Anders Tolhurst

P Buffalo Bisons

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 190 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	MIX3 levels	23	2	40	5.62	2.25	27.9%	7.0%	—	K 20.9% · BB 9.2% · FIP 2.93
2024	24	MIX2 levels	44	0	60	3.32	3.47	30.1%	5.6%	—	K 23.9% · BB 6.3% · FIP 4.18
2025	25	MIX2 levels	18	16	81	4.65	4.53	20.4%	9.8%	—	K 16.9% · BB 9.1% · FIP 5.63
2027PROJ	27	MLBTOR	67	0	70	5.20	5.20	17.0%	9.6%	-0.5
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBTOR	28	0	29	5.16	5.19	17.5%	9.7%	-0.2
2029PROJ59% MLB	29	MLBTOR	36	0	38	5.19	5.26	17.7%	9.9%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control50Command40

CompsJorge Reyes (age 27) · Donovan Hand (age 27) · Tyler Yates (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.20

FIP5.20

K%17.0%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%7.5%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	3	12	59	20	10	0	43%	1.8	33.9%	16.9%	16.9%	0.0%	3.65	2.38	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	3	12	59	20	10	0	43%	1.8	33.9%	16.9%	16.9%	0.0%	3.65	2.29	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	2	40	172	48	12	2	9%	1.7	20.9%	9.2%	11.7%	0.8%	5.62	2.93	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	2	40	172	48	12	2	9%	1.7	27.9%	7.0%	20.9%	1.2%	5.62	2.25	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	60	249	75	14	10	0%	1.4	23.9%	6.3%	17.7%	4.2%	3.32	4.18	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	60	249	75	14	10	0%	1.4	23.9%	6.3%	17.7%	4.2%	3.32	4.18	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	60	249	75	14	10	0%	1.4	30.1%	5.6%	24.5%	4.0%	3.32	3.47	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	16	81	348	71	34	12	89%	4.5	16.9%	9.1%	7.7%	5.1%	4.65	5.63	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	16	81	348	71	34	12	89%	4.5	16.9%	9.1%	7.7%	5.1%	4.65	5.63	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	16	81	348	71	34	12	89%	4.5	20.4%	9.8%	10.6%	3.4%	4.65	4.53	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	TOR	67	0	70	296	50	28	10	0%	1.0	17.0%	9.6%	7.5%	3.5%	5.20	5.20	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	TOR	65	0	68	287	50	28	10	0%	1.0	17.5%	9.7%	7.9%	3.6%	5.16	5.19	-0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	TOR	62	0	65	274	49	27	10	0%	1.0	17.7%	9.9%	7.9%	3.7%	5.19	5.26	-0.5
2028	28	MLB CTX	TOR	28	0	29	122	21	12	4	0%	1.0	17.5%	9.7%	7.9%	3.6%	5.16	5.19	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	TOR	36	0	38	160	28	16	6	0%	1.1	17.7%	9.9%	7.9%	3.7%	5.19	5.26	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	0	67	283	50	28	10	0%	1.0	17.7%	9.8%	7.9%	3.6%	5.18	4.85	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	149	83	30	0%	1.1	17.7%	9.8%	7.9%	3.6%	5.18	4.85	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		92	21	193	828	174	73	30	23%	2.1	21.1%	8.8%	12.2%	3.6%	4.38	4.40	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		95	22	200	857	180	76	31	23%	2.1	21.1%	8.8%	12.2%	3.6%	4.38	4.40	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Anders Tolhurst (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.20	17.0%	9.6%	3.5%	—	5.22	17.6%	7.9%	133	+0.02	—	—	—
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	92
Donovan Hand R 2013 · 4.72 FIP	27	SW	4.72	12.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.279	4.30	11.1%	6.8%	97	-0.42	4.30	305	86
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	85
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	84
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	84
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	83
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	83
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	82
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	82
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	82
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	81
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	80
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	80
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	79
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	79
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	79
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	79
Esmerling De La Rosa R 2018 · 4.86 FIP	27	SU	4.86	14.1%	8.3%	3.5%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	237	79
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	79
Robert Kwiatkowski R 2024 · 4.03 FIP	27	SU	4.03	18.3%	9.0%	2.4%	.255	4.23	15.9%	2.3%	20	+0.20	4.03	254	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	17.4%	9.7%	1.39	5.18
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*