Ismael Luciano

P Spokane Indians

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 170 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	21	9	82	6.12	4.30	21.9%	11.9%	—	K 15.4% · BB 14.5% · FIP 5.55
2025	22	MIX2 levels	23	7	63	5.60	4.06	16.1%	13.0%	—	K 11.5% · BB 15.2% · FIP 4.97
2026	23	MIX2 levels	30	0	43	7.53	4.66	22.6%	17.5%	—	K 16.3% · BB 20.8% · FIP 5.69
2027PROJ	24	MLBCOL	54	0	57	6.64	6.64	11.5%	20.0%	-1.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBCOL	24	0	25	6.25	6.14	14.0%	17.7%	-0.4
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBCOL	36	0	38	6.00	5.93	15.5%	17.0%	-0.5

Next 3 projected WAR -2.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff25Control30Command20

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsTed Stuka (age 24) · Carlos Polanco (age 23) · Blake Hickman (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 159151vR 143

ERA6.64

FIP6.64

K%11.5%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-8.5%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2525

CTRL3030

CMD2020

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	16	3	22	101	24	9	6	19%	1.4	16.2%	11.1%	5.0%	7.3%	7.36	7.16	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	16	3	22	101	24	9	6	19%	1.4	23.8%	8.9%	14.9%	5.9%	7.36	5.69	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	11	10	48	212	49	25	3	91%	4.4	15.7%	14.7%	1.0%	1.6%	4.31	4.52	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	11	10	48	212	49	25	3	91%	4.4	23.1%	11.8%	11.3%	1.4%	4.31	3.43	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	8	5	16	72	13	8	2	62%	2.0	12.3%	13.9%	-1.6%	3.8%	6.19	5.89	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	8	5	16	72	13	8	2	62%	2.0	18.1%	11.1%	6.9%	2.8%	6.19	4.60	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	9	82	379	83	45	10	43%	3.9	15.4%	14.5%	0.8%	3.5%	6.12	5.55	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	9	82	379	83	45	10	43%	3.9	15.4%	14.5%	0.8%	3.5%	6.12	5.55	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	9	82	379	83	45	10	43%	3.9	21.9%	11.9%	10.0%	2.6%	6.12	4.30	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	7	63	299	48	39	3	30%	2.7	11.5%	15.2%	-3.8%	1.7%	5.60	4.97	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	7	63	299	48	39	3	30%	2.7	11.5%	15.2%	-3.8%	1.7%	5.60	4.97	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	7	63	299	48	39	3	30%	2.7	16.1%	13.0%	3.0%	1.0%	5.60	4.06	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	43	212	48	37	4	0%	1.4	16.3%	20.8%	-4.5%	2.4%	7.53	5.69	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	43	212	48	37	4	0%	1.4	16.3%	20.8%	-4.5%	2.4%	7.53	5.69	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	43	212	48	37	4	0%	1.4	22.6%	17.5%	5.2%	1.9%	7.53	4.66	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	COL	54	0	57	241	28	48	7	0%	1.1	11.5%	20.0%	-8.5%	2.9%	6.64	6.64	-1.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	COL	55	0	58	244	34	43	7	0%	1.1	14.0%	17.7%	-3.7%	2.9%	6.25	6.14	-0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	COL	55	0	58	244	38	42	7	0%	1.1	15.5%	17.0%	-1.5%	2.9%	6.00	5.93	-0.8
2028	25	MLB CTX	COL	24	0	25	106	15	19	3	0%	1.0	14.0%	17.7%	-3.7%	2.9%	6.25	6.14	-0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	COL	36	0	38	160	25	27	5	0%	1.1	15.5%	17.0%	-1.5%	2.9%	6.00	5.93	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	267	40	46	8	0%	1.1	14.9%	17.3%	-2.4%	2.9%	6.10	5.63	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	126	145	25	0%	1.1	14.9%	17.3%	-2.4%	2.9%	6.10	5.63	-2.5
Career	—	MLE		109	34	274	1275	186	197	37	31%	2.5	14.6%	15.5%	-0.9%	2.9%	6.01	5.41	-1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		80	25	200	931	135	144	27	31%	2.5	14.6%	15.5%	-0.9%	2.9%	6.01	5.41	-3.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ismael Luciano (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.64	11.5%	20.0%	2.9%	—	6.04	14.8%	-2.6%	116	-0.60	—	—	—
Ted Stuka R 2021 · 5.72 FIP	24	SW	5.72	12.4%	23.4%	1.3%	.262	6.22	15.9%	-13.1%	41	+0.50	5.36	105	84
Carlos Polanco R 2017 · 5.71 FIP	23	SU	5.71	13.9%	20.0%	2.3%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	276	81
Blake Hickman R 2018 · 6.57 FIP	24	SW	6.57	12.9%	17.8%	4.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	156	80
Dylan Rheault R 2015 · 5.75 FIP	23	SU	5.75	6.5%	14.9%	2.4%	.288	4.11	14.1%	4.8%	96	-1.64	3.88	198	78
Tom Reisinger R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	23	SW	5.44	12.1%	14.6%	2.8%	.381	6.49	10.3%	-5.6%	47	+1.05	5.44	110	78
Johendí Jiminian R 2017 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	11.5%	14.0%	3.3%	.300	4.77	13.9%	3.6%	164	-0.93	4.01	419	78
Frankie De La Cruz R 2008 · 7.16 FIP	24	SW	7.16	7.5%	20.8%	3.8%	.361	2.87	16.4%	7.3%	13	-4.29	2.87	262	78
Austin Amaral R 2024 · 5.94 FIP	22	SU	5.94	12.1%	14.4%	3.7%	.254	3.55	18.6%	6.3%	113	-2.39	3.53	136	77
Kane Davis R 2000 · 7.22 FIP	25	SW	7.22	4.7%	15.3%	4.7%	.359	4.70	18.8%	8.9%	82	-2.52	3.40	125	76
German Taveras R 2016 · 6.41 FIP	23	SU	6.41	10.9%	15.7%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	108	76
Taylor Hawkins R 2017 · 5.98 FIP	23	SU	5.98	7.4%	19.5%	1.9%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	5.38	112	76
Drew Conover R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	23	SW	6.25	15.6%	29.8%	1.3%	.272	5.19	12.6%	-3.4%	106	-1.06	4.49	145	75
Pedro Garcia R 2018 · 6.06 FIP	23	SW	6.06	12.6%	24.0%	1.8%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	144	75
Jason Bonilla R 2023 · 7.04 FIP	24	SW	7.04	12.5%	30.0%	2.2%	.171	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	123	75
Noah Takacs R 2024 · 5.77 FIP	22	SU	5.77	12.5%	16.4%	3.0%	.301	5.68	13.4%	-2.3%	91	-0.09	5.25	130	75
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	74
Vanny Valenzuela R 2015 · 6.82 FIP	27	SW	6.82	12.4%	14.8%	5.3%	.314	4.29	15.8%	4.6%	70	-2.53	3.26	118	73
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	73
Zach Willeman R 2019 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	10.8%	15.0%	2.7%	.296	4.98	21.3%	7.8%	108	-0.59	4.05	264	72
Kelvin Vasquez R 2017 · 6.26 FIP	24	SU	6.26	15.0%	23.2%	2.7%	.247	5.06	14.5%	-0.2%	48	-1.20	5.01	180	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	13.7%	18.2%	1.13	6.30
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*