Hunter Dobbins — OGILVIE

Hunter Dobbins P Memphis Redbirds

+0.4 WAR

INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.1 · 2027

ERA4.25

FIP4.33

xFIP4.11

SIERA4.32

K%19.0%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%10.8%

IP93

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.1peak

2027

K†5050

FB Velo

p6495.5

Whiff%

p2621.9%

p1817.6%

xwOBA vs

p530.309

SL+4.4 (37%)

SI (1%)

CU (12%)

FB-2.7 (42%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	22	A	Salem Red Sox	17	17	69	301	68	22	6	16.7%	8.6%	2.8%	5.22	4.34	+0.5
2023	23	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	20	19	113	468	122	31	9	20.7%	7.3%	2.3%	3.67	3.52	+2.3
2024	24	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	25	25	126	524	120	48	2	18.8%	10.0%	0.4%	3.08	3.01	+3.3
2025	25	MLB	Boston Red Sox	17	13	79	326	60	22	10	16.6%	7.2%	3.3%	4.35	4.45	+0.6
▸ 2026 Season
2026	26	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	3	3	15	59	14	4	2	20.9%	7.1%	3.7%	2.93	4.29	+0.1
ROS	26	MLB	STL	37	—	37	157	32	13	4	20.2%	8.2%	2.7%	4.24	4.29	+0.3
2026 Total	26	MLB	STL	—	—	53	216	46	17	6	21.2%	7.8%	2.9%	3.86	4.29	+0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	27	MLB	STL	18	18	96	407	83	33	11	20.4%	8.2%	2.7%	4.27	4.29	+1.1
2028	28	MLB	STL	18	18	97	410	84	34	11	20.5%	8.2%	2.8%	4.30	4.32	+1.1
2029	29	MLB	STL	17	17	95	401	80	33	11	20.1%	8.2%	2.8%	4.35	4.39	+0.9
2030	30	MLB	STL	17	17	92	389	76	32	11	19.6%	8.3%	2.9%	4.42	4.48	+0.8
2031	31	MLB	STL	16	16	89	375	71	32	11	19.0%	8.5%	3.0%	4.52	4.58	+0.6
2032	32	MLB	STL	16	16	85	360	66	31	11	18.4%	8.6%	3.1%	4.63	4.70	+0.5
2033	33	MLB	STL	15	15	82	344	61	30	11	17.7%	8.8%	3.1%	4.75	4.82	+0.3
2034	34	MLB	STL	14	14	77	327	62	27	11	19.0%	8.2%	3.2%	4.72	4.69	+0.4
2035	35	MLB	STL	13	13	73	308	56	26	10	18.3%	8.4%	3.4%	4.79	4.84	+0.2
2036	36	MLB	STL	12	12	68	288	50	25	10	17.5%	8.6%	3.5%	4.92	5.01	+0.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			82	77	401	1678	312	140	35	18.6%	8.4%	2.1%	3.86	3.72	+7.2
/ 200 IP	—			41	38	200	836	155	70	17	18.6%	8.4%	2.1%	3.86	3.72	+3.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hunter Dobbins (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.29	20.2%	8.2%	2.7%	—	4.33	20.3%	12.1%	288	+0.04	—	—	—
Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.60 FIP	26	SU	3.60	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.51	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.09	3.51	103	84
Jack Dallas R 2026 · 3.58 FIP	26	SU	3.58	18.9%	6.8%	2.2%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	169	83
Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.97 FIP	26	SU	3.97	21.7%	11.4%	2.3%	.292	4.93	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.96	3.84	299	83
Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	26	SU	3.85	22.0%	7.5%	3.0%	.333	4.24	18.2%	8.5%	116	+0.39	3.85	149	83
Jack Hartman R 2026 · 4.32 FIP	26	SU	4.32	20.9%	8.8%	3.4%	.310	4.30	17.6%	5.6%	46	-0.02	3.45	161	83
Bryan Shaw R 2027 · 3.91 FIP	27	SW	3.91	20.4%	6.8%	3.0%	.276	3.53	23.3%	15.0%	198	-0.38	2.86	596	82
Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.05 FIP	26	SW	4.05	21.2%	9.4%	2.8%	.295	4.28	21.8%	13.1%	41	+0.23	3.34	187	82
Esmerling De La Rosa R 2026 · 3.37 FIP	26	SU	3.37	20.5%	7.2%	2.0%	.313	4.87	14.1%	5.8%	66	+1.50	2.90	237	82
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2025 · 3.83 FIP	25	SU	3.83	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.38	3.83	181	82
David Goforth R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	26	SW	4.06	17.4%	9.8%	2.2%	.287	4.58	14.1%	3.6%	184	+0.52	4.06	256	81
Carlos Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.79 FIP	26	SW	3.79	18.2%	8.7%	2.1%	.266	4.46	14.3%	2.3%	36	+0.67	3.75	154	81
Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.52 FIP	26	SW	3.52	23.1%	9.3%	2.2%	.244	3.73	18.9%	11.1%	168	+0.21	3.18	253	81
Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.83 FIP	26	SW	3.83	20.2%	9.8%	2.2%	.303	4.06	19.2%	12.5%	143	+0.23	3.05	290	81
JC Ramírez R 2026 · 3.80 FIP	26	SW	3.80	16.6%	8.6%	1.8%	.285	4.32	17.1%	10.0%	226	+0.52	3.80	369	81
Austin Adams R 2028 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	18.6%	9.5%	1.4%	.331	3.28	21.1%	15.0%	56	-0.23	3.28	162	81
Juan Ramon Noriega R 2026 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	21.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.243	3.46	24.8%	17.1%	57	-1.00	3.46	198	81
Josh Martin R 2026 · 3.38 FIP	26	SW	3.38	19.1%	8.7%	1.4%	.279	4.03	21.5%	10.2%	92	+0.65	2.43	225	81
John Brebbia R 2026 · 4.15 FIP	26	SW	4.15	18.6%	6.6%	3.3%	.346	3.23	27.6%	21.4%	215	-0.92	2.96	523	81
Rob Scahill R 2028 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	16.9%	7.7%	2.0%	.288	3.35	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.40	3.08	201	81
Troy Neiman R 2026 · 3.99 FIP	26	SW	3.99	18.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	199	81

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.884 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.8M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$9M	+$8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$9M	+$9M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+0.9	$4M	+$1M
2030	Arb-2	$4M	+0.8	$4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$5M	+0.6	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$12M		$30M	+$19M