Josh Hartle

P Harrisburg Senators

Age 24 LHP 6'6" / 207 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.4 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #576MiLBFA 2036

Scout OFP44ETA2028FG ETA2026MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	APIT	1	0	2	16.20	2.50	20.0%	10.0%	—	K 20.0% · BB 10.0% · FIP 2.68
2025	22	MIX2 levels	24	24	113	2.54	2.47	23.3%	8.5%	—	K 18.5% · BB 10.2% · FIP 3.16
2026	23	AAWSH	25	24	123	3.45	3.38	22.1%	9.4%	—	K 17.9% · BB 10.4% · FIP 4.04
2027PROJ	24	MLBWSH	26	26	143	4.49	4.49	18.0%	9.5%	0.7
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBWSH	11	11	63	4.39	4.34	19.3%	8.9%	0.4
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBWSH	16	16	97	4.32	4.28	19.9%	8.8%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$2M2034Arb-2$2M+1

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control57Command55FB velo46

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 10, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 82%

CompsBrandon Schaeffer (age 23) · Erik Bedard (age 25) · Juan Pablo Oramas (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102110vR 118

ERA4.49

FIP4.49

K%18.0%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%8.5%

Proj IP143

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 143 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$19M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL—60

CMD4055

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	1	0	2	10	2	1	0	0%	1.7	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	16.20	2.68	—
2024	21	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	1	0	2	10	2	1	0	0%	1.7	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	16.20	2.68	—
2024	21	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	1	0	2	10	2	1	0	0%	1.7	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	16.20	2.50	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	113	459	107	39	2	100%	4.7	18.5%	10.2%	8.3%	0.6%	2.54	3.16	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	113	459	107	39	2	100%	4.7	18.5%	10.2%	8.3%	0.6%	2.54	3.16	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	113	459	107	39	2	100%	4.7	23.3%	8.5%	14.8%	0.4%	2.54	2.47	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	25	24	123	520	115	49	9	96%	4.9	17.9%	10.4%	7.5%	2.1%	3.45	4.04	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	25	24	123	520	115	49	9	96%	4.9	17.9%	10.4%	7.5%	2.1%	3.45	4.04	—
2026	23	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	25	24	123	520	115	49	9	96%	4.9	22.1%	9.4%	12.7%	1.7%	3.45	3.38	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	WSH	26	26	143	604	109	57	15	100%	5.5	18.0%	9.5%	8.5%	2.4%	4.49	4.49	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	WSH	25	25	144	610	118	54	15	100%	5.8	19.3%	8.9%	10.4%	2.5%	4.39	4.34	+0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	WSH	24	24	144	610	122	53	15	100%	6.0	19.9%	8.8%	11.2%	2.5%	4.32	4.28	+1.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	WSH	24	24	142	601	120	53	16	100%	5.9	20.0%	8.8%	11.3%	2.6%	4.32	4.32	+1.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	WSH	23	23	138	583	116	52	16	100%	6.0	20.0%	8.9%	11.1%	2.7%	4.37	4.40	+0.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	WSH	22	22	132	556	110	51	16	100%	6.0	19.7%	9.1%	10.6%	2.8%	4.47	4.53	+0.6
2033	30	MLB MLE	WSH	21	21	124	523	101	49	16	100%	5.9	19.4%	9.4%	9.9%	3.0%	4.61	4.71	+0.3
2034	31	MLB MLE	WSH	19	19	116	488	92	48	16	100%	6.1	19.0%	9.8%	9.2%	3.3%	4.79	4.91	-0.0
2035	32	MLB MLE	WSH	18	18	107	451	83	46	16	100%	5.9	18.5%	10.2%	8.3%	3.5%	5.00	5.14	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	63	266	51	24	7	100%	5.7	19.3%	8.9%	10.4%	2.5%	4.39	4.34	+0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	97	410	82	36	10	100%	6.1	19.9%	8.8%	11.2%	2.5%	4.32	4.28	+0.7
2030	27	MLB CTX	WSH	18	18	110	464	93	41	12	100%	6.1	20.0%	8.8%	11.3%	2.6%	4.32	4.32	+0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	WSH	19	19	116	490	98	44	13	100%	6.1	20.0%	8.9%	11.1%	2.7%	4.37	4.40	+0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	WSH	19	19	116	490	97	45	14	100%	6.1	19.7%	9.1%	10.6%	2.8%	4.47	4.53	+0.5
2033	30	MLB CTX	WSH	18	18	111	469	91	44	14	100%	6.2	19.4%	9.4%	9.9%	3.0%	4.61	4.71	+0.2
2034	31	MLB CTX	WSH	18	18	106	448	85	44	15	100%	5.9	19.0%	9.8%	9.2%	3.3%	4.79	4.91	-0.0
2035	32	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	99	418	77	43	15	100%	6.2	18.5%	10.2%	8.3%	3.5%	5.00	5.14	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		137	137	818	3456	673	319	100	100%	6.0	19.5%	9.2%	10.3%	2.9%	4.54	4.21	+6.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	164	78	24	100%	6.0	19.5%	9.2%	10.3%	2.9%	4.54	4.21	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		50	48	238	989	180	102	14	96%	4.8	18.2%	10.3%	7.9%	1.4%	3.11	3.62	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	40	200	832	152	86	11	96%	4.8	18.2%	10.3%	7.9%	1.4%	3.11	3.62	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Hartle (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.49	18.0%	9.5%	2.4%	—	4.31	19.7%	10.9%	431	-0.18	—	—	—
Brandon Schaeffer L 2023 · 4.07 FIP	23	SP	4.07	16.4%	8.5%	2.3%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	134	91
Erik Bedard L 2004 · 4.01 FIP	25	SP	4.01	19.1%	11.1%	2.1%	.317	3.28	23.8%	15.5%	520	-0.73	2.96	1,317	88
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	16.5%	8.6%	2.2%	.313	3.87	17.4%	6.8%	186	-0.12	3.46	440	87
Adalberto Mejía L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	24	SP	3.96	18.7%	8.3%	2.5%	.313	3.67	19.5%	9.3%	117	-0.29	3.30	427	87
Tyler DeLoach L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	19.0%	10.1%	2.6%	.332	2.96	21.7%	12.4%	63	-1.26	2.96	202	86
Austin Krob L 2024 · 3.75 FIP	24	SP	3.75	18.2%	9.0%	1.9%	.333	4.61	16.0%	2.1%	47	+0.86	3.59	280	85
Reid Love L 2016 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	13.8%	6.8%	2.7%	.293	3.74	15.2%	9.0%	140	-0.55	3.66	280	85
Adam Scott L 2019 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP	4.17	20.7%	8.2%	3.3%	.318	4.94	21.9%	9.2%	136	+0.77	4.17	315	85
Dylan Carmouche L 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.0%	11.6%	2.5%	.332	5.21	16.7%	6.8%	116	+0.86	4.35	239	84
David Parkinson L 2019 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	19.6%	8.8%	2.1%	.303	5.44	16.0%	8.2%	78	+1.74	3.07	517	84
Misael Siverio L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	26	SP	3.89	16.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.343	4.32	17.3%	8.2%	63	+0.43	3.89	185	84
Joe Whitman L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP	3.89	18.6%	9.9%	2.0%	.303	3.65	19.8%	11.7%	252	-0.24	3.51	355	84
Emmett Olson L 2024 · 3.88 FIP	22	SP	3.88	16.6%	9.3%	1.8%	.290	4.59	16.3%	7.9%	35	+0.71	3.88	147	83
Marco Tovar L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	26	SP	3.78	17.1%	7.8%	2.1%	.323	4.70	13.0%	6.1%	120	+0.92	3.78	327	83
Jonathan Dziedzic L 2015 · 4.01 FIP	24	SP	4.01	13.1%	6.7%	2.1%	.293	4.27	15.3%	6.1%	325	+0.26	3.88	522	83
Chad Bell L 2015 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	15.7%	7.4%	2.3%	.326	4.07	19.0%	10.2%	252	+0.10	3.39	393	83
Jeriome Robertson L 2003 · 4.70 FIP	26	SP	4.70	13.9%	7.9%	3.2%	.295	7.27	8.0%	-1.3%	14	+2.57	4.70	175	82
Nick Raquet L 2019 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	16.8%	8.9%	2.7%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	434	82
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	82
Logan Boyd L 2017 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP-	4.12	14.9%	10.2%	1.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	276	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.0	132	19.3%	9.2%	1.08	4.51
Elmer Knetzer ('09-'17, 6 WAR*)	6.3	158	19.4%*	9.7%*	1.10*	4.40*
Ken McBride ('59-'65, 7 WAR*)	4.0	135	19.7%*	10.0%*	0.98*	4.29*
Kyle Gibson ('25)	9.4	156	18.8%	8.2%	1.12	4.60
Gil Meche ('10)	7.2	143	17.0%	9.6%	1.11	4.49
Joe Coleman ('42-'55, 6 WAR*)	5.7	142	18.0%*	9.1%*	1.25*	4.62*
Wandy Rodriguez ('15)	7.8	142	19.2%	8.0%	1.07	4.10