Zach Murray — OGILVIE

Zach Murray P Daytona Tortugas

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 195 lbs A

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 19 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.59

FIP4.59

K%19.3%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%10.6%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	10	4	31	141	23	10	3	40%	3.1	12.1%	8.4%	3.7%	2.7%	5.74	4.61	—
2025	23	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	10	4	31	141	23	10	3	40%	3.1	12.1%	8.4%	3.7%	2.7%	5.74	4.61	—
2025	23	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	10	4	31	141	23	10	3	40%	3.1	16.3%	7.1%	9.2%	2.1%	5.74	3.83	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CIN	18	0	19	80	15	7	2	0%	1.1	19.3%	8.7%	10.6%	3.0%	4.59	4.59	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CIN	27	0	28	119	24	10	4	0%	1.0	20.2%	8.7%	11.4%	3.0%	4.54	4.52	+0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	CIN	11	0	12	51	10	4	2	0%	1.1	20.2%	8.7%	11.4%	3.0%	4.54	4.52	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	12	51	10	4	2	0%	1.1	20.1%	8.7%	11.4%	3.0%	4.54	4.14	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	166	66	33	0%	1.1	20.1%	8.7%	11.4%	3.0%	4.54	4.14	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		10	4	31	141	17	12	4	40%	3.1	12.1%	8.4%	3.7%	2.7%	5.74	4.61	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	26	200	900	109	75	24	40%	3.1	12.1%	8.4%	3.7%	2.7%	5.74	4.61	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach Murray (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	19.3%	8.7%	3.0%	—	4.52	20.2%	11.4%	28	-0.07	—	—	—
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	89
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	83
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	83
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	82
Ryan Drese R 2001 · 3.58 FIP	25	SW	3.58	16.1%	8.7%	1.3%	.273	4.20	12.8%	5.2%	391	+0.62	3.58	557	79
Nathanael Santiago R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP-	3.44	20.3%	11.4%	1.1%	.286	3.58	23.2%	10.9%	71	+0.14	2.49	138	79
Juan Gutierrez R 2007 · 3.96 FIP	24	SW	3.96	17.2%	4.3%	3.2%	.314	3.83	20.4%	12.6%	128	-0.13	2.67	379	79
Darrell Rasner R 2006 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP-	4.07	13.3%	6.0%	2.4%	.246	4.56	12.5%	5.2%	138	+0.49	4.07	158	79
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	78
Jose Samayoa R 2016 · 3.44 FIP	26	SW	3.44	16.6%	9.9%	0.9%	.286	3.79	17.3%	9.4%	226	+0.35	3.44	262	78
Trennor O'Donnell R 2024 · 3.45 FIP	23	SW	3.45	18.2%	8.6%	1.5%	.326	6.32	14.2%	0.6%	44	+2.87	3.45	107	78
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	78
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	78
Steven Bruce R 2017 · 3.69 FIP	25	SW	3.69	14.9%	5.0%	2.2%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.8%	94	+0.25	3.69	148	78
Michael King R 2020 · 4.56 FIP	25	SW	4.56	21.5%	9.1%	3.9%	.316	2.74	28.3%	20.8%	219	-1.82	1.97	1,024	77
P.J. Walters R 2010 · 4.93 FIP	25	SW	4.93	17.1%	7.8%	4.2%	.293	5.05	14.1%	5.6%	101	+0.12	3.97	230	77
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	77
Noah Gotsis R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SP-	3.48	16.5%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	4.25	15.9%	8.6%	90	+0.77	3.48	138	77
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	76
David Pauley R 2008 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	16.4%	7.5%	3.0%	.429	4.30	13.8%	7.3%	165	+0.00	3.51	210	76