Adrian Quintana
P
Modesto Nuts
Age 23
RHP
6'0" / 175 lbs
A
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 149139vR 130
ERA5.78
FIP5.78
K%13.9%
BB%13.0%
K-BB%0.9%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Mariners | 12 | 11 | 59 | 224 | 64 | 9 | 3 | 92% | 4.9 | 19.4% | 5.0% | 14.4% | 1.9% | 1.97 | 3.12 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Mariners | 12 | 11 | 59 | 224 | 64 | 9 | 3 | 92% | 4.9 | 28.6% | 4.0% | 24.6% | 1.3% | 1.97 | 2.06 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 10 | 38 | 181 | 37 | 16 | 7 | 83% | 3.2 | 14.4% | 10.7% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 8.76 | 6.35 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 10 | 38 | 181 | 37 | 16 | 7 | 83% | 3.2 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 3.9% | 8.76 | 4.81 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 5 | 17 | 78 | 17 | 11 | 1 | 62% | 2.2 | 13.6% | 18.8% | -5.1% | 0.0% | 5.19 | 4.33 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 5 | 17 | 78 | 17 | 11 | 1 | 62% | 2.2 | 21.8% | 14.1% | 7.7% | 1.3% | 5.19 | 3.79 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 0 | 43 | 194 | 41 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 15.1% | 9.3% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.78 | 5.57 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 0 | 43 | 194 | 41 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 13.4% | 2.6% | 4.78 | 3.75 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Modesto Nuts | 36 | 0 | 49 | 216 | 43 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 14.7% | 12.6% | 2.2% | 5.8% | 4.41 | 6.64 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Modesto Nuts | 36 | 0 | 49 | 216 | 43 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 19.9% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 2.3% | 4.41 | 4.08 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | SEA | 50 | 0 | 52 | 221 | 31 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.9% | 13.0% | 0.9% | 3.3% | 5.78 | 5.78 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SEA | 51 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 36 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.9% | 12.1% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.52 | 5.45 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SEA | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 39 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.1% | 11.5% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 5.33 | 5.26 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 41 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 11.4% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 5.22 | 5.18 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SEA | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.9% | 12.1% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.52 | 5.45 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SEA | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 26 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.1% | 11.5% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 5.33 | 5.26 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 32 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 11.4% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 5.22 | 5.18 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 97 | 0 | 102 | 431 | 74 | 50 | 14 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.1% | 11.6% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 5.33 | 4.89 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 145 | 98 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.1% | 11.6% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 5.33 | 4.89 | +1.2 | ||
| Career | — | 96 | 26 | 207 | 893 | 141 | 91 | 36 | 27% | 2.2 | 15.8% | 10.1% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 4.65 | 5.26 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 93 | 25 | 200 | 863 | 137 | 87 | 35 | 27% | 2.2 | 15.8% | 10.1% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 4.65 | 5.26 | +0.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adrian Quintana (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.78 | 13.9% | 13.0% | 3.3% | — | 5.30 | 16.9% | 5.3% | 162 | -0.48 | — | — | — |
| Cole Percival R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.20 | 15.4% | 14.5% | 2.9% | .297 | 4.19 | 17.9% | 5.9% | 182 | -1.01 | 3.59 | 327 | 89 |
| Daniel Concepcion R 2025 · 5.38 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.38 | 13.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 110 | 85 |
| Raul Carrillo R 2026 · 5.57 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.57 | 11.1% | 11.2% | 3.6% | .364 | 4.54 | 10.8% | 1.4% | 169 | -1.03 | 4.33 | 348 | 85 |
| Ian Villers R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.59 | 13.2% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .311 | 4.12 | 15.6% | 5.2% | 59 | -0.47 | 4.12 | 107 | 85 |
| Blake Quinn R 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.32 | 16.9% | 15.3% | 3.1% | .328 | 4.28 | 17.1% | 3.3% | 48 | -1.04 | 4.28 | 122 | 85 |
| Kelvis Valerio R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.80 | 12.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .312 | 4.08 | 11.4% | 4.0% | 190 | -0.72 | 4.03 | 266 | 85 |
| Junior Rincon R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.93 | 17.8% | 13.8% | 2.9% | .318 | 3.77 | 17.6% | 5.1% | 82 | -1.16 | 3.50 | 113 | 85 |
| Everhett Hazelwood R 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.32 | 13.8% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .306 | 6.84 | 18.7% | 2.9% | 63 | +1.52 | 5.32 | 117 | 84 |
| Rogelio Martinez R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.15 | 10.0% | 9.7% | 3.0% | .304 | 5.56 | 11.6% | 4.4% | 73 | +0.41 | 5.15 | 152 | 84 |
| Jacinto Arredondo R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.22 | 14.4% | 12.7% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.89 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 50 | -0.33 | 4.89 | 101 | 84 |
| Jhonny Polanco R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.76 | 18.9% | 14.2% | 2.7% | .283 | 3.92 | 21.3% | 5.7% | 48 | -0.84 | 3.92 | 116 | 84 |
| Zach Nuding R 2028 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.09 | 12.5% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .236 | 4.99 | 12.6% | 3.3% | 106 | -0.10 | 4.99 | 146 | 83 |
| Alexis Rivero R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.75 | 13.2% | 11.6% | 2.4% | .261 | 7.01 | 12.9% | 3.3% | 24 | +2.26 | 3.75 | 280 | 83 |
| Nicholas Regalado R 2026 · 5.62 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.62 | 15.0% | 15.5% | 3.3% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 132 | 82 |
| Taylor Grover R 2027 · 5.40 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.40 | 15.1% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .229 | 4.26 | 18.7% | 9.1% | 150 | -1.14 | 3.63 | 239 | 82 |
| Simon Mercedes R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.87 | 14.3% | 11.7% | 2.7% | .309 | 5.14 | 16.4% | 3.9% | 60 | +0.27 | 4.87 | 139 | 82 |
| Brett Lockwood R 2027 · 5.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.51 | 16.2% | 15.5% | 3.3% | .312 | 4.61 | 11.0% | -6.3% | 79 | -0.90 | 4.29 | 132 | 82 |
| Matt Eckelman R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.77 | 15.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.48 | 17.4% | 5.7% | 97 | -0.29 | 4.10 | 386 | 81 |
| Jake McCasland R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.86 | 14.2% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .348 | 3.94 | 15.8% | 8.2% | 317 | -0.92 | 3.27 | 367 | 81 |
| Jake Johansen R 2027 · 5.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.59 | 15.8% | 12.8% | 4.0% | .351 | 4.21 | 13.6% | 3.0% | 114 | -1.38 | 3.69 | 162 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 54 | 16.2% | 12.0% | 1.26 | 5.46 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |