Marlon Franco
P
ACL Giants
+0.2
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'1" / 228 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 0.5 · 2028
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.6%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%13.0%
IP51
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2028
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Giants Orange | 12 | 0 | 15 | 67 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 17.3% | 13.1% | 5.7% | 5.52 | 6.44 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL Giants Black | 20 | 1 | 28 | 132 | 28 | 15 | 5 | 14.4% | 14.2% | 4.8% | 6.43 | 6.31 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | DSL Giants Black | 14 | 8 | 40 | 171 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 11.9% | 5.1% | 1.4% | 2.68 | 3.49 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK | DSL Giants Black | 12 | 9 | 49 | 195 | 46 | 5 | 2 | 16.0% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 1.65 | 2.85 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 22 | ROK | ACL Giants | 14 | 5 | 54 | 246 | 51 | 16 | 5 | 14.1% | 8.1% | 2.4% | 5.00 | 4.26 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | SF | 51 | — | 51 | 216 | 47 | 19 | 6 | 21.6% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SF | 52 | — | 52 | 221 | 49 | 19 | 6 | 22.4% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.25 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SF | 53 | — | 53 | 224 | 51 | 19 | 6 | 22.8% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.20 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SF | 53 | — | 53 | 224 | 52 | 19 | 6 | 23.0% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 4.18 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | SF | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 51 | 19 | 6 | 23.1% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.20 | 4.19 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | SF | 52 | — | 52 | 219 | 50 | 19 | 6 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 4.22 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | SF | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 49 | 18 | 6 | 22.9% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | SF | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 47 | 18 | 6 | 22.7% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.33 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | SF | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 45 | 18 | 6 | 22.4% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 4.36 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | SF | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 43 | 17 | 6 | 22.2% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.49 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | SF | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 40 | 17 | 6 | 21.9% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 4.53 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | SF | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 37 | 16 | 6 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 4.63 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | SF | 39 | — | 39 | 164 | 35 | 16 | 6 | 21.1% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 4.74 | 4.82 | +0.1 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | SF | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 32 | 15 | 6 | 20.7% | 9.8% | 3.6% | 4.87 | 4.95 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 72 | 23 | 186 | 811 | 117 | 62 | 21 | 14.4% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 3.87 | 4.27 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 77 | 25 | 200 | 872 | 126 | 67 | 23 | 14.4% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 3.87 | 4.27 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Marlon Franco (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 21.6% | 8.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.21 | 22.7% | 14.3% | 159 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Billy Corcoran R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.24 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .308 | 4.43 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 156 | +0.19 | 4.24 | 225 | 94 |
| Colby Morris R 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.10 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.74 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.64 | 4.10 | 105 | 93 |
| Ricky Castro R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .287 | 4.87 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 95 | +0.85 | 4.02 | 158 | 92 |
| Brett Standlee R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.11 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 2.3% | .322 | 4.48 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 75 | +0.37 | 4.11 | 128 | 92 |
| Dylan Simmons R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.83 | 17.8% | 9.4% | 1.9% | .295 | 4.33 | 12.8% | 0.9% | 51 | +0.50 | 3.83 | 102 | 92 |
| Austin Ross R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 92 |
| Alex Palsha R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.2% | .288 | 3.83 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | -0.03 | 3.40 | 134 | 91 |
| Marcelo Perez R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.81 | 18.0% | 8.6% | 2.1% | .288 | 4.92 | 13.9% | 7.0% | 196 | +1.11 | 3.81 | 264 | 91 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.56 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.8% | .306 | 4.78 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.22 | 3.98 | 371 | 91 |
| Ben Anderson R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.87 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 4.1% | .309 | 4.00 | 16.2% | 7.7% | 147 | -0.87 | 3.79 | 314 | 91 |
| Tyler Schoff R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.28 | 19.6% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .350 | 3.71 | 23.8% | 15.7% | 93 | -0.57 | 3.68 | 147 | 91 |
| Miguel Guerrero R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.56 | 18.1% | 10.3% | 3.1% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 171 | 90 |
| Colby Blueberg R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.44 | 17.7% | 11.0% | 2.6% | .310 | 3.81 | 21.6% | 10.6% | 110 | -0.63 | 2.36 | 229 | 90 |
| Matt Anderson R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.87 | 17.4% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .288 | 2.99 | 17.5% | 10.7% | 62 | -0.88 | 2.99 | 129 | 90 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.16 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .262 | 4.19 | 16.8% | 7.5% | 66 | +0.03 | 4.16 | 135 | 90 |
| Brett McKinney R 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.75 | 17.1% | 8.9% | 3.6% | .335 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 8.5% | 129 | -0.77 | 3.43 | 183 | 90 |
| Matt Pierpont R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.25 | 17.8% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .295 | 3.25 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 190 | -1.00 | 2.79 | 280 | 90 |
| Johnny Barbato R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.59 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.24 | 21.6% | 11.4% | 167 | +0.65 | 2.57 | 304 | 89 |
| Brian Glowicki R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.93 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 2.2% | .254 | 3.71 | 22.4% | 14.4% | 89 | -0.22 | 2.30 | 189 | 89 |
| Joan Gregorio R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.32 | 18.0% | 10.2% | 2.6% | .269 | 4.21 | 21.1% | 11.1% | 208 | -0.11 | 3.71 | 301 | 89 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.5M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.8M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2037 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $3M | $6M | +$3M | ||