Evan Gray

P San Jose Giants

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 222 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	24	ASF	37	48	4.53	2.66	26.1%	12.4%	—	K 19.3% · BB 14.6% · FIP 3.55
2026	25	ASF	28	50	5.36	3.60	21.1%	12.1%	—	K 15.6% · BB 14.2% · FIP 4.51
2027PROJ	26	MLBSF	67	70	5.52	5.52	17.1%	15.7%	-0.8
2028PROJ36% MLB	27	MLBSF	24	25	5.42	5.43	17.7%	15.1%	-0.2
2029PROJ59% MLB	28	MLBSF	37	39	5.40	5.43	18.0%	14.8%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control30Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsJuan Paniagua (age 26) · Jake Gilbert (age 25) · Julian Arballo (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.52

FIP5.52

K%17.1%

BB%15.7%

K-BB%1.4%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3030

CMD4040

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	24	A MLE	San Jose Giants	37	0	48	226	59	28	1	0%	1.3	19.3%	14.6%	4.7%	0.4%	4.53	3.55	—
2025	24	A MLE	San Jose Giants	37	0	48	226	59	28	1	0%	1.3	19.3%	14.6%	4.7%	0.4%	4.53	3.55	—
2025	24	A RAW	San Jose Giants	37	0	48	226	59	28	1	0%	1.3	26.1%	12.4%	13.7%	0.4%	4.53	2.66	—
2026	25	A MLE	San Jose Giants	28	0	50	232	49	28	3	0%	1.8	15.6%	14.2%	1.4%	1.7%	5.36	4.51	—
2026	25	A MLE	San Jose Giants	28	0	50	232	49	28	3	0%	1.8	15.6%	14.2%	1.4%	1.7%	5.36	4.51	—
2026	25	A RAW	San Jose Giants	28	0	50	232	49	28	3	0%	1.8	21.1%	12.1%	9.1%	1.3%	5.36	3.60	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	SF	67	0	70	296	51	46	8	0%	1.0	17.1%	15.7%	1.4%	2.7%	5.52	5.52	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	SF	66	0	69	291	52	44	8	0%	1.0	17.7%	15.1%	2.6%	2.8%	5.42	5.43	-0.7
2029	28	MLB MLE	SF	64	0	67	282	51	42	8	0%	1.0	18.0%	14.8%	3.2%	2.9%	5.40	5.43	-0.7
2030	29	MLB MLE	SF	61	0	64	270	49	40	8	0%	1.0	18.1%	14.8%	3.3%	3.1%	5.45	5.51	-0.7
2028	27	MLB CTX	SF	24	0	25	106	19	16	3	0%	1.0	17.7%	15.1%	2.6%	2.8%	5.42	5.43	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	SF	37	0	39	165	30	24	5	0%	1.1	18.0%	14.8%	3.2%	2.9%	5.40	5.43	-0.4
2030	29	MLB CTX	SF	43	0	45	190	34	28	6	0%	1.0	18.1%	14.8%	3.3%	3.1%	5.45	5.51	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		104	0	109	461	83	69	14	0%	1.1	18.0%	14.9%	3.1%	2.9%	5.43	5.09	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	152	126	26	0%	1.1	18.0%	14.9%	3.1%	2.9%	5.43	5.09	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		65	0	98	458	80	66	5	0%	1.5	17.4%	14.4%	3.0%	1.1%	4.96	4.04	-2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		133	0	200	935	163	135	10	0%	1.5	17.4%	14.4%	3.0%	1.1%	4.96	4.04	-2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Evan Gray (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.52	17.1%	15.7%	2.7%	—	5.46	17.9%	3.0%	200	-0.06	—	—	—
Juan Paniagua R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	26	SU	4.57	17.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.246	4.75	12.9%	-1.0%	29	+0.18	4.57	151	88
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	87
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	87
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	86
Trey Haley R 2016 · 4.98 FIP	26	SU	4.98	14.0%	16.5%	1.8%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	111	85
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	84
Cole Hillier R 2024 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	16.9%	14.7%	2.0%	.297	4.45	18.1%	4.5%	111	-0.19	3.80	169	84
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	84
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	84
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	83
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	83
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	83
Rob Huber R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	117	83
Dusty Isaacs R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	26	SU	5.26	19.3%	14.1%	3.7%	.287	3.16	26.8%	20.6%	26	-2.10	3.16	253	82
Holt Jones R 2024 · 4.36 FIP	25	SU	4.36	19.0%	15.0%	1.8%	.326	4.32	22.4%	8.3%	123	-0.04	4.21	254	82
Luis García R 2013 · 4.92 FIP	26	SU	4.92	16.7%	16.7%	2.0%	.270	3.68	20.3%	9.3%	151	-1.24	2.33	662	82
Daniel Webb R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	15.7%	13.4%	2.0%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	126	82
Billy Seidl R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	18.3%	14.2%	2.2%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	102	82
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	81
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	17.7%	15.1%	1.11	5.45
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*