Alexander Beltre

P FCL Cardinals

Age 24 LHP 6'1" / 169 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	20	ROKSTL	9	3	15	2.45	4.46	22.7%	12.1%	—	K 15.5% · BB 15.2% · FIP 6.04
2024	21	ROKSTL	12	0	12	4.63	3.44	22.2%	9.3%	—	K 15.1% · BB 11.6% · FIP 4.75
2027PROJ	24	MLBSTL	7	0	7	4.39	4.39	23.1%	9.6%	0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBSTL	9	0	9	4.33	4.30	23.5%	9.2%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsSean Mellen (age 24) · Harry Gustin (age 22) · Ryan Rowland-Smith (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 117

ERA4.39

FIP4.39

K%23.1%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%13.5%

Proj IP7

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 7 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals Blue	24	2	39	192	44	28	6	8%	1.6	15.6%	18.2%	-2.6%	4.2%	7.85	6.42	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals Blue	24	2	39	192	44	28	6	8%	1.6	22.9%	14.6%	8.3%	3.1%	7.85	5.00	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	10	8	40	167	46	13	0	80%	4.0	18.7%	9.7%	9.0%	0.0%	2.01	2.75	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	10	8	40	167	46	13	0	80%	4.0	27.5%	7.8%	19.8%	0.0%	2.01	1.79	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	9	3	15	66	15	8	2	33%	1.6	15.5%	15.2%	0.3%	4.2%	2.45	6.04	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	9	3	15	66	15	8	2	33%	1.6	22.7%	12.1%	10.6%	3.0%	2.45	4.46	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	12	0	12	54	12	5	1	0%	1.0	15.1%	11.6%	3.5%	2.7%	4.63	4.75	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	12	0	12	54	12	5	1	0%	1.0	15.1%	11.6%	3.5%	2.7%	4.63	4.75	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	12	0	12	54	12	5	1	0%	1.0	22.2%	9.3%	13.0%	1.9%	4.63	3.44	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	STL	7	0	7	30	7	3	1	0%	1.0	23.1%	9.6%	13.5%	3.0%	4.39	4.39	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	STL	19	0	20	84	20	8	3	0%	1.1	23.5%	9.2%	14.3%	3.0%	4.33	4.30	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	STL	9	0	9	38	9	4	1	0%	1.0	23.5%	9.2%	14.3%	3.0%	4.33	4.30	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	3	1	0%	1.1	23.5%	9.2%	14.3%	3.0%	4.33	3.92	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	70	23	0%	1.1	23.5%	9.2%	14.3%	3.0%	4.33	3.92	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		55	13	106	479	80	68	12	24%	1.9	16.6%	14.1%	2.5%	2.6%	4.51	4.90	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		104	25	200	907	151	128	23	24%	1.9	16.6%	14.1%	2.5%	2.6%	4.51	4.90	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alexander Beltre (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.39	23.1%	9.6%	3.0%	—	4.30	23.5%	14.3%	20	-0.09	—	—	—
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	79
Harry Gustin L 2024 · 3.91 FIP	22	SU	3.91	20.7%	11.0%	2.1%	.331	4.33	22.9%	12.7%	109	+0.42	3.70	152	79
Ryan Rowland-Smith L 2007 · 3.35 FIP	24	SU	3.35	25.0%	8.3%	2.4%	.324	4.89	12.7%	4.4%	324	+1.54	3.35	363	77
Daniel Schlereth L 2010 · 3.59 FIP	24	SU	3.59	21.8%	8.0%	2.4%	.305	4.64	20.8%	7.6%	49	+1.05	3.06	130	77
Jonathan Sánchez L 2007 · 4.18 FIP	24	SU	4.18	26.1%	11.3%	3.4%	.348	3.85	24.3%	13.1%	515	-0.33	3.65	895	77
Brandon Hughes L 2021 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	27.0%	11.1%	2.7%	.300	4.59	24.3%	15.3%	149	+0.91	3.68	206	76
Will Ohman L 2001 · 4.66 FIP	23	SU	4.66	22.2%	11.1%	3.7%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	350	76
Mike Zagurski L 2007 · 4.10 FIP	24	SU	4.10	20.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	76
Houston Harding L 2022 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	20.2%	10.5%	4.7%	.307	4.87	17.3%	4.9%	158	-0.43	3.41	239	75
Easton Lucas L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	23.6%	9.2%	3.7%	.316	4.00	21.5%	11.9%	184	-0.29	3.38	311	75
Pedro Feliciano L 2003 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.7%	8.3%	2.3%	.309	3.52	20.2%	11.1%	79	-0.22	2.69	378	75
Brian Marconi L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	24	SU	3.89	25.3%	12.3%	2.5%	.265	5.02	20.3%	2.1%	57	+1.13	3.89	101	75
Darien Núñez L 2018 · 3.27 FIP	25	SU	3.27	26.4%	11.0%	1.8%	.377	2.59	34.2%	23.5%	78	-0.68	2.48	122	74
Randy Labaut L 2021 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	23.2%	14.0%	3.7%	.240	4.66	19.4%	5.9%	190	-0.29	1.91	302	74
Graeme Stinson L 2022 · 3.56 FIP	24	SU	3.56	23.0%	10.5%	1.9%	.275	4.85	19.5%	3.9%	45	+1.29	3.56	146	74
Luis Perez L 2011 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	18.4%	8.8%	3.1%	.317	3.32	22.3%	13.2%	42	-1.03	3.32	173	74
Brendon Little L 2021 · 3.76 FIP	24	SU	3.76	24.7%	11.4%	2.4%	.333	4.03	20.1%	9.1%	187	+0.27	2.63	506	73
Jared Tobey L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	21.0%	12.1%	2.1%	.320	5.43	22.4%	8.2%	73	+1.44	3.99	158	73
Michael Johnson L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	24	SU	3.92	20.6%	9.4%	2.5%	.260	4.70	17.6%	7.7%	185	+0.78	3.92	256	73
Fred Schlichtholz L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	12.8%	2.6%	.368	4.13	18.5%	8.4%	80	-0.10	3.49	175	73