Justin Dirden — OGILVIE

Justin DirdenRF Biloxi Shuckers

Age 29 L/R 6'3" / 209 lbs AA HR -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 170 proj PA

wRC+†63

AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .261 / .331

PA170

HR4

K%31

BB%7

ISO135

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	24	A	2 teams	—	350	301	58	12	5	8	36	137	9	10	4	193	298	346	643	153	312	39	10	284	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	A	2 teams	—	350	285	78	18	6	15	52	100	9	10	4	274	402	537	939	263	362	29	15	406	169	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA	2 teams	—	549	497	117	32	4	19	31	189	15	12	3	235	300	431	731	195	334	34	6	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA	2 teams	—	549	477	144	40	5	24	51	134	15	12	3	302	387	558	944	256	372	24	9	408	170	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	364	329	63	12	3	9	24	139	3	4	3	191	253	328	581	137	292	38	7	255	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	364	316	73	12	5	10	37	108	3	4	3	231	317	396	713	165	312	30	10	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	88	81	12	1	2	0	5	42	0	3	0	148	198	210	408	62	293	48	6	179	-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	88	79	14	1	2	0	7	32	0	3	0	177	244	241	485	63	286	36	8	220	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	29	MLB	MIL	—	170	155	31	6	1	4	12	53	1	3	1	200	262	329	591	129	268	31	7	268	63	-7	+0	+0	-2	+5	-0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	30	MLB	MIL	23%	243	221	44	8	1	6	18	75	2	4	1	199	266	326	591	127	269	31	7	270	65	-10	+0	-2	-3	+7	-0.7
2027	30	MLB	MIL	23%	55	51	9	2	0	1	4	17	0	1	0	176	236	275	511	98	267	31	7	262	58	-3	+0	-0	-1	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	55	51	9	2	0	1	4	17	0	1	0	176	236	275	511	98	242	31	7	262	58	-3	+0	-0	-1	+2	-0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	603	107	24	0	12	47	201	0	12	0	177	237	277	514	100	244	31	7	262	58	-31	+2	-6	-7	+18	-2.3
Career	—			—	1764	1584	325	71	16	46	126	635	30	36	12	205	276	357	634	152	304	36	7	278	71	-58	+2	-2	-19	+50	-2.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	120	26	6	17	46	234	11	13	4	205	276	358	634	152	304	36	7	278	71	-21	+1	-1	-7	+18	-1.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	24	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	101	83	24	3	3	4	12	26	3	2	3	289	398	542	940	253	357	26	12	399	163	+7	-1	—	—	+3	0.9
2021	24	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	249	202	54	15	3	11	40	74	6	8	1	267	403	535	938	267	364	30	16	409	171	+20	+1	—	—	+7	2.9
2022	25	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	142	128	31	8	0	4	10	40	2	5	1	242	307	398	706	156	318	28	7	312	97	-1	+1	—	—	+4	0.4
2022	25	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	407	349	113	32	5	20	41	94	13	7	2	324	414	616	1.030	292	391	23	10	441	196	+44	+1	—	—	+12	5.7
2023	26	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	364	316	73	12	5	10	37	108	3	4	3	231	317	396	713	165	312	30	10	313	98	-1	-0	—	—	+10	0.9
2024	27	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	88	79	14	1	2	0	7	32	0	3	0	177	244	241	485	63	286	36	8	220	27	-7	+1	—	—	+2	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Justin Dirden (OGILVIE)	29	—	—	—	—	197/261/331	134	268	4	3	31%	7%	63	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Sam Hilliard 2023 · MLB	29	34→44	52→55	54→55	46	190/270/352	162	253	20	14	33%	9%	72	-0.2	207/279/371	164	297	19	17	35%	9%	80	+0.4	194/264/366	172	280	19	20	36%	9%	70	-0.2
✕Matt Skole 2019 · AAA	30	35→40	46→50	46→40	43	188/251/315	127	246	14	4	30%	7%	53	-1.5	199/271/328	129	281	15	5	32%	9%	66	-0.6	180/265/310	129	253	16	0	34%	10%	59	-0.9
✕Mark Contreras 2022 · AAA	27	38→37	48→50	50→55	37	196/260/344	148	289	16	15	36%	6%	66	-0.6	202/262/337	135	291	16	24	35%	6%	65	-0.7	191/254/310	119	273	15	30	34%	6%	50	-1.2
✕Ryan Fitzgerald 2023 · AAA	29	37→42	52→55	43→45	42	199/262/366	167	247	19	7	28%	6%	72	-0.2	207/272/356	149	273	16	9	29%	7%	73	-0.1	226/290/351	125	289	12	8	25%	7%	75	+0.0
✕Tim Pahuta 2011 · AA	28	38→41	50→55	45→40	36	206/240/356	150	264	18	5	30%	4%	59	-1.1	214/254/382	168	279	22	4	31%	5%	72	-0.2	208/251/385	177	264	24	2	31%	5%	71	-0.2
✕Ryan Cordell 2021 · MLB	29	42	45→50	49→50	41	213/268/337	124	286	13	11	30%	6%	66	-0.6	208/271/377	169	328	22	14	41%	7%	79	+0.3	153/218/323	171	234	27	18	47%	6%	41	-0.9
✕Brandon Hicks 2015 · MLB	29	36→41	49→50	46→50	41	187/265/334	147	282	18	7	38%	8%	66	-0.6	188/258/303	115	312	13	8	41%	8%	54	-1.4	165/233/253	88	291	10	8	44%	7%	27	-1.3
✕Jose Manuel Orozco 2019 · AAA	28	44	46→50	47→45	39	221/268/347	126	302	14	10	31%	6%	69	-0.4	233/281/382	149	336	17	10	34%	5%	83	+0.6	233/280/392	159	341	19	6	36%	5%	84	+0.3
✕Michael Pérez 2022 · MLB	29	35	49→50	40	46	187/262/332	145	237	17	4	29%	8%	63	-0.8	186/260/320	134	240	17	4	29%	8%	59	-1.1	167/245/284	117	216	16	1	31%	8%	43	-0.9
✕Quincy Latimore 2017 · AA	28	38→41	47→50	45→50	40	199/251/330	132	266	15	7	31%	6%	57	-1.2	212/260/337	125	294	15	8	32%	6%	63	-0.9	210/247/324	114	281	15	6	31%	4%	50	-1.2
✕Matt Cepicky 2007 · MLB	29	44→43	45→50	42→30	45	220/274/344	123	280	12	4	26%	7%	70	-0.3	213/263/361	148	289	16	5	31%	6%	70	-0.3	194/243/358	164	265	19	1	34%	6%	62	-0.7
✕Adam Fox 2011 · AAA	29	39→44	47→50	49→45	40	202/251/335	133	253	16	9	27%	5%	59	-1.1	204/249/337	133	259	14	9	26%	5%	58	-1.2	184/221/327	143	224	14	6	25%	4%	39	-1.1
✕Brett Carroll 2012 · MLB	29	42→45	49→55	49→50	44	216/283/361	146	264	17	11	25%	6%	80	+0.4	208/273/348	140	279	17	10	30%	7%	72	-0.2	195/266/336	142	262	18	10	32%	8%	62	-0.5
✕Jason Smith 2006 · MLB	29	41→35	47→55	51→50	38	212/247/355	143	270	14	14	27%	4%	62	-0.9	219/260/375	156	300	18	9	32%	5%	72	-0.2	208/246/368	159	291	19	5	35%	4%	62	-0.5
✕Connor Hoover 2023 · AA	27	34→29	46→50	50	43	180/253/311	131	257	14	12	35%	8%	54	-1.4	199/273/346	147	278	18	12	33%	8%	72	-0.2	173/257/338	165	221	24	12	34%	9%	60	-0.5
✕Anthony Bemboom 2020 · MLB	30	39	42→45	44→45	43	195/253/296	100	257	10	4	28%	7%	49	-1.8	210/278/339	129	269	14	5	26%	8%	71	-0.3	209/279/326	117	268	12	2	26%	8%	66	-0.2
✕Roger Kieschnick 2015 · MLB	28	39→46	47→55	49→45	39	203/254/343	140	277	15	6	32%	6%	62	-0.9	203/249/336	133	285	15	8	33%	5%	58	-1.2	190/234/317	127	271	15	3	35%	5%	44	-1.6
✕Camden Duzenack 2023 · AAA	28	38→37	50	51→50	36	205/243/354	149	265	18	13	31%	4%	60	-1.0	223/281/343	120	285	12	10	25%	6%	73	-0.1	228/298/319	92	290	8	6	23%	7%	72	-0.1
✕Brian O'Grady 2019 · AAA	27	40→37	49→60	52→50	45	205/274/357	151	272	16	12	30%	8%	75	-0.0	214/272/399	185	289	23	15	33%	7%	85	+0.7	198/260/387	189	265	25	17	35%	7%	74	-0.0
✕Josh Lester 2023 · AAA	29	37→41	56→60	46→40	40	209/260/403	194	254	25	6	29%	6%	81	+0.4	212/257/387	175	263	23	5	29%	5%	76	+0.0	203/248/376	172	249	24	2	29%	5%	66	-0.5