Connor Burns — OGILVIE

Connor BurnsC Dayton Dragons

Age 25 R/R 6'0" / 190 lbs A+ HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 0 ros · stats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†46

AVG/OBP/SLG.171 / .242 / .285

PA1

HR0

K%35

BB%8

BABIP245

ISO110

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	21	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	78	66	10	1	1	3	11	39	0	0	0	152	273	333	606	182	280	50	14	274	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	73	63	9	2	0	1	8	26	0	0	1	143	239	222	462	79	216	36	11	215	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	278	241	47	11	2	8	34	94	0	0	1	195	295	357	651	162	277	34	12	292	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	91	75	9	2	0	2	16	40	0	0	0	120	275	227	501	107	212	44	18	246	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	226	198	38	9	0	9	18	86	5	0	0	192	276	374	650	182	271	38	8	286	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	78	69	5	0	1	1	8	53	0	0	0	72	169	145	314	72	230	68	10	159	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	73	65	8	2	0	1	6	33	0	0	1	123	197	200	397	77	180	45	8	156	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	278	252	34	7	2	5	23	129	0	0	1	135	207	238	445	103	234	46	8	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	91	81	7	2	0	1	10	48	0	0	0	86	187	148	335	62	195	53	11	174	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	226	203	29	7	0	6	13	109	5	0	0	143	213	266	479	123	230	48	6	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	78	69	5	0	1	1	8	53	0	0	0	72	169	145	314	72	250	68	10	159	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	—	78	66	10	1	1	3	11	39	0	0	0	152	273	333	606	182	280	50	14	274	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	351	317	42	9	2	6	29	162	0	0	2	132	205	230	435	98	237	46	8	191	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	351	304	56	13	2	9	42	120	0	0	2	184	283	329	612	145	264	34	12	276	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	317	284	35	8	0	7	23	158	5	0	0	123	202	225	427	102	228	50	7	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	317	273	47	11	0	11	34	126	5	0	0	172	276	333	609	161	257	40	11	275	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	78	70	5	0	1	1	8	53	0	0	0	71	169	143	312	71	230	68	10	159	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	351	319	42	9	2	6	29	162	0	0	2	132	205	229	434	97	223	46	8	191	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	317	286	35	8	0	7	23	158	5	0	0	122	202	224	426	101	220	50	7	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	351	319	42	9	2	6	29	162	0	0	2	132	205	229	434	97	223	46	8	191	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	317	286	35	8	0	7	23	158	5	0	0	122	202	224	426	101	220	50	7	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CIN	0%	367	333	56	11	1	8	28	128	3	5	1	169	240	278	518	109	244	35	8	236	46	-23	+1	+0	+7	+8	-0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	25	MLB CTX	CIN	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	171	242	285	527	114	245	0	0	240	46	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CIN	30%	277	251	44	9	1	6	21	95	3	3	1	174	245	291	536	117	247	34	8	244	51	-16	+0	+0	+5	+6	-0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	CIN	42%	328	297	52	10	1	7	25	111	3	4	1	177	248	294	542	117	249	34	8	246	53	-18	+0	+0	+6	+7	-0.5
2028	26	MLB CTX	CIN	30%	84	77	13	3	0	2	6	29	1	1	0	176	247	298	546	122	248	35	7	247	51	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	CIN	42%	137	124	21	4	0	3	11	46	1	2	0	179	250	302	552	123	250	34	8	250	53	-8	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	221	201	34	7	0	5	17	75	2	3	0	169	241	279	520	109	238	34	8	249	34	-13	+1	+0	+4	+5	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	591	101	21	0	15	50	221	6	9	0	171	243	283	525	112	240	34	8	249	34	-37	+2	+0	+12	+14	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	1601	1445	217	44	6	32	125	667	13	10	5	150	224	255	480	105	244	42	8	218	34	-51	+1	+0	+15	+19	-1.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	88	18	2	13	51	271	5	4	2	150	224	254	478	104	244	42	8	218	34	-38	+1	+0	+12	+14	-1.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jeff Mathislast yr '20 career totals — 15 seasons, 3,003 PA	4.5	3,003	53	12	194	253	300	+54	+136	11.2	10.8
/162	664	12	3	+11.9	+30.1	2.5	pk7: 10
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.3	222	5	3	176	245	294	+4	+4	-0.2	-0.1
/162	664	15	8	+11.9	+12.0	-0.7	pk7: 0
#5Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Connor Burns (OGILVIE)	25	20	50	40	35	168/238/276	108	244	5	3	35%	8%	46	-1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Brandon Lewis 2024 · AA	25	33→34	48→50	44→30	35	183/235/318	135	263	18	3	37%	5%	54	-2.0	180/234/293	113	281	14	4	39%	6%	47	-2.5	140/196/249	109	217	16	0	43%	6%	23	-1.4
✕Grant Koch 2022 · AA	25	31	44→45	42→30	41	170/225/281	111	217	13	3	28%	6%	41	-3.0	195/254/289	94	290	9	4	34%	7%	54	-2.0	187/247/259	72	292	7	0	36%	6%	41	-0.7
✕Matt Spring 2010 · AA	25	36	47→50	44→45	38	190/241/322	133	262	15	3	33%	6%	57	-1.8	186/238/320	134	279	15	4	38%	6%	55	-1.9	161/211/302	141	234	18	0	39%	5%	40	-1.0
✕McCarthy Tatum 2022 · AA	26	33→25	41→50	45→50	35	170/234/264	94	274	10	6	40%	6%	41	-3.0	198/254/313	115	283	11	10	33%	5%	60	-1.6	196/248/320	125	268	11	11	30%	4%	56	-0.6
✕Mateo Gil 2024 · AA	24	37→33	44→45	45	38	192/239/311	120	269	12	6	33%	6%	53	-2.1	190/231/300	110	273	11	6	33%	5%	47	-2.5	156/185/252	96	223	10	3	35%	3%	16	-2.5
✕Toby Welk 2022 · AA	25	39→34	43→45	48→45	42	194/261/307	112	266	11	9	30%	7%	61	-1.5	204/263/312	108	293	10	7	32%	7%	63	-1.4	195/242/309	114	278	11	0	33%	5%	53	-0.6
✕Drake Osborn 2024 · A	26	30	47→50	43→40	39	172/228/297	126	219	16	4	30%	6%	47	-2.6	199/253/294	95	277	9	5	30%	5%	55	-2.0	220/268/296	77	308	5	3	29%	5%	57	-0.8
✕Connor Kaiser 2022 · AA	25	37	43→45	47→50	44	188/256/297	109	258	11	5	31%	8%	57	-1.8	196/270/312	116	292	12	14	34%	9%	65	-1.2	182/266/286	104	281	10	16	36%	9%	56	-1.0
✕Wil Dalton 2022 · AA	24	34	45	44→50	39	180/239/303	123	260	14	6	36%	7%	52	-2.2	187/251/304	117	303	12	10	40%	6%	57	-1.8	143/214/256	113	250	12	12	45%	6%	31	-1.4
✕Jorge Saez 2017 · AA	26	38	45	44→30	41	194/252/312	118	271	13	4	33%	7%	59	-1.7	207/272/331	124	290	15	5	32%	8%	70	-0.8	189/263/302	114	258	16	2	32%	9%	59	-0.5
✕Cole Leonida 2014 · A	25	35	46→45	42→40	36	182/246/302	121	289	15	4	41%	6%	55	-2.0	205/277/329	124	293	12	7	32%	8%	72	-0.7	189/275/314	125	256	10	4	28%	10%	65	-0.4
✕Marty Bechina 2022 · AAA	25	35→34	45	48→45	31	182/230/307	125	291	13	8	41%	4%	49	-2.4	193/265/309	116	308	12	9	39%	7%	63	-1.3	170/257/275	104	275	11	8	39%	8%	50	-1.6
✕Joe Cronin 2019 · AA	25	37	40→45	45→50	44	180/271/269	89	284	8	7	36%	9%	57	-1.8	194/276/296	102	294	9	11	34%	8%	64	-1.3	166/256/268	102	246	9	13	34%	9%	49	-1.2
✕Matt Winn 2018 · AAA	25	36→34	44→45	45→30	37	182/240/297	115	288	13	3	40%	7%	51	-2.3	178/238/291	113	331	11	3	46%	7%	49	-2.4	149/210/263	114	289	11	0	50%	7%	29	-1.4
✕Tate Blackman 2019 · A	24	37→34	44→45	43→40	40	187/258/300	112	284	13	5	37%	7%	59	-1.7	178/247/266	88	317	9	5	43%	7%	47	-2.6	126/203/175	49	253	5	1	48%	7%	10	-2.9
✕Edwin Díaz 2021 · AA	25	37→33	46→50	49→40	38	187/250/318	131	284	13	5	37%	7%	59	-1.6	177/231/308	131	296	16	5	44%	6%	50	-2.3	156/227/293	137	222	18	5	38%	7%	44	-1.2
✕Jarek Cunningham 2015 · AA	25	39	46→50	45	38	201/251/332	131	263	14	7	29%	5%	63	-1.4	205/262/334	129	300	12	7	34%	6%	68	-1.0	176/241/307	131	278	11	4	38%	7%	51	-1.2
✕Garrett Wolforth 2023 · AA	25	34	45	44→40	34	169/234/292	123	296	13	4	45%	7%	48	-2.5	190/244/293	103	310	10	7	39%	6%	51	-2.2	168/210/248	80	265	7	6	38%	4%	26	-1.4
✕Austin Rei 2019 · AA	25	39	40	40	41	191/267/285	94	278	7	4	32%	7%	59	-1.7	196/266/289	93	304	8	7	35%	7%	59	-1.7	129/206/190	61	210	4	0	38%	8%	11	-1.0
✕Cody Morissette 2024 · AA	24	35→31	46→45	44→55	40	187/242/313	126	243	15	5	30%	6%	55	-1.9	190/243/309	119	252	13	15	29%	6%	55	-2.0	184/241/305	121	240	14	19	29%	6%	51	-1.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps