Roberto Campos
RF Erie SeaWolves| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A+DET | 484 | .272/.346/.425 | 10 | 11 | 76 | — | .227/.287/.357 |
| 2025 | 22 | AADET | 403 | .239/.308/.350 | 4 | 5 | 59 | — | .220/.272/.308 |
| 2026 | 23 | AA/A+/ADET | 152 | .291/.408/.402 | 2 | 2 | 97 | — | .267/.349/.370 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBDET | 2 | .207/.272/.298 | 0 | 0 | 64 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 25 | MLBDET | 49 | .210/.276/.310 | 1 | 1 | 69 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | FCL Tigers West | — | 155 | 136 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 41 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 228 | 318 | 441 | 759 | 213 | 261 | 26 | 11 | 335 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 448 | 403 | 104 | 26 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 97 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 258 | 328 | 385 | 713 | 127 | 326 | 22 | 9 | 319 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 371 | 339 | 87 | 22 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 81 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 257 | 315 | 395 | 710 | 139 | 320 | 22 | 8 | 315 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 484 | 426 | 116 | 25 | 5 | 10 | 41 | 112 | 8 | 11 | 2 | 272 | 346 | 425 | 771 | 153 | 341 | 23 | 8 | 339 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 403 | 360 | 86 | 22 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 101 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 239 | 307 | 350 | 657 | 111 | 318 | 25 | 9 | 295 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 84 | 71 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 282 | 393 | 451 | 844 | 169 | 360 | 23 | 15 | 378 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 51 | 42 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 333 | 451 | 381 | 832 | 48 | 452 | 22 | 18 | 385 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 17 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 353 | 214 | 567 | 250 | 12 | 18 | 283 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Tigers West | — | 155 | 143 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 58 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 161 | 221 | 308 | 528 | 147 | 210 | 37 | 6 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 448 | 416 | 93 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 134 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 224 | 274 | 320 | 594 | 96 | 317 | 30 | 6 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 371 | 346 | 79 | 18 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 102 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 228 | 274 | 347 | 621 | 118 | 300 | 27 | 6 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 484 | 440 | 100 | 22 | 4 | 9 | 29 | 149 | 8 | 11 | 2 | 227 | 287 | 357 | 644 | 130 | 307 | 31 | 6 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 403 | 373 | 82 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 119 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 220 | 273 | 308 | 581 | 88 | 306 | 30 | 6 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 84 | 75 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 267 | 345 | 427 | 772 | 160 | 357 | 27 | 11 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 51 | 45 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 289 | 373 | 333 | 706 | 44 | 412 | 27 | 12 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 17 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 294 | 200 | 494 | 228 | 18 | 12 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Tigers West | — | 155 | 143 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 58 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 161 | 221 | 308 | 528 | 147 | 212 | 37 | 6 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Tigers West | — | 155 | 136 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 41 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 228 | 318 | 441 | 759 | 213 | 261 | 26 | 11 | 335 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 448 | 416 | 93 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 134 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 224 | 274 | 320 | 594 | 96 | 319 | 30 | 6 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A RAW | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 448 | 403 | 104 | 26 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 97 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 258 | 328 | 385 | 713 | 127 | 326 | 22 | 9 | 319 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 371 | 346 | 79 | 18 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 102 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 228 | 274 | 347 | 621 | 118 | 306 | 27 | 6 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ RAW | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 371 | 339 | 87 | 22 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 81 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 257 | 315 | 395 | 710 | 139 | 320 | 22 | 8 | 315 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 484 | 440 | 100 | 22 | 4 | 9 | 29 | 149 | 8 | 11 | 2 | 227 | 287 | 357 | 644 | 130 | 315 | 31 | 6 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ RAW | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 484 | 426 | 116 | 25 | 5 | 10 | 41 | 112 | 8 | 11 | 2 | 272 | 346 | 425 | 771 | 153 | 341 | 23 | 8 | 339 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 403 | 373 | 82 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 119 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 220 | 273 | 308 | 581 | 88 | 311 | 30 | 6 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA RAW | Erie SeaWolves | — | 403 | 360 | 86 | 22 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 101 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 239 | 307 | 350 | 657 | 111 | 318 | 25 | 9 | 295 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 152 | 134 | 36 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 40 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 269 | 355 | 373 | 728 | 104 | 370 | 26 | 12 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 152 | 127 | 37 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 32 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 291 | 408 | 402 | 809 | 110 | 376 | 21 | 16 | 370 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Tigers West | — | 155 | 143 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 58 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 161 | 221 | 308 | 528 | 147 | 210 | 37 | 6 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 448 | 416 | 93 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 134 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 224 | 274 | 320 | 594 | 96 | 317 | 30 | 6 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 371 | 346 | 79 | 18 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 102 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 228 | 274 | 347 | 621 | 118 | 300 | 27 | 6 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 484 | 444 | 100 | 22 | 4 | 9 | 29 | 149 | 8 | 11 | 2 | 225 | 287 | 354 | 641 | 128 | 307 | 31 | 6 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 403 | 373 | 82 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 119 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 220 | 273 | 308 | 581 | 88 | 306 | 30 | 6 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 152 | 133 | 36 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 40 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 271 | 355 | 376 | 731 | 105 | 361 | 26 | 12 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 484 | 444 | 100 | 22 | 4 | 9 | 29 | 149 | 8 | 11 | 2 | 225 | 287 | 354 | 641 | 128 | 307 | 31 | 6 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 403 | 373 | 82 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 119 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 220 | 273 | 308 | 581 | 88 | 306 | 30 | 6 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 152 | 133 | 36 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 40 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 271 | 355 | 376 | 731 | 105 | 361 | 26 | 12 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | DET | 2% | 202 | 184 