Shalin Polanco
OF Greensboro Grasshoppers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | APIT | 432 | .191/.281/.343 | 11 | 11 | 22 | — | .136/.202/.229 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+PIT | 350 | .209/.294/.389 | 13 | 9 | 48 | — | .175/.230/.316 |
| 2026 | 22 | AA/A+PIT | 335 | .197/.303/.363 | 11 | 7 | 44 | — | .170/.239/.314 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBPIT | 1 | .170/.233/.297 | 0 | 0 | 50 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 24 | MLBPIT | 90 | .176/.240/.308 | 2 | 1 | 55 | -0.4 |
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL PIT Black | — | 176 | 157 | 32 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 44 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 204 | 286 | 338 | 623 | 134 | 261 | 25 | 10 | 281 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | FCL Pirates | — | 148 | 132 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 40 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 250 | 327 | 371 | 698 | 121 | 333 | 27 | 8 | 315 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Bradenton Marauders | — | 303 | 264 | 64 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 29 | 87 | 4 | 17 | 7 | 242 | 327 | 439 | 766 | 197 | 310 | 29 | 10 | 334 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Bradenton Marauders | — | 432 | 382 | 73 | 19 | 3 | 11 | 44 | 134 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 191 | 281 | 343 | 624 | 152 | 259 | 31 | 10 | 282 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 350 | 306 | 64 | 8 | 4 | 13 | 35 | 88 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 209 | 294 | 389 | 683 | 180 | 245 | 25 | 10 | 300 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 64 | 56 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 179 | 258 | 232 | 490 | 54 | 323 | 41 | 9 | 224 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 271 | 228 | 46 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 35 | 76 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 202 | 313 | 395 | 708 | 193 | 241 | 28 | 13 | 312 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL PIT Black | — | 176 | 163 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 56 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 104 | 166 | 153 | 319 | 49 | 159 | 32 | 7 | 159 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Pirates | — | 148 | 136 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 54 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 169 | 231 | 243 | 474 | 74 | 261 | 36 | 5 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 303 | 273 | 58 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 20 | 114 | 4 | 17 | 7 | 212 | 276 | 374 | 650 | 161 | 304 | 38 | 7 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 432 | 397 | 54 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 187 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 136 | 202 | 229 | 432 | 93 | 230 | 43 | 7 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 350 | 320 | 56 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 21 | 116 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 175 | 230 | 316 | 546 | 141 | 227 | 33 | 6 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 64 | 58 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 172 | 226 | 224 | 450 | 52 | 321 | 50 | 6 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 271 | 242 | 41 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 99 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 169 | 242 | 335 | 576 | 165 | 210 | 37 | 8 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL PIT Black | — | 176 | 163 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 56 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 104 | 166 | 153 | 319 | 49 | 150 | 32 | 7 | 159 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL PIT Black | — | 176 | 157 | 32 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 44 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 204 | 286 | 338 | 623 | 134 | 261 | 25 | 10 | 281 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Pirates | — | 148 | 136 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 54 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 169 | 231 | 243 | 474 | 74 | 259 | 36 | 5 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Pirates | — | 148 | 132 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 40 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 250 | 327 | 371 | 698 | 121 | 333 | 27 | 8 | 315 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 303 | 273 | 58 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 20 | 114 | 4 | 17 | 7 | 212 | 276 | 374 | 650 | 161 | 316 | 38 | 7 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A RAW | Bradenton Marauders | — | 303 | 264 | 64 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 29 | 87 | 4 | 17 | 7 | 242 | 327 | 439 | 766 | 197 | 310 | 29 | 10 | 334 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 432 | 397 | 54 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 187 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 136 | 202 | 229 | 432 | 93 | 229 | 43 | 7 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A RAW | Bradenton Marauders | — | 432 | 382 | 73 | 19 | 3 | 11 | 44 | 134 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 191 | 281 | 343 | 624 | 152 | 259 | 31 | 10 | 282 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 350 | 320 | 56 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 21 | 116 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 175 | 230 | 316 | 546 | 141 | 230 | 33 | 6 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ RAW | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 350 | 306 | 64 | 8 | 4 | 13 | 35 | 88 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 209 | 294 | 389 | 683 | 180 | 245 | 25 | 10 | 300 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 335 | 300 | 49 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 131 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 163 | 232 | 300 | 532 | 137 | 238 | 39 | 7 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 335 | 284 | 56 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 41 | 102 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 197 | 303 | 363 | 665 | 165 | 256 | 30 | 12 | 295 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL PIT Black | — | 176 | 162 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 56 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 105 | 166 | 154 | 320 | 49 | 159 | 32 | 7 | 159 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Pirates | — | 148 | 136 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 54 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 169 | 231 | 243 | 474 | 74 | 261 | 36 | 5 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 303 | 276 | 58 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 20 | 114 | 4 | 17 | 7 | 210 | 276 | 370 | 646 | 159 | 304 | 38 | 7 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 432 | 396 | 54 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 187 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 136 | 202 | 230 | 432 | 93 | 230 | 43 | 7 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 350 | 324 | 56 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 21 | 116 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 173 | 230 | 312 | 542 | 139 | 227 | 33 | 6 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 335 | 305 | 49 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 131 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 161 | 232 | 295 | 527 | 134 | 231 | 39 | 7 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 432 | 396 | 54 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 187 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 136 | 202 | 230 | 432 | 93 | 230 | 43 | 7 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 350 | 324 | 56 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 21 | 116 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 173 | 230 | 312 | 542 | 139 | 227 | 33 | 6 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 335 | 305 | 49 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 131 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 161 | 232 | 295 | 527 | 134 | 231 | 39 | 7 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | PIT | 0% | 445 | 408 | 70 | 10 | 3 | 13 | 31 | 151 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 172 | 235 | 305 | 540 | 133 | 233 | 34 | 7 | 242 | 50 | -26 | -0 | +0 | -3 | +10 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB CTX | PIT | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 233 | 297 | 530 | 127 | 232 | 0 | 0 | 239 | 50 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | PIT | 30% | 297 | 272 | 48 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 21 | 99 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 178 | 241 | 316 | 558 | 139 | 237 | 33 | 7 | 250 | 55 | -16 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +6 | -1.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | PIT | 30% | 90 | 83 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 176 | 240 | 308 | 548 | 132 | 237 | 33 | 7 | 246 | 55 | -5 | -0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 90 | 83 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 169 | 233 | 289 | 522 | 120 | 235 | 33 | 7 | 246 | 42 | -5 | -0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 599 | 100 | 14 | 7 | 14 | 43 | 217 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 167 | 231 | 284 | 515 | 117 | 234 | 33 | 7 | 246 | 42 | -35 | -1 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -2.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2251 | 2053 | 339 | 56 | 13 | 56 | 151 | 828 | 18 | 65 | 36 | 165 | 229 | 287 | 516 | 122 | 239 | 37 | 7 | 230 | 42 | -28 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +11 | -2.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 593 | 98 | 16 | 4 | 16 | 44 | 239 | 5 | 19 | 10 | 165 | 229 | 287 | 516 | 121 | 239 | 37 | 7 | 230 | 42 | -36 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -2.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 271 PAwOBA .308 → .242 (−66)K% 28.0% → 36.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.04% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 36.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 7.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.74% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×1.014 | ×1.012 | 15.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×1.014 | ×1.012 | 2.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.97% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.014 | ×1.012 | 1.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.24% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 6.44% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .308 → .242; ISO .193 → .166; BABIP .241 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAAltoona Curve · 64 PAwOBA .222 → .192 (−30)K% 40.6% → 49.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 40.62% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 49.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 6.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.042 | 26.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.042 | 2.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.042 | 3.30% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .222 → .192; ISO .054 → .048; BABIP .323 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 350 PAwOBA .293 → .239 (−54)K% 25.1% → 33.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.14% | ÷0.994 | ×1.310 | — | — | 33.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.71% | ÷0.980 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 6.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.57% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 0.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.89% | ÷0.950 | ×0.870 | ×1.022 | ×1.027 | 17.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.67% | ÷0.998 | ×0.780 | ×1.022 | ×1.027 | 3.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.83% | ÷1.025 | ×0.850 | ×1.022 | ×1.027 | 1.60% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.96% | ÷1.048 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 5.14% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 90, 2B 100, 3B 105, K 99, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .293 → .239; ISO .180 → .149; BABIP .245 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ABradenton Marauders · 432 PAwOBA .274 → .200 (−75)K% 31.0% → 43.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.02% | ÷0.975 | ×1.360 | — | — | 43.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.72% | ÷1.010 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 6.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.93% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.13% | ÷0.977 | ×0.920 | ×0.994 | ×1.030 | 15.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.66% | ÷1.124 | ×0.830 | ×0.994 | ×1.030 | 5.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.21% | ÷1.052 | ×0.910 | ×0.994 | ×1.030 | 1.07% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.44% | ÷1.046 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 3.50% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 95, 2B 125, 3B 110, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .274 → .200; ISO .152 → .102; BABIP .259 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ABradenton Marauders · 303 PAwOBA .327 → .278 (−49)K% 28.7% → 37.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.71% | ÷1.037 | ×1.360 | — | — | 37.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.24% | ÷0.994 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 6.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.32% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 1.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.34% | ÷0.958 | ×0.920 | ×1.017 | ×1.045 | 20.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.04% | ÷0.949 | ×0.830 | ×1.017 | ×1.045 | 8.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.017 | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.78% | ÷0.971 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 5.84% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 92, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 107, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .327 → .278; ISO .197 → .162; BABIP .310 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKFCL Pirates · 148 PAwOBA .309 → .218 (−91)K% 27.0% → 36.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.03% | ÷1.069 | ×1.440 | — | — | 36.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.11% | ÷0.988 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 5.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.03% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 1.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.005 | ×0.820 | ×0.976 | ×1.022 | 20.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.61% | ÷1.027 | ×0.720 | ×0.976 | ×1.022 | 5.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.976 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.26% | ÷0.977 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 2.66% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 101, 2B 105, 3B 100, K 114, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .309 → .218; ISO .121 → .085; BABIP .333 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL PIT Black · 176 PAwOBA .275 → .159 (−116)K% 25.0% → 31.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷0.957 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.23% | ÷1.032 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 7.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.70% | ÷1.034 | ×0.680 | ×0.969 | ×1.022 | 11.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.31% | ÷1.060 | ×0.600 | ×0.969 | ×1.022 | 2.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.65% | ÷1.150 | ×0.600 | ×0.969 | ×1.022 | 1.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.65% | ÷1.322 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.97% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 107, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 91, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .275 → .159; ISO .134 → .059; BABIP .261 → .159. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).