Juan Gonzalez — OGILVIE

Juan GonzalezC Birmingham Barons

Age 25 R/R 5'9" / 195 lbs AA HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION20 act + 122 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.209 / .281 / .318

PA122

HR2

K%30

BB%7

BABIP288

ISO109

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	20	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	42	36	5	1	1	0	2	10	2	0	1	139	225	222	447	83	179	24	5	196	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	42	34	6	1	1	0	4	7	2	0	1	176	300	265	565	88	207	17	10	257	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A	2 teams	—	146	124	21	4	0	1	9	50	10	0	1	169	280	226	506	56	263	34	6	236	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A	2 teams	—	146	120	25	5	0	1	13	36	10	0	1	208	336	275	611	67	279	25	9	288	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	143	121	26	5	0	2	12	48	9	5	0	215	331	306	637	91	333	34	8	288	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	143	116	31	7	0	2	17	34	9	5	0	267	401	379	781	112	358	24	12	360	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	95	83	12	1	0	0	8	42	3	1	2	145	245	157	401	12	286	44	8	195	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	95	80	15	2	0	0	11	29	3	1	2	188	309	212	521	25	288	31	12	255	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	64	59	4	0	0	0	1	26	4	1	0	68	141	68	208		121	41	2	111	-57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	64	58	5	0	0	0	2	18	4	1	0	86	172	86	258		125	28	3	138	-36	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	25	AA	CWS	—	20	17	4	1	0	0	1	8	2	1	1	235	350	294	644	59	444	40	5	245	46	-1	-0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
YTD	25	AA	CWS	—	20	17	4	1	0	0	1	6	2	1	1	235	350	294	644	59	364	30	5	308	94	-0	-0	+0	+0	+1	0.1
ROS	25	AA	CWS	2%	122	110	23	4	1	2	9	36	2	2	1	209	281	318	599	109	285	30	7	269	64	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
ROS	25	MLB	CWS	2%	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						286	50	0	257	55	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	25	AA	CWS	—	22	19	4	1	0	0	1	9	2	1	1	211	318	263	581	53	400	41	5	246	47	-1	-0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
TOT	25	AA	CWS	—	142	127	27	5	1	2	10	44	4	3	2	213	291	315	606	102	305	31	7	266	62	-6	-0	+0	+3	+4	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	CWS	31%	240	217	46	8	1	5	17	69	4	4	1	212	282	327	609	115	286	29	7	278	71	-8	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.4
2028	27	MLB	CWS	42%	298	269	59	11	2	6	22	84	5	5	1	219	291	342	633	123	287	28	7	281	73	-9	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.5
2029	28	MLB	CWS	48%	337	302	66	12	2	7	26	95	6	6	1	219	293	341	634	123	287	28	8	282	74	-10	+1	-1	+6	+10	0.6
2030	29	MLB	CWS	49%	353	317	68	12	2	7	27	100	6	5	1	215	289	331	620	117	286	28	8	281	74	-11	+1	-1	+6	+10	0.5
2027	26	MLB	CWS	31%	74	68	14	3	0	1	5	21	1	1	0	206	270	294	564	88	287	28	7	265	61	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2028	27	MLB	CWS	42%	125	113	25	4	1	3	9	35	2	2	1	221	290	354	644	133	288	28	7	269	64	-5	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.1
2029	28	MLB	CWS	48%	161	145	31	6	1	3	12	45	3	3	1	214	287	331	619	117	287	28	7	271	65	-6	+0	-0	+3	+5	0.1
2030	29	MLB	CWS	49%	174	156	34	6	1	4	13	49	3	3	1	218	291	346	637	128	287	28	7	270	65	-7	+0	-1	+3	+5	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	536	484	104	19	3	11	39	151	9	9	3	215	286	335	620	120	286	28	7	270	64	-22	+1	-1	+10	+15	0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	587	126	23	4	13	47	183	11	11	4	215	285	334	619	119	286	28	7	270	64	-26	+1	-1	+12	+18	0.3
Career	—			—	1840	1638	330	58	9	30	133	560	51	29	9	201	282	303	585	101	282	30	7	265	61	-81	+2	-2	+33	+52	0.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	116	20	3	11	47	198	18	10	3	200	281	302	583	102	280	30	7	265	61	-29	+1	-1	+12	+18	0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	20	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	42	34	6	1	1	0	4	7	2	0	1	176	300	265	565	88	207	17	10	257	55	-2	-0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2022	21	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	103	84	17	3	0	1	9	27	7	0	1	202	330	274	604	71	271	26	9	283	75	-3	-0	—	—	+3	-0.0
2022	21	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	43	36	8	2	0	0	4	9	3	0	0	222	349	278	627	56	296	21	9	302	89	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2023	22	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	143	116	31	7	0	2	17	34	9	5	0	267	401	379	781	112	358	24	12	360	134	+5	+1	—	—	+4	1.1
2024	23	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	95	80	15	2	0	0	11	29	3	1	2	188	309	212	521	25	288	31	12	255	53	-5	-1	—	—	+3	-0.3
2025	24	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	64	58	5	0	0	0	2	18	4	1	0	86	172	86	258		125	28	3	138	-36	-10	+0	—	—	+2	-0.8

