Tyler Mattison
P
Toledo Mud Hens
+0.1
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'4" / 235 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.47
FIP4.47
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%24.6%
BB%12.3%
K-BB%12.3%
IP21
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†6060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 27 | 1 | 40 | 164 | 54 | 19 | 2 | 24.7% | 14.5% | 1.6% | 4.54 | 3.71 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 41 | 5 | 60 | 240 | 91 | 27 | 5 | 30.0% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 2.41 | 3.83 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 37 | 1 | 39 | 172 | 44 | 30 | 4 | 26.3% | 19.3% | 1.4% | 4.38 | 4.10 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 5 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 6 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.59 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | DET | 21 | — | 21 | 89 | 22 | 11 | 2 | 24.6% | 12.3% | 2.7% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | DET | — | — | 27 | 114 | 28 | 17 | 3 | 24.5% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 3.86 | 3.52 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | DET | 21 | — | 21 | 88 | 22 | 11 | 2 | 24.5% | 12.0% | 2.8% | 4.46 | 4.47 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 110 | 7 | 144 | 601 | 164 | 93 | 13 | 27.2% | 15.5% | 2.2% | 3.50 | 3.98 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 153 | 10 | 200 | 835 | 228 | 129 | 18 | 27.2% | 15.5% | 2.2% | 3.50 | 3.98 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Mattison (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 24.6% | 12.3% | 2.7% | — | 4.47 | 24.5% | 12.5% | 21 | +0.00 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.8% | .256 | 4.33 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.08 | 3.88 | 180 | 92 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .292 | 4.93 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +0.96 | 3.84 | 299 | 88 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 88 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.32 | 26.5% | 11.2% | 3.7% | .299 | 4.62 | 23.6% | 11.9% | 58 | +0.30 | 3.86 | 134 | 87 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 84 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 84 |
| Peyton Gray R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 104 | 84 |
| Brooks Kriske R 2025 · 3.48 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.48 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 1.9% | .245 | 4.81 | 28.6% | 16.5% | 41 | +1.33 | 3.04 | 230 | 84 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .273 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.31 | 3.70 | 187 | 83 |
| Logan Boyer R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 25.0% | 12.3% | 2.1% | .267 | 4.91 | 17.9% | 1.6% | 54 | +1.21 | 3.70 | 121 | 83 |
| Kyle Winkler R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.74 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .234 | 3.53 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 43 | -0.21 | 2.96 | 114 | 82 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.41 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.4% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 154 | 82 |
| Kyle Hill R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.93 | 23.6% | 12.2% | 2.3% | .319 | 5.38 | 23.3% | 10.2% | 35 | +1.45 | 3.62 | 156 | 82 |
| Keagan Gillies R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.00 | 21.1% | 13.3% | 1.8% | .306 | 3.65 | 20.1% | 13.5% | 54 | -0.35 | 2.94 | 157 | 82 |
| Layne Henderson R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.01 | 24.9% | 12.7% | 2.6% | .277 | 4.54 | 24.2% | 8.7% | 82 | +0.53 | 3.91 | 233 | 82 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 81 |
| José Cisnero R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.50 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.9% | .367 | 3.92 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.58 | 2.26 | 279 | 81 |
| Maikel Cleto R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.89 | 25.8% | 12.1% | 2.6% | .214 | 3.12 | 25.0% | 15.3% | 55 | -0.77 | 2.59 | 156 | 81 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 80 |
| Dustin Antolin R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.42 | 23.9% | 13.1% | 1.2% | .286 | 4.34 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 50 | +0.92 | 2.94 | 159 | 80 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.