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 55 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 210 | 275 | 304 | 579 | 94 | 285 | 27 | 7 | 263 | 64 | -9 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +4 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | DET | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 272 | 298 | 570 | 91 | 280 | 50 | 0 | 259 | 64 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | DET | 31% | 159 | 145 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 43 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 214 | 280 | 317 | 597 | 103 | 285 | 27 | 8 | 270 | 69 | -6 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +3 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | DET | 31% | 49 | 45 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 210 | 276 | 310 | 587 | 100 | 281 | 27 | 8 | 266 | 69 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 49 | 45 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 222 | 286 | 333 | 619 | 111 | 290 | 27 | 8 | 266 | 68 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 597 | 133 | 27 | 0 | 13 | 53 | 172 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 223 | 286 | 333 | 619 | 111 | 291 | 26 | 8 | 266 | 68 | -24 | +3 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -1.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2266 | 2084 | 462 | 97 | 19 | 31 | 150 | 671 | 14 | 38 | 10 | 222 | 278 | 331 | 610 | 109 | 308 | 30 | 7 | 268 | 68 | -10 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +5 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 598 | 132 | 28 | 5 | 9 | 43 | 192 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 221 | 278 | 329 | 607 | 109 | 306 | 30 | 7 | 268 | 68 | -26 | +2 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -1.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAErie SeaWolves · 84 PAwOBA .369 → .325 (−44)K% 22.6% → 27.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.62% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 11.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.029 | ×1.027 | 25.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×1.029 | ×1.027 | 6.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×1.029 | ×1.027 | 1.93% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 3.08% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.
Result: wOBA .369 → .325; ISO .169 → .146; BABIP .360 → .357. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 51 PAwOBA .377 → .316 (−61)K% 21.6% → 27.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.57% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 27.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 12.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 41.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 38.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 2.74% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .377 → .316; ISO .048 → .040; BABIP .452 → .412. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 17 PAwOBA .277 → .227 (−50)K% 11.8% → 16.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.76% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 16.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 12.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.990 | 22.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .277 → .227; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .250 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAErie SeaWolves · 403 PAwOBA .289 → .256 (−32)K% 25.1% → 29.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.06% | ÷1.035 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.68% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 6.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.25% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.01% | ÷0.981 | ×0.970 | ×0.994 | ×1.042 | 22.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.49% | ÷1.075 | ×0.860 | ×0.994 | ×1.042 | 7.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.16% | ÷1.115 | ×0.950 | ×0.994 | ×1.042 | 1.02% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.54% | ÷1.056 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 1.19% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 96, 2B 115, 3B 123, K 107, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .289 → .256; ISO .111 → .090; BABIP .318 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 484 PAwOBA .335 → .281 (−55)K% 23.1% → 30.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.14% | ÷0.957 | ×1.270 | — | — | 30.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.47% | ÷1.026 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 6.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.65% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 1.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.20% | ÷1.021 | ×0.920 | ×0.972 | ×1.027 | 21.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.96% | ÷0.892 | ×0.810 | ×0.972 | ×1.027 | 7.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.59% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.972 | ×1.027 | 1.50% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.18% | ÷0.889 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 2.94% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 104, 2B 78, 3B 80, K 91, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .335 → .281; ISO .153 → .134; BABIP .341 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 371 PAwOBA .309 → .267 (−42)K% 21.8% → 27.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.83% | ÷1.007 | ×1.270 | — | — | 27.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.55% | ÷0.993 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.042 | 5.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.27% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.042 | 0.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.32% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | ×1.011 | ×1.042 | 20.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.53% | ÷0.985 | ×0.810 | ×1.011 | ×1.042 | 7.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.94% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.011 | ×1.042 | 1.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.94% | ÷0.882 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 1.83% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 98, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .309 → .267; ISO .139 → .116; BABIP .320 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 448 PAwOBA .311 → .264 (−47)K% 21.7% → 30.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.65% | ÷0.982 | ×1.360 | — | — | 29.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.48% | ÷0.998 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 6.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.45% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.009 | ×0.920 | ×1.049 | ×1.045 | 22.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.50% | ÷0.974 | ×0.830 | ×1.049 | ×1.045 | 7.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.63% | ÷1.039 | ×0.910 | ×1.049 | ×1.045 | 1.57% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.63% | ÷1.279 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 1.07% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 102, 2B 95, 3B 108, K 96, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.049.
Result: wOBA .311 → .264; ISO .127 → .101; BABIP .326 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKFCL Tigers West · 155 PAwOBA .328 → .235 (−93)K% 26.5% → 37.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.45% | ÷1.010 | ×1.440 | — | — | 37.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.97% | ÷1.066 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 6.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.65% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.95% | ÷0.984 | ×0.820 | ×0.987 | ×1.022 | 15.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.027 | ×0.720 | ×0.987 | ×1.022 | 3.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.949 | ×0.720 | ×0.987 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.42% | ÷0.906 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 7.42% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 97, 2B 105, 3B 90, K 102, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .328 → .235; ISO .213 → .164; BABIP .261 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).