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	538	11	9	216	286	335	+10	+8	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	14	11	216	286	335	+11.9	+9.9	1.1	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Gonzalez (OGILVIE)	25	—	—	—	—	213/291/315	102	305	2	3	31%	7%	62	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Maverick Handley 2023 · AA	25	38	44→40	50	44	193/277/309	116	270	12	12	32%	8%	65	-0.7	203/293/294	91	284	8	11	29%	9%	67	-0.5	196/291/271	75	277	5	10	28%	10%	57	-0.6
✕Sean Jamieson 2014 · A	25	42→43	43→45	50	42	207/270/323	116	273	10	12	27%	6%	63	-0.8	226/283/329	103	310	8	9	28%	6%	70	-0.3	228/286/321	93	317	7	7	29%	6%	66	-0.3
✕Drake Osborn 2023 · A	25	39	44→45	49→40	42	198/262/310	112	269	11	6	30%	7%	57	-1.2	190/247/298	108	260	12	4	31%	6%	47	-1.9	181/237/285	104	244	12	2	30%	6%	37	-1.2
✕Kyle Datres 2021 · A	25	39→40	45→50	51→55	41	198/264/325	127	271	12	15	31%	6%	62	-0.9	206/284/345	139	284	16	22	32%	8%	76	+0.1	198/283/340	141	269	18	27	32%	8%	73	-0.1
✕JJ Schwarz 2021 · A	25	38	40→50	48→30	43	190/254/280	90	264	9	6	30%	7%	46	-2.0	212/278/349	137	295	17	3	32%	8%	74	-0.1	203/274/342	139	279	18	1	32%	9%	67	-0.3
✕Andres Sosa 2023 · A	25	38	42→40	52→45	46	187/288/295	108	267	9	9	31%	9%	66	-0.6	194/280/284	90	288	7	7	32%	8%	59	-1.1	177/267/253	76	271	5	4	33%	7%	42	-0.8
✕J.E. Cruz 2006 · A	25	38→48	42→45	52→45	43	192/260/290	98	265	10	12	30%	7%	51	-1.7	209/280/310	101	283	7	8	27%	8%	64	-0.8	206/280/308	102	277	6	6	26%	8%	62	-0.6
✕Edgar Cabral 2021 · A	25	42	43→40	47→30	41	209/266/319	110	288	11	6	31%	7%	61	-1.0	198/262/288	90	315	7	8	36%	8%	51	-1.7	188/264/255	66	326	0	0	38%	8%	41	-0.4
✕Christian Sepulveda 2023 · A	25	41	46→50	50→55	36	206/261/341	135	291	12	10	32%	5%	65	-0.7	210/273/338	128	287	13	14	30%	5%	69	-0.4	189/260/326	136	245	16	21	29%	4%	59	-0.4
✕Jackson Brennan 2008 · A	25	44→42	42→45	47→50	47	211/303/316	105	285	9	10	27%	8%	77	+0.1	211/299/300	89	300	7	10	29%	9%	71	-0.3	171/289/188	17	273	0	6	32%	12%	37	-0.5
✕Ryan Ortiz 2013 · AA	25	40	43→45	47→40	49	200/288/306	105	271	11	5	29%	10%	68	-0.5	201/291/297	96	282	8	4	29%	10%	67	-0.5	190/289/275	85	269	6	0	29%	11%	57	-0.6
✕Jeferson Morales 2023 · A	24	38→45	47→50	49→50	43	195/276/331	137	262	14	9	30%	7%	69	-0.4	215/289/349	134	277	13	9	26%	7%	79	+0.3	221/296/357	136	275	13	8	23%	7%	81	+0.2
✕Nick Vickerson 2014 · A	25	36	42→40	49→50	47	183/268/285	102	256	10	13	31%	9%	54	-1.4	203/302/300	97	289	8	11	29%	11%	72	-0.2	190/312/271	81	272	7	11	29%	13%	66	-0.4
✕Bryan Holaday 2012 · AA	24	41	41→45	48→40	40	201/257/296	95	274	9	7	29%	6%	51	-1.7	214/263/302	88	270	7	5	23%	5%	55	-1.4	223/289/353	130	256	14	2	19%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Dusty Brown 2007 · AA	25	41	43→45	44→30	43	205/258/311	106	264	11	5	26%	6%	55	-1.4	224/282/344	120	300	12	3	28%	7%	74	-0.1	228/291/341	113	307	12	0	28%	7%	74	-0.1
✕Quincy McAfee 2023 · AA	25	38	43→45	42→45	46	189/279/295	106	260	11	6	30%	9%	62	-0.9	198/275/331	133	251	15	10	27%	7%	69	-0.4	185/264/327	142	224	17	12	25%	7%	61	-0.5
✕Jake Lemmerman 2014 · AA	25	43→50	41→45	52→45	47	208/287/310	101	285	9	10	28%	8%	68	-0.5	196/265/303	107	280	10	9	32%	8%	56	-1.3	146/216/244	98	209	10	4	34%	8%	19	-1.6
✕Vito Friscia 2021 · A	24	43	40→45	49→40	42	208/266/303	94	290	7	5	30%	7%	56	-1.3	208/289/325	117	317	12	4	35%	9%	72	-0.2	195/284/314	119	296	12	2	35%	10%	66	-0.3
✕Julio E. Rodriguez 2022 · AA	25	41	43→50	48→30	40	207/256/310	103	267	12	6	27%	5%	54	-1.4	205/274/339	134	286	18	4	33%	8%	69	-0.4	185/255/317	132	254	19	1	34%	8%	54	-0.5
✕Willie MacIver 2022 · AA	25	35→33	44→45	51→55	37	184/244/295	111	265	12	16	35%	6%	46	-2.0	200/274/327	127	297	14	15	35%	8%	67	-0.5	225/305/348	123	321	11	18	31%	8%	83	+0.3