Alan Espinal — OGILVIE

Alan EspinalC Spokane Indians

Age 24 R/R 6'0" / 214 lbs A+ HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION341 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†42

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%40

BB%10

BABIP276

ISO92

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE25

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	22	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	29	27	6	1	0	0	1	10	1	1	0	222	276	259	535	37	353	34	3	250	55	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2025	23	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	257	229	42	8	0	4	17	83	6	7	3	183	258	271	529	87	262	32	7	241	49	-15	+0	—	—	+6	-1.0
2025	23	INTL	Criollos de Caguas	—	21	19	1	1	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	53	100	105	205	53	91	38	5	94	-50	-4	+0	—	—	+0	-0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	23	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	257	235	32	5	0	4	11	117	6	7	3	136	194	209	403	72	227	46	4	177	6	-29	+0	—	—	+6	-2.3
2024	22	INTL MLE	Gigantes de Carolina	—	29	27	6	1	0	0	1	10	1	1	0	222	276	259	535	37	353	34	3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	INTL RAW	Gigantes de Carolina	—	29	27	6	1	0	0	1	10	1	1	0	222	276	259	535	37	353	34	3	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	278	254	35	6	0	4	12	126	6	7	3	138	195	209	404	71	244	45	4	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A RAW	2 teams	—	278	248	43	9	0	4	18	91	6	7	3	173	246	258	504	85	250	33	6	230	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	278	258	35	6	0	4	12	126	6	7	3	136	195	205	400	70	227	45	4	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	278	258	35	6	0	4	12	126	6	7	3	136	195	205	400	70	227	45	4	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	COL	—	341	308	49	8	1	6	27	143	3	9	6	159	234	250	484	91	265	42	8	220	35	-26	-1	+0	+6	+7	-1.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ RAW	COL	—	341	292	69	13	2	8	43	102	3	9	6	236	340	377	717	140	330	30	13	324	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	24	A+ MLE	COL	0%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		262	40	10	230	42	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	24	A+ MLE	COL	—	351	317	50	8	1	6	28	147	3	9	6	158	233	246	479	88	263	42	8	220	35	-27	-1	+0	+6	+8	-1.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	COL	30%	302	275	49	9	1	5	21	105	3	5	3	178	244	273	517	95	267	35	7	243	51	-18	-0	+0	+5	+7	-0.6
2028	26	MLB MLE	COL	44%	359	326	62	12	2	7	26	121	4	6	3	190	258	304	562	113	269	34	7	250	56	-19	+0	+0	+6	+8	-0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	COL	49%	384	349	66	12	2	8	28	127	4	6	3	189	257	304	561	115	270	33	7	254	58	-19	+0	+0	+7	+8	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	COL	30%	92	85	16	3	0	2	6	32	1	2	1	188	250	294	544	106	282	35	7	250	51	-5	+0	+0	+2	+2	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	COL	44%	159	145	30	6	1	4	11	54	2	3	1	207	272	345	617	138	284	34	7	257	56	-8	+0	+0	+3	+3	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	COL	49%	188	170	34	7	1	4	14	62	2	3	2	200	269	324	592	124	285	33	7	261	58	-9	-0	+0	+3	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	439	400	80	16	2	10	31	148	5	8	4	200	266	325	591	125	287	34	7	257	41	-23	+0	+0	+8	+10	-0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	592	119	24	3	15	46	219	7	12	6	201	266	328	594	127	288	34	7	257	41	-34	+0	+0	+12	+14	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	1362	1240	219	40	5	24	89	493	18	25	12	177	242	275	517	98	266	36	7	229	41	-57	-0	+0	+19	+23	-1.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	592	104	19	2	11	42	235	9	12	6	176	241	270	511	95	266	36	6	229	41	-35	-0	+0	+12	+14	-0.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jeff Mathislast yr '20 career totals — 15 seasons, 3,003 PA	4.5	3,003	53	12	194	253	300	+54	+136	11.2	10.8
