Dylan Ray

P Reno Aces

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 230 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

AAA40-MANPROSPECTFG #998

Scout OFP45ETA2028FG ETA2026MLB%30%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	17	17	73	5.03	5.27	23.1%	10.3%	—	K 17.8% · BB 11.4% · FIP 5.80
2025	24	MIX2 levels	28	28	140	5.45	4.93	20.1%	9.0%	—	K 16.8% · BB 8.6% · FIP 5.38
2026	25	AAAARI	27	13	82	6.06	5.00	19.1%	7.9%	—	K 16.4% · BB 7.1% · FIP 5.25
2027PROJ	26	MLBARI	27	27	160	5.34	5.34	16.6%	8.1%	-0.8
2028PROJ55% MLB	27	MLBARI	15	15	89	5.25	5.27	17.2%	8.2%	-0.4
2029PROJ70% MLB	28	MLBARI	19	19	114	5.23	5.27	17.4%	8.3%	-0.5

Next 3 projected WAR -1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control50Command50FB velo50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsForrest Snow (age 26) · Jared Mortensen (age 27) · D.J. Houlton (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135126vR 118

ERA5.34

FIP5.34

K%16.6%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%8.5%

Proj IP160

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 160 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL—50

CMD4550

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	8	14	62	17	4	5	100%	1.7	18.8%	6.4%	12.4%	11.1%	6.59	8.43	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	8	14	62	17	4	5	100%	1.7	27.4%	6.5%	21.0%	8.1%	6.59	6.25	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	113	471	138	40	11	100%	4.5	22.7%	9.7%	13.0%	2.7%	4.37	3.89	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	113	471	138	40	11	100%	4.5	29.3%	8.5%	20.8%	2.3%	4.37	2.99	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	73	320	74	33	16	100%	4.3	17.8%	11.4%	6.4%	5.0%	5.03	5.80	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	73	320	74	33	16	100%	4.3	17.8%	11.4%	6.4%	5.0%	5.03	5.80	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	73	320	74	33	16	100%	4.3	23.1%	10.3%	12.8%	5.0%	5.03	5.27	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	140	613	123	55	26	100%	5.0	16.8%	8.6%	8.2%	4.7%	5.45	5.38	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	140	613	123	55	26	100%	5.0	16.8%	8.6%	8.2%	4.7%	5.45	5.38	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	140	613	123	55	26	100%	5.0	20.1%	9.0%	11.1%	4.2%	5.45	4.93	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	27	13	82	366	70	29	16	48%	3.0	16.4%	7.1%	9.3%	4.8%	6.06	5.25	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	27	13	82	366	70	29	16	48%	3.0	16.4%	7.1%	9.3%	4.8%	6.06	5.25	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	27	13	82	366	70	29	16	48%	3.0	19.1%	7.9%	11.2%	4.4%	6.06	5.00	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	ARI	27	27	160	676	112	55	27	100%	5.9	16.6%	8.1%	8.5%	4.1%	5.34	5.34	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	ARI	27	27	162	684	117	56	27	100%	6.0	17.2%	8.2%	9.0%	4.0%	5.25	5.27	-0.7
2029	28	MLB MLE	ARI	27	27	162	684	119	57	28	100%	6.0	17.4%	8.3%	9.1%	4.0%	5.23	5.27	-0.7
2030	29	MLB MLE	ARI	26	26	155	653	113	55	27	100%	5.9	17.4%	8.5%	8.9%	4.1%	5.29	5.35	-0.8
2031	30	MLB MLE	ARI	24	24	145	613	105	54	26	100%	6.1	17.2%	8.8%	8.4%	4.3%	5.41	5.50	-1.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	ARI	15	15	89	376	64	31	15	100%	5.9	17.2%	8.2%	9.0%	4.0%	5.25	5.27	-0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	ARI	19	19	114	481	84	40	19	100%	6.0	17.4%	8.3%	9.1%	4.0%	5.23	5.27	-0.5
2030	29	MLB CTX	ARI	20	20	121	511	89	43	21	100%	6.0	17.4%	8.5%	8.9%	4.1%	5.29	5.35	-0.6
2031	30	MLB CTX	ARI	20	20	121	511	88	45	22	100%	6.0	17.2%	8.8%	8.4%	4.3%	5.41	5.50	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		74	74	444	1876	324	158	77	100%	6.0	17.3%	8.4%	8.8%	4.1%	5.30	4.98	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	146	71	35	100%	6.0	17.3%	8.4%	8.8%	4.1%	5.30	4.98	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		105	91	422	1832	339	165	82	87%	4.0	18.5%	9.0%	9.5%	4.5%	5.24	5.15	-3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	43	200	868	160	78	39	87%	4.0	18.5%	9.0%	9.5%	4.5%	5.24	5.15	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Ray (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.34	16.6%	8.1%	4.1%	—	5.30	17.3%	9.0%	478	-0.04	—	—	—
Forrest Snow R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	16.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.263	4.14	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.89	3.02	406	84
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	81
D.J. Houlton R 2005 · 4.85 FIP	25	SP-	4.85	15.6%	8.5%	3.6%	.297	4.74	18.6%	12.4%	28	-0.11	4.74	157	78
Luis Santos R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	19.7%	9.7%	3.8%	.262	3.93	22.1%	13.0%	127	-0.83	3.53	472	78
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	77
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.90	12.7%	5.3%	173	-0.43	4.40	412	76
Mitch Spence R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	26	SP-	4.17	19.4%	6.8%	3.4%	.315	4.73	17.2%	10.1%	197	+0.56	4.12	747	76
Brannon Easterling R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	26	SP-	4.40	12.7%	8.2%	2.4%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	334	76
Randy Bell R 2018 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP-	4.36	14.4%	6.6%	3.0%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.36	120	76
Chandler Champlain R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	25	SP	4.72	16.7%	8.1%	3.6%	.298	4.77	15.3%	8.7%	247	+0.05	4.56	628	75
Josh DeGraaf R 2018 · 4.52 FIP	25	SP	4.52	17.2%	7.1%	3.6%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	320	75
Caleb Kilian R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP	4.61	16.0%	6.2%	3.8%	.290	3.54	21.7%	13.5%	105	-1.07	2.42	444	75
Justin Armbruester R 2024 · 5.73 FIP	25	SP	5.73	20.2%	11.1%	5.3%	.289	1.49	27.5%	21.9%	15	-4.24	1.49	373	74
Anthony Ranaudo R 2016 · 5.10 FIP	26	SP	5.10	15.5%	6.1%	4.6%	.255	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	314	74
Mike Vasil R 2024 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP	5.03	15.4%	7.7%	4.1%	.310	3.89	19.4%	8.3%	101	-1.14	3.63	429	74
Bubba Derby R 2019 · 5.42 FIP	25	SP-	5.42	18.0%	10.1%	4.7%	.287	5.14	19.4%	11.0%	71	-0.28	3.68	550	74
Mitch Myers R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP-	4.29	16.1%	5.8%	3.3%	.338	5.64	17.3%	8.5%	92	+1.35	3.56	432	74
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	74
Grahamm Wiest R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	23	SP-	5.13	11.1%	7.8%	3.6%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	120	74
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	157	17.1%	8.4%	1.59	5.30
Dan Griner ('12-'18, 3 WAR*)	3.4	135	17.1%*	8.0%*	1.50*	4.97*
Bill Grahame ('08-'10, 0 WAR*)	1.7	116	17.7%*	9.3%*	1.52*	5.11*
Bill Posedel ('38-'46, 1 WAR*)	3.4	136	16.9%*	8.8%*	1.33*	5.19*
Ryan Rupe ('03)	2.4	119	16.9%	7.7%	1.53	5.85
Brandon Claussen ('06)	1.6	105	16.0%	8.5%	1.37	5.04
Kevin Foster ('01)	2.5	127	18.9%	10.0%	1.55	4.86