Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 17 | 17 | 48 | 225 | 65 | 31 | 4 | 100% | 2.8 | 22.2% | 15.8% | 6.4% | 2.5% | 5.77 | 4.61 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 17 | 17 | 48 | 225 | 65 | 31 | 4 | 100% | 2.8 | 28.9% | 13.8% | 15.1% | 1.8% | 5.77 | 3.41 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 26 | 0 | 32 | 154 | 40 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.5% | 15.3% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 7.79 | 5.05 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SD | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 56 | 39 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 15.4% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 5.14 | 5.14 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.4% | 15.4% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 5.14 | 5.14 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | SD | — | — | 92 | 405 | 96 | 60 | 11 | — | — | 23.8% | 14.7% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 6.07 | 5.11 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | SD | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.4% | 15.4% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 5.14 | 4.76 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SD | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 57 | 37 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 14.7% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 5.05 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SD | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 56 | 36 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 14.4% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 5.01 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | SD | 54 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 54 | 34 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 14.3% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 5.03 | 5.07 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SD | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 25 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 14.7% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 5.05 | 5.04 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SD | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 36 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 14.4% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 5.01 | 5.02 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | SD | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 41 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 14.3% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 5.03 | 5.07 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 100 | 0 | 105 | 445 | 101 | 64 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 14.4% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 5.03 | 4.67 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 121 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 14.4% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 5.03 | 4.67 | +1.7 | ||
| Career | — | 43 | 17 | 81 | 379 | 82 | 59 | 11 | 40% | 1.9 | 21.5% | 15.6% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 6.58 | 4.79 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 107 | 42 | 200 | 940 | 202 | 147 | 26 | 40% | 1.9 | 21.5% | 15.6% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 6.58 | 4.79 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Clark Candiotti (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.14 | 22.4% | 15.4% | 2.9% | — | 5.04 | 22.7% | 8.2% | 175 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Sean Isaac R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.25 | 24.2% | 16.3% | 2.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 155 | 83 |
| Grant Black R 2028 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 83 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 80 |
| Preston Johnson R 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.04 | 21.1% | 17.2% | 2.8% | .270 | 3.47 | 23.4% | 13.9% | 42 | -1.57 | 3.47 | 146 | 80 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.50 | 22.7% | 16.4% | 4.1% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 181 | 80 |
| Ryan Jensen R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.69 | 21.2% | 18.6% | 1.9% | .329 | 4.35 | 25.0% | 5.4% | 107 | -0.34 | 4.20 | 311 | 79 |
| Fernando Baez R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.39 | 24.3% | 21.2% | 3.0% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 129 | 79 |
| Gabriel Ponce R 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.73 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 3.1% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 161 | 79 |
| Jimmy Joyce R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.56 | 17.8% | 14.2% | 2.1% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 259 | 79 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.43 | 18.4% | 2.3% | 111 | +0.24 | 3.87 | 192 | 78 |
| Carter Loewen R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.32 | 23.1% | 15.0% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.25 | 20.0% | 11.9% | 23 | -0.07 | 2.67 | 145 | 78 |
| Marcos Tineo R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.91 | 22.2% | 14.4% | 3.4% | .320 | 6.95 | 7.8% | -24.1% | 10 | +2.04 | 3.52 | 273 | 78 |
| Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.12 | 26.5% | 19.8% | 3.2% | .403 | 4.00 | 23.7% | 11.2% | 93 | -1.12 | 2.72 | 153 | 77 |
| Nick Ernst R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 117 | 76 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 106 | 76 |
| Richard Guasch R 2025 · 4.44 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.44 | 22.3% | 16.2% | 2.1% | .287 | 3.21 | 23.8% | 11.8% | 72 | -1.23 | 2.94 | 293 | 76 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 2.7% | .271 | 4.65 | 19.5% | 11.5% | 99 | +0.39 | 3.81 | 233 | 76 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 76 |
| Andrew McInvale R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.08 | 17.6% | 15.9% | 2.6% | .324 | 7.06 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 23 | +1.98 | 4.90 | 103 | 76 |
| Connor Walsh R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.01 | 22.3% | 15.7% | 3.3% | .387 | 3.96 | 19.4% | 5.5% | 62 | -1.05 | 3.40 | 266 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 59 | 22.6% | 14.7% | 1.15 | 5.06 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |