Nelvis Ochoa

P FCL Orioles

Age 24 RHP 5'10" / 158 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	20	ROKDSL Colorado	17	0	35	3.38	2.70	25.5%	4.8%	—	K 17.4% · BB 6.0% · FIP 3.79
2024	21	ROKBAL	9	7	21	4.71	3.39	27.9%	5.8%	—	K 19.0% · BB 7.3% · FIP 5.11
2027PROJ	24	MLBBAL	11	0	12	4.28	4.28	23.2%	8.8%	0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBBAL	9	0	9	4.25	4.22	23.6%	8.6%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsJonathan Papelbon (age 24) · Garrett Mock (age 25) · Grant Balfour (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115106vR 98

ERA4.28

FIP4.28

K%23.2%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%14.4%

Proj IP12

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	8	1	19	79	15	3	0	12%	2.4	12.9%	4.7%	8.2%	0.0%	3.79	2.61	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	8	1	19	79	15	3	0	12%	2.4	19.0%	3.8%	15.2%	0.0%	3.79	1.99	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	17	0	35	145	37	7	3	0%	2.0	17.4%	6.0%	11.3%	2.5%	3.38	3.79	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	17	0	35	145	37	7	3	0%	2.0	25.5%	4.8%	20.7%	2.1%	3.38	2.70	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	9	7	21	86	24	5	3	78%	2.3	19.0%	7.3%	11.7%	4.9%	4.71	5.11	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	9	7	21	86	24	5	3	78%	2.3	19.0%	7.3%	11.7%	4.9%	4.71	5.11	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	9	7	21	86	24	5	3	78%	2.3	27.9%	5.8%	22.1%	3.5%	4.71	3.39	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	BAL	11	0	12	51	12	4	2	0%	1.1	23.2%	8.8%	14.4%	3.0%	4.28	4.28	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	BAL	19	0	20	84	20	7	3	0%	1.1	23.6%	8.6%	15.0%	3.0%	4.25	4.22	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	BAL	9	0	9	38	9	3	1	0%	1.0	23.6%	8.6%	15.0%	3.0%	4.25	4.22	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	9	3	1	0%	1.1	23.6%	8.6%	15.0%	3.0%	4.25	3.84	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	211	70	23	0%	1.1	23.6%	8.6%	15.0%	3.0%	4.25	3.84	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		34	8	75	310	52	19	8	24%	2.2	16.7%	6.0%	10.6%	2.5%	3.86	3.85	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		91	21	200	830	138	50	21	24%	2.2	16.7%	6.0%	10.6%	2.5%	3.86	3.85	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nelvis Ochoa (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.28	23.2%	8.8%	3.0%	—	4.22	23.6%	14.9%	20	-0.06	—	—	—
Jonathan Papelbon R 2005 · 3.93 FIP	24	SW	3.93	23.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.305	1.90	31.3%	26.8%	196	-2.03	1.33	726	87
Garrett Mock R 2008 · 3.57 FIP	25	SU	3.57	25.6%	11.1%	2.2%	.300	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	91	+0.49	3.57	132	81
Grant Balfour R 2003 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	26.1%	10.4%	3.5%	.275	3.79	24.4%	12.8%	39	-0.34	2.04	533	81
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	81
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	80
Carlo Reyes R 2022 · 4.06 FIP	24	SW	4.06	20.4%	8.6%	2.9%	.318	3.92	24.1%	12.9%	61	-0.14	2.60	229	79
Stolmy Pimentel R 2014 · 4.13 FIP	24	SU	4.13	25.7%	9.5%	3.6%	.319	4.17	14.8%	4.3%	143	+0.04	3.87	176	79
Danny Hrbek R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	21.3%	7.5%	3.1%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	100	79
Nolan Clenney R 2021 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	25.5%	8.4%	3.1%	.340	4.35	22.4%	13.7%	185	+0.62	3.73	223	78
Joshua Loeschorn R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	23	SU	3.86	24.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.272	4.43	17.1%	8.4%	83	+0.57	3.08	151	78
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	78
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	77
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	77
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	77
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	77
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	77
Josh Advocate R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	24	SU	3.78	18.8%	7.3%	2.4%	.291	3.71	20.4%	10.1%	75	-0.07	3.71	118	77
Mitchell Stumpo R 2021 · 3.97 FIP	25	SU	3.97	25.6%	8.0%	3.7%	.299	5.27	22.4%	6.8%	121	+1.30	3.97	158	77
Kyle Schepel R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	23.1%	10.7%	3.9%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.99	3.54	156	77
Brandon Workman R 2013 · 3.44 FIP	24	SU	3.44	26.1%	7.8%	2.9%	.342	4.66	17.4%	7.4%	97	+1.22	2.04	398	76