Tyler Mattison — OGILVIE

Tyler Mattison P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 235 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 14 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.59

FIP4.59

K%25.2%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%11.5%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	1	40	164	54	19	2	4%	1.5	24.7%	14.5%	10.1%	1.5%	4.54	3.67	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	1	40	164	54	19	2	4%	1.5	32.9%	11.6%	21.3%	1.2%	4.54	2.47	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	5	60	240	91	27	5	12%	1.5	30.0%	12.6%	17.4%	3.0%	2.41	3.79	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	5	60	240	91	27	5	12%	1.5	30.0%	12.6%	17.4%	3.0%	2.41	3.79	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	5	60	240	91	27	5	12%	1.5	37.9%	11.2%	26.7%	2.1%	2.41	2.50	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	37	1	39	172	44	30	4	3%	1.1	24.8%	16.6%	8.3%	1.5%	4.38	3.90	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	37	1	39	172	44	30	4	3%	1.1	24.8%	16.6%	8.3%	1.5%	4.38	3.90	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	37	1	39	172	44	30	4	3%	1.1	25.6%	17.4%	8.1%	2.3%	4.38	4.48	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	43	0	52	230	62	40	8	0%	1.2	22.4%	15.7%	6.7%	3.8%	3.96	5.29	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	43	0	52	230	62	40	8	0%	1.2	22.4%	15.7%	6.7%	3.8%	3.96	5.29	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	DET	43	0	52	230	62	40	8	0%	1.2	27.0%	17.4%	9.6%	3.5%	3.96	4.94	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	DET	48	0	50	213	53	28	6	0%	1.1	25.0%	13.3%	11.7%	2.8%	4.59	4.60	-0.0
2028	28	MLB MLE	DET	47	0	49	207	51	27	6	0%	1.0	24.7%	13.1%	11.6%	2.9%	4.63	4.67	-0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	DET	20	0	21	89	22	12	3	0%	1.1	25.0%	13.3%	11.7%	2.8%	4.59	4.60	-0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	DET	30	0	31	131	32	17	4	0%	1.0	24.7%	13.1%	11.6%	2.9%	4.63	4.67	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	0	52	220	55	29	6	0%	1.0	24.8%	13.2%	11.7%	2.9%	4.61	4.26	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	211	111	23	0%	1.1	24.8%	13.2%	11.7%	2.9%	4.61	4.26	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		148	7	191	806	206	119	21	5%	1.3	25.6%	14.7%	10.9%	2.6%	3.68	4.22	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		155	7	200	845	217	124	22	5%	1.3	25.6%	14.7%	10.9%	2.6%	3.68	4.22	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Mattison (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	25.2%	13.6%	2.8%	—	4.63	24.9%	11.7%	100	+0.04	—	—	—
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	90
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	86
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	84
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	84
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.42	20.8%	10.2%	92	+0.11	3.89	168	84
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	84
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	83
Zac Leigh R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	28.1%	11.7%	3.0%	.282	4.58	19.9%	3.7%	131	+0.74	3.70	201	83
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	83
Dustin Antolin R 2016 · 3.43 FIP	26	SU	3.43	23.9%	13.1%	1.3%	.286	4.35	16.2%	1.8%	50	+0.92	2.95	159	83
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	83
Jeff Ames R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	26	SU	3.94	25.1%	13.4%	2.3%	.310	4.65	25.4%	10.8%	79	+0.71	3.85	272	82
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	159	82
Brooks Kriske R 2019 · 3.47 FIP	25	SU	3.47	26.1%	12.2%	1.9%	.245	4.95	28.6%	16.5%	41	+1.48	3.15	246	82
Maikel Cleto R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	26	SU	3.79	25.8%	12.1%	2.4%	.214	3.13	25.0%	15.3%	55	-0.66	2.59	156	82
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	81
Jackson Kelley R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SU	3.80	26.5%	13.1%	2.3%	.313	3.65	21.6%	10.7%	165	-0.15	3.21	218	81
Luis Ramirez R 2016 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	24.0%	12.6%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.71	104	81
Trey Benton R 2023 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	23.8%	13.9%	3.0%	.366	2.92	18.1%	7.4%	31	-1.57	2.92	139	80
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	38	24.9%	13.2%	1.11	4.61
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41