Tyler Mattison

P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 235 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	MIX2 levels	41	5	60	2.41	2.50	37.9%	11.2%	—	K 30.0% · BB 12.6% · FIP 3.79
2025	25	MIX4 levels	37	1	39	4.38	4.48	25.6%	17.4%	—	K 25.7% · BB 16.6% · FIP 3.82
2026	26	AAADET	45	0	54	3.81	5.01	26.4%	17.6%	—	K 22.7% · BB 15.8% · FIP 5.21
2027PROJ	27	MLBDET	3	0	3	5.13	5.13	23.2%	15.0%	-0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBDET	10	0	10	5.10	5.13	23.1%	14.5%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsSpencer Bivens (age 28) · Beck Wheeler (age 27) · Cole McDonald (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 114

ERA5.13

FIP5.13

K%23.2%

BB%15.0%

K-BB%8.2%

Proj IP30

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 30 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	1	40	164	54	19	2	4%	1.5	24.7%	14.5%	10.1%	1.5%	4.54	3.67	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	1	40	164	54	19	2	4%	1.5	32.9%	11.6%	21.3%	1.2%	4.54	2.47	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	5	60	240	91	27	5	12%	1.5	30.0%	12.6%	17.4%	3.0%	2.41	3.79	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	5	60	240	91	27	5	12%	1.5	37.9%	11.2%	26.7%	2.1%	2.41	2.50	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	37	1	39	172	44	30	4	3%	1.1	25.7%	16.6%	9.1%	1.5%	4.38	3.82	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	37	1	39	172	44	30	4	3%	1.1	25.7%	16.6%	9.1%	1.5%	4.38	3.82	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	37	1	39	172	44	30	4	3%	1.1	25.6%	17.4%	8.1%	2.3%	4.38	4.48	—
2026	26	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	45	0	54	239	63	42	8	0%	1.2	22.7%	15.8%	6.9%	3.7%	3.81	5.21	—
2026	26	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	45	0	54	239	63	42	8	0%	1.2	22.7%	15.8%	6.9%	3.7%	3.81	5.21	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	Toledo Mud Hens	45	0	54	239	63	42	8	0%	1.2	26.4%	17.6%	8.8%	3.3%	3.81	5.01	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	DET	3	0	3	13	3	2	0	0%	1.0	23.2%	15.0%	8.2%	3.1%	5.13	5.13	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	DET	22	0	23	97	22	14	3	0%	1.0	23.1%	14.5%	8.5%	3.2%	5.10	5.13	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	DET	10	0	10	42	10	6	1	0%	1.0	23.1%	14.5%	8.5%	3.2%	5.10	5.13	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	41	10	6	1	0%	1.1	23.1%	14.5%	8.5%	3.2%	5.10	4.75	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	205	123	20	0%	1.1	23.1%	14.5%	8.5%	3.2%	5.10	4.75	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		150	7	193	815	211	120	21	5%	1.3	25.9%	14.8%	11.1%	2.6%	3.64	4.19	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		156	7	200	846	219	125	22	5%	1.3	25.9%	14.8%	11.1%	2.6%	3.64	4.19	-1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 54 IPFIP 4.94 → 5.21 (+0.27)K% 26.4% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.36%	—	×0.860	22.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.57%	—	×0.900	15.82%
HR / BF /BF	3.35%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.68%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.94 → 5.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 19 IPFIP 3.54 → 3.82 (+0.29)K% 29.9% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.89%	—	×0.860	25.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.39%	—	×0.900	16.55%
HR / BF /BF	1.15%	÷0.872	×1.100	1.45%

Result: FIP 3.54 → 3.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAErie SeaWolves · 11 IPFIP 4.75 → 5.50 (+0.75)K% 22.0% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.95%	—	×0.810	17.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.07%	—	×1.100	18.78%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷1.056	×1.200	2.77%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 4.75 → 5.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 8 IPFIP 5.84 → 7.86 (+2.01)K% 22.5% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.50%	—	×0.770	17.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.00%	—	×1.150	17.25%
HR / BF /BF	5.00%	÷0.850	×1.250	7.35%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 70).

Result: FIP 5.84 → 7.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAErie SeaWolves · 33 IPFIP 1.83 → 2.53 (+0.70)K% 33.8% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.82%	—	×0.810	27.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.100	13.75%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.055	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.83 → 2.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 26 IPFIP 3.30 → 5.43 (+2.13)K% 43.3% → 33.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	43.27%	—	×0.770	33.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.62%	—	×1.150	11.06%
HR / BF /BF	4.81%	÷0.882	×1.250	6.82%

Result: FIP 3.30 → 5.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 33 IPFIP 2.64 → 3.67 (+1.03)K% 33.3% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.740	24.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.32%	—	×1.180	14.54%
HR / BF /BF	1.45%	÷1.279	×1.300	1.47%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 156).

Result: FIP 2.64 → 3.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Tigers · 7 IPFIP 1.48 → 2.55 (+1.08)K% 30.8% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.77%	—	×0.680	20.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.250	9.62%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.990	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 1.48 → 2.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Mattison (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.13	23.2%	15.0%	3.1%	—	5.13	23.1%	8.5%	23	+0.00	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	86
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	86
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	86
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	84
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	83
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	26.4%	14.3%	2.3%	.274	4.80	21.7%	10.2%	69	+0.87	3.84	181	83
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	83
Jake Haberer R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	27	SU	5.24	24.3%	16.0%	4.0%	.324	5.08	16.4%	0.9%	62	-0.16	3.46	183	82
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	81
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	81
Keagan Gillies R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	21.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.306	3.91	20.0%	14.4%	74	-0.11	2.93	177	81
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	81
Scott Dohmann R 2005 · 4.93 FIP	27	SU	4.93	24.5%	12.6%	4.2%	.321	4.69	18.9%	7.5%	96	-0.24	4.28	173	81
Theo Denlinger R 2023 · 4.19 FIP	27	SU	4.19	20.1%	15.1%	1.6%	.266	4.23	15.3%	9.9%	41	+0.04	2.92	140	81
Michael Ynoa R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	23.1%	13.8%	3.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	142	81
Jose De La Torre R 2013 · 5.22 FIP	27	SU	5.22	28.3%	18.9%	3.9%	.308	3.87	17.6%	6.6%	110	-1.35	2.64	141	81
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	81
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	81
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	80
Cole Uvila R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	27	SU	4.06	20.4%	13.2%	1.8%	.360	3.16	20.2%	6.3%	44	-0.90	3.16	155	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	23.1%	14.8%	1.22	5.12
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*