Alan Espinal — OGILVIE

Alan EspinalC Spokane Indians

Age 24 R/R 6'0" / 214 lbs A+ HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION232 act + 154 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†31

AVG/OBP/SLG.168 / .228 / .252

PA154

HR2

K%36

BB%6

BABIP257

ISO84

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE25

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	22	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	29	27	6	1	0	0	1	10	1	1	0	222	276	259	535	37	353	34	3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	29	27	6	1	0	0	1	10	1	1	0	222	276	259	535	37	353	34	3	250	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A	2 teams	—	278	255	32	5	0	4	11	133	6	7	3	125	180	192	372	67	231	48	4	171	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A	2 teams	—	278	248	43	9	0	4	18	91	6	7	3	173	246	258	504	85	250	33	6	230	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	24	A+	COL	—	232	209	32	4	1	4	18	101	2	4	4	153	227	239	466	86	262	44	8	208	17	-22	-1	+0	+4	+7	-1.2
YTD	24	A+	COL	—	232	199	44	6	1	6	28	72	2	4	4	221	323	352	675	131	306	31	12	305	92	-2	-1	+0	+4	+7	0.8
ROS	24	A+	COL	0%	154	142	24	4	1	2	9	56	2	3	2	168	228	252	480	84	260	36	6	226	31	-12	-0	+0	+3	+4	-0.5
ROS	24	MLB	COL	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						279	0	0	233	37	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	24	A+	COL	—	233	210	32	4	1	4	18	101	2	4	4	152	226	238	464	86	259	43	8	208	17	-22	-1	+0	+4	+7	-1.2
TOT	24	A+	COL	—	386	351	56	8	2	6	27	157	4	7	6	159	227	245	472	85	260	41	7	215	23	-34	-1	+0	+7	+11	-1.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	COL	30%	308	283	51	9	1	6	19	106	3	5	2	180	239	283	522	102	263	34	6	237	40	-21	+0	+0	+6	+9	-0.7
2028	26	MLB	COL	44%	364	333	61	11	1	7	24	122	4	6	3	183	247	285	532	102	265	34	7	245	45	-22	+0	+0	+7	+10	-0.6
2027	25	MLB	COL	30%	93	86	16	3	0	2	6	32	1	1	1	186	247	291	538	105	282	34	6	247	47	-6	-0	+0	+2	+3	-0.2
2028	26	MLB	COL	44%	161	148	30	5	1	4	10	54	2	3	1	203	263	331	594	128	285	34	6	254	53	-9	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	255	235	46	8	1	6	16	86	3	4	2	196	256	315	571	119	278	34	6	251	51	-14	+0	+0	+5	+7	-0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	599	117	20	3	15	41	219	8	10	5	195	257	314	570	119	277	34	6	251	51	-36	+0	+0	+12	+18	-0.6
Career	—			—	1133	1040	174	30	3	19	64	427	16	22	10	167	227	257	483	89	257	38	6	216	23	-98	+0	+0	+20	+32	-4.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	597	100	17	2	11	37	245	9	13	6	168	227	258	485	90	257	38	6	216	23	-56	+0	+0	+12	+18	-2.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	22	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	29	27	6	1	0	1	10	1	1	0	222	276	259	535	37	353	34	3	250	49	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2025	23	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	257	229	42	8	4	17	83	6	7	3	183	258	271	529	87	262	32	7	241	43	-17	+0	—	—	+7	-0.9
2025	23	INTL	Criollos de Caguas	—	21	19	1	1	0	1	8	0	0	0	53	100	105	205	53	91	38	5	94	-70	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jeff Mathislast yr '20 career totals — 15 seasons, 3,003 PA	15	3,003	53	12	194	253	300	+54	+136	11.3	10.9
	/162	664	12	3	194	253	300	+11.9	+30.1	2.5	pk7: 10
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	256	5	4	185	243	290	+5	+4	-0.5	-0.2
