Colton Vincent — OGILVIE

Colton VincentC ACL Padres

Age 26 R/R 5'11" / 187 lbs ROK HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION61 act + 7 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†60

AVG/OBP/SLG.143 / .143 / .143

PA7

HR0

K%29

BB%6

BABIP286

ISO64

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	24	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	16	13	4	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	308	438	308	745		400	19	12	359	129	+1	+0	—	—	+0	0.1
2024	24	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	67	58	14	4	2	0	8	16	1	0	0	241	343	379	723	138	333	24	12	327	108	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2024	24	ROK	ACL Padres	—	154	131	42	13	1	0	12	29	6	3	0	321	403	435	838	115	396	19	8	366	134	+6	+1	—	—	+3	1.0
2025	25	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	150	134	24	3	0	0	11	28	4	1	0	179	262	201	463	22	224	19	7	223	37	-11	+0	—	—	+3	-0.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	24	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	16	14	4	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	286	375	286	661		365	25	6	290	82	-0	+0	—	—	+0	0.0
2024	24	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	67	60	11	3	1	0	6	21	1	0	0	183	269	267	535	83	270	31	9	235	45	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2024	24	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	154	136	32	9	1	0	7	42	6	3	0	235	302	316	618	81	307	27	5	268	68	-6	+1	—	—	+3	-0.2
2025	25	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	150	137	20	2	0	0	8	39	4	1	0	146	215	161	375	15	204	26	5	180	8	-16	+0	—	—	+3	-1.3
2024	24	ROK MLE	3 teams	—	237	209	46	12	2	0	15	68	8	3	0	220	297	297	594	77	317	29	6	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	ROK RAW	3 teams	—	237	202	60	17	3	0	22	48	8	3	0	297	388	411	799	114	380	20	9	355	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	150	137	20	2	0	0	8	39	4	1	0	146	215	161	375	15	202	26	5	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	150	134	24	3	0	0	11	28	4	1	0	179	262	201	463	22	224	19	7	223	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	ROK MLE	3 teams	—	237	212	46	12	2	0	15	68	8	3	0	217	297	292	590	75	300	29	6	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	150	137	20	2	0	0	8	39	4	1	0	146	215	161	375	15	204	26	5	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	24	ROK MLE	3 teams	—	237	212	46	12	2	0	15	68	8	3	0	217	297	292	590	75	300	29	6	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	150	137	20	2	0	0	8	39	4	1	0	146	215	161	375	15	204	26	5	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	26	ROK MLE	SD	—	61	49	17	2	2	1	5	17	2	3	0	347	429	531	959	184	500	28	8	365	133	+2	+1	+0	+1	+1	0.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	ROK RAW	SD	—	61	46	19	3	2	1	8	12	2	3	0	413	518	630	1.148	217	529	20	13	459	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	26	ROK MLE	SD	0%	7	7	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	143	143	143	286		289	29	0	257	60	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	26	ROK MLE	SD	—	68	56	18	2	2	1	5	19	2	3	0	321	397	482	879	161	459	28	7	354	126	+2	+1	+0	+1	+1	0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	SD	26%	117	106	22	4	1	1	8	31	2	2	0	208	276	292	568	85	287	26	7	261	62	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.0
2028	28	MLB MLE	SD	39%	208	189	41	8	2	2	14	55	3	3	1	217	282	312	594	95	287	26	7	264	65	-9	+0	-1	+4	+5	-0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	SD	44%	264	239	52	10	2	3	19	69	4	4	1	218	286	314	600	96	286	26	7	265	66	-11	+0	-1	+5	+6	-0.1
2030	30	MLB MLE	SD	47%	303	274	58	11	2	3	22	80	4	4	1	212	280	299	579	88	285	26	7	264	65	-13	+0	-2	+5	+7	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	SD	26%	30	28	5	1	0	0	2	8	0	0	0	179	233	214	448	36	284	27	7	247	62	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	SD	39%	82	75	16	3	1	1	6	22	1	1	0	213	280	320	600	107	284	27	7	251	65	-3	+0	-0	+1	+2	-0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	SD	44%	117	106	22	4	1	1	8	31	2	2	0	208	276	292	568	85	283	26	7	253	66	-5	+0	-1	+2	+3	-0.0
2030	30	MLB CTX	SD	47%	143	130	27	5	1	1	10	38	2	2	0	208	275	285	559	77	282	27	7	251	65	-6	+0	-1	+3	+3	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	372	339	70	13	3	3	26	99	5	5	0	206	273	289	562	83	280	27	7	251	58	-16	+1	-2	+7	+8	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	592	122	23	5	5	45	173	9	9	0	206	272	287	559	81	281	27	7	251	58	-27	+2	-3	+12	+14	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	1286	1161	240	47	9	9	86	344	25	17	3	207	276	286	562	79	282	27	7	253	58	-38	+1	-4	+16	+19	-0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	122	24	5	5	43	174	13	9	2	208	277	291	568	83	283	27	7	253	58	-27	+1	-3	+12	+14	-0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2John McDonaldlast yr '14 career totals — 13 seasons, 2,596 PA	3.9	2,596	28	34	233	273	324	+20	+54	4.2	5.1
/162	664	7	9	+5.0	+13.9	1.1	pk7: 6
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	0.7	449	4	6	210	274	293	+8	+12	0.0	0.1
/162	664	6	9	+11.9	+17.8	0.0	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Colton Vincent (OGILVIE)	26	30	20	40	30	208/273/284	75	289	0	1	27%	6%	60	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕J.J. Franco 2017 · A	25	41	36→30	37→45	42	194/247/257	62	260	3	5	26%	6%	43	-2.8	213/282/268	55	298	2	6	26%	9%	59	-1.6	217/294/253	36	302	0	4	26%	10%	58	-0.6
✕Lyle Lin 2023 · AA	26	40	35→30	43→40	40	189/247/246	57	270	3	4	30%	6%	41	-3.0	210/275/282	72	284	5	5	26%	6%	60	-1.6	171/242/188	17	208	0	4	16%	6%	26	-0.8
✕Connor Justus 2021 · AA	26	37→38	37→40	43→45	44	179/255/251	73	251	5	8	29%	7%	47	-2.6	194/257/270	76	290	5	7	32%	7%	51	-2.3	168/234/218	51	258	3	3	33%	7%	28	-2.1
✕Beau Seabury 2011 · A	26	41	35→30	40→45	36	193/242/250	57	294	2	5	34%	5%	40	-3.1	217/268/311	94	312	8	6	31%	5%	64	-1.3	230/269/348	118	313	11	0	29%	4%	70	-0.2
✕Erick Castillo 2019 · AA	26	42	37→30	46→30	41	203/249/273	70	254	6	4	22%	5%	47	-2.5	208/263/281	73	264	6	5	22%	5%	55	-1.9	198/267/228	29	252	1	0	20%	5%	43	-0.8
✕Stephen McGee 2017 · AAA	26	40	38→40	44→30	45	194/269/271	78	275	6	4	30%	8%	56	-1.9	204/290/309	105	310	9	4	34%	10%	73	-0.6	190/290/293	103	292	10	0	35%	12%	67	-0.4
✕Chandler Seagle 2022 · AA	26	40	38→40	44→45	35	193/247/277	84	283	5	5	32%	4%	49	-2.4	190/240/270	80	296	6	6	36%	5%	44	-2.8	170/217/237	67	275	5	4	38%	5%	25	-1.5
✕Stuart Levy 2019 · A	26	36	38→40	44→40	38	176/245/251	75	269	7	5	35%	6%	42	-2.9	191/252/281	90	304	8	7	37%	6%	51	-2.2	147/204/228	81	243	8	3	41%	6%	18	-0.9
✕Ricardo Valenzuela 2016 · A	25	40	38→30	44→50	45	195/252/270	76	246	5	5	23%	6%	49	-2.4	213/266/271	58	259	4	3	18%	7%	53	-2.1	224/272/272	48	261	5	0	16%	6%	54	-0.7
✕Anthony Mulrine 2023 · AAA	25	37	37→40	45→40	40	178/255/248	70	259	5	5	32%	6%	46	-2.6	192/272/277	85	272	7	6	30%	7%	59	-1.7	144/248/206	63	200	4	0	27%	8%	33	-0.8
✕Chad Noble 2013 · AA	25	38	35→30	43→30	39	183/226/238	56	253	2	4	28%	5%	30	-3.8	200/244/270	70	264	4	6	24%	5%	45	-2.7	193/231/248	54	246	2	2	21%	4%	33	-1.4
✕Pat Cantwell 2016 · AAA	26	43	37→30	42→40	41	202/265/273	71	260	4	4	23%	5%	55	-2.0	211/272/287	76	292	6	8	28%	6%	60	-1.6	231/298/302	72	322	6	8	28%	6%	71	-0.2
✕Matt Pagnozzi 2008 · AAA	25	38	38→40	45→40	37	186/239/266	79	266	5	4	31%	5%	42	-2.9	207/260/286	79	287	7	4	29%	6%	55	-2.0	210/276/290	80	290	6	0	28%	7%	60	-0.7
✕Brian Ward 2011 · A	25	41	36→40	43→45	47	193/272/257	64	268	4	6	28%	8%	54	-2.0	218/284/303	85	271	6	8	20%	7%	68	-1.0	224/288/309	84	270	6	8	18%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Mike Nickeas 2009 · AAA	26	41	38→40	39→40	45	196/260/271	75	255	5	4	24%	7%	52	-2.2	212/279/293	81	262	6	4	20%	8%	64	-1.3	222/288/298	77	266	6	1	18%	8%	67	-0.5
✕Jeff Kunkel 2009 · AA	26	42	36→40	45→30	38	202/241/267	65	271	4	5	27%	4%	42	-2.9	205/254/290	85	272	7	4	26%	5%	53	-2.1	194/245/270	77	255	8	1	26%	5%	44	-0.9
✕Tanner Vavra 2015 · A	26	46	35→30	45	41	212/276/271	58	308	2	7	30%	6%	57	-1.8	219/285/284	65	306	3	8	28%	6%	64	-1.3	220/291/258	39	306	0	7	26%	5%	57	-0.8
✕Javi Herrera 2007 · AA	26	43	40	42→45	41	210/270/300	90	267	7	5	23%	5%	63	-1.4	211/290/300	89	265	7	7	22%	8%	70	-0.8	196/290/274	77	246	7	5	21%	9%	64	-0.4
✕Alfredo González 2018 · AA	26	46	38→30	45	46	217/278/288	71	277	5	7	23%	7%	62	-1.4	209/270/284	75	288	6	6	27%	7%	59	-1.7	200/264/257	57	286	4	2	29%	7%	47	-1.0
✕Jeff Kemp 2016 · A	26	44→45	38→40	43→45	38	212/256/296	84	293	5	5	29%	4%	55	-1.9	205/258/295	90	302	8	8	33%	6%	56	-1.9	147/211/218	71	230	10	10	39%	6%	20	-1.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps