Colton Vincent

C ACL Padres
Age 27 R/R 5'11" / 187 lbs ROK HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038
Overview
ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039
MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202424A+/A/ROKSD237.297/.388/.4110358—.215/.289/.291
202525ASD150.179/.262/.201015—.146/.215/.161
202626ROKSD61.413/.518/.63013120—.327/.411/.510
2027PROJMLE27MLBSD200.196/.256/.2651348-0.1
2028PROJ26% MLB28MLBSD19.193/.254/.2610049-0.1
Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk
wRC+98
wOBA97
Speed92
ISO87
K%58
Z-Con%54
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%
CompsLyle Lin (age 27) · Connor Justus (age 26) · Pat Cantwell (age 27)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 47 proj PA
wRC+†48
AVG/OBP/SLG.195 / .254 / .262
PA47
HR0
K%27
BB%6
ISO68
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -2.9 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-3BATRUN: +0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +0.8 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +1.0 runs (Replacement-level credit)+1REPTotal WAR: -0.10-0.1WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
-0.1-0.12728
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 20
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT30
scouting grade only
POWER20
scouting grade only
EYE30
scouting grade only
SPEED40
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2033
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2038
First FA Year   2039
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202424 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps — 1613 4000 231 00 308438308745 400 1912 359 85 — — — — — —
202424 ALake Elsinore Storm — 6758 14420 8161 00 241343379723 138333 2412 327 46 — — — — — —
202424 ROKACL Padres — 154131 421310 12296 30 321403435838 115396 198 366 60 — — — — — —
202525 ALake Elsinore Storm — 150134 24300 11284 10 179262201463 22224 197 223 5 — — — — — —
202626 ROKACL Padres — 6146 19321 8122 30 4135186301.148 217529 2013 459 120 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202424 A+ MLEFort Wayne TinCaps — 1614 4000 141 00 286375286661 365 256 294 85 — — — — — —
202424 A MLELake Elsinore Storm — 6760 10310 6221 00 167254250504 83274 339 236 46 — — — — — —
202424 ROK MLEACL Padres — 154136 31910 7426 30 228295309604 81294 275 257 60 — — — — — —
202525 A MLELake Elsinore Storm — 150137 20200 8404 10 146215161375 15200 275 175 5 — — — — — —
202626 ROK MLEACL Padres — 6149 16221 5172 30 327411510921 184392 288 346 120 — — — — — —
202424 ROK MLE3 teams — 237210 451120 14688 30 214289286575 71308 296 254 58 — — — — — —
202424 ROK RAW3 teams — 237202 601730 22488 30 297388411799 114380 209 355 58 — — — — — —
202525 A MLELake Elsinore Storm — 150137 20200 8404 10 146215161375 15204 275 175 5 — — — — — —
202525 A RAWLake Elsinore Storm — 150134 24300 11284 10 179262201463 22224 197 223 5 — — — — — —
202626 ROK MLEACL Padres — 6149 16221 5172 30 327411510921 184469 288 346 120 — — — — — —
202626 ROK RAWACL Padres — 6146 19321 8122 30 4135186301.148 217529 2013 459 120 — — — — — —
202424 ROK MLE3 teams — 237213 451120 14688 30 211289282570 70293 296 254 58 — — — — — —
202525 A MLELake Elsinore Storm — 150137 20200 8404 10 146215161375 15200 275 175 5 — — — — — —
202626 ROK MLEACL Padres — 6154 16221 5172 30 296411463874 167392 288 346 120 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202424 ROK MLE3 teams — 237213 451120 14688 30 211289282570 70293 296 254 58 — — — — — —
202525 A MLELake Elsinore Storm — 150137 20200 8404 10 146215161375 15200 275 175 5 — — — — — —
202626 ROK MLEACL Padres — 6154 16221 5172 30 296411463874 167392 288 346 120 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202727 MLB MLESD 0% 200183 36711 12533 31 196256265521 68268 266 239 48 -12 +0 +0 +4 +4 -0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202828 MLB MLESD 26% 7267 13300 4191 10 197258267525 70268 266 241 49 -4 +0 -1 +1 +2 -0.2
202828 MLB CTXSD 26% 1918 4100 150 00 193254261516 68263 265 237 49 -1 +0 -0 +0 +0 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 1918 4100 150 00 222263278541 56308 265 237 48 -1 +0 -0 +0 +0 -0.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650616 1373400 341710 00 222263278541 55308 265 237 48 -39 +0 -6 +12 +14 -2.1
Career— MLE — 567506 1022041 3415616 90 202273263536 61285 286 240 48 -7 +0 -1 +2 +3 -0.3
/ 162G— MLE — 650580 1172351 3917918 100 202273264537 62285 286 240 48 -40 +2 -4 +12 +14 -1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKACL Padres · 61 PAwOBA .455 → .346 (−109)K% 19.7% → 28.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.67%÷1.000×1.440——28.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.11%÷1.000×0.620—×0.9407.64%
HBP% /PA3.28%—×0.720—×0.9402.22%
Singles /BIP38.24%÷1.000×0.820—×0.94029.47%
Doubles /BIP8.82%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9405.97%
Triples /BIP5.88%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9403.98%
Home runs /BIP2.94%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9402.16%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .455 → .346; ISO .217 → .167; BABIP .529 → .392. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALake Elsinore Storm · 150 PAwOBA .219 → .175 (−45)K% 18.7% → 26.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.67%÷0.956×1.360——26.56%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.33%÷0.952×0.690—×0.9705.16%
HBP% /PA2.67%—×0.780—×0.9702.02%
Singles /BIP19.81%÷0.989×0.920×1.011×0.97018.08%
Doubles /BIP2.83%÷1.062×0.830×1.011×0.9702.17%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.910×1.011×0.9700.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.936×0.800—×0.9700.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 98, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 91, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.