	/162	664	13	10	185	243	290	+11.9	+10.4	-1.2	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alan Espinal (OGILVIE)	24	20	30	45	25	159/227/245	85	260	6	7	41%	7%	23	-1.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Carlos Torres 2016 · A	23	37	38→30	46→50	37	183/224/260	77	252	6	7	30%	5%	27	-3.3	211/252/282	71	285	4	6	26%	5%	43	-2.2	222/252/273	52	290	2	3	23%	3%	37	-1.0
✕Jayson Hernandez 2013 · AA	24	39	39→30	49→30	36	190/233/274	83	280	6	8	33%	5%	34	-2.8	215/261/287	72	286	5	5	25%	4%	50	-1.8	229/273/258	30	292	2	0	21%	3%	43	-0.8
✕Johnny Adams 2019 · A	24	37→33	41→40	46→45	37	186/236/280	94	277	9	6	35%	6%	37	-2.6	183/234/284	101	281	11	7	37%	6%	38	-2.6	152/203/245	92	231	13	5	39%	5%	11	-3.2
✕Rylan Sandoval 2012 · A	24	38	40	44→45	36	184/248/271	87	283	8	5	36%	5%	41	-2.3	200/252/288	88	300	7	7	34%	5%	46	-2.0	201/250/281	80	299	6	6	33%	5%	40	-0.9
✕Roberto Baldoquin 2018 · A	24	42	36→30	43→45	38	202/249/266	64	290	4	8	31%	5%	39	-2.5	210/257/285	75	300	4	7	30%	5%	47	-1.9	205/259/264	59	286	2	4	27%	5%	40	-1.2
✕Cristopher Navarro 2023 · AA	24	38	34→30	46→45	35	183/227/233	50	283	3	6	35%	5%	20	-3.8	189/242/261	72	274	4	6	31%	6%	35	-2.8	168/225/233	65	237	3	2	29%	6%	18	-0.8
✕Kenny Diekroeger 2015 · A	24	39	39→40	46→45	36	195/233/272	77	275	8	8	32%	4%	33	-2.9	221/266/304	83	290	7	10	25%	5%	56	-1.3	229/273/296	67	291	5	11	22%	4%	53	-0.7
✕Osmy Gregorio 2022 · A	24	34→41	37→30	48→50	36	171/219/239	68	258	5	9	35%	5%	19	-3.9	201/239/274	73	290	5	13	31%	4%	36	-2.7	199/235/264	65	286	4	15	31%	4%	28	-2.0
✕George Soto 2011 · A	25	34	36→40	44→45	40	169/238/230	61	247	5	8	32%	6%	27	-3.3	190/261/281	91	262	7	8	28%	8%	49	-1.8	163/239/259	97	213	9	7	27%	8%	37	-1.0
✕Chris Okey 2019 · AA	24	34	41→45	48→40	36	174/228/264	89	257	9	5	35%	6%	30	-3.1	192/248/306	114	290	13	4	36%	6%	50	-1.7	203/255/307	104	286	10	2	31%	5%	49	-0.5
✕Austin Rei 2018 · A	24	37	39→40	37→40	38	179/253/269	90	275	6	4	35%	6%	43	-2.2	188/261/280	92	285	7	5	34%	7%	50	-1.8	171/249/254	84	252	8	2	33%	7%	36	-1.0
✕Casey Martin 2023 · A	24	30→31	40	51→50	36	158/209/247	88	227	7	14	33%	5%	18	-3.9	165/218/263	98	256	10	15	38%	5%	26	-3.4	147/202/242	95	231	12	16	41%	6%	12	-2.9
✕Jon Murphy 2013 · A	23	38	38→30	47→50	39	185/237/262	77	264	5	13	31%	6%	33	-2.9	197/249/259	62	309	3	10	35%	6%	37	-2.6	191/245/241	50	305	2	10	36%	6%	27	-1.8
✕Bubba Hollins 2019 · A	23	38	40→30	44→45	43	189/258/273	84	244	8	6	25%	6%	46	-2.0	208/266/289	81	270	5	4	23%	6%	53	-1.5	200/262/272	72	270	4	3	26%	5%	45	-1.0
✕Cameron Garfield 2015 · A	24	41→39	40→45	46→45	36	202/237/295	94	274	7	6	29%	4%	41	-2.3	204/242/290	86	280	6	9	28%	4%	42	-2.3	188/216/263	75	254	6	8	28%	3%	19	-1.3
✕Jay Baum 2017 · A	24	40→38	39→40	45→50	42	195/247/275	81	257	6	11	26%	6%	41	-2.3	201/250/295	94	278	8	11	29%	6%	47	-1.9	172/200/261	90	249	8	12	34%	3%	13	-1.0
✕Beau Seabury 2009 · A	24	38	38→30	44→45	33	183/227/255	72	305	6	6	40%	5%	27	-3.3	198/247/266	68	301	4	5	34%	5%	38	-2.6	198/247/260	63	293	4	3	32%	5%	34	-0.9
✕David Masters 2017 · A	24	34→36	38→45	40	40	171/227/239	69	231	6	4	28%	6%	24	-3.6	188/253/283	95	260	10	2	30%	7%	46	-2.0	194/263/331	137	266	18	1	33%	7%	59	-0.5
✕Pedro Guerrero 2013 · A	24	36	42→40	48→45	32	185/223/288	103	279	9	7	36%	4%	33	-2.9	194/237/288	94	301	9	8	37%	5%	40	-2.4	156/196/209	53	246	7	5	38%	5%	-2	-1.4
✕Dillon Moyer 2015 · A	24	38→39	36→30	47→50	41	181/240/247	66	262	3	10	30%	6%	30	-3.1	160/212/219	59	307	3	8	46%	6%	11	-4.5	93/139/123	29	227	0	5	56%	4%	-47	-4.8