Shalin Polanco — OGILVIE

Shalin PolancoOF Greensboro Grasshoppers

Age 22 L/L 6'0" / 168 lbs A+ BB +7% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.1 · 2030

wRC+†63

AVG/OBP/SLG.179 / .242 / .312

PA320

HR9

SB10

K%38

BB%7

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

30→30

PWR

50→50

SPD

45→45

EYE

46↘40

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.0peak

2030

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.2M	—	—	—
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$-7M	-$10M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL PIT Black	176	164	18	3	1	1	11	67	0	6	2	.110	.166	.159	.324	.049	.175	38	6	.159	-20	-24	+0	+0	-1	+5	-2.0
2022	18	ROK	FCL Pirates	148	136	23	4	0	2	8	50	3	7	4	.169	.231	.243	.474	.074	.247	34	5	.221	27	-12	-0	+0	-1	+4	-0.9
2023	19	A	Bradenton Marauders	303	272	56	15	0	10	21	120	4	17	7	.206	.273	.371	.644	.165	.317	40	7	.275	69	-11	+1	+0	-2	+9	-0.3
2024	20	A	Bradenton Marauders	432	395	54	14	2	8	31	194	4	11	9	.137	.207	.243	.450	.106	.236	45	7	.202	13	-43	-1	+0	-3	+12	-3.5
2025	21	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	350	320	56	6	3	11	21	116	2	9	7	.175	.230	.316	.546	.141	.230	33	6	.234	37	-25	-1	+0	-2	+10	-1.8
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	22	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	78	67	14	2	0	3	9	31	0	4	1	.209	.303	.373	.676	.164	.314	40	12	.294	83	-1	+0	+0	-0	+2	0.1
ROS	22	MLB	PIT	242	219	41	8	1	7	19	93	2	6	3	.187	.258	.329	.587	.142	.276	38	8	.258	56	-12	+0	+0	-1	+7	-0.7
TOT	22	MLB	PIT	320	286	55	10	1	10	28	124	2	10	4	.192	.269	.339	.608	.147	.290	39	9	.267	63	-14	+0	+0	-2	+9	-0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	23	MLB 11%	PIT	386	347	68	13	2	11	33	126	3	9	4	.196	.272	.340	.612	.144	.267	33	9	.275	68	-14	+0	+0	-2	+11	-0.5
2028	24	MLB 26%	PIT	446	401	81	15	2	14	39	141	3	10	4	.202	.278	.354	.632	.152	.269	32	9	.283	74	-13	+0	+0	-3	+13	-0.3
2029	25	MLB 44%	PIT	479	429	88	17	2	15	43	149	4	10	5	.205	.284	.359	.643	.154	.271	31	9	.288	78	-12	+0	+0	-3	+14	-0.1
2030	26	MLB 59%	PIT	498	445	91	17	2	16	46	153	4	10	4	.204	.285	.360	.644	.155	.272	31	9	.290	80	-11	+0	+0	-3	+14	0.1
2031	27	MLB 76%	PIT	505	449	93	18	2	16	47	156	4	10	4	.207	.288	.363	.651	.156	.272	31	9	.291	81	-11	+0	+0	-3	+14	0.1
2032	28	MLB 84%	PIT	505	449	92	17	2	16	47	157	4	9	4	.205	.286	.359	.645	.154	.272	31	9	.289	80	-12	+0	-1	-3	+14	-0.1
2033	29	MLB	PIT	498	444	90	17	2	15	47	156	4	8	3	.203	.285	.351	.636	.149	.271	31	9	.287	78	-12	+0	-1	-3	+14	-0.2
2034	30	MLB	PIT	489	436	87	16	2	15	46	155	4	7	3	.200	.282	.349	.631	.149	.269	32	9	.284	76	-13	+0	-2	-3	+14	-0.5
