Gus Hughes
P
Fredericksburg Nationals
Age 24
RHP
6'0" / 190 lbs
A
2026 ROS PROJECTION29 act + 57 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143134vR 125
ERA5.53
FIP5.53
K%15.4%
BB%13.1%
K-BB%2.3%
ROS IP57
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 86 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 35 | 0 | 45 | 196 | 42 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 15.9% | 12.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.80 | 5.42 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 35 | 0 | 45 | 196 | 42 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.4% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 2.0% | 3.80 | 3.72 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 15 | 0 | 29 | 133 | 33 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.9 | 18.4% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 2.0% | 5.65 | 3.86 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | WSH | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 37 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.4% | 13.1% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 5.53 | 5.53 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15.4% | 13.1% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 5.53 | 5.53 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 86 | 374 | 70 | 42 | 9 | — | — | 18.7% | 11.4% | 7.4% | 2.5% | 5.57 | 4.97 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 41 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.9% | 12.2% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 5.33 | 5.28 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 43 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.7% | 11.9% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 5.21 | 5.18 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 18 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.9% | 12.2% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 5.33 | 5.28 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 28 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.7% | 11.9% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 5.21 | 5.18 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 46 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.4% | 12.0% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 5.26 | 4.84 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 146 | 102 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.4% | 12.0% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 5.26 | 4.84 | +1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 50 | 0 | 74 | 329 | 56 | 37 | 10 | 0% | 1.5 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.79 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 136 | 0 | 200 | 893 | 151 | 99 | 28 | 0% | 1.5 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.79 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Gus Hughes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.53 | 15.4% | 13.1% | 3.1% | — | 5.23 | 17.3% | 5.2% | 116 | -0.30 | — | — | — |
| Juan Paniagua R 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .262 | 4.62 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 93 | -0.13 | 4.51 | 151 | 91 |
| David Trexler R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.91 | 17.7% | 13.4% | 2.9% | .313 | 4.44 | 18.3% | 4.8% | 31 | -0.47 | 4.44 | 100 | 90 |
| Brett Lockwood R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.51 | 16.2% | 15.5% | 3.3% | .312 | 4.61 | 11.0% | -6.3% | 79 | -0.90 | 4.29 | 132 | 89 |
| Cody Scroggins R 2026 · 5.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.62 | 17.4% | 15.1% | 3.8% | .263 | 4.25 | 18.6% | 4.4% | 59 | -1.37 | 3.67 | 108 | 89 |
| Parker Markel R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.69 | 13.6% | 12.3% | 2.1% | .313 | 3.16 | 15.9% | 6.2% | 61 | -1.53 | 3.16 | 266 | 88 |
| Conner O'Neil R 2026 · 5.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.58 | 12.8% | 13.6% | 3.3% | .340 | 7.24 | 16.4% | 4.1% | 26 | +1.66 | 2.90 | 115 | 88 |
| Billy Seidl R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.87 | 18.3% | 14.2% | 2.8% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 102 | 87 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.59 | 13.6% | 10.6% | 2.4% | .284 | 3.85 | 23.0% | 12.0% | 89 | -0.74 | 3.24 | 172 | 87 |
| Davison Palermo R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.15 | 16.3% | 11.2% | 3.7% | .261 | 4.94 | 19.0% | 6.2% | 108 | -0.21 | 4.15 | 191 | 87 |
| Morgan McSweeney R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.18 | 18.0% | 13.9% | 3.4% | .278 | 4.55 | 17.0% | 5.3% | 107 | -0.63 | 3.94 | 189 | 87 |
| Jake Johansen R 2026 · 5.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.59 | 15.8% | 12.8% | 4.0% | .351 | 4.21 | 13.6% | 3.0% | 114 | -1.38 | 3.69 | 162 | 86 |
| Reece Karalus R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.81 | 15.4% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.74 | 149 | 86 |
| Tanner Duncan R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.45 | 17.5% | 14.8% | 3.6% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 123 | 86 |
| Matt Lollis R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.59 | 18.5% | 12.2% | 2.8% | .237 | 5.05 | 19.2% | 4.7% | 56 | +0.46 | 4.59 | 120 | 86 |
| Michael Mertz R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.12 | 16.1% | 13.9% | 2.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.40 | 133 | 86 |
| Ryan Ledbetter R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.63 | 18.5% | 12.3% | 2.8% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.63 | 124 | 86 |
| Matthew Gorst R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.72 | 16.2% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 199 | 86 |
| Marc Brakeman R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.71 | 18.3% | 13.7% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 156 | 86 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.40 | 15.1% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .229 | 4.26 | 18.7% | 9.1% | 150 | -1.14 | 3.63 | 239 | 86 |
| Cade Denton R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.96 | 15.9% | 11.1% | 3.3% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 127 | 85 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 58 | 16.6% | 12.4% | 1.19 | 5.36 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |