Colton Vincent — OGILVIE

Colton VincentC ACL Padres

Age 26 R/R 5'11" / 187 lbs ROK HR -7% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION58 act + 38 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†56

AVG/OBP/SLG.173 / .259 / .202

PA38

HR0

K%26

BB%8

BABIP243

ISO29

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	24	ROK	3 teams	—	237	209	45	11	2	0	15	68	8	3	0	215	293	287	580	72	310	29	6	254	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	ROK	3 teams	—	237	202	60	17	3	0	22	48	8	3	0	297	388	411	799	114	380	20	9	355	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	150	136	20	2	0	0	9	41	4	1	0	147	221	162	383	15	208	27	6	179	-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	150	134	24	3	0	0	11	28	4	1	0	179	262	201	463	22	224	19	7	223	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	26	ROK	SD	—	58	47	17	2	2	1	5	16	2	3	0	362	444	553	998	191	516	28	9	380	149	+3	+1	+0	+1	+2	0.7
YTD	26	ROK	SD	—	58	44	19	3	2	1	8	11	2	3	0	432	537	659	1.196	227	545	19	14	482	227	+8	+1	+0	+1	+2	1.2
ROS	26	ROK	SD	0%	38	34	6	1	0	0	3	10	1	1	0	173	259	202	461	29	291	26	8	258	56	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
ROS	26	MLB	SD	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		288	—	—	243	44	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	26	ROK	SD	—	58	48	17	2	2	1	5	16	2	3	0	354	444	542	986	187	500	28	9	380	149	+3	+1	+0	+1	+2	0.7
TOT	26	ROK	SD	—	96	81	23	3	2	1	8	26	3	4	0	282	367	404	771	122	395	27	8	331	112	+1	+1	+0	+2	+3	0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	SD	26%	117	106	22	4	1	1	8	31	2	2	0	208	276	292	568	85	288	26	7	261	58	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.0
2028	28	MLB	SD	39%	208	188	41	8	2	2	15	55	3	3	1	218	286	314	600	96	288	26	7	265	61	-9	+0	-1	+4	+6	-0.0
2029	29	MLB	SD	44%	264	239	52	10	2	3	19	70	4	4	1	218	286	314	600	96	287	27	7	266	62	-11	+0	-1	+5	+7	-0.0
2027	27	MLB	SD	26%	30	28	5	1	0	0	2	8	0	0	0	179	233	214	448	36	284	27	7	247	47	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2028	28	MLB	SD	39%	82	75	16	3	1	1	6	22	1	1	0	213	280	320	600	107	284	27	7	251	50	-5	+0	-0	+1	+2	-0.1
2029	29	MLB	SD	44%	117	106	22	4	1	1	8	31	2	2	0	208	276	292	568	85	284	26	7	252	51	-6	+0	-1	+2	+3	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	229	210	43	8	2	2	16	61	3	3	0	205	272	290	562	86	277	27	7	251	50	-13	+1	-1	+4	+6	-0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	596	123	23	6	6	45	173	9	9	0	206	274	295	569	89	279	27	7	251	50	-37	+2	-3	+12	+18	-0.7
Career	—			—	1014	912	186	36	7	6	69	275	22	14	2	204	276	278	554	75	281	27	7	249	49	-59	+2	-2	+18	+29	-1.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	119	23	4	4	44	176	14	9	1	203	275	277	552	74	280	27	7	249	49	-38	+1	-1	+12	+18	-0.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	24	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	16	13	4	0	0	2	3	1	0	308	438	308	745		400	19	12	359	133	+1	+0	—	—	+0	0.1
2024	24	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	67	58	14	4	2	8	16	1	0	241	343	379	723	138	333	24	12	327	109	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2024	24	ROK	ACL Padres	—	154	131	42	13	1	12	29	6	3	321	403	435	838	115	396	19	8	366	139	+7	+1	—	—	+4	1.2
2025	25	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	150	134	24	3	0	11	28	4	1	179	262	201	463	22	224	19	7	223	29	-12	+0	—	—	+4	-0.8