Result: wOBA .219 → .175; ISO .022 → .016; BABIP .224 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Padres · 154 PAwOBA .367 → .257 (−110)K% 18.8% → 27.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.83%÷0.990×1.440——27.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.79%÷1.002×0.620—×0.9554.61%
HBP% /PA3.90%—×0.720—×0.9552.68%
Singles /BIP27.45%÷1.014×0.820×1.007×0.95521.36%
Doubles /BIP12.75%÷1.042×0.720×1.007×0.9558.47%
Triples /BIP0.98%÷0.970×0.720×1.007×0.9550.70%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.892×0.780—×0.9550.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 103, 2B 108, 3B 94, K 98, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 19.5 → −4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.

Result: wOBA .367 → .257; ISO .115 → .076; BABIP .396 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ALake Elsinore Storm · 67 PAwOBA .319 → .236 (−84)K% 23.9% → 32.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.88%÷1.002×1.360——32.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.94%÷0.972×0.690—×0.9808.31%
HBP% /PA1.49%—×0.780—×0.9801.14%
Singles /BIP19.05%÷1.036×0.920—×0.98016.57%
Doubles /BIP9.52%÷1.108×0.830—×0.9806.99%
Triples /BIP4.76%÷1.108×0.910—×0.9803.83%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.953×0.800—×0.9800.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 107, 2B 122, 3B 122, K 100, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .319 → .236; ISO .138 → .098; BABIP .333 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 16 PAwOBA .351 → .294 (−58)K% 18.8% → 24.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.75%÷0.982×1.270——24.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.50%÷1.043×0.710—×0.9888.41%
HBP% /PA6.25%—×0.790—×0.9884.88%
Singles /BIP40.00%÷0.997×0.920—×0.98836.46%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷0.973×0.810—×0.9880.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.082×0.850—×0.9880.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.916×0.800—×0.9880.00%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 99, 2B 95, 3B 116, K 96, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .351 → .294; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .400 → .365. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).