Hansel Rincon

P Hudson Valley Renegades

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 160 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	19	ROKACL D-backs B…	10	6	37	7.61	3.10	16.4%	3.0%	—	K 11.1% · BB 3.8% · FIP 4.11
2023	20	MIX2 levels	18	0	36	3.53	2.74	23.4%	10.1%	—	K 16.9% · BB 11.2% · FIP 3.67
2026	23	A+NYY	40	0	44	3.48	2.78	30.5%	11.5%	—	K 23.5% · BB 13.2% · FIP 3.82
2027PROJ	24	MLBNYY	25	0	26	4.63	4.63	23.5%	12.4%	-0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBNYY	16	0	17	4.52	4.46	23.8%	11.3%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsGarrett Mock (age 25) · Tyler Mitzel (age 23) · Jonathan Papelbon (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.63

FIP4.63

K%23.5%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%11.0%

Proj IP26

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs 1	15	11	53	211	55	3	3	73%	3.5	17.7%	1.8%	15.9%	2.1%	3.42	3.00	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs 1	15	11	53	211	55	3	3	73%	3.5	26.1%	1.4%	24.6%	1.4%	3.42	1.92	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Black	10	6	37	165	27	5	3	60%	3.7	11.1%	3.8%	7.3%	2.7%	7.61	4.11	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs Black	10	6	37	165	27	5	3	60%	3.7	16.4%	3.0%	13.3%	1.8%	7.61	3.10	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	36	158	37	16	1	0%	2.0	16.9%	11.2%	5.7%	1.1%	3.53	3.67	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	0	36	158	37	16	1	0%	2.0	23.4%	10.1%	13.3%	0.6%	3.53	2.74	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	40	0	44	200	61	23	3	0%	1.1	23.5%	13.2%	10.3%	1.9%	3.48	3.82	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	40	0	44	200	61	23	3	0%	1.1	23.5%	13.2%	10.3%	1.9%	3.48	3.82	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	40	0	44	200	61	23	3	0%	1.1	30.5%	11.5%	19.0%	1.5%	3.48	2.78	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	NYY	25	0	26	110	26	14	3	0%	1.0	23.5%	12.4%	11.0%	2.8%	4.63	4.63	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYY	38	0	40	169	40	19	5	0%	1.1	23.8%	11.3%	12.5%	2.8%	4.52	4.46	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYY	16	0	17	72	17	8	2	0%	1.1	23.8%	11.3%	12.5%	2.8%	4.52	4.46	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	0	17	73	17	8	2	0%	1.1	23.8%	11.3%	12.5%	2.8%	4.52	4.08	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	197	93	23	0%	1.1	23.8%	11.3%	12.5%	2.8%	4.52	4.08	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		83	17	169	734	129	54	14	20%	2.0	17.6%	7.4%	10.3%	2.0%	4.37	3.62	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		98	20	200	869	153	64	17	20%	2.0	17.6%	7.4%	10.3%	2.0%	4.37	3.62	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hansel Rincon (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	23.5%	12.4%	2.8%	—	4.46	23.8%	12.5%	40	-0.17	—	—	—
Garrett Mock R 2008 · 3.57 FIP	25	SU	3.57	25.6%	11.1%	2.2%	.300	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	91	+0.49	3.57	132	88
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	87
Jonathan Papelbon R 2005 · 3.93 FIP	24	SW	3.93	23.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.305	1.90	31.3%	26.8%	196	-2.03	1.33	726	87
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	86
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	86
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	86
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	85
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	84
Grant Balfour R 2003 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	26.1%	10.4%	3.5%	.275	3.79	24.4%	12.8%	39	-0.34	2.04	533	84
Todd Wellemeyer R 2003 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	24.6%	14.8%	4.1%	.290	4.56	18.9%	4.8%	135	-0.58	3.35	615	84
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	84
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.74	25.9%	15.2%	147	-0.60	2.97	194	84
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	83
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	83
Kyle Schepel R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	23.1%	10.7%	3.9%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.99	3.54	156	83
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	83
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	83
Garrett Apker R 2024 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	19.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.288	8.46	15.4%	-7.6%	11	+4.45	4.01	101	83
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	83
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.17	28.8%	15.2%	112	-0.85	3.14	173	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	33	23.7%	11.8%	1.10	4.56
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*