Justin Dirden — OGILVIE

Justin DirdenRF Biloxi Shuckers

Age 29 L/R 6'3" / 209 lbs AA HR +10%K +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 170 proj PA

wRC+†67

AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .263 / .325

PA14

HR0

K%31

BB%7

ISO130

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	24	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	101	83	24	3	3	4	12	26	3	2	3	289	398	542	940	253	357	26	12	399	156	+7	-1	—	—	+2	0.8
2021	24	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	249	202	54	15	3	11	40	74	6	8	1	267	403	535	938	267	364	30	16	409	163	+19	+1	—	—	+5	2.6
2022	25	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	142	128	31	8	0	4	10	40	2	5	1	242	307	398	706	156	318	28	7	312	97	-1	+1	—	—	+3	0.3
2022	25	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	407	349	113	32	5	20	41	94	13	7	2	324	414	616	1.030	292	391	23	10	441	185	+41	+1	—	—	+9	5.2
2023	26	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	364	316	73	12	5	10	37	108	3	4	3	231	317	396	713	165	312	30	10	313	98	-1	-0	—	—	+8	0.7
2024	27	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	88	79	14	1	2	0	7	32	0	3	0	177	244	241	485	63	286	36	8	220	35	-7	+1	—	—	+2	-0.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	24	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	101	87	20	2	3	3	8	35	3	2	3	230	316	425	742	195	305	35	8	311	97	-0	-1	—	—	+2	0.1
2021	24	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	249	214	40	10	2	7	28	101	6	8	1	187	298	350	649	164	303	41	11	285	79	-6	+1	—	—	+5	0.0
2022	25	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	142	131	25	6	0	3	7	52	2	5	1	191	243	305	548	115	283	37	5	245	52	-8	+1	—	—	+3	-0.5
2022	25	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	407	364	95	27	4	15	26	121	13	7	2	261	333	481	813	220	336	30	6	342	118	+9	+1	—	—	+9	1.8
2023	26	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	364	328	59	10	3	8	25	139	3	4	3	180	244	302	546	122	268	38	7	243	51	-21	-0	—	—	+8	-1.4
2024	27	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	88	81	12	1	2	0	5	39	0	3	0	148	198	210	408	62	262	44	6	180	8	-10	+1	—	—	+2	-0.7
2021	24	A MLE	2 teams	—	350	301	60	12	5	10	36	136	9	10	4	199	303	372	676	173	314	39	10	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	A RAW	2 teams	—	350	285	78	18	6	15	52	100	9	10	4	274	402	537	939	263	362	29	15	406	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	549	495	120	33	4	18	33	174	15	12	3	242	309	434	744	192	332	32	6	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA RAW	2 teams	—	549	477	144	40	5	24	51	134	15	12	3	302	387	558	944	256	372	24	9	408	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	364	328	59	10	3	8	25	139	3	4	3	180	244	302	546	122	276	38	7	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	364	316	73	12	5	10	37	108	3	4	3	231	317	396	713	165	312	30	10	313	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	88	81	12	1	2	0	5	39	0	3	0	148	198	210	408	62	273	44	6	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	—	88	79	14	1	2	0	7	32	0	3	0	177	244	241	485	63	286	36	8	220	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	A MLE	2 teams	—	350	302	60	12	5	10	36	136	9	10	4	199	303	371	674	172	304	39	10	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	549	496	120	33	4	18	33	174	15	12	3	242	309	433	743	192	322	32	6	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	364	333	59	10	3	8	25	139	3	4	3	177	244	297	542	120	268	38	7	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	88	83	12	1	2	0	5	39	0	3	0	145	198	205	402	60	262	44	6	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	26	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	364	333	59	10	3	8	25	139	3	4	3	177	244	297	542	120	268	38	7	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	88	83	12	1	2	0	5	39	0	3	0	145	198	205	402	60	262	44	6	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	29	MLB MLE	MIL	2%	14	13	2	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	154	214	154	368		268	29	7	267	67	-1	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	MIL	23%	243	221	44	8	1	6	18	74	2	4	1	199	266	326	591	127	269	30	7	269	68	-9	+0	-2	-3	+5	-0.8
