Sam Aldegheri

P Salt Lake Bees

Age 25 LHP 6'1" / 210 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2029

Overview

AAASP40-MANFG #442

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX3 levels	22	22	108	3.74	2.45	30.8%	10.9%	3.4	K 24.6% · BB 12.1% · FIP 3.26
2025	23	MIX3 levels	28	26	147	4.16	4.24	19.2%	10.8%	1.1	K 16.1% · BB 11.8% · FIP 4.71
2026	24	MIX2 levels	30	27	134	6.85	5.32	18.4%	12.2%	-0.6	K 16.3% · BB 11.2% · FIP 5.37
2027PROJ	25	MLBLAA	28	28	164	5.28	5.51	16.5%	12.2%	-1.1
2028PROJ68% MLB	26	MLBLAA	19	19	115	5.23	5.28	18.1%	11.7%	-0.5
2029PROJ78% MLB	27	MLBLAA	22	22	135	5.21	5.24	18.4%	11.5%	-0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.9 · Next 3 projected WAR -2.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo16

Whiff%15

xwOBA vs14

K%10

CompsJohn Koronka (age 25) · Miguel Cienfuegos (age 26) · Brandon Claussen (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120129vR 137

ERA5.28

FIP5.51

K%16.5%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%4.3%

Proj IP164

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 164 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CTRL2040

CMD4045

K†4045

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1692.1

Whiff%

p1520.4%

p1014.6%

xwOBA vs

p140.355

CH (31%)

CT (5%)

CU (8%)

FB (47%)

SL-1.4 (9%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	3	21	92	32	10	0	38%	2.6	24.7%	15.3%	9.4%	0.0%	2.57	2.95	—
2021	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	3	21	92	32	10	0	38%	2.6	34.8%	10.9%	23.9%	0.0%	2.57	1.48	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	8	4	12	54	17	7	0	50%	1.5	21.4%	16.2%	5.2%	0.0%	1.46	3.34	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	8	4	12	54	17	7	0	50%	1.5	31.5%	13.0%	18.5%	0.0%	1.46	2.05	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	84	363	99	35	9	95%	4.2	20.3%	11.3%	9.0%	3.3%	4.20	4.61	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	19	84	363	99	35	9	95%	4.2	27.3%	9.6%	17.6%	2.5%	4.20	3.39	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	108	467	144	51	5	100%	4.9	24.6%	12.1%	12.5%	1.3%	3.74	3.26	+2.2
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	108	467	144	51	5	100%	4.9	24.6%	12.1%	12.5%	1.3%	3.74	3.26	+2.2
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	22	108	467	144	51	5	100%	4.9	30.8%	10.9%	19.9%	1.1%	3.74	2.45	+3.4
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	26	147	651	125	70	16	93%	5.2	16.1%	11.8%	4.4%	2.7%	4.16	4.71	+0.3
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	26	147	651	125	70	16	93%	5.2	16.1%	11.8%	4.4%	2.7%	4.16	4.71	+0.3
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	26	147	651	125	70	16	93%	5.2	19.2%	10.8%	8.4%	2.5%	4.16	4.24	+1.1
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	27	134	608	112	74	23	90%	4.5	16.3%	11.2%	5.1%	4.1%	6.85	5.37	-0.7
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	27	134	608	112	74	23	90%	4.5	16.3%	11.2%	5.1%	4.1%	6.85	5.37	-0.7
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	27	134	608	112	74	23	90%	4.5	18.4%	12.2%	6.2%	3.8%	6.85	5.32	-0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			16	11	60	291	44	37	10	69%	3.8	15.1%	12.7%	2.4%	3.4%	5.67	5.64	-0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	LAA	28	28	164	692	114	84	24	100%	5.9	16.5%	12.2%	4.3%	3.4%	5.28	5.51	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAA	28	28	171	722	131	84	24	100%	6.1	18.1%	11.7%	6.5%	3.4%	5.23	5.28	-0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	LAA	29	29	172	728	134	83	25	100%	5.9	18.4%	11.5%	7.0%	3.4%	5.21	5.24	-0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	LAA	29	29	172	728	134	83	25	100%	5.9	18.5%	11.4%	7.0%	3.5%	5.23	5.28	-0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	LAA	27	27	165	695	125	80	25	100%	6.1	18.0%	11.6%	6.4%	3.6%	5.33	5.41	-0.9
2032	30	MLB MLE	LAA	26	26	155	653	113	77	25	100%	5.9	17.3%	11.9%	5.4%	3.8%	5.50	5.62	-1.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAA	19	19	115	486	88	57	16	100%	6.1	18.1%	11.7%	6.5%	3.4%	5.23	5.28	-0.5
2029	27	MLB CTX	LAA	22	22	135	570	105	65	19	100%	6.1	18.4%	11.5%	7.0%	3.4%	5.21	5.24	-0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	LAA	24	24	146	616	114	70	21	100%	6.1	18.5%	11.4%	7.0%	3.5%	5.23	5.28	-0.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	LAA	24	24	145	612	110	71	22	100%	6.0	18.0%	11.6%	6.4%	3.6%	5.33	5.41	-0.8
2032	30	MLB CTX	LAA	23	23	139	587	101	70	22	100%	6.0	17.3%	11.9%	5.4%	3.8%	5.50	5.62	-1.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		129	124	740	3160	562	370	112	96%	5.7	17.8%	11.7%	6.1%	3.5%	5.33	5.02	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	34	200	854	152	100	30	96%	5.7	17.8%	11.7%	6.1%	3.5%	5.33	5.02	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		116	101	506	2235	427	265	60	87%	4.4	19.1%	11.9%	7.2%	2.7%	4.66	4.47	-4.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	40	200	883	169	105	24	87%	4.4	19.1%	11.9%	7.2%	2.7%	4.66	4.47	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sam Aldegheri (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.51	16.5%	12.2%	3.4%	—	5.27	18.3%	6.8%	516	-0.24	—	—	—
John Koronka L 2005 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP-	4.77	13.2%	10.5%	2.6%	.304	4.81	10.5%	2.2%	135	+0.04	3.99	151	80
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	80
Brandon Claussen L 2004 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP	4.80	14.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.314	4.56	16.5%	9.2%	244	-0.24	4.41	310	79
J.C. Romero L 2001 · 4.89 FIP	25	SP-	4.89	13.6%	8.0%	3.5%	.285	3.46	20.7%	10.3%	218	-1.43	2.88	652	77
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	76
Chris Rusin L 2012 · 4.51 FIP	25	SP	4.51	15.6%	8.1%	3.1%	.343	4.42	13.3%	6.8%	245	-0.09	2.89	596	76
Pedro Hernandez L 2013 · 5.31 FIP	24	SP	5.31	11.0%	8.4%	3.8%	.347	4.09	13.1%	4.2%	68	-1.22	4.09	124	75
Matt Portland L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP-	4.64	17.4%	11.0%	2.9%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	143	74
Nate Robertson L 2003 · 4.66 FIP	25	SP	4.66	16.3%	10.3%	3.0%	.343	4.54	16.1%	8.6%	602	-0.12	4.13	1,144	73
Dan Serafini L 2000 · 5.27 FIP	26	SP-	5.27	11.7%	9.0%	3.7%	.300	5.44	9.2%	0.0%	30	+0.17	3.71	259	73
Jimmy Robbins L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP-	4.69	17.8%	15.2%	2.1%	.290	5.73	19.6%	3.8%	13	+1.04	3.85	176	72
Austin Emener L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	19.4%	9.3%	4.1%	.306	5.38	21.4%	5.6%	63	+0.52	4.86	123	72
Grant Watson L 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	16.4%	10.3%	3.0%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	180	72
David Purcey L 2008 · 4.39 FIP	26	SP	4.39	20.1%	10.0%	3.1%	.301	4.39	17.9%	5.0%	116	-0.00	3.60	206	72
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	71
Manny Banuelos L 2016 · 5.18 FIP	25	SP	5.18	15.1%	14.2%	2.8%	.322	4.03	20.2%	9.6%	254	-1.15	2.95	486	71
Harrison Musgrave L 2017 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP	5.34	13.8%	11.0%	3.7%	.310	4.64	17.4%	7.7%	85	-0.70	4.01	440	71
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	12.3%	8.5%	4.0%	.327	4.78	10.7%	3.9%	181	-0.55	3.68	322	71
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	70
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.3	151	17.6%	11.8%	1.36	5.31
Don Black ('43-'48, 0 WAR*)	4.0	133	17.4%*	10.4%*	1.28*	5.32*
Jeff Robinson ('87-'92, 0 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.3%*	10.9%*	1.38*	5.14*
Tyler Green ('98)	1.9	128	15.4%	11.8%	1.10	5.16
Bill James ('11-'19, 2 WAR*)	5.9	169	16.0%*	11.3%*	1.03*	4.82*
Kevin Foster ('01)	2.5	127	18.9%	10.0%	1.55	4.86
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*