Hunter Dobbins
P
Memphis Redbirds
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 185 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.9 · 2027
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION82 act + 31 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113104vR 95
ERA4.05
FIP4.13
K%18.2%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%9.8%
ROS IP31
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 113 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6495.5
Whiff%
p3523.2%
K%
p6124.2%
xwOBA vs
p210.346
SL+4.4 (37%)
SI (1%)
CU (12%)
FB-2.7 (42%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A | Salem Red Sox | 17 | 17 | 69 | 301 | 68 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 4.1 | 16.7% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 5.22 | 4.68 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Salem Red Sox | 17 | 17 | 69 | 301 | 68 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 4.1 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 15.3% | 2.0% | 5.22 | 3.22 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 19 | 113 | 468 | 122 | 31 | 9 | 95% | 5.6 | 20.7% | 7.3% | 13.4% | 2.2% | 3.67 | 3.48 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 19 | 113 | 468 | 122 | 31 | 9 | 95% | 5.6 | 26.1% | 6.6% | 19.4% | 1.9% | 3.67 | 2.80 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 126 | 524 | 120 | 48 | 2 | 100% | 5.0 | 18.8% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 0.4% | 3.08 | 3.01 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 126 | 524 | 120 | 48 | 2 | 100% | 5.0 | 22.9% | 9.2% | 13.7% | 0.4% | 3.08 | 2.54 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 13 | 79 | 326 | 60 | 22 | 10 | 76% | 4.6 | 16.6% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 4.35 | 4.48 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 13 | 79 | 326 | 60 | 22 | 10 | 76% | 4.6 | 18.4% | 6.7% | 11.7% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 4.07 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 17 | 15 | 82 | 351 | 67 | 28 | 10 | 88% | 4.8 | 17.6% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 3.86 | 4.33 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | STL | 5 | 5 | 31 | 130 | 24 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.2% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 4.05 | 4.13 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | STL | 5 | 5 | 31 | 131 | 24 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.2% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 4.05 | 4.13 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | STL | — | — | 113 | 481 | 91 | 39 | 14 | — | — | 18.8% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 2.8% | 3.91 | 4.28 | +1.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | STL | — | — | 53 | 225 | 91 | 39 | 14 | — | — | 40.4% | 17.3% | 23.0% | 6.0% | 8.27 | 5.20 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | STL | 13 | 13 | 78 | 329 | 67 | 30 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.47 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | STL | 13 | 13 | 76 | 320 | 65 | 29 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.3% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.54 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 74 | 312 | 63 | 28 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 62 | 28 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.3% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 48 | 44 | 260 | 1098 | 217 | 93 | 30 | 92% | 5.4 | 19.7% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 4.02 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 167 | 71 | 23 | 92% | 5.4 | 19.7% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 4.02 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 96 | 89 | 468 | 1970 | 362 | 165 | 45 | 93% | 4.9 | 18.4% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 2.3% | 3.89 | 3.86 | +8.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 38 | 200 | 842 | 155 | 71 | 19 | 93% | 4.9 | 18.4% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 2.3% | 3.89 | 3.86 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hunter Dobbins (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.46 | 18.5% | 8.5% | 2.7% | — | 4.50 | 20.3% | 11.2% | 154 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Pintaro R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.52 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 1.5% | .264 | 3.82 | 24.9% | 12.4% | 117 | +0.30 | 3.12 | 187 | 81 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 81 |
| Kumar Rocker R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.95 | 230 | 80 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.63 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | +0.03 | 3.22 | 254 | 78 |
| Markus Solbach R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.61 | 16.9% | 6.1% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.76 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 111 | +1.15 | 3.25 | 391 | 78 |
| Burch Smith R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 77 |
| Jake Walters R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.17 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .316 | 5.97 | 15.5% | -0.2% | 72 | +1.80 | 3.46 | 261 | 77 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.75 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .327 | 3.09 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.66 | 2.31 | 1,536 | 76 |
| Tim Atherton R 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.73 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 101 | 76 |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 75 |
| Tyson Hardin R 2024 · 3.45 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.45 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.47 | 177 | 75 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 74 |
| Alex Williams R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.23 | 17.7% | 10.5% | 4.2% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 322 | 74 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.0% | .262 | 3.13 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.44 | 3.13 | 137 | 74 |
| Jason Forjet R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.39 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 197 | 73 |
| Jake Lee R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.56 | 20.5% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .362 | 5.50 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 113 | +1.94 | 2.78 | 181 | 73 |
| Caleb Kilian R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.78 | 16.3% | 7.2% | 3.9% | .290 | 3.57 | 22.0% | 13.2% | 95 | -1.21 | 2.38 | 434 | 73 |
| Bryan Evans R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .250 | 4.75 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 132 | +0.81 | 3.72 | 231 | 73 |
| Justin Topa R 2027 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 15.1% | 7.9% | 2.2% | .374 | 2.66 | 19.2% | 12.6% | 40 | -1.39 | 2.66 | 259 | 73 |
| Nestor Molina R 2027 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 69 | 19.8% | 8.9% | 1.10 | 4.44 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |