Keneth Quintanilla prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Keneth Quintanilla P FCL Pirates

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 154 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 19 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.85

FIP4.85

K%22.8%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%9.9%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Gold	10	0	10	45	12	7	0	0%	1.0	26.7%	15.6%	11.1%	0.0%	0.90	2.82	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL PIT Gold	10	0	10	45	12	7	0	0%	1.0	26.7%	15.6%	11.1%	0.0%	0.90	2.80	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Gold	10	8	32	131	37	13	0	80%	3.2	19.2%	12.4%	6.8%	0.0%	3.13	3.05	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL PIT Gold	10	8	32	131	37	13	0	80%	3.2	28.2%	9.9%	18.3%	0.0%	3.13	1.99	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	18	0	33	151	38	24	7	0%	1.9	17.1%	19.9%	-2.8%	7.0%	5.13	8.02	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	18	0	33	151	38	24	7	0%	1.9	17.1%	19.9%	-2.8%	7.0%	5.13	8.02	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates	18	0	33	151	38	24	7	0%	1.9	25.2%	15.9%	9.3%	4.6%	5.13	5.71	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	PIT	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.8%	12.9%	9.9%	3.0%	4.85	4.85	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	PIT	19	0	20	86	20	10	3	0%	1.1	23.4%	11.6%	11.9%	3.0%	4.69	4.61	-0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	PIT	9	0	9	38	9	4	1	0%	1.0	23.4%	11.6%	11.9%	3.0%	4.69	4.61	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	37	9	4	1	0%	1.1	23.4%	11.6%	11.9%	3.0%	4.69	4.23	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	207	92	23	0%	1.1	23.4%	11.6%	11.9%	3.0%	4.69	4.23	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		38	8	75	327	63	53	11	21%	2.0	19.3%	16.3%	3.0%	3.2%	3.72	5.31	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		101	21	200	872	168	142	28	21%	2.0	19.3%	16.3%	3.0%	3.2%	3.72	5.31	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Keneth Quintanilla (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.85	22.8%	12.9%	3.0%	—	4.61	23.4%	11.8%	20	-0.24	—	—	—
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	86
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.73	23.4%	12.7%	156	-0.82	3.22	258	84
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	84
Jonathan Papelbon R 2005 · 3.93 FIP	24	SW	3.93	23.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.305	1.90	31.3%	26.8%	196	-2.03	1.33	726	84
Luis Romero R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	22.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.367	4.26	21.6%	12.5%	132	-0.74	4.00	293	84
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	83
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	83
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	83
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	83
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	401	82
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.17	28.8%	15.2%	112	-0.85	3.14	173	82
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	82
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	82
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	82
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	82
Yunior Montero R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	23	SW	3.65	21.9%	11.9%	1.6%	.239	5.21	21.3%	3.7%	54	+1.56	3.65	127	81
Todd Wellemeyer R 2003 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	24.6%	14.8%	4.1%	.290	4.56	18.9%	4.8%	135	-0.58	3.35	615	81
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	81
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	81
Tyler Schimpf R 2019 · 4.04 FIP	23	SU	4.04	24.3%	15.9%	1.8%	.300	5.63	24.1%	7.1%	58	+1.59	3.37	126	81