Adrian Quintana — OGILVIE

Adrian Quintana P Modesto Nuts

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 175 lbs A

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.70

FIP5.70

K%13.9%

BB%13.3%

K-BB%0.5%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	12	11	59	224	64	9	3	92%	4.9	19.4%	5.0%	14.4%	1.9%	1.97	3.12	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	12	11	59	224	64	9	3	92%	4.9	28.6%	4.0%	24.6%	1.3%	1.97	2.06	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	10	38	181	37	16	7	83%	3.2	14.4%	10.7%	3.7%	5.4%	8.76	6.22	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	10	38	181	37	16	7	83%	3.2	20.4%	8.8%	11.6%	3.9%	8.76	4.81	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	5	17	78	17	11	1	62%	2.2	13.6%	18.8%	-5.1%	0.0%	5.19	4.33	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	5	17	78	17	11	1	62%	2.2	13.6%	18.8%	-5.1%	0.0%	5.19	4.33	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	5	17	78	17	11	1	62%	2.2	21.8%	14.1%	7.7%	1.3%	5.19	3.79	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	43	194	41	15	5	0%	1.5	15.1%	9.3%	5.8%	4.0%	4.78	5.20	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	43	194	41	15	5	0%	1.5	15.1%	9.3%	5.8%	4.0%	4.78	5.20	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	43	194	41	15	5	0%	1.5	21.1%	7.7%	13.4%	2.6%	4.78	3.75	—
2025	22	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	36	0	49	216	43	23	5	0%	1.4	14.7%	12.6%	2.2%	4.0%	4.41	5.62	—
2025	22	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	36	0	49	216	43	23	5	0%	1.4	14.7%	12.6%	2.2%	4.0%	4.41	5.62	—
2025	22	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	36	0	49	216	43	23	5	0%	1.4	19.9%	10.6%	9.3%	2.3%	4.41	4.08	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	SEA	4	0	4	17	2	2	1	0%	1.0	13.9%	13.3%	0.5%	3.1%	5.70	5.70	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SEA	51	0	54	227	36	28	7	0%	1.1	15.9%	12.3%	3.6%	3.1%	5.45	5.37	-0.5
2028	25	MLB MLE	SEA	52	0	54	230	39	27	7	0%	1.0	17.1%	11.7%	5.4%	3.0%	5.26	5.18	-0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	SEA	22	0	23	97	15	12	3	0%	1.0	15.9%	12.3%	3.6%	3.1%	5.45	5.37	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	SEA	34	0	36	152	26	18	5	0%	1.1	17.1%	11.7%	5.4%	3.0%	5.26	5.18	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	0	59	249	42	30	8	0%	1.1	16.7%	11.9%	4.7%	3.1%	5.33	4.88	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	142	102	27	0%	1.1	16.7%	11.9%	4.7%	3.1%	5.33	4.88	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		96	26	207	893	141	91	30	27%	2.2	15.8%	10.1%	5.7%	3.4%	4.65	4.91	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		93	25	200	863	137	87	29	27%	2.2	15.8%	10.1%	5.7%	3.4%	4.65	4.91	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adrian Quintana (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.70	13.9%	13.3%	3.1%	—	5.27	16.5%	4.5%	108	-0.43	—	—	—
Cole Percival R 2022 · 5.21 FIP	23	SU	5.21	15.4%	14.5%	2.9%	.297	4.27	17.9%	5.9%	182	-0.94	3.58	327	90
Eli Saul R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	21	SW	5.41	12.6%	14.2%	2.9%	.305	5.39	13.8%	-2.9%	98	-0.02	5.30	157	88
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	85
Raul Carrillo R 2015 · 5.26 FIP	23	SW	5.26	11.1%	11.2%	3.1%	.364	4.56	10.8%	1.4%	169	-0.70	4.40	348	85
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	85
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	84
Everhett Hazelwood R 2022 · 5.23 FIP	23	SU	5.23	13.8%	12.2%	3.2%	.306	6.51	18.7%	2.9%	63	+1.28	5.23	117	84
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	84
Rogelio Martinez R 2015 · 5.25 FIP	23	SU	5.25	10.0%	9.7%	3.2%	.304	5.20	11.6%	4.4%	73	-0.05	5.20	152	84
Alexis Rivero R 2018 · 4.94 FIP	23	SU	4.94	13.2%	11.6%	2.7%	.261	6.43	12.9%	3.3%	24	+1.49	3.86	280	83
Jacinto Arredondo R 2021 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	14.4%	12.7%	2.6%	.310	4.89	15.7%	5.0%	50	-0.04	4.89	101	83
Kelvis Valerio R 2015 · 4.53 FIP	23	SU	4.53	12.9%	10.3%	2.2%	.312	4.18	11.4%	4.0%	190	-0.35	4.14	266	83
Joe Nahas R 2023 · 4.70 FIP	23	SU	4.70	14.3%	13.3%	2.1%	.295	4.63	18.8%	10.6%	77	-0.07	4.33	328	83
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	82
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	82
Taylor Grover R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SU	5.03	15.1%	12.9%	2.9%	.229	4.30	18.7%	9.1%	150	-0.73	3.68	239	82
Zach Nuding R 2015 · 4.76 FIP	25	SU	4.76	12.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.236	5.03	12.6%	3.3%	106	+0.27	4.76	146	82
Simon Mercedes R 2015 · 4.86 FIP	23	SU	4.86	14.3%	11.7%	2.7%	.309	4.94	16.4%	3.9%	60	+0.08	4.86	139	82
Jake Johansen R 2015 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	15.8%	12.8%	3.6%	.351	4.14	13.6%	3.0%	114	-1.20	3.65	162	81
Daniel Concepcion R 2016 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	13.0%	10.6%	4.6%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	110	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	15.7%	12.4%	1.19	5.47
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86