Hunter Dobbins

P Memphis Redbirds

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

AAASP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	25	25	126	3.08	2.54	22.9%	9.2%	—	K 18.8% · BB 9.7% · FIP 2.99
2025	25	MIX3 levels	17	13	79	4.35	4.07	18.4%	6.7%	1.2	K 16.5% · BB 6.9% · FIP 4.47
2026	26	MIX2 levels	24	21	117	3.93	4.15	19.6%	9.1%	1.7	K 18.3% · BB 8.7% · FIP 4.31
2027PROJ	27	MLBSTL	8	8	47	4.43	4.63	19.1%	8.9%	0.4
2028PROJ93% MLB	28	MLBSTL	7	7	44	4.60	4.72	18.9%	9.1%	0.3
2029PROJ94% MLB	29	MLBSTL	6	6	36	4.77	4.88	18.3%	9.3%	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs56

K%52

FB Velo51

Form3.54 ERA (proj 4.43) · K 22.7% (proj 19.1%) · BB 14.8% (proj 8.9%) · last 90d · 20 IP through Oct 27

CompsAntonio Guzman (age 27) · Luke Hudson (age 27) · Ramon Ramirez (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.43

FIP4.63

K%19.1%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%10.1%

Proj IP51

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5194.6

Whiff%

p3523.1%

p5222.5%

xwOBA vs

p560.306

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	17	17	69	301	68	22	6	100%	4.1	16.7%	8.6%	8.1%	3.0%	5.22	4.41	—
2022	22	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	17	17	69	301	68	22	6	100%	4.1	22.6%	7.3%	15.3%	2.0%	5.22	3.22	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	113	468	122	31	9	95%	5.6	20.7%	7.3%	13.4%	2.2%	3.67	3.51	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	19	113	468	122	31	9	95%	5.6	26.1%	6.6%	19.4%	1.9%	3.67	2.80	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	126	524	120	48	2	100%	5.0	18.8%	9.7%	9.0%	0.4%	3.08	2.99	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	126	524	120	48	2	100%	5.0	18.8%	9.7%	9.0%	0.4%	3.08	2.99	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	126	524	120	48	2	100%	5.0	22.9%	9.2%	13.7%	0.4%	3.08	2.54	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	13	79	326	60	22	10	76%	4.6	16.5%	6.9%	9.6%	3.4%	4.35	4.47	+0.9
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	13	79	326	60	22	10	76%	4.6	16.5%	6.9%	9.6%	3.4%	4.35	4.47	+0.9
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	13	79	326	60	22	10	76%	4.6	18.4%	6.7%	11.7%	3.1%	4.35	4.07	+1.2
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	21	117	506	99	46	14	88%	4.9	18.3%	8.7%	9.6%	3.0%	3.93	4.31	+1.5
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	21	117	506	99	46	14	88%	4.9	18.3%	8.7%	9.6%	3.0%	3.93	4.31	+1.5
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	21	117	506	99	46	14	88%	4.9	19.6%	9.1%	10.5%	2.8%	3.93	4.15	+1.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			24	19	115	487	97	40	13	79%	4.8	19.9%	8.2%	11.7%	2.7%	3.91	3.93	+2.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	STL	8	8	47	198	38	18	6	100%	5.9	19.1%	8.9%	10.1%	3.0%	4.43	4.63	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	STL	8	8	47	199	38	18	6	100%	5.9	18.9%	9.1%	9.8%	3.1%	4.60	4.72	+0.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	STL	6	6	39	163	30	15	5	100%	6.4	18.3%	9.3%	9.0%	3.2%	4.77	4.88	+0.2
2030	30	MLB MLE	STL	5	5	30	128	22	12	4	100%	6.0	17.6%	9.6%	8.0%	3.4%	4.96	5.08	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	STL	7	7	44	186	35	17	6	100%	6.3	18.9%	9.1%	9.8%	3.1%	4.60	4.72	+0.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	STL	6	6	36	152	28	14	5	100%	6.0	18.3%	9.3%	9.0%	3.2%	4.77	4.88	+0.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	STL	5	5	29	122	22	12	4	100%	5.8	17.6%	9.6%	8.0%	3.4%	4.96	5.08	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		42	37	224	946	181	83	28	88%	5.3	19.2%	8.7%	10.4%	2.9%	4.32	4.20	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	33	200	846	162	74	25	88%	5.3	19.2%	8.7%	10.4%	2.9%	4.32	4.20	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		103	95	503	2125	392	178	48	92%	4.9	18.4%	8.4%	10.1%	2.3%	3.90	3.85	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	38	200	845	156	71	19	92%	4.9	18.4%	8.4%	10.1%	2.3%	3.90	3.85	+2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 63 IPFIP 4.07 → 4.31 (+0.24)K% 17.1% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.09%	—	×0.860	14.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×0.900	7.20%
HR / BF /BF	2.55%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.80%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.07 → 4.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 13 IPFIP 7.56 → 8.06 (+0.50)K% 13.2% → 11.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.21%	—	×0.860	11.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.32%	—	×0.900	10.19%
HR / BF /BF	7.55%	÷0.984	×1.100	8.43%