/162	664	12	3	+11.9	+30.1	2.5	pk7: 10
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.7	440	9	7	188	253	298	+8	+4	-0.3	-0.1
/162	664	13	11	+11.9	+6.0	-0.4	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alan Espinal (OGILVIE)	24	20	30	45	25	172/237/262	90	262	4	5	36%	7%	42	-1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jayson Hernandez 2013 · AA	24	39	39→30	49→30	37	192/235/277	84	280	6	8	33%	5%	43	-2.8	215/262/289	74	286	5	5	25%	4%	56	-1.9	229/274/261	32	293	2	0	21%	3%	51	-0.9
✕Rylan Sandoval 2012 · A	24	39	41→40	44→45	37	190/254/282	92	282	9	5	34%	5%	53	-2.1	207/258/299	92	302	7	7	32%	5%	57	-1.8	210/259/294	84	306	6	6	32%	5%	52	-0.8
✕Nick Meyer 2021 · A	24	36	36→40	52→50	41	176/235/239	63	249	4	15	30%	6%	35	-3.4	212/281/292	80	276	8	14	24%	8%	65	-1.2	205/280/278	73	264	8	16	24%	8%	59	-0.8
✕Roberto Baldoquin 2018 · A	24	42	37→30	43→45	38	201/246/268	67	287	5	8	31%	5%	45	-2.7	214/261/289	75	300	4	7	29%	5%	55	-1.9	212/267/270	58	291	2	4	26%	5%	51	-1.1
✕Andrés Alvarez 2021 · A	24	41→31	37→45	48→50	42	196/261/270	74	275	4	7	29%	7%	52	-2.2	202/269/324	122	288	13	15	33%	8%	68	-1.0	182/251/303	121	254	14	15	33%	8%	55	-1.1
✕Jon Murphy 2013 · A	23	38	38→30	47→50	39	185/237/262	77	264	5	13	31%	6%	40	-3.0	198/251/261	63	306	3	10	34%	6%	46	-2.6	192/247/244	53	300	3	10	35%	6%	37	-1.7
✕David Masters 2017 · A	24	35→37	38→45	40	41	173/231/243	70	232	6	4	28%	6%	35	-3.4	191/256/291	100	260	10	2	29%	7%	55	-1.9	192/262/321	129	263	16	1	32%	7%	61	-0.6
✕Seth Harrison 2016 · A	24	38→43	37→40	46→50	35	184/228/259	75	279	5	14	35%	4%	36	-3.3	206/255/298	92	287	7	12	29%	5%	55	-1.9	206/256/302	96	276	8	12	27%	5%	54	-1.5
✕Kenny Diekroeger 2015 · A	24	37	39→40	46→45	35	188/228/264	76	271	8	8	33%	4%	37	-3.3	220/267/300	80	290	6	10	25%	5%	60	-1.6	233/279/293	60	297	4	11	22%	4%	61	-0.7
✕Dennis Ortega 2021 · A	24	40	39→45	46→45	41	197/243/276	79	257	7	6	26%	5%	46	-2.6	205/256/283	78	310	6	7	34%	6%	53	-2.1	195/246/261	66	302	5	5	35%	6%	40	-0.9
✕Johnny Adams 2019 · A	24	37→32	41→40	46→45	38	185/235/279	94	274	9	6	35%	6%	44	-2.8	181/232/271	90	279	9	7	37%	6%	41	-3.0	149/202/224	75	230	9	5	38%	5%	17	-3.5
✕Tyler Grimes 2013 · A	23	37	42→40	46→40	40	180/259/284	104	282	9	8	37%	8%	55	-1.9	203/277/297	94	309	7	5	34%	7%	65	-1.2	203/279/289	86	310	6	2	34%	7%	62	-0.8
✕Max Burt 2021 · AA	24	39	40→45	44→55	34	195/241/277	82	279	8	6	33%	4%	46	-2.6	200/251/312	112	283	12	16	32%	5%	58	-1.7	190/246/305	114	266	13	21	32%	5%	52	-1.2
✕Grae Kessinger 2022 · AA	24	38→31	42→45	48→50	41	191/251/284	93	257	11	15	30%	6%	52	-2.2	195/269/308	113	260	13	14	29%	8%	64	-1.3	179/261/273	93	244	9	8	29%	9%	52	-0.9
✕Caleb Hamilton 2019 · A	24	35	41→45	45	45	174/251/275	101	255	8	6	33%	9%	50	-2.3	186/255/286	100	272	9	8	33%	8%	53	-2.1	141/235/256	115	206	16	3	39%	10%	39	-1.0
✕Cristopher Navarro 2023 · AA	24	39	35→30	46→45	36	185/230/236	51	281	3	6	34%	5%	31	-3.7	191/245/263	72	274	5	6	30%	6%	44	-2.8	172/230/237	65	240	4	2	28%	6%	31	-0.8
✕Zane Gurwitz 2019 · A	24	41	39→45	48→45	39	199/243/290	92	268	6	7	28%	5%	49	-2.4	205/261/308	103	296	9	6	32%	6%	61	-1.5	197/258/298	101	284	11	4	33%	7%	55	-1.3
✕Raul Siri 2018 · A	23	39	38→40	51→50	42	192/251/271	80	265	6	11	29%	7%	49	-2.4	199/265/283	84	347	5	9	41%	7%	57	-1.8	146/235/232	85	299	4	14	47%	8%	34	-0.6
✕Bubba Hollins 2019 · A	23	38	39→30	44→45	43	187/256/267	80	242	7	6	25%	6%	51	-2.3	209/267/290	81	272	5	4	24%	6%	59	-1.7	204/266/276	72	272	4	3	25%	6%	53	-0.9
✕Chris Okey 2019 · AA	24	34	40→45	48→40	36	174/227/260	85	258	8	5	35%	5%	37	-3.3	193/249/301	108	284	12	4	34%	6%	55	-2.0	205/259/305	100	287	9	2	30%	5%	56	-0.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps