Fabian Machado — OGILVIE

Fabian MachadoRF FCL Mets

Age 23 R/R 6'0" / 180 lbs ROK H +5%HR +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

wRC+†59

AVG/OBP/SLG.201 / .268 / .304

PA94

HR2

K%32

BB%7

MLB%0%

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.0peak

2030

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$0.2M	—	—	—
2036	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2037	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$4M		$-26M	-$30M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$30M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Mets 2	128	113	23	7	0	1	9	36	4	3	2	.204	.286	.292	.578	.088	.282	28	7	.252	51	-7	-0	+0	-1	+4	-0.5
2023	20	ROK	FCL Mets	37	29	3	1	0	0	7	11	1	0	0	.103	.297	.138	.435	.034	.167	30	19	.204	14	-4	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.3
2024	21	ROK	2 teams	137	123	16	3	0	0	6	66	5	3	0	.130	.201	.154	.356	.024	.267	48	4	.164	-16	-18	+1	+0	-1	+4	-1.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	NYM	94	86	18	3	1	2	7	30	1	1	0	.209	.277	.337	.614	.128	.289	32	7	.262	59	-4	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	24	MLB 10%	NYM	148	133	28	5	1	3	12	46	2	2	1	.211	.286	.331	.617	.120	.291	31	8	.277	70	-5	+0	+0	-2	+4	-0.2
2028	25	MLB 25%	NYM	254	229	50	9	2	6	20	76	3	4	1	.218	.290	.354	.643	.135	.293	30	8	.286	77	-7	+0	+0	-3	+7	-0.2
2029	26	MLB 42%	NYM	328	294	64	11	2	8	27	97	4	5	1	.218	.292	.350	.643	.133	.294	30	8	.292	82	-7	+1	+0	-4	+9	-0.0
2030	27	MLB 58%	NYM	369	331	72	13	2	9	31	109	4	5	1	.218	.292	.350	.643	.133	.294	30	8	.293	82	-7	+1	+0	-4	+10	-0.0
2031	28	MLB 68%	NYM	393	353	76	13	2	10	33	117	4	5	1	.215	.290	.348	.638	.133	.293	30	8	.292	81	-8	+1	-1	-4	+11	-0.1
2032	29	MLB 77%	NYM	401	360	78	14	2	10	34	120	4	4	0	.217	.291	.350	.641	.133	.292	30	8	.289	80	-9	+1	-1	-4	+11	-0.3
2033	30	MLB 84%	NYM	403	362	77	13	2	10	34	122	4	4	0	.213	.287	.343	.630	.130	.291	30	8	.286	77	-10	+1	-2	-4	+11	-0.5
2034	31	MLB 91%	NYM	396	355	74	13	2	9	34	122	4	2	0	.208	.285	.332	.617	.124	.289	31	9	.283	74	-11	+0	-3	-4	+11	-0.7
2035	32	MLB	NYM	381	342	71	12	2	9	32	119	4	0	0	.208	.283	.333	.616	.126	.288	31	8	.278	71	-13	+0	-4	-4	+11	-1.0
2036	33	MLB	NYM	354	317	65	11	2	8	30	113	4	0	0	.205	.282	.328	.610	.123	.286	32	8	.273	67	-13	+0	-4	-4	+10	-1.1
2037	34	MLB	NYM	312	280	56	9	2	6	26	102	3	0	0	.200	.275	.311	.586	.111	.284	33	8	.266	62	-13	+0	-5	-3	+9	-1.3
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			4135	3707	771	137	22	91	342	1286	51	38	7	.208	.284	.330	.614	.122	.289	31	8	.278	71	-137	+5	-20	-44	+117	-8.1
/ 162G	—			650	583	121	22	3	14	54	202	8	6	1	.208	.284	.328	.612	.120	.288	31	8	.278	71	-22	+1	-3	-7	+18	-1.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Mets 2	128	107	30	10	1	15	25	4	3	2	.280	.389	.402	.791	.121	.349	20	12	.356	130	+4	-0	—	—	+4	0.8
2023	20	ROK	FCL Mets	37	25	3	1	0	11	7	1	0	0	.120	.405	.160	.565	.040	.167	19	30	.311	96	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2024	21	A	St. Lucie Mets	27	24	3	1	0	1	16	2	1	0	.125	.222	.167	.389	.042	.375	59	4	.195	7	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2024	21	ROK	FCL Mets	110	94	21	4	0	10	29	3	2	0	.223	.318	.266	.584	.043	.309	26	9	.270	65	-4	+0	—	—	+3	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Fabian Machado (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	.201/.268/.304	.103	.289	2	1	32%	7%	59	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Sandro Fabian 2021 · A	23	39→45	44→55	45	38	.198/.254/.311	.113	.271	13	5	31%	5%	54	-1.4	.226/.268/.393	.167	.263	22	4	23%	4%	82	+0.5	.223/.272/.390	.167	.250	20	4	20%	5%	79	+0.2
✕Narciso Crook 2018 · A	23	39→43	43→55	49→50	34	.195/.236/.304	.109	.284	11	10	35%	4%	43	-2.2	.215/.267/.339	.124	.312	11	11	33%	5%	66	-0.6	.199/.278/.357	.158	.302	19	15	38%	7%	73	-0.1
●Sean Bouchard 2019 · A	23	38→44	44→55	48→50	37	.196/.244/.314	.117	.275	12	13	33%	5%	50	-1.7	.201/.254/.332	.131	.296	13	10	35%	6%	59	-1.1	.223/.323/.415	.191	.292	21	16	29%	11%	106	+1.0
✕Raul Beracierta 2022 · A	23	42	44→50	50	38	.206/.263/.332	.126	.313	11	8	36%	6%	63	-0.9	.226/.273/.356	.130	.336	15	5	35%	5%	73	-0.1	.235/.278/.368	.133	.343	18	1	36%	4%	73	-0.1
●Kody Hinze 2010 · A	23	39→46	44→50	46→30	44	.195/.267/.313	.118	.270	12	3	31%	8%	60	-1.0	.216/.284/.361	.145	.293	18	2	31%	8%	80	+0.4	.214/.285/.366	.152	.282	21	1	31%	8%	79	+0.2
✕Kevin Padlo 2019 · A	23	36→40	44→55	45→50	45	.183/.265/.303	.120	.269	11	7	35%	9%	57	-1.2	.201/.280/.365	.164	.291	19	9	35%	9%	80	+0.4	.191/.263/.361	.170	.260	21	12	35%	8%	69	-0.3
✕Jerar Encarnacion 2021 · A	23	42→45	44→55	45	36	.207/.251/.317	.109	.301	12	6	35%	5%	53	-1.5	.209/.266/.354	.145	.336	19	7	41%	7%	70	-0.3	.223/.287/.396	.173	.327	26	6	38%	8%	87	+0.6
✕Stuart Fairchild 2019 · A	23	45→43	40→50	53→55	41	.214/.276/.312	.098	.301	7	14	30%	6%	63	-0.8	.215/.282/.341	.126	.287	11	10	28%	7%	74	-0.1	.220/.305/.384	.164	.292	18	16	29%	8%	91	+0.6
●Felix Reyes 2023 · A	22	37→47	43→50	46→45	35	.188/.235/.293	.105	.267	11	8	34%	4%	40	-2.4	.221/.258/.346	.125	.263	15	7	22%	4%	64	-0.8	.241/.274/.386	.144	.275	17	8	19%	4%	81	+0.2
✕Trey Amburgey 2018 · A	23	41→44	42→50	52→50	37	.203/.249/.305	.102	.278	9	12	30%	4%	50	-1.8	.216/.256/.349	.133	.280	15	9	28%	4%	64	-0.8	.221/.260/.367	.146	.284	16	7	28%	4%	67	-0.4
✕Chase Strumpf 2021 · A	23	44→35	42→50	49→45	42	.208/.284/.314	.106	.302	8	7	32%	7%	68	-0.5	.197/.289/.340	.143	.309	15	5	38%	9%	77	+0.1	.182/.286/.344	.162	.286	20	4	40%	10%	74	-0.1
✕Richie Shaffer 2014 · A	23	42→39	44→55	50→40	38	.208/.255/.327	.119	.284	11	6	30%	5%	58	-1.2	.202/.266/.361	.159	.271	18	5	31%	7%	72	-0.2	.192/.265/.358	.165	.256	20	4	32%	8%	69	-0.4
✕Blaze Alexander 2022 · A	23	38→48	42→50	52→50	39	.185/.256/.288	.103	.292	11	14	38%	7%	49	-1.8	.218/.290/.354	.136	.331	15	11	36%	7%	81	+0.4	.220/.308/.345	.126	.328	13	10	34%	8%	84	+0.4
✕Ruben Cardenas 2021 · A	23	44→42	42→55	46→50	43	.214/.265/.320	.107	.273	8	8	24%	6%	60	-1.0	.218/.266/.388	.170	.290	23	8	32%	6%	79	+0.3	.208/.272/.388	.180	.257	24	10	29%	7%	79	+0.2
✕Kyler Fedko 2023 · A	23	44→42	42→45	51→55	48	.212/.285/.319	.107	.280	9	10	26%	8%	69	-0.4	.204/.289/.323	.119	.267	12	14	26%	10%	72	-0.2	.192/.284/.327	.135	.243	17	21	27%	10%	69	-0.2
✕Eudy Pina 2014 · A	23	37→46	44→45	51→55	39	.188/.249/.308	.120	.267	11	11	33%	6%	51	-1.7	.218/.265/.324	.106	.305	8	9	30%	5%	61	-1.0	.228/.267/.316	.088	.318	6	8	29%	4%	57	-0.9
✕Lane Adams 2013 · A	23	44→45	42→50	52→60	39	.216/.261/.319	.103	.293	9	11	29%	5%	58	-1.2	.221/.274/.337	.116	.293	11	23	27%	6%	69	-0.4	.224/.277/.354	.130	.308	15	36	31%	6%	71	-0.2
✕Chris Meyers 2022 · A	23	41→46	42→50	51→40	45	.201/.269/.304	.103	.264	9	11	26%	7%	59	-1.1	.222/.280/.362	.140	.293	16	7	29%	6%	79	+0.3	.226/.286/.378	.152	.294	19	3	29%	6%	82	+0.3
✕Eric Wagaman 2021 · A	23	38→48	42→50	41→45	36	.193/.236/.291	.098	.285	10	6	35%	5%	40	-2.4	.203/.263/.331	.128	.273	15	7	30%	7%	63	-0.8	.241/.289/.388	.147	.287	15	11	22%	6%	85	+0.5
✕Deibinson Romero 2010 · A	23	42→46	40→50	46→40	43	.205/.269/.300	.094	.280	8	5	28%	7%	57	-1.2	.209/.276/.319	.110	.279	11	3	28%	7%	66	-0.6	.226/.295/.367	.141	.272	17	2	23%	8%	84	+0.5

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)