Carlos Rodriguez

P Nashville Sounds

Age 25 RHP 5'11" / 203 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	28	25	142	4.75	4.16	22.8%	10.6%	1.2	K 19.8% · BB 9.6% · FIP 4.54
2025	23	MIX3 levels	23	17	94	4.13	3.92	23.3%	11.3%	1.1	K 20.9% · BB 11.1% · FIP 3.99
2026	24	MIX3 levels	27	12	63	8.14	5.59	18.3%	15.0%	-0.8	K 15.8% · BB 14.3% · FIP 5.54
2027PROJ	25	MLBMIL	28	28	162	4.96	5.26	18.0%	12.8%	-0.7
2028PROJ48% MLB	26	MLBMIL	14	14	82	5.00	5.10	19.0%	12.2%	-0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	27	MLBMIL	19	19	113	5.01	5.07	19.2%	12.0%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.6 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control45Command45FB velo40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsCarlos Torres (age 26) · Alfredo Figaro (age 25) · Ryan Jensen (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA4.96

FIP5.26

K%18.0%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%5.2%

Proj IP162

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 162 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD4045

K†4045

CT+0.6 (27%)

SL (8%)

CU (1%)

FB (27%)

CH-0.9 (37%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	20	108	428	129	40	7	77%	4.1	22.6%	10.9%	11.7%	1.9%	3.01	3.60	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	20	108	428	129	40	7	77%	4.1	30.1%	9.3%	20.8%	1.6%	3.01	2.66	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	128	539	158	57	10	100%	4.9	23.9%	11.3%	12.6%	2.2%	2.88	3.73	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	128	539	158	57	10	100%	4.9	29.3%	10.6%	18.7%	1.9%	2.88	2.98	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	25	142	606	138	64	18	89%	5.1	19.8%	9.6%	10.2%	3.5%	4.75	4.54	+0.6
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	25	142	606	138	64	18	89%	5.1	19.8%	9.6%	10.2%	3.5%	4.75	4.54	+0.6
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	25	142	606	138	64	18	89%	5.1	22.8%	10.6%	12.2%	3.0%	4.75	4.16	+1.2
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	17	94	416	97	47	10	74%	4.1	20.9%	11.1%	9.8%	2.3%	4.13	3.99	+1.0
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	17	94	416	97	47	10	74%	4.1	20.9%	11.1%	9.8%	2.3%	4.13	3.99	+1.0
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	17	94	416	97	47	10	74%	4.1	23.3%	11.3%	12.0%	2.4%	4.13	3.92	+1.1
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	12	63	327	60	49	10	44%	2.3	15.8%	14.3%	1.5%	3.6%	8.14	5.54	-0.7
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	12	63	327	60	49	10	44%	2.3	15.8%	14.3%	1.5%	3.6%	8.14	5.54	-0.7
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	12	63	327	60	49	10	44%	2.3	18.3%	15.0%	3.4%	3.1%	8.14	5.59	-0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			11	3	31	149	28	16	5	27%	2.8	18.8%	10.7%	8.1%	3.4%	6.03	4.92	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	MIL	28	28	162	684	123	87	21	100%	5.8	18.0%	12.8%	5.2%	3.1%	4.96	5.26	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIL	28	28	169	714	136	87	22	100%	6.0	19.0%	12.2%	6.8%	3.1%	5.00	5.10	-0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIL	28	28	170	720	139	86	22	100%	6.1	19.2%	12.0%	7.3%	3.1%	5.01	5.07	-0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIL	28	28	170	720	139	86	23	100%	6.1	19.3%	11.9%	7.3%	3.2%	5.06	5.11	-0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIL	27	27	163	687	129	83	23	100%	6.0	18.7%	12.0%	6.7%	3.3%	5.17	5.25	-0.6
2032	30	MLB MLE	MIL	26	26	153	646	117	80	23	100%	5.9	18.0%	12.3%	5.7%	3.5%	5.34	5.46	-1.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	82	346	66	42	11	100%	5.9	19.0%	12.2%	6.8%	3.1%	5.00	5.10	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIL	19	19	113	477	92	57	15	100%	5.9	19.2%	12.0%	7.3%	3.1%	5.01	5.07	-0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIL	22	22	132	557	107	66	18	100%	6.0	19.3%	11.9%	7.3%	3.2%	5.06	5.11	-0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIL	22	22	135	570	107	69	19	100%	6.1	18.7%	12.0%	6.7%	3.3%	5.17	5.25	-0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	MIL	22	22	133	562	101	69	20	100%	6.0	18.0%	12.3%	5.7%	3.5%	5.34	5.46	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		110	102	625	2654	500	319	87	93%	5.7	18.8%	12.0%	6.8%	3.3%	5.18	4.83	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	33	200	850	160	102	28	93%	5.7	18.8%	12.0%	6.8%	3.3%	5.18	4.83	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		130	100	535	2316	484	258	62	77%	4.1	20.9%	11.2%	9.7%	2.7%	4.24	4.22	-2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	37	200	866	181	97	23	77%	4.1	20.9%	11.2%	9.7%	2.7%	4.24	4.22	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.26	18.0%	12.8%	3.1%	—	5.09	19.2%	7.1%	510	-0.17	—	—	—
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	83
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	80
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	78
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2014 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	20.5%	13.3%	2.3%	.208	3.88	19.8%	10.2%	210	-0.44	3.22	242	78
Denny Bautista R 2006 · 4.71 FIP	25	SP-	4.71	13.9%	10.8%	2.6%	.298	4.58	17.5%	3.3%	74	-0.13	3.38	238	77
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	76
Joel Hanrahan R 2007 · 5.58 FIP	25	SP	5.58	17.4%	15.4%	3.6%	.318	3.06	27.8%	18.1%	218	-2.52	2.08	397	74
Cha Seung Baek R 2004 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP-	4.77	14.4%	7.2%	3.6%	.288	3.95	15.7%	10.0%	108	-0.82	3.35	280	73
Jason Grilli R 2001 · 5.93 FIP	24	SP	5.93	14.8%	9.6%	5.2%	.296	6.24	12.8%	2.9%	45	+0.31	2.00	678	73
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	73
Britt Reames R 2000 · 4.49 FIP	26	SP	4.49	18.2%	12.9%	2.4%	.230	4.35	21.9%	11.5%	163	-0.14	3.76	204	73
Burke Badenhop R 2008 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP-	4.67	16.1%	9.2%	3.2%	.308	3.13	18.0%	11.5%	203	-1.54	2.67	512	72
Alfredo Aceves R 2008 · 4.86 FIP	25	SP-	4.86	13.3%	8.3%	3.3%	.233	3.69	17.6%	10.9%	210	-1.17	3.53	541	71
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	284	71
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	71
Jake Bray R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	25	SP-	5.37	15.4%	11.2%	3.9%	.294	5.65	20.5%	7.7%	61	+0.28	2.51	198	71
Orlando Rodriguez R 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SP-	4.54	20.8%	10.1%	3.5%	.380	4.51	19.3%	7.9%	101	-0.03	4.40	119	71
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.80	19.8%	8.3%	116	-2.26	3.68	138	71
Michael Knorr R 2024 · 5.56 FIP	24	SP-	5.56	21.6%	12.5%	4.9%	.314	4.95	22.3%	9.7%	83	-0.61	4.30	181	71
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.1	170	18.7%	12.2%	1.24	5.12
Gene Dale ('11-'16, -1 WAR*)	2.2	148	17.7%*	12.6%*	1.45*	5.30*
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Don Black ('43-'48, 0 WAR*)	4.0	133	17.4%*	10.4%*	1.28*	5.32*
Tyler Green ('98)	1.9	128	15.4%	11.8%	1.10	5.16
Bill James ('11-'19, 2 WAR*)	5.9	169	16.0%*	11.3%*	1.03*	4.82*
Ian Snell ('10)	4.0	134	17.8%	10.4%	1.12	4.80