Noah Denoyer prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Noah Denoyer P Norfolk Tides

Age 28 RHP 6'5" / 250 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.70

FIP4.70

K%22.8%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%11.3%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	21	ROK MLE	GCL Orioles	3	1	4	16	5	1	0	33%	1.3	31.2%	6.2%	25.0%	0.0%	4.50	1.25	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	GCL Orioles	3	1	4	16	5	1	0	33%	1.3	31.2%	6.2%	25.0%	0.0%	4.50	1.35	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	11	72	292	81	30	7	55%	3.6	21.5%	12.1%	9.4%	3.1%	2.76	4.51	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	11	72	292	81	30	7	55%	3.6	27.7%	10.3%	17.5%	2.4%	2.76	3.37	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	5	72	279	99	17	8	24%	3.4	28.2%	7.0%	21.2%	3.0%	2.89	3.26	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	5	72	279	99	17	8	24%	3.4	35.5%	6.1%	29.4%	2.9%	2.89	2.50	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	25	5	51	244	63	38	9	20%	2.1	22.2%	14.0%	8.2%	4.1%	5.61	5.24	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	25	5	51	244	63	38	9	20%	2.1	22.2%	14.0%	8.2%	4.1%	5.61	5.24	—
2023	25	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	25	5	51	244	63	38	9	20%	2.1	25.8%	15.6%	10.2%	3.7%	5.61	5.15	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	BAL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.8%	11.4%	11.3%	3.1%	4.70	4.70	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	BAL	32	0	34	144	32	16	5	0%	1.1	22.6%	11.4%	11.2%	3.2%	4.74	4.79	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	BAL	12	0	13	55	12	6	2	0%	1.1	22.6%	11.4%	11.2%	3.2%	4.74	4.79	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	13	53	12	6	2	0%	1.0	22.6%	11.4%	11.2%	3.2%	4.74	4.41	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	96	32	0%	1.1	22.6%	11.4%	11.2%	3.2%	4.74	4.41	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		69	22	199	831	201	90	27	32%	2.9	24.2%	10.8%	13.3%	3.3%	3.58	4.24	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		69	22	200	837	202	91	28	32%	2.9	24.2%	10.8%	13.3%	3.3%	3.58	4.24	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Noah Denoyer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.70	22.8%	11.4%	3.1%	—	4.79	22.6%	11.2%	34	+0.09	—	—	—
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	76
Nelson Gonzalez R 2018 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.2%	8.2%	4.6%	.311	6.22	16.9%	4.6%	74	+1.19	3.42	258	74
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	73
Carlos Torres R 2010 · 4.50 FIP	27	SW	4.50	18.3%	11.3%	2.8%	.438	3.89	20.1%	13.2%	139	-0.61	2.89	604	73
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	72
Luis Santos R 2019 · 4.31 FIP	28	SU	4.31	22.9%	10.0%	3.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	472	72
Alfonso Sanchez R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SW	5.26	15.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.244	5.55	11.2%	2.3%	115	+0.29	4.51	224	70
Casey Sadler R 2018 · 3.95 FIP	28	SW	3.95	16.0%	7.8%	2.2%	.298	3.35	23.2%	16.5%	145	-0.60	2.21	385	70
Calvin Drummond R 2016 · 3.55 FIP	26	SW	3.55	16.9%	11.1%	0.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	112	70
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	69
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	69
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	69
Todd Wellemeyer R 2007 · 4.74 FIP	28	SW	4.74	17.0%	10.8%	3.1%	.270	4.86	15.5%	6.4%	373	+0.12	3.35	615	69
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	69
Chris Kachmar R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	26	SW	4.82	20.5%	7.8%	4.5%	.319	4.65	18.4%	7.3%	248	-0.17	4.29	360	68
Dustin Nippert R 2009 · 4.09 FIP	28	SP-	4.09	18.0%	9.7%	2.3%	.271	4.49	17.9%	6.1%	57	+0.40	3.83	268	68
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	68
Cody Poteet R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	28	SW	4.79	18.4%	9.6%	3.7%	.244	3.73	21.1%	13.3%	68	-1.06	3.52	619	67
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	67
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	35	22.7%	11.4%	1.22	4.72
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68