Result: FIP 7.56 → 8.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 105 IPFIP 2.46 → 2.96 (+0.50)K% 22.5% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.48%	—	×0.810	18.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.94%	—	×1.100	9.84%
HR / BF /BF	0.23%	÷1.018	×1.200	0.27%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 2.46 → 2.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 21 IPFIP 2.91 → 3.14 (+0.23)K% 25.0% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.860	21.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.23%	—	×0.900	9.20%
HR / BF /BF	1.14%	÷0.996	×1.100	1.26%

Result: FIP 2.91 → 3.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 72 IPFIP 3.46 → 4.18 (+0.72)K% 25.4% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.41%	—	×0.810	20.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.47%	—	×1.100	9.32%
HR / BF /BF	2.61%	÷1.048	×1.200	2.98%

Result: FIP 3.46 → 4.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Greenville Drive · 41 IPFIP 1.53 → 2.23 (+0.71)K% 27.3% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.33%	—	×0.770	21.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.11%	—	×1.150	3.57%
HR / BF /BF	0.62%	÷0.931	×1.250	0.83%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 86).

Result: FIP 1.53 → 2.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ASalem Red Sox · 69 IPFIP 3.21 → 4.41 (+1.20)K% 22.6% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.59%	—	×0.740	16.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.31%	—	×1.180	8.62%
HR / BF /BF	1.99%	÷0.873	×1.300	2.97%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 75).

Result: FIP 3.21 → 4.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hunter Dobbins (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	19.1%	8.9%	3.0%	—	4.87	18.4%	9.1%	116	+0.24	—	—	—
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	77
Luke Hudson R 2004 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP	3.82	18.6%	11.8%	1.5%	.237	4.59	14.2%	3.9%	187	+0.77	3.81	235	75
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	74
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	74
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	73
Ryan Jennings R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	20.4%	10.4%	1.7%	.286	4.93	25.0%	10.3%	58	+1.33	3.43	142	73
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	73
Cole Johnson R 2016 · 3.61 FIP	27	SP	3.61	14.0%	4.8%	2.0%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	101	73
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	73
Bryan Evans R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	28	SP	4.13	17.8%	6.2%	3.2%	.250	4.60	19.7%	14.9%	132	+0.47	3.89	231	73
Tim Atherton R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP	3.77	16.2%	8.6%	1.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	101	73
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	284	73
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	73
Cole De Vries R 2012 · 4.73 FIP	27	SP	4.73	15.5%	4.8%	4.2%	.254	7.58	15.8%	4.0%	15	+2.85	4.73	103	72
Mickey Callaway R 2002 · 4.22 FIP	27	SP	4.22	15.6%	7.5%	2.7%	.248	4.41	14.6%	5.8%	72	+0.19	4.22	126	72
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	72
Austin Bergner R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	27	SP	4.84	22.2%	12.5%	3.7%	.325	4.42	18.7%	7.3%	107	-0.42	4.06	464	72
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	72
Stephen Fife R 2013 · 3.94 FIP	26	SP	3.94	17.4%	7.0%	2.6%	.330	3.11	18.8%	10.7%	27	-0.83	3.11	264	71
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	47	19.1%	8.9%	1.14	4.35
Matt Wise ('08)	1.6	53	18.1%	7.9%	1.14	4.23
Josh Outman ('14)	1.4	46	19.0%	9.7%	0.92	4.43
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
John Morris ('66-'74, -0 WAR*)	1.2	58	18.3%*	8.2%*	1.00*	4.74*
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Jay Ritchie ('64-'68, 2 WAR*)	1.5	58	21.1%*	8.0%*	1.01*	4.21*