2035	31	MLB	PIT	476	425	84	16	2	14	45	153	3	5	2	.198	.279	.344	.623	.146	.268	32	9	.280	73	-15	+0	-3	-3	+13	-0.7
2036	32	MLB	PIT	459	410	80	15	2	13	43	150	3	3	2	.195	.276	.337	.613	.141	.266	33	9	.276	69	-16	-0	-4	-3	+13	-1.0
2037	33	MLB	PIT	430	384	73	13	2	12	40	143	3	2	2	.190	.272	.328	.600	.138	.264	33	9	.270	65	-17	-0	-4	-3	+12	-1.2
2038	34	MLB	PIT	384	343	64	12	1	10	36	131	2	2	2	.187	.268	.315	.583	.128	.262	34	9	.264	60	-17	-0	-5	-2	+11	-1.4
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			7206	6468	1239	236	30	206	623	2410	56	141	71	.192	.268	.333	.601	.141	.266	33	9	.270	65	-289	-0	-20	-43	+204	-15.1
/ 162G	—			650	583	112	21	3	19	56	217	5	13	6	.192	.268	.336	.604	.144	.266	33	9	.270	65	-26	+0	-2	-4	+18	-1.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL PIT Black	176	157	32	6	3	3	18	44	0	6	2	.204	.286	.338	.623	.134	.261	25	10	.281	73	-5	+0	—	—	+5	0.0
2022	18	ROK	FCL Pirates	148	132	33	7	0	3	12	40	3	7	4	.250	.327	.371	.698	.121	.333	27	8	.315	99	-0	-0	—	—	+4	0.4
2023	19	A	Bradenton Marauders	303	264	64	16	0	12	29	87	4	17	7	.242	.327	.439	.766	.197	.310	29	10	.334	114	+5	+1	—	—	+9	1.4
2024	20	A	Bradenton Marauders	432	382	73	19	3	11	44	134	4	11	9	.191	.281	.343	.624	.152	.259	31	10	.282	74	-13	-1	—	—	+12	-0.2
2025	21	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	350	306	64	8	4	13	35	88	2	9	7	.209	.294	.389	.683	.180	.245	25	10	.300	88	-5	-1	—	—	+10	0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Shalin Polanco (OGILVIE)	22	30	50	45	40	.179/.242/.312	.134	.269	9	6	38%	7%	50	-0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Yeicok Calderon 2014 · A	22	35	46→45	45	33	.180/.227/.303	.123	.290	14	5	42%	6%	40	-2.4	.206/.250/.323	.117	.324	12	6	38%	5%	54	-1.4	.210/.245/.331	.121	.324	12	5	38%	4%	52	-0.6
✕Iverson Leonardo 2023 · A	21	37	44→50	49→50	40	.188/.259/.305	.117	.281	12	9	36%	7%	55	-1.4	.194/.278/.291	.097	.346	7	8	42%	9%	59	-1.1	.146/.273/.221	.075	.359	3	4	52%	12%	39	-0.5
●Drew Lugbauer 2019 · A	22	37→32	47→65	46→30	33	.188/.244/.319	.131	.306	16	3	42%	6%	52	-1.6	.173/.225/.311	.138	.296	18	3	46%	6%	42	-2.3	.184/.259/.408	.223	.302	33	1	48%	8%	79	+0.2
✕Abimelec Ortiz 2023 · A	21	36→39	50→60	43→40	41	.192/.265/.337	.145	.271	19	7	35%	8%	66	-0.6	.210/.271/.394	.184	.280	25	4	34%	7%	83	+0.6	.207/.272/.399	.191	.261	26	2	31%	7%	82	+0.4
✕Jared Walker 2018 · A	22	38→33	48→55	46→45	33	.189/.245/.325	.136	.320	16	7	44%	6%	53	-1.5	.190/.270/.352	.162	.298	20	5	41%	7%	72	-0.2	.159/.252/.310	.152	.261	19	6	44%	8%	52	-0.9
✕Rixon Wingrove 2022 · A	22	36→34	45→50	46→40	37	.186/.246/.305	.120	.280	13	4	37%	6%	50	-1.8	.190/.254/.333	.143	.298	18	4	40%	6%	60	-1.0	.183/.253/.339	.156	.268	21	3	39%	7%	58	-0.7
✕Isan Díaz 2018 · A	22	40	47→55	45	43	.203/.272/.335	.133	.289	14	8	34%	8%	68	-0.5	.205/.274/.346	.141	.290	16	8	33%	8%	72	-0.2	.204/.284/.367	.164	.263	21	5	30%	9%	75	+0.0
✕Johan Mieses 2017 · A	22	37→32	51→55	46→50	36	.200/.247/.364	.164	.270	19	9	34%	5%	65	-0.7	.183/.234/.337	.154	.257	20	4	37%	5%	53	-1.5	.194/.269/.375	.181	.237	26	7	31%	7%	74	-0.0
✕Yusuf Carter 2007 · A	22	37→34	46→50	45→50	35	.194/.240/.317	.122	.287	15	6	37%	5%	49	-1.8	.202/.239/.339	.137	.300	16	10	37%	5%	54	-1.4	.219/.264/.370	.151	.296	19	10	32%	5%	70	-0.2
✕Agustin Ruiz 2022 · AA	22	36	45→50	42→40	38	.186/.247/.301	.115	.273	14	4	36%	6%	49	-1.8	.187/.257/.327	.140	.263	18	4	35%	7%	60	-1.0	.169/.247/.302	.133	.232	16	2	34%	7%	49	-1.1
✕Alexander Canario 2022 · A	22	37→34	51→60	50	37	.200/.246/.359	.159	.282	20	14	36%	6%	63	-0.8	.212/.272/.410	.198	.294	26	14	36%	7%	88	+0.9	.209/.277/.424	.216	.279	30	13	36%	8%	90	+0.6
●MJ Melendez 2021 · A	22	32→42	46→60	44→50	31	.165/.220/.297	.131	.292	14	6	47%	6%	36	-2.7	.217/.296/.418	.201	.273	26	5	30%	10%	100	+1.7	.220/.307/.417	.197	.267	25	4	27%	11%	100	+1.7
✕Marcus Greene Jr. 2017 · A	22	35	46→50	45→40	40	.185/.251/.313	.128	.265	15	5	35%	7%	53	-1.5	.209/.268/.329	.120	.279	13	4	28%	7%	65	-0.7	.211/.271/.321	.110	.275	12	2	27%	7%	61	-0.4
✕Travis Blankenhorn 2019 · A	22	40→43	45→55	51→50	38	.201/.261/.328	.127	.288	11	7	33%	6%	61	-1.0	.215/.262/.357	.142	.295	16	9	32%	5%	69	-0.4	.211/.283/.380	.168	.276	21	6	31%	8%	81	+0.3
✕Albert Fabian 2023 · A	21	37→34	49→50	41→40	37	.195/.255/.340	.145	.291	18	5	38%	6%	62	-0.9	.201/.258/.341	.140	.265	17	5	30%	6%	64	-0.8	.199/.257/.331	.132	.246	16	3	26%	6%	58	-0.5
●Will Benson 2019 · A	21	30→40	47→55	47→55	44	.163/.256/.291	.128	.251	16	9	40%	10%	51	-1.7	.179/.262/.333	.154	.273	19	14	39%	10%	64	-0.8	.221/.322/.401	.180	.313	18	26	32%	12%	102	+1.4
●Nick Pratto 2021 · A	22	37→43	43→55	49→50	33	.182/.230/.286	.104	.302	11	13	42%	6%	37	-2.7	.201/.287/.393	.192	.294	24	9	38%	9%	90	+1.0	.196/.288/.385	.190	.281	24	7	37%	10%	87	+0.7
✕Michael Burgess 2011 · AA	22	39→42	50→55	45	38	.205/.264/.355	.150	.287	18	6	34%	6%	69	-0.4	.203/.266/.343	.140	.269	16	3	29%	7%	68	-0.5	.211/.258/.365	.155	.264	17	2	27%	6%	68	-0.3
✕Mason Martin 2021 · A	22	35→32	53→60	46→45	38	.186/.257/.358	.172	.294	21	5	42%	8%	69	-0.4	.187/.248/.360	.173	.302	21	6	43%	6%	65	-0.7	.168/.236/.334	.166	.270	21	7	44%	7%	52	-1.3
✕David Washington 2013 · A	22	40→37	44→55	48→45	38	.197/.255/.318	.120	.306	12	6	38%	7%	56	-1.3	.201/.263/.343	.142	.320	16	5	40%	7%	66	-0.6	.196/.256/.360	.164	.317	22	5	43%	7%	65	-0.5

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)