Michael Valera prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Michael Valera P Salem Red Sox

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 176 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.56

FIP4.56

K%23.0%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%12.1%

ROS IP26

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	20	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox 1	2	0	2	10	3	2	0	0%	1.0	30.0%	20.0%	10.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2019	20	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox 1	2	0	2	10	3	2	0	0%	1.0	30.0%	20.0%	10.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2021	22	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Red	19	2	32	153	39	19	2	11%	1.7	17.3%	15.5%	1.8%	1.0%	7.96	4.16	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	DSL BOS Red	19	2	32	153	39	19	2	11%	1.7	25.5%	12.4%	13.1%	1.3%	7.96	3.26	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	0	26	122	38	18	2	0%	1.4	22.0%	18.2%	3.7%	3.1%	6.58	5.25	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	0	26	122	38	18	2	0%	1.4	31.1%	14.8%	16.4%	1.6%	6.58	3.25	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	44	196	57	22	3	0%	1.4	21.0%	13.4%	7.7%	2.1%	4.95	4.15	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	44	196	57	22	3	0%	1.4	21.0%	13.4%	7.7%	2.1%	4.95	4.15	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	44	196	57	22	3	0%	1.4	29.1%	11.2%	17.9%	1.5%	4.95	2.89	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.0%	10.9%	12.1%	3.0%	4.56	4.56	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	BOS	24	0	25	106	24	12	3	0%	1.1	22.9%	10.9%	12.0%	3.1%	4.58	4.62	-0.0
2027	28	MLB CTX	BOS	9	0	9	38	9	4	1	0%	1.0	22.9%	10.9%	12.0%	3.1%	4.58	4.62	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	9	39	9	4	1	0%	1.0	22.9%	10.9%	12.0%	3.1%	4.58	4.24	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	197	87	22	0%	1.1	22.9%	10.9%	12.0%	3.1%	4.58	4.24	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		71	2	103	481	98	74	9	3%	1.5	20.3%	15.4%	4.9%	1.9%	6.18	4.41	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		137	4	200	931	189	144	18	3%	1.5	20.3%	15.4%	4.9%	1.9%	6.18	4.41	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Valera (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	23.0%	10.9%	3.0%	—	4.62	22.9%	12.0%	25	+0.06	—	—	—
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	88
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	85
C.C. Lee R 2014 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	20.5%	8.7%	2.4%	.310	2.80	25.7%	17.6%	96	-0.97	2.59	149	85
Chaz Roe R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	25.3%	10.5%	3.1%	.259	2.81	24.6%	16.2%	133	-1.21	1.72	279	85
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	84
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.36	21.4%	10.8%	92	+0.05	3.89	168	84
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	84
Grant Balfour R 2004 · 3.79 FIP	26	SU	3.79	24.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.292	4.01	24.8%	8.3%	25	+0.22	2.04	533	84
Jose Veras R 2008 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	24.9%	9.1%	2.8%	.281	4.10	23.8%	11.7%	169	+0.43	3.37	422	84
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	83
Marcos Mateo R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	25.5%	10.2%	2.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	83
Brian Sanches R 2006 · 5.30 FIP	27	SU	5.30	22.4%	10.2%	5.1%	.295	4.52	19.0%	10.1%	82	-0.78	3.39	229	83
Taylor Williams R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	24.2%	8.9%	2.4%	.309	4.35	22.5%	12.7%	108	+0.83	2.51	309	83
Santiago Casilla R 2007 · 3.58 FIP	27	SU	3.58	23.7%	7.8%	2.7%	.257	3.60	19.8%	10.7%	154	+0.02	2.76	647	82
Jason Motte R 2009 · 4.62 FIP	27	SU	4.62	22.1%	9.0%	4.1%	.297	2.84	26.9%	21.0%	192	-1.78	2.22	387	82
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	82
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	82
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	82
Cole Sulser R 2017 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	22.6%	10.2%	1.9%	.321	2.85	28.2%	18.4%	140	-0.67	2.38	554	82
Greg Aquino R 2005 · 5.03 FIP	27	SU	5.03	21.9%	10.3%	4.5%	.357	4.34	22.5%	13.3%	62	-0.69	4.10	154	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	22.9%	10.9%	1.17	4.57
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Wesley Wright ('15)	1.5	51	22.0%	10.1%	1.11	4.16
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10