Jacob Denner
P
Everett AquaSox
Age 25
LHP
6'0" / 195 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION12 act + 28 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100109vR 118
ERA4.36
FIP4.36
K%22.0%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%13.4%
ROS IP28
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 0 | 47 | 195 | 46 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.9 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 1.8% | 3.66 | 3.63 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 0 | 47 | 195 | 46 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.9 | 23.6% | 6.2% | 17.4% | 1.5% | 3.66 | 2.74 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 3 | 3 | 12 | 52 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 3.9 | 25.2% | 8.8% | 16.3% | 4.8% | 3.86 | 4.73 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SEA | 5 | 5 | 28 | 117 | 26 | 10 | 4 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.0% | 8.6% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.0% | 8.6% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.36 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 39 | 169 | 43 | 14 | 6 | — | — | 25.3% | 8.3% | 17.0% | 3.3% | 4.21 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.0% | 8.6% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 3.98 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 26 | 0 | 28 | 117 | 26 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.33 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 3.95 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 189 | 1 | 200 | 844 | 182 | 66 | 33 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 3.95 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 28 | 3 | 58 | 247 | 46 | 19 | 6 | 11% | 2.1 | 18.5% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 2.4% | 3.70 | 3.86 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 96 | 10 | 200 | 847 | 157 | 66 | 21 | 11% | 2.1 | 18.5% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 2.4% | 3.70 | 3.86 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jacob Denner (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 22.0% | 8.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.33 | 22.4% | 13.7% | 28 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Sean Mellen L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 82 |
| Jake Kalish L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.96 | 17.8% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .231 | 3.85 | 17.0% | 11.9% | 352 | -0.11 | 2.68 | 740 | 81 |
| Greg Nappo L 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.40 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .267 | 5.45 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +2.05 | 3.40 | 144 | 80 |
| Will Gilbert L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 141 | 80 |
| Colton Johnson L 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 78 |
| Brandon Hughes L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.62 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.5% | .300 | 4.49 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 149 | +0.87 | 3.62 | 206 | 78 |
| Kit Scheetz L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.45 | 22.9% | 8.7% | 4.0% | .340 | 5.20 | 16.2% | 2.6% | 55 | +0.75 | 2.34 | 195 | 78 |
| Paul Fry L 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.00 | 21.2% | 11.7% | 4.0% | .338 | 3.46 | 24.6% | 14.6% | 159 | -1.54 | 1.78 | 560 | 78 |
| Jackson Lancaster L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.45 | 24.0% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .355 | 5.10 | 17.6% | 4.9% | 78 | +0.65 | 4.28 | 127 | 78 |
| Braulio Lara L 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.10 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .367 | 5.20 | 18.9% | 3.9% | 67 | +1.10 | 4.10 | 118 | 77 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.72 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.53 | 2.79 | 159 | 77 |
| Brian Clark L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.85 | 19.6% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 248 | 77 |
| Williams Jerez L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.98 | 17.8% | 8.7% | 2.3% | .294 | 3.84 | 24.0% | 15.1% | 127 | -0.14 | 3.54 | 364 | 77 |
| Carson Skipper L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.65 | 19.9% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .301 | 7.84 | 8.3% | -4.8% | 10 | +4.19 | 2.87 | 186 | 77 |
| Michael Theofanopoulos L 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.66 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 201 | 77 |
| Jerry Vasto L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.92 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 2.5% | .382 | 3.44 | 24.0% | 12.5% | 38 | -0.48 | 2.84 | 206 | 76 |
| Hayden Howard L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.77 | 17.5% | 8.4% | 2.0% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 200 | 76 |
| Darien Núñez L 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.18 | 26.4% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .377 | 2.59 | 34.2% | 23.5% | 78 | -0.59 | 2.50 | 122 | 76 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .276 | 3.94 | 26.5% | 12.9% | 82 | -0.23 | 2.83 | 271 | 76 |
| Gabriel Sequeira L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.30 | 21.0% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .276 | 5.09 | 23.0% | 2.4% | 14 | +1.79 | 2.65 | 160 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 28 | 22.2% | 8.6% | 1.16 | 4.35 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |