Alex Carrillo — OGILVIE

Alex Carrillo P Sacramento River Cats

Age 29 RHP 6'2" / 220 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 24 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.40

FIP4.40

K%26.5%

BB%13.1%

K-BB%13.4%

ROS IP24

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

SL-0.6 (32%)

FB-4.7 (42%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	22	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	3	0	4	17	6	2	0	0%	1.4	35.3%	11.8%	23.5%	0.0%	0.00	1.61	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	3	0	4	17	6	2	0	0%	1.4	35.3%	11.8%	23.5%	0.0%	0.00	1.72	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	0	46	199	68	28	7	0%	1.2	29.7%	14.1%	15.5%	1.8%	5.05	3.34	+0.7
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	0	46	199	68	28	7	0%	1.2	29.7%	14.1%	15.5%	1.8%	5.05	3.34	+0.7
2025	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	38	0	46	199	68	28	7	0%	1.2	34.2%	14.1%	20.1%	3.5%	5.05	3.94	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	0	5	22	4	2	4	0%	1.6	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	18.2%	13.50	13.81	-0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	33	0	34	168	48	32	2	0%	1.0	23.7%	17.1%	6.6%	1.3%	5.88	3.99	—
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	33	0	34	168	48	32	2	0%	1.0	23.7%	17.1%	6.6%	1.3%	5.88	3.99	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AAA RAW	SF	33	0	34	168	48	32	2	0%	1.0	28.6%	19.0%	9.5%	1.2%	5.88	3.75	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	SF	22	0	23	96	25	13	3	0%	1.0	25.8%	13.0%	12.8%	3.0%	4.50	4.57	-0.0
2027	30	MLB CTX	SF	8	0	8	34	9	4	1	0%	1.0	25.8%	13.0%	12.8%	3.0%	4.50	4.57	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	13	57	13	7	5	0%	1.2	22.9%	11.5%	11.4%	8.8%	7.72	7.45	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		168	0	200	880	199	107	77	0%	1.2	22.9%	11.5%	11.4%	8.8%	7.72	7.45	-6.7
Career	—	MLE		74	0	84	384	105	59	6	0%	1.1	27.3%	15.3%	12.0%	1.5%	5.12	3.55	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		175	0	200	911	249	140	13	0%	1.1	27.3%	15.3%	12.0%	1.5%	5.12	3.55	-3.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Carrillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.40	26.5%	13.1%	2.7%	—	4.57	25.8%	12.8%	23	+0.17	—	—	—
Greg Holland R 2015 · 3.21 FIP	29	SU	3.21	25.4%	13.0%	1.1%	.316	3.45	26.4%	14.2%	104	+0.24	1.97	268	83
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	76
Justin Miller R 2016 · 3.74 FIP	29	SU	3.74	20.8%	9.7%	2.1%	.353	4.72	22.5%	16.5%	127	+0.98	2.63	279	75
Oliver Drake R 2016 · 3.57 FIP	29	SU	3.57	29.7%	10.9%	2.9%	.289	3.25	28.4%	20.1%	183	-0.32	2.26	317	75
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	74
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	73
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	159	72
Carlos Fisher R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.6%	11.6%	1.4%	.236	3.17	22.5%	11.1%	91	-0.28	2.48	147	72
Blake Parker R 2016 · 3.21 FIP	31	SU	3.21	28.1%	8.5%	2.5%	.269	3.73	28.4%	21.3%	195	+0.52	2.52	339	72
J.J. Hoover R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	27.4%	12.7%	3.5%	.360	6.40	17.2%	8.0%	96	+2.08	4.22	258	72
Louis Head R 2019 · 4.85 FIP	29	SU	4.85	21.2%	12.7%	3.5%	.450	3.54	23.7%	13.1%	108	-1.31	2.76	336	72
Lucas Erceg R 2023 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	25.6%	13.8%	1.5%	.330	3.23	21.6%	13.9%	166	-0.28	2.10	346	71
Al Alburquerque R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	29	SU	3.54	21.4%	11.1%	1.5%	.330	3.23	21.3%	12.5%	114	-0.31	2.84	228	71
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	71
Zach McAllister R 2017 · 3.70 FIP	29	SU	3.70	26.5%	8.4%	3.2%	.292	4.70	21.4%	16.7%	57	+1.00	2.82	363	71
Heath Hembree R 2018 · 4.06 FIP	29	SU	4.06	29.2%	10.0%	3.9%	.291	4.73	29.7%	20.4%	117	+0.67	2.58	382	71
Brandon Workman R 2018 · 3.72 FIP	29	SU	3.72	23.6%	7.5%	3.0%	.253	3.15	29.9%	16.3%	119	-0.57	2.04	269	71
Michael Dimock R 2018 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	23.5%	10.7%	1.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	166	70
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	212	70
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	70