Alex Carrillo
P
Syracuse Mets
Age 29
RHP
6'2" / 220 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION21 act + 24 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115106vR 96
ERA4.20
FIP4.20
K%27.5%
BB%12.3%
K-BB%15.1%
ROS IP24
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SL-0.6 (32%)
FB-4.7 (42%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 3 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 35.3% | 11.8% | 23.5% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.61 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 3 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 35.3% | 11.8% | 23.5% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.72 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 38 | 0 | 46 | 199 | 68 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 30.6% | 15.6% | 15.0% | 1.6% | 5.05 | 3.39 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 38 | 0 | 46 | 199 | 68 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 34.2% | 14.1% | 20.1% | 3.5% | 5.05 | 3.94 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 21 | 0 | 21 | 107 | 31 | 24 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.5% | 23.6% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 5.57 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | NYM | 23 | 0 | 24 | 103 | 28 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.5% | 12.3% | 15.1% | 2.7% | 4.20 | 4.20 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | NYM | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.5% | 12.3% | 15.1% | 2.7% | 4.20 | 4.20 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 45 | 210 | 59 | 37 | 4 | — | — | 28.2% | 17.5% | 10.7% | 1.8% | 4.84 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 2 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 27.5% | 12.3% | 15.1% | 2.7% | 4.20 | 3.82 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 22 | 0 | 23 | 96 | 26 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.7% | 12.3% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.39 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 8 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.7% | 12.3% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.39 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 13 | 0 | 15 | 68 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.0% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 7.8% | 7.07 | 6.81 | -0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 172 | 0 | 200 | 874 | 207 | 103 | 65 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.0% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 7.8% | 7.07 | 6.81 | -3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 62 | 0 | 72 | 323 | 94 | 58 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 29.2% | 18.1% | 11.1% | 1.3% | 4.90 | 3.66 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 173 | 0 | 200 | 901 | 263 | 163 | 12 | 0% | 1.2 | 29.2% | 18.1% | 11.1% | 1.3% | 4.90 | 3.66 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alex Carrillo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.20 | 27.5% | 12.3% | 2.7% | — | 4.39 | 26.7% | 14.4% | 23 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Greg Holland R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.21 | 25.4% | 13.0% | 1.1% | .316 | 3.35 | 26.4% | 14.2% | 104 | +0.14 | 1.97 | 268 | 82 |
| Kirby Yates R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.10 | 26.4% | 9.6% | 1.8% | .310 | 2.27 | 38.5% | 32.2% | 180 | -0.83 | 0.70 | 468 | 79 |
| John Axford R 2029 · 3.10 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.10 | 24.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .333 | 3.98 | 21.5% | 11.1% | 141 | +0.88 | 3.10 | 197 | 79 |
| Heath Hembree R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.99 | 29.2% | 10.0% | 3.8% | .291 | 4.74 | 29.7% | 20.4% | 117 | +0.75 | 2.67 | 382 | 77 |
| Zach McAllister R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.70 | 26.5% | 8.4% | 3.2% | .292 | 4.72 | 21.4% | 16.7% | 57 | +1.02 | 2.82 | 363 | 76 |
| Oliver Drake R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.10 | 29.7% | 10.9% | 3.9% | .289 | 3.29 | 28.4% | 20.1% | 183 | -0.81 | 2.25 | 317 | 76 |
| Blake Parker R 2028 · 3.36 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.36 | 28.1% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .269 | 3.84 | 28.4% | 21.3% | 195 | +0.48 | 2.61 | 339 | 75 |
| Justin Miller R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 20.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .353 | 4.75 | 22.5% | 16.5% | 127 | +1.17 | 2.54 | 279 | 74 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.45 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .299 | 3.95 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.50 | 3.53 | 134 | 74 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.07 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .329 | 3.81 | 19.8% | 9.8% | 129 | +0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 73 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.26 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .360 | 6.54 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 96 | +2.28 | 4.26 | 258 | 73 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.19 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.81 | 2.38 | 160 | 73 |
| Javy Guerra R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 73 |
| JT Chargois R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.68 | 27.2% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .311 | 3.61 | 23.1% | 15.8% | 76 | -0.07 | 2.59 | 362 | 72 |
| Brandon Workman R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.59 | 23.6% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .253 | 3.15 | 29.9% | 16.3% | 119 | -0.44 | 2.04 | 269 | 72 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.05 | 24.5% | 10.5% | 1.3% | .325 | 3.66 | 24.9% | 14.9% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.05 | 210 | 72 |
| Héctor Rondón R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.97 | 29.1% | 8.4% | 4.1% | .290 | 3.84 | 22.8% | 15.1% | 140 | -0.13 | 2.37 | 318 | 72 |
| Cody Allen R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.22 | 27.7% | 10.7% | 3.8% | .281 | 7.59 | 25.0% | 7.8% | 23 | +3.37 | 1.58 | 295 | 72 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2028 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 72 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 71 |