Sam Brown

1B Harrisburg Senators

Age 25 L/L 6'2" / 210 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #944MiLBFA 2034

ETA2029FG ETA2027MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	23	AAWSH	509	.263/.364/.392	8	3	95	—	.255/.332/.377
2026	24	AAWSH	371	.247/.353/.392	9	0	76	—	.218/.296/.329
2027PROJ2% MLB	25	MLBWSH	6	.214/.291/.317	0	0	74	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	26	MLBWSH	109	.216/.293/.325	2	1	76	-0.2
2029PROJ42% MLB	27	MLBWSH	159	.216/.293/.326	3	1	77	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$3M2032Ext$5M2033Ext$7M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Chase%81

BB%78

wRC+60

K%59

wOBA53

Whiff%52

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsDanny Hayes (age 25) · Ernie De La Trinidad (age 25) · Jeremy Vasquez (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†74

AVG/OBP/SLG.214 / .291 / .317

PA6

HR0

K%33

BB%17

BABIP285

ISO112

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	22	AA	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	505	440	94	23	2	4	44	105	12	5	0	214	302	302	605	89	266	21	9	276	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	509	434	114	20	6	8	61	89	8	3	1	263	364	392	756	129	309	17	12	340	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	371	316	78	19	0	9	50	85	2	0	1	247	353	392	746	146	307	23	13	336	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	22	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	505	452	86	20	2	3	32	131	12	5	0	190	262	263	525	73	246	26	6	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	509	451	115	20	7	7	44	109	8	3	1	255	332	377	709	122	309	21	9	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	371	331	72	16	0	7	35	104	2	0	1	218	296	329	626	112	289	28	9	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	505	452	86	20	2	3	32	131	12	5	0	190	262	263	525	73	255	26	6	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA RAW	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	505	440	94	23	2	4	44	105	12	5	0	214	302	302	605	89	266	21	9	276	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	509	451	115	20	7	7	44	109	8	3	1	255	332	377	709	122	317	21	9	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	—	509	434	114	20	6	8	61	89	8	3	1	263	364	392	756	129	309	17	12	340	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	371	331	72	16	0	7	35	104	2	0	1	218	296	329	626	112	291	28	9	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	—	371	316	78	19	0	9	50	85	2	0	1	247	353	392	746	146	307	23	13	336	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	505	456	86	20	2	3	32	131	12	5	0	189	262	261	523	72	246	26	6	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	509	452	115	20	7	7	44	109	8	3	1	254	332	376	708	122	309	21	9	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	371	331	72	16	0	7	35	104	2	0	1	218	296	329	626	112	289	28	9	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	22	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	505	456	86	20	2	3	32	131	12	5	0	189	262	261	523	72	246	26	6	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	509	452	115	20	7	7	44	109	8	3	1	254	332	376	708	122	309	21	9	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	371	331	72	16	0	7	35	104	2	0	1	218	296	329	626	112	289	28	9	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	WSH	2%	380	341	73	15	2	6	32	102	4	3	1	214	291	319	610	105	286	27	8	277	74	-12	+0	+0	-7	+8	-0.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	25	MLB CTX	WSH	2%	6	5	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	214	291	317	608	103	285	33	17	277	74	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	31%	351	314	69	14	2	6	30	93	4	3	1	216	293	327	620	110	286	26	9	281	76	-10	+0	+0	-6	+8	-0.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	WSH	42%	379	339	73	15	2	6	33	100	4	3	1	217	293	328	621	111	285	26	9	282	77	-10	+0	+0	-7	+8	-0.9
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	31%	109	98	20	4	0	2	9	29	1	1	0	216	293	325	618	109	285	27	8	281	76	-3	+0	+0	-2	+2	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	WSH	42%	159	142	31	6	1	3	14	42	2	1	0	216	293	326	619	110	285	26	9	281	77	-4	+0	+0	-3	+3	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	268	240	51	10	1	5	23	71	3	2	0	212	289	325	614	113	277	26	9	281	73	-7	+0	+0	-5	+6	-0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	582	123	24	2	12	56	172	7	5	0	211	288	321	610	110	275	26	9	281	73	-18	+1	+0	-12	+14	-1.5
Career	—	MLE		—	2435	2173	477	98	15	34	201	623	34	16	5	220	296	325	621	106	288	26	8	277	73	-30	+0	+0	-19	+23	-2.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	580	127	26	4	9	54	166	9	4	1	219	295	324	620	105	287	26	8	277	73	-19	+0	+0	-12	+14	-1.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Dan Johnson'05-'15 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,625 PA	2.4	1,625	57	1	226*	330*	401*	-30	-3	2.2	2.8
/162	664	23	0	-12.2	-1.2	0.9	pk7: 3
#3Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.4	275	5	2	218	291	329	-5	+0	-0.5	-0.2
/162	664	11	5	-11.9	+0.0	-1.2	pk7: 0
#4Rocky Nelson'49-'61 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,555 PA	2.3	1,555	31	7	241*	307*	388*	-27	-8	-1.9	-0.7
/162	664	13	3	-11.6	-3.5	-0.8	pk7: 0
#5Bud Clancy'24-'34 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,995 PA	3.0	1,995	12	19	250*	300*	372*	-36	+2	-1.9	-1.1
/162	664	4	6	-11.8	+0.6	-0.6	pk7: -0
#6Fritz Mollwitz'13-'19 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,904 PA	2.9	1,904	1	70	242*	287*	361*	-34	-8	-5.1	-5.1
/162	664	0	24	-11.8	-2.8	-1.8	pk7: -5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Sam Brown (OGILVIE)	25	40→50	40	40	60	213/289/316	104	286	5	2	27%	9%	74	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Danny Hayes 2016 · AA	25	45→46	41→45	40→30	51	216/296/321	105	289	8	2	26%	10%	77	-0.3	208/282/345	137	286	15	2	30%	9%	78	-0.3	189/263/343	154	254	19	0	32%	9%	68	-0.6
✕Ernie De La Trinidad 2021 · AA	25	45→53	40	39→40	45	219/284/307	88	279	8	5	24%	7%	69	-0.9	223/285/332	109	309	11	8	30%	5%	76	-0.4	221/285/327	106	308	11	5	30%	5%	72	-0.4
✕Jeremy Vasquez 2021 · AA	25	46→47	39→45	41→30	48	219/287/309	90	282	6	4	24%	8%	70	-0.8	214/276/311	97	275	8	3	24%	8%	67	-1.1	208/271/301	94	264	8	1	23%	8%	61	-0.9
✕Bryce Ball 2023 · AA	25	45→50	44→45	38→30	49	215/296/338	123	302	11	2	31%	10%	81	-0.1	197/267/308	111	302	10	3	35%	8%	63	-1.3	167/239/270	103	263	9	1	38%	8%	42	-1.4
✕Mike Papi 2018 · AAA	25	44→48	44→45	44→45	49	216/293/330	114	281	12	6	26%	9%	78	-0.3	219/293/330	111	301	10	6	28%	9%	78	-0.3	206/288/313	107	297	8	1	31%	10%	70	-0.3
✕Conrad Gregor 2017 · AA	25	43→53	43→45	45→40	50	212/281/331	118	256	10	3	21%	8%	74	-0.6	210/279/330	120	265	12	8	24%	8%	73	-0.6	236/312/388	151	288	17	12	23%	9%	95	+0.2
✕Carson Taylor 2024 · AA	25	43→49	43→45	48→40	46	216/280/322	106	281	12	3	27%	8%	71	-0.8	225/303/345	120	295	13	5	26%	9%	85	+0.2	221/306/337	116	289	13	3	26%	10%	83	+0.1
✕Chantz Mack 2016 · AA	25	43→46	42→45	44→45	44	210/271/316	106	282	9	6	28%	7%	66	-1.1	215/289/323	108	294	11	5	28%	9%	75	-0.5	212/293/317	105	285	12	3	28%	10%	72	-0.4
✕Sawyer Carroll 2011 · AA	25	48→55	41→45	42→45	46	229/291/334	105	310	7	6	28%	8%	78	-0.3	221/279/346	125	279	12	9	24%	7%	76	-0.4	215/270/350	135	261	14	11	23%	7%	70	-0.7
✕Bligh Madris 2021 · AA	25	45→48	42→50	42→50	42	219/267/325	106	286	10	5	26%	6%	66	-1.1	226/287/348	122	294	11	7	25%	7%	79	-0.2	219/286/346	126	287	12	8	26%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Carlos Franco 2017 · AA	25	46→49	40→45	42→45	43	219/276/308	89	307	7	5	30%	7%	65	-1.2	217/268/341	124	323	15	3	35%	6%	71	-0.8	209/258/344	135	308	18	1	37%	6%	66	-0.9
✕D.J. Hicks 2016 · AA	26	43→46	43→45	40→30	45	213/275/324	110	288	10	3	29%	8%	70	-0.9	215/275/303	88	303	6	5	29%	7%	64	-1.3	213/273/286	73	303	4	2	29%	7%	57	-1.5
✕Grant Lavigne 2024 · AA	24	44→50	44→45	45	46	214/294/332	118	307	11	4	32%	9%	79	-0.2	214/295/340	126	309	13	8	32%	9%	82	-0.0	202/291/326	124	293	13	9	33%	9%	76	-0.4
✕Stefan Welch 2014 · AA	25	42→43	44→45	45→40	44	211/277/327	117	279	13	5	28%	7%	72	-0.7	204/279/316	112	284	11	5	30%	8%	70	-0.8	180/264/285	106	254	10	1	31%	8%	57	-1.2
✕Chase Calabuig 2021 · AA	25	48→56	37→40	45	49	225/300/298	73	307	5	8	26%	9%	73	-0.6	230/293/328	98	278	8	5	19%	8%	77	-0.3	237/299/340	103	277	9	3	17%	7%	78	-0.1
✕Brendon Sanger 2019 · AA	25	42	43→45	41→45	46	208/276/318	109	276	11	5	28%	8%	69	-0.9	191/261/300	109	279	12	7	34%	8%	60	-1.6	145/223/242	97	216	12	4	37%	7%	31	-2.5
✕Jim Gallagher 2011 · AA	25	50→54	44→45	43→45	47	244/300/362	118	295	10	5	21%	7%	87	+0.4	223/285/319	96	282	7	7	22%	7%	72	-0.7	210/273/294	84	272	5	7	23%	7%	59	-1.1
✕Victor Cruzado 2017 · AA	25	47→48	40	44→45	49	225/291/322	96	290	7	6	24%	8%	75	-0.5	221/285/316	95	304	8	7	28%	8%	71	-0.8	210/275/290	80	298	8	4	30%	8%	58	-1.0
✕Richard Lane 2006 · AA	26	48	40	42→40	51	230/301/330	100	284	6	5	20%	8%	80	-0.1	207/254/299	92	270	6	6	24%	6%	55	-1.9	178/208/252	74	233	4	2	25%	3%	24	-1.7
✕Dustin Yount 2007 · AA	24	44	44→45	43→40	47	217/292/330	113	290	13	4	29%	9%	78	-0.3	210/282/316	106	283	11	6	28%	8%	71	-0.8	209/276/352	143	307	17	0	36%	8%	72	-0.1

Sam Brown

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps