	5.5%	3.0%	5.22	5.18	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	266	46	33	8	0%	1.1	17.4%	12.3%	5.1%	3.0%	5.27	4.84	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	146	105	25	0%	1.1	17.4%	12.3%	5.1%	3.0%	5.27	4.84	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		62	1	98	428	77	42	12	2%	1.6	18.1%	9.8%	8.3%	2.8%	3.84	4.33	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		126	2	200	871	158	85	24	2%	1.6	18.1%	9.8%	8.3%	2.8%	3.84	4.33	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gus Hughes (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.54	15.4%	13.5%	3.0%	—	5.23	17.3%	4.9%	116	-0.31	—	—	—
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	91
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	90
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	90
David Trexler R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	17.7%	13.4%	2.4%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.18	4.44	100	90
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	89
Jake Johansen R 2015 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	15.8%	12.8%	3.6%	.351	4.14	13.6%	3.0%	114	-1.20	3.65	162	88
Conner O'Neil R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	12.8%	13.6%	3.7%	.340	6.92	16.4%	4.1%	26	+1.14	2.89	115	88
Parker Markel R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	13.6%	12.3%	2.1%	.313	3.18	15.9%	6.2%	61	-1.49	3.18	266	87
Taylor Grover R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SU	5.03	15.1%	12.9%	2.9%	.229	4.30	18.7%	9.1%	150	-0.73	3.68	239	87
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	87
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	87
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	87
Rob Huber R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	117	86
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	86
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	86
Marc Brakeman R 2018 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.3%	13.7%	2.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	156	86
Michael Mertz R 2018 · 5.18 FIP	24	SU	5.18	16.1%	13.9%	3.0%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	133	86
Morgan McSweeney R 2022 · 5.16 FIP	24	SU	5.16	18.0%	13.9%	3.3%	.278	4.36	16.0%	6.0%	107	-0.80	3.20	213	86
Ryan Ledbetter R 2016 · 4.76 FIP	24	SU	4.76	18.5%	12.3%	3.0%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	4.76	124	85
Matthew Gorst R 2019 · 4.66 FIP	24	SU	4.66	16.2%	11.3%	2.7%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	199	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	16.6%	12.7%	1.16	5.37
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74