Jean Cabrera

P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 145 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #181MiLBFA 2035

Scout OFP43ETA2028FG ETA2026MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	20	19	107	3.80	2.70	24.7%	7.4%	—	K 19.2% · BB 8.4% · FIP 3.54
2025	23	AAPHI	26	26	137	3.81	3.63	22.2%	10.6%	—	K 18.0% · BB 11.7% · FIP 4.29
2026	24	MIX2 levels	21	20	88	7.64	5.14	15.8%	10.4%	—	K 13.0% · BB 10.5% · FIP 5.46
2027PROJ	25	MLBPHI	27	27	157	5.14	5.14	15.3%	10.3%	-0.4
2028PROJ48% MLB	26	MLBPHI	13	13	76	5.10	5.05	17.4%	10.0%	-0.0
2029PROJ66% MLB	27	MLBPHI	17	17	102	5.04	5.04	17.7%	9.9%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.4M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff53Control52Command52FB velo42

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsBlayne Weller (age 25) · Carlos Pimentel (age 25) · Chase Solesky (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.14

FIP5.14

K%15.3%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%5.0%

Proj IP157

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 157 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5055

CTRL—55

CMD4555

K†3040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	13	13	53	196	61	10	1	100%	4.1	21.2%	6.4%	14.8%	0.8%	1.54	2.57	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	13	13	53	196	61	10	1	100%	4.1	31.1%	5.1%	26.0%	0.5%	1.54	1.60	—
2022	20	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	12	12	46	213	51	28	8	100%	3.9	17.7%	15.5%	2.2%	4.9%	5.24	6.25	—
2022	20	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	12	12	46	213	51	28	8	100%	3.9	23.9%	13.1%	10.8%	3.8%	5.24	4.96	—
2023	21	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	19	13	81	358	86	22	3	68%	4.3	17.8%	7.3%	10.5%	1.1%	4.32	3.12	—
2023	21	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	19	13	81	358	86	22	3	68%	4.3	24.0%	6.1%	17.9%	0.8%	4.32	2.28	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	107	446	110	33	6	95%	5.3	19.2%	8.4%	10.7%	1.8%	3.80	3.54	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	107	446	110	33	6	95%	5.3	19.2%	8.4%	10.7%	1.8%	3.80	3.54	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	19	107	446	110	33	6	95%	5.3	24.7%	7.4%	17.3%	1.3%	3.80	2.70	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	26	26	137	573	127	61	11	100%	5.3	18.0%	11.7%	6.2%	2.2%	3.81	4.29	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	26	26	137	573	127	61	11	100%	5.3	18.0%	11.7%	6.2%	2.2%	3.81	4.29	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	26	26	137	573	127	61	11	100%	5.3	22.2%	10.6%	11.5%	1.9%	3.81	3.63	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	88	424	67	44	14	95%	4.2	13.0%	10.5%	2.6%	3.9%	7.64	5.46	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	88	424	67	44	14	95%	4.2	13.0%	10.5%	2.6%	3.9%	7.64	5.46	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	20	88	424	67	44	14	95%	4.2	15.8%	10.4%	5.4%	3.3%	7.64	5.14	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	PHI	27	27	157	663	102	68	20	100%	5.8	15.3%	10.3%	5.0%	3.0%	5.14	5.14	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	PHI	26	26	157	663	115	66	20	100%	6.0	17.4%	10.0%	7.4%	3.0%	4.98	4.93	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	PHI	26	26	155	653	116	65	20	100%	5.9	17.7%	9.9%	7.8%	3.1%	4.92	4.92	-0.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	PHI	25	25	150	633	113	63	20	100%	6.0	17.8%	9.9%	7.9%	3.2%	4.93	4.97	-0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	PHI	24	24	143	605	107	61	20	100%	6.0	17.7%	10.1%	7.6%	3.3%	5.01	5.08	-0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	PHI	22	22	135	568	99	59	20	100%	6.1	17.3%	10.4%	6.9%	3.5%	5.16	5.26	-0.5
2028	26	MLB CTX	PHI	13	13	76	321	56	32	10	100%	5.8	17.4%	10.0%	7.4%	3.2%	5.10	5.05	-0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	PHI	17	17	102	431	76	43	14	100%	6.0	17.7%	9.9%	7.8%	3.3%	5.04	5.04	-0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	PHI	19	19	116	490	87	49	17	100%	6.1	17.8%	9.9%	7.9%	3.4%	5.06	5.10	-0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	PHI	20	20	119	502	89	51	18	100%	6.0	17.7%	10.1%	7.6%	3.5%	5.14	5.21	-0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	PHI	20	20	117	494	86	51	19	100%	5.8	17.3%	10.4%	6.9%	3.8%	5.30	5.40	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		88	88	529	2233	393	225	77	100%	6.0	17.6%	10.1%	7.5%	3.5%	5.13	4.79	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	149	85	29	100%	6.0	17.6%	10.1%	7.5%	3.5%	5.13	4.79	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		111	103	512	2210	387	221	53	93%	4.6	17.5%	10.0%	7.5%	2.4%	4.44	4.21	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	40	200	863	151	86	21	93%	4.6	17.5%	10.0%	7.5%	2.4%	4.44	4.21	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jean Cabrera (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.14	15.3%	10.3%	3.0%	—	4.94	17.7%	7.7%	462	-0.20	—	—	—
Blayne Weller R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP	4.15	16.0%	9.7%	2.1%	.326	5.65	17.6%	8.4%	103	+1.50	4.15	254	87
Carlos Pimentel R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.266	4.32	15.8%	5.8%	158	-0.11	4.30	301	86
Chase Solesky R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	14.9%	10.0%	3.0%	.322	4.43	16.0%	8.7%	271	-0.34	4.07	567	84
Chandler Champlain R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	25	SP	4.72	16.7%	8.1%	3.6%	.298	4.77	15.3%	8.7%	247	+0.05	4.56	628	84
James Needy R 2015 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	14.2%	8.6%	3.1%	.326	2.82	18.1%	8.2%	36	-1.90	2.82	167	82
Gabriel Arias R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	25	SP	4.42	13.1%	7.2%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	195	82
Mike Wright Jr. R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP	4.07	15.7%	7.9%	2.3%	.260	4.25	17.2%	9.8%	343	+0.18	3.76	725	82
Kyle Haynes R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	25	SP	4.58	15.7%	9.9%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	240	81
Thomas Farr R 2024 · 5.38 FIP	25	SP	5.38	12.6%	9.3%	4.0%	.295	5.61	10.6%	1.2%	83	+0.23	5.05	423	81
Trystan Vrieling R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	17.3%	8.2%	2.5%	.297	4.84	17.9%	5.3%	198	+0.82	4.02	345	81
Tyler Cravy R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	26	SP-	3.94	17.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.305	4.61	18.6%	7.8%	138	+0.67	3.94	276	81
Carter Spivey R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	24	SP	4.02	14.2%	10.6%	1.4%	.264	6.14	14.9%	3.5%	30	+2.12	4.02	155	81
Ian Mejia R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	18.7%	11.6%	2.2%	.288	5.06	16.0%	6.6%	194	+0.84	3.94	439	81
Asher Wojciechowski R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	26	SP	4.30	15.7%	8.5%	2.6%	.323	4.61	20.4%	12.2%	287	+0.31	3.15	678	81
Claudio Vargas R 2003 · 4.75 FIP	25	SP	4.75	12.6%	7.3%	3.2%	.251	5.02	16.5%	8.5%	418	+0.27	3.66	765	80
Taylor Cole R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	25	SP	4.46	15.0%	8.8%	2.8%	.319	3.66	20.8%	12.1%	168	-0.80	3.49	433	80
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	80
Kade Morris R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP	4.72	16.1%	8.4%	3.5%	.282	4.36	15.6%	8.3%	264	-0.36	3.89	395	80
David Hess R 2018 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP	4.69	17.5%	8.5%	3.6%	.267	5.99	20.8%	13.3%	187	+1.30	3.97	751	80
Jason Berken R 2009 · 4.92 FIP	25	SP	4.92	11.8%	7.5%	3.4%	.335	4.32	16.8%	9.6%	129	-0.60	3.37	468	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.5	149	17.2%	10.1%	1.23	5.02
Don Black ('43-'48, 0 WAR*)	4.0	133	17.4%*	10.4%*	1.28*	5.32*
Steve McCatty ('77-'85, 6 WAR*)	5.9	149	16.4%*	10.1%*	1.20*	4.49*
Ian Snell ('10)	4.0	134	17.8%	10.4%	1.12	4.80
Socks Seibold ('16-'33, 4 WAR*)	5.3	133	15.4%*	9.6%*	1.16*	4.69*
Roger Pavlik ('98)	3.7	124	16.2%	10.8%	1.03	4.58
Nate Robertson ('10)	5.8	144	15.3%	8.3%	1.25	5.01