Hunter Dobbins — OGILVIE

Hunter Dobbins P Memphis Redbirds

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.3 · 2027 ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 ROS PROJECTION117 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 92

ERA4.04

FIP4.12

K%18.2%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%9.8%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 121 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†4550

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5194.6

Whiff%

p3523.1%

p5222.5%

xwOBA vs

p560.306

SL+4.4 (37%)

SI (1%)

CU (12%)

FB-2.7 (42%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.884 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.2M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$3M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	17	17	69	301	68	22	6	100%	4.1	16.7%	8.6%	8.1%	3.0%	5.22	4.41	—
2022	22	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	17	17	69	301	68	22	6	100%	4.1	22.6%	7.3%	15.3%	2.0%	5.22	3.22	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	113	468	122	31	9	95%	5.6	20.7%	7.3%	13.4%	2.2%	3.67	3.51	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	113	468	122	31	9	95%	5.6	20.7%	7.3%	13.4%	2.2%	3.67	3.51	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	19	113	468	122	31	9	95%	5.6	26.1%	6.6%	19.4%	1.9%	3.67	2.80	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	126	524	120	48	2	100%	5.0	18.6%	9.7%	8.9%	0.4%	3.08	3.00	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	126	524	120	48	2	100%	5.0	18.6%	9.7%	8.9%	0.4%	3.08	3.00	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	126	524	120	48	2	100%	5.0	22.9%	9.2%	13.7%	0.4%	3.08	2.54	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	13	79	326	60	22	10	76%	4.6	16.4%	6.9%	9.5%	3.4%	4.35	4.48	+0.4
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	13	79	326	60	22	10	76%	4.6	16.4%	6.9%	9.5%	3.4%	4.35	4.48	+0.4
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	13	79	326	60	22	10	76%	4.6	18.4%	6.7%	11.7%	3.1%	4.35	4.07	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			24	19	115	487	97	40	13	79%	4.8	19.9%	8.2%	11.7%	2.7%	3.91	3.93	+1.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	24	21	117	506	99	46	14	88%	4.9	18.0%	8.7%	9.3%	3.0%	3.93	4.33	+0.8
YTD	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	24	21	117	506	99	46	14	88%	4.9	18.0%	8.7%	9.3%	3.0%	3.93	4.33	+0.8
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	STL	13	13	63	275	47	22	7	100%	4.8	17.1%	8.0%	9.1%	2.5%	4.16	4.07	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	STL	11	8	54	231	52	24	7	73%	4.9	22.5%	10.4%	12.1%	3.0%	3.67	4.18	+0.5
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	STL	11	8	54	231	52	24	7	73%	4.9	22.5%	10.4%	12.1%	3.0%	3.67	4.18	+0.5
ROS	26	MLB MLE	STL	1	1	4	19	3	2	1	100%	4.4	18.2%	8.4%	9.8%	2.7%	4.04	4.12	+0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	STL	1	1	4	17	3	1	0	100%	4.0	18.2%	8.4%	9.8%	2.5%	3.93	4.01	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	121	525	102	48	15	—	—	19.5%	9.1%	10.4%	2.8%	3.94	4.32	+0.8
FULL	26	MLB A+C	STL	—	—	58	247	102	48	14	—	—	41.5%	19.3%	22.2%	5.9%	8.15	5.26	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	117	492	99	45	14	100%	6.1	20.1%	9.1%	11.0%	2.8%	4.45	4.50	+0.5
2028	28	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	117	492	99	46	14	100%	6.1	20.0%	9.3%	10.7%	2.9%	4.53	4.58	+0.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	111	470	91	45	15	100%	5.9	19.4%	9.5%	9.9%	3.1%	4.66	4.74	+0.2
2030	30	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	105	442	83	43	15	100%	6.2	18.7%	9.8%	8.9%	3.3%	4.83	4.95	-0.1
2031	31	MLB MLE	STL	16	16	98	412	74	42	14	100%	6.1	18.0%	10.2%	7.8%	3.5%	5.04	5.18	-0.3
2027	27	MLB CTX	STL	18	18	111	469	94	43	12	100%	6.2	20.1%	9.1%	11.0%	2.6%	4.34	4.39	+0.5
2028	28	MLB CTX	STL	18	18	111	469	94	44	13	100%	6.2	20.0%	9.3%	10.7%	2.7%	4.42	4.47	+0.4
2029	29	MLB CTX	STL	18	18	106	448	87	43	13	100%	5.9	19.4%	9.5%	9.9%	2.9%	4.54	4.62	+0.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	99	418	78	41	13	100%	6.2	18.7%	9.8%	8.9%	3.1%	4.70	4.82	-0.1
2031	31	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	93	393	71	40	13	100%	5.8	18.0%	10.2%	7.8%	3.3%	4.90	5.04	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		111	106	639	2699	524	251	77	95%	5.8	19.4%	9.3%	10.1%	2.9%	4.45	4.21	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	33	200	845	164	79	24	96%	5.7	19.4%	9.3%	10.1%	2.9%	4.45	4.21	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		103	95	503	2125	390	178	48	92%	4.9	18.3%	8.4%	10.0%	2.3%	3.90	3.85	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	38	200	845	155	71	19	92%	4.9	18.3%	8.4%	10.0%	2.3%	3.90	3.85	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hunter Dobbins (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.44	18.3%	8.2%	2.7%	—	4.60	19.9%	10.6%	345	+0.16	—	—	—
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	83
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	80
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	79
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	78
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	78
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	78
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.33	18.3%	11.3%	428	+0.03	3.24	669	77
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.89	14.8%	0.9%	72	+1.86	3.51	261	76
Zack Wheeler R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	27	SP	4.75	21.0%	10.1%	3.9%	.327	3.09	23.0%	16.8%	449	-1.66	2.28	1,586	76
Tim Atherton R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP	3.77	16.2%	8.6%	1.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	101	76
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	75
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	75
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	75
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	75
Tyler Stuart R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	23	SP	3.55	19.5%	8.1%	2.0%	.280	3.87	20.3%	11.8%	142	+0.32	3.53	252	75
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	74
Jake Lee R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	26	SP	3.76	20.5%	9.7%	2.1%	.362	5.44	15.8%	9.4%	113	+1.68	2.78	181	74
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	74
Brandon Birdsell R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP	3.91	17.1%	8.3%	2.2%	.266	4.05	19.2%	13.6%	154	+0.14	3.87	262	73
Bryan Evans R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	28	SP	4.13	17.8%	6.2%	3.2%	.250	4.60	19.7%	14.9%	132	+0.47	3.89	231	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	103	19.2%	9.4%	1.19	4.65
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25