Jacob Denner
P
Everett AquaSox
+0.3
WAR
Age 25
LHP
6'0" / 195 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.36
FIP4.36
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.0%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%13.4%
IP40
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 25 | 0 | 47 | 195 | 46 | 12 | 3 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 1.8% | 3.66 | 3.65 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 1 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.08 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SEA | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 37 | 14 | 5 | 22.0% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 44 | 187 | 43 | 14 | 6 | 23.0% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 4.14 | 3.93 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 37 | 14 | 5 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.34 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 37 | 14 | 5 | 22.5% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 39 | — | 39 | 164 | 37 | 14 | 5 | 22.5% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 4.36 | 4.37 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 36 | 14 | 5 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.41 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 34 | 14 | 5 | 22.2% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 33 | 14 | 5 | 21.9% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 31 | 13 | 5 | 21.6% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 4.59 | 4.64 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 29 | 13 | 5 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 4.68 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 31 | — | 31 | 131 | 27 | 13 | 5 | 21.0% | 9.6% | 3.5% | 4.78 | 4.84 | +0.0 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | SEA | 29 | — | 29 | 123 | 25 | 12 | 4 | 20.6% | 9.8% | 3.6% | 4.89 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 26 | 1 | 51 | 214 | 39 | 15 | 5 | 18.1% | 6.9% | 2.1% | 3.53 | 3.63 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 102 | 4 | 200 | 839 | 153 | 59 | 20 | 18.1% | 6.9% | 2.1% | 3.53 | 3.63 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jacob Denner (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 22.0% | 8.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.35 | 22.4% | 13.7% | 118 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Elvis Araujo L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.16 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.20 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.04 | 2.45 | 120 | 87 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2027 · 3.35 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.35 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.92 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.57 | 3.35 | 147 | 86 |
| Mason Melotakis L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.29 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .379 | 4.39 | 18.2% | 7.1% | 80 | +1.10 | 3.29 | 142 | 85 |
| Gabriel Sequeira L 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.21 | 21.0% | 8.8% | 1.4% | .276 | 4.94 | 23.0% | 2.4% | 14 | +1.73 | 2.63 | 160 | 84 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.64 | 2.79 | 159 | 84 |
| Jackson Lancaster L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.47 | 24.0% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .355 | 4.16 | 19.5% | 9.2% | 53 | -0.31 | 4.16 | 101 | 84 |
| Jake Kalish L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.87 | 17.8% | 6.9% | 2.6% | .231 | 3.89 | 17.0% | 11.9% | 352 | +0.02 | 2.68 | 740 | 84 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.29 | 21.7% | 9.4% | 1.5% | .331 | 3.71 | 18.1% | 10.1% | 167 | +0.42 | 3.12 | 310 | 83 |
| Greg Nappo L 2027 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.36 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 5.28 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +1.92 | 3.36 | 144 | 83 |
| Haylen Green L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.09 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 82 |
| Sean Mellen L 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 81 |
| Ryan Sherriff L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.27 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .317 | 3.29 | 18.8% | 11.9% | 135 | -0.98 | 2.97 | 245 | 81 |
| Colton Johnson L 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 81 |
| Jared Tobey L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.05 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 2.7% | .341 | 8.17 | 20.1% | 1.1% | 25 | +4.12 | 3.97 | 158 | 81 |
| Brandon Hughes L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.63 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.6% | .300 | 4.62 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 149 | +0.99 | 3.63 | 206 | 81 |
| Will Gilbert L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.40 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 141 | 81 |
| Carson Skipper L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.79 | 19.9% | 9.1% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 176 | 80 |
| Jordan Jess L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.63 | 19.3% | 5.3% | 2.7% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 136 | 80 |
| Paul Fry L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.71 | 21.2% | 11.7% | 3.5% | .338 | 3.49 | 24.6% | 14.6% | 159 | -1.22 | 1.78 | 560 | 80 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2029 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 80 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.1M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $11M | $4M | -$7M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.