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	305	2	4	209	273	290	+5	+8	-0.1	-0.0
	/162	664	5	9	209	273	290	+11.9	+17.4	-0.3	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Colton Vincent (OGILVIE)	26	30	20	40	30	282/367/404	122	395	1	4	27%	8%	112	+0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Connor Justus 2021 · AA	26	35→37	37→40	43→45	42	172/248/244	72	250	5	8	31%	7%	35	-2.8	192/256/268	76	294	6	7	34%	7%	43	-2.2	166/232/217	51	261	3	3	35%	7%	17	-2.1
✕J.J. Franco 2017 · A	25	41	36→30	37→45	42	194/246/256	62	260	3	5	26%	6%	35	-2.8	212/283/267	55	298	2	6	26%	9%	54	-1.4	214/294/251	37	301	0	4	26%	10%	52	-0.5
✕Lyle Lin 2023 · AA	26	40	35→30	43→40	40	189/248/245	56	270	3	4	30%	6%	33	-2.9	211/276/282	71	286	5	5	26%	6%	56	-1.3	165/233/180	15	204	0	4	18%	6%	10	-0.8
✕Toby Gardenhire 2008 · A	25	40	33→30	38→40	39	190/230/234	44	255	1	6	26%	4%	21	-3.7	225/275/270	45	285	2	5	20%	5%	50	-1.7	230/282/259	30	282	1	3	18%	5%	47	-0.9
✕Beau Seabury 2011 · A	26	41	35→30	40→45	36	193/241/250	57	293	2	5	34%	5%	31	-3.0	217/268/318	101	312	9	6	32%	5%	61	-1.0	228/266/363	135	307	15	0	30%	4%	69	-0.1
✕Stephen McGee 2017 · AAA	26	40	38→40	44→30	45	193/269/273	80	275	6	4	30%	8%	50	-1.7	204/290/316	112	313	11	4	35%	10%	71	-0.3	189/289/303	113	293	12	0	36%	12%	63	-0.3
✕George Soto 2011 · A	25	34	36→40	44→45	40	169/238/230	61	247	5	8	32%	6%	27	-3.3	190/261/281	91	262	7	8	28%	8%	49	-1.8	163/239/259	97	213	9	7	27%	8%	37	-1.0
✕Erick Castillo 2019 · AA	26	41	38→30	46→30	41	201/247/275	74	255	6	4	24%	5%	40	-2.4	207/263/283	76	264	6	5	23%	5%	50	-1.8	199/267/230	31	253	2	0	20%	5%	36	-0.7
✕Stuart Levy 2019 · A	26	36	38→40	44→40	38	175/245/249	74	270	6	5	35%	6%	34	-2.8	191/251/282	91	306	8	7	38%	6%	45	-2.1	149/202/237	88	245	9	3	41%	6%	9	-0.9
✕Brian Ward 2011 · A	25	40	36→40	43→45	48	192/273/255	63	265	4	6	27%	9%	48	-1.9	220/287/306	86	274	6	8	20%	8%	66	-0.6	227/292/315	88	275	6	8	19%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Anthony Mulrine 2023 · AAA	25	36	37→40	45→40	39	177/253/247	71	262	5	5	32%	6%	38	-2.6	192/271/279	87	273	7	6	30%	7%	53	-1.5	147/251/218	70	204	5	0	28%	8%	28	-0.7
✕Pat Cantwell 2016 · AAA	26	42	38→30	42→40	40	199/261/275	75	257	5	4	24%	5%	47	-1.9	213/274/293	80	294	7	8	28%	6%	57	-1.2	238/305/315	77	331	7	8	28%	7%	73	-0.0
✕Josh Bissonette 2023 · AAA	26	41	36→30	44→30	45	197/256/265	68	265	3	5	26%	7%	42	-2.3	207/267/288	81	275	6	7	25%	7%	53	-1.5	190/254/236	46	252	2	0	24%	8%	30	-1.0
✕Tanner Vavra 2015 · A	26	45	35→30	45	40	207/270/264	57	303	2	7	30%	6%	48	-1.9	215/280/280	65	302	3	8	28%	5%	56	-1.3	214/283/254	41	299	0	7	26%	4%	47	-0.9
✕Matt McLaughlin 2021 · A	25	43→39	36→30	44→45	45	201/268/266	65	283	3	10	28%	8%	47	-1.9	198/260/278	80	265	6	7	26%	6%	48	-1.9	174/236/237	64	227	5	3	25%	6%	24	-1.9
✕Jeff Kunkel 2009 · AA	26	42	36→40	45→30	38	201/241/267	66	272	4	5	27%	4%	35	-2.8	204/254/294	90	272	8	4	27%	5%	49	-1.8	191/244/275	84	253	9	1	27%	5%	37	-0.8
✕Mike Nickeas 2009 · AAA	26	41	38→40	39→40	44	196/259/272	76	255	5	4	24%	7%	46	-2.0	211/277/293	82	263	7	4	21%	8%	59	-1.1	219/286/299	80	264	7	1	18%	8%	62	-0.4
✕Jeff Kemp 2016 · A	26	44	38→40	43→45	37	210/254/293	83	293	5	5	29%	4%	48	-1.9	203/255/293	90	307	9	8	35%	6%	49	-1.8	141/202/214	73	232	10	10	42%	6%	5	-1.4
✕Chandler Seagle 2022 · AA	26	40	39→40	44→45	34	192/246/279	87	294	6	5	35%	4%	42	-2.3	189/241/273	84	303	7	6	38%	5%	37	-2.6	167/216/237	70	277	6	4	40%	5%	15	-1.5
✕Chad Noble 2013 · AA	25	38	35→30	43→30	39	183/226/237	54	252	2	4	28%	5%	20	-3.8	199/243/268	69	263	4	6	25%	5%	37	-2.7	192/228/245	53	245	2	2	22%	4%	22	-1.4