Jacob Denner — OGILVIE

Jacob Denner P Everett AquaSox

Age 25 LHP 6'0" / 195 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 27 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103111vR 119

ERA4.51

FIP4.51

K%19.1%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%11.3%

ROS IP28

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	47	195	46	12	3	0%	1.9	16.7%	7.5%	9.2%	1.9%	3.66	3.66	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	47	195	46	12	3	0%	1.9	16.7%	7.5%	9.2%	1.9%	3.66	3.66	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	0	47	195	46	12	3	0%	1.9	23.6%	6.2%	17.4%	1.5%	3.66	2.74	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	3	3	12	52	17	4	2	100%	3.9	25.2%	8.8%	16.3%	4.8%	3.86	4.73	—
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	3	3	12	52	17	4	2	100%	3.9	25.2%	8.8%	16.3%	4.8%	3.86	4.73	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	SEA	3	3	12	52	17	4	2	100%	3.9	32.7%	7.7%	25.0%	3.8%	3.86	3.42	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	SEA	40	0	42	177	36	14	5	0%	1.1	20.0%	8.0%	12.1%	3.0%	4.47	4.45	+0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	SEA	17	0	18	76	15	6	2	0%	1.1	20.0%	8.0%	12.1%	3.0%	4.47	4.45	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	18	76	15	6	2	0%	1.1	20.0%	8.0%	12.1%	3.0%	4.47	4.07	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	166	66	22	0%	1.1	20.0%	8.0%	12.1%	3.0%	4.47	4.07	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		28	3	58	247	46	19	6	11%	2.1	18.5%	7.8%	10.7%	2.5%	3.70	3.89	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		96	10	200	847	157	66	21	11%	2.1	18.5%	7.8%	10.7%	2.5%	3.70	3.89	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Denner (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	19.1%	7.9%	3.0%	—	4.45	20.0%	12.1%	42	-0.06	—	—	—
Jake Kalish L 2016 · 3.89 FIP	25	SU	3.89	17.8%	6.9%	2.6%	.231	3.90	17.0%	11.9%	352	+0.01	2.68	740	85
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	82
Braulio Lara L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SU	3.96	16.7%	8.7%	2.1%	.367	5.20	18.9%	3.9%	67	+1.24	3.96	118	81
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	80
Williams Jerez L 2017 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	17.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.294	3.81	24.0%	15.1%	127	-0.24	3.58	364	80
Hayden Howard L 2019 · 3.76 FIP	25	SU	3.76	17.5%	8.4%	1.9%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	200	79
Ryan Sherriff L 2015 · 4.27 FIP	25	SU	4.27	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.317	3.28	18.8%	11.9%	135	-0.99	2.96	245	79
Nolan Becker L 2016 · 4.17 FIP	25	SU	4.17	13.9%	7.5%	2.4%	.313	5.41	18.9%	14.6%	13	+1.24	3.71	105	78
Brad Kuntz L 2017 · 4.27 FIP	25	SU	4.27	17.4%	7.6%	3.0%	.280	4.10	20.9%	9.2%	54	-0.17	2.35	197	78
Paul Fry L 2017 · 4.66 FIP	25	SU	4.66	21.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.338	3.43	24.6%	14.6%	159	-1.23	1.78	560	78
Mac Lardner L 2023 · 3.66 FIP	25	SU	3.66	17.5%	9.4%	1.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	186	78
Brian Clark L 2018 · 3.78 FIP	25	SU	3.78	19.6%	8.2%	2.4%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	248	78
Greg Nappo L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	26	SU	3.37	22.7%	7.5%	2.2%	.267	5.25	16.5%	5.9%	79	+1.88	3.37	144	78
Robbie Ross Jr. L 2015 · 3.77 FIP	26	SU	3.77	20.5%	6.9%	2.8%	.287	3.21	22.3%	9.6%	66	-0.56	2.81	159	77
David Rollins L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	25	SU	3.78	17.8%	5.9%	2.6%	.391	4.76	16.9%	10.5%	107	+0.98	3.59	132	77
Jordan Jess L 2018 · 3.64 FIP	25	SU	3.64	19.3%	5.3%	2.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	136	77
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	77
Matt Whitehouse L 2016 · 3.37 FIP	25	SU	3.37	19.0%	9.9%	1.1%	.304	4.46	16.9%	7.4%	276	+1.09	3.37	353	76
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	76
Scott Alexander L 2015 · 3.51 FIP	26	SU	3.51	17.6%	6.7%	1.9%	.240	3.30	19.9%	10.8%	184	-0.21	2.90	426	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	35	19.7%	7.9%	1.17	4.49
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43