2027	30	MLB CTX	MIL	23%	55	51	10	2	0	1	4	17	0	1	0	196	255	294	549	98	268	31	7	264	68	-2	+0	-0	-1	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	55	51	10	2	0	1	4	17	0	1	0	196	255	294	549	98	273	31	7	264	75	-2	+0	-0	-1	+1	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	603	119	24	0	12	47	201	0	12	0	197	255	297	552	100	274	31	7	264	75	-24	+2	-6	-7	+14	-2.1
Career	—	MLE		—	1608	1439	297	64	15	42	118	566	29	33	11	206	280	359	639	153	301	35	7	280	75	-10	+0	-2	-3	+6	-0.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	120	26	6	17	48	229	12	13	4	206	281	359	640	153	301	35	7	280	75	-25	+1	-5	-7	+14	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Justin Dirden (OGILVIE)	29	—	—	—	—	197/263/325	129	268	4	3	31%	7%	67	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Matt Skole 2018 · AAA	29	36→41	49→50	46→40	44	196/258/339	143	243	18	3	28%	7%	68	-1.0	194/267/317	123	268	14	4	31%	9%	66	-1.1	181/262/293	112	252	12	2	32%	9%	57	-1.4
✕Josh Lester 2023 · AAA	29	37→42	54→55	46→40	40	206/255/385	179	254	22	6	29%	6%	77	-0.3	210/256/366	156	264	19	5	28%	5%	73	-0.6	203/248/353	149	253	20	2	28%	5%	65	-1.0
✕Brett Carroll 2012 · MLB	29	42→45	47→55	48→50	44	214/281/347	133	264	14	11	25%	6%	78	-0.3	205/271/329	124	273	14	10	29%	7%	70	-0.8	191/262/312	122	255	14	10	30%	8%	60	-1.0
✕John-Ford Griffin 2009 · AAA	29	43→38	50	49→40	44	223/280/379	156	278	18	4	27%	7%	84	+0.2	222/281/347	125	298	11	8	28%	7%	78	-0.3	205/266/311	106	289	6	7	29%	6%	62	-0.9
✕Andy Wilkins 2018 · MLB	29	37→45	50	50→45	44	197/261/346	149	255	18	5	30%	8%	70	-0.8	187/257/338	151	270	20	6	37%	8%	67	-1.1	144/219/292	148	195	22	2	39%	8%	40	-1.1
✕Brandon Hicks 2015 · MLB	29	36→40	49→50	46→50	42	189/267/338	149	282	18	7	38%	9%	71	-0.8	189/261/304	115	312	13	8	40%	8%	61	-1.5	166/235/251	85	293	9	8	44%	8%	36	-1.3
✕Mark Contreras 2022 · AAA	27	39→38	47→50	50→55	38	197/263/340	143	289	14	15	36%	6%	70	-0.9	200/262/323	123	290	14	24	34%	6%	65	-1.2	188/254/295	106	273	12	30	34%	6%	53	-1.5
✕Matt Cepicky 2007 · MLB	29	44→43	45→50	42→30	45	221/275/344	124	281	12	4	26%	7%	74	-0.6	214/266/355	141	288	15	5	30%	7%	73	-0.6	194/243/347	153	262	17	1	32%	6%	64	-1.0
✕Camden Duzenack 2023 · AAA	28	39→36	49→50	51→50	37	207/247/351	144	269	17	13	30%	4%	65	-1.2	231/288/355	124	292	12	10	24%	6%	82	-0.0	243/308/345	102	303	9	6	22%	6%	84	+0.1
✕Michael Pérez 2022 · MLB	29	35	49→50	40	46	188/262/334	147	237	17	4	29%	8%	68	-1.0	187/261/319	132	239	17	4	29%	8%	64	-1.3	170/248/285	115	218	16	1	30%	8%	50	-0.9
✕Jason Cooper 2008 · AAA	27	42→38	47→50	51→45	43	210/271/357	147	279	13	9	29%	7%	76	-0.4	211/281/340	129	269	10	8	24%	8%	76	-0.4	205/288/337	132	247	11	3	21%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Ryan Cordell 2021 · MLB	29	43	46→50	49→50	42	215/271/341	126	287	13	11	30%	6%	72	-0.7	204/270/355	151	326	19	14	41%	7%	76	-0.4	143/213/283	140	229	22	18	47%	7%	37	-1.2
✕Brian O'Grady 2019 · AAA	27	40→38	47→55	52→50	45	206/276/349	144	272	14	12	29%	8%	76	-0.4	214/274/384	170	291	20	15	32%	7%	84	+0.1	200/265/376	176	270	21	17	33%	7%	77	-0.3
✕Tim Pahuta 2012 · AA	29	39→41	52→55	45→40	36	212/247/374	162	273	21	5	31%	4%	71	-0.8	209/255/352	143	271	16	5	28%	5%	69	-0.9	189/237/327	138	238	15	2	28%	5%	55	-1.5
✕Ryan Fitzgerald 2023 · AAA	29	38→48	48→50	43→45	42	197/261/345	148	252	15	7	28%	6%	70	-0.8	205/271/344	139	274	14	9	29%	7%	73	-0.6	227/288/354	128	289	13	8	25%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Connor Hoover 2023 · AA	27	34→30	46→50	50	44	180/256/309	130	256	14	12	34%	9%	60	-1.6	194/270/319	125	275	14	12	33%	8%	68	-1.0	163/251/289	126	221	17	12	33%	9%	52	-1.1
✕Quincy Latimore 2017 · AA	28	39→43	46→50	45→50	42	204/258/334	130	266	14	7	29%	6%	65	-1.2	216/265/341	125	294	14	8	30%	6%	70	-0.9	218/256/337	119	286	16	6	29%	4%	62	-1.0
✕Jose Manuel Orozco 2019 · AAA	28	45	44→45	48→45	40	223/273/341	119	304	12	10	30%	6%	72	-0.7	233/284/375	142	336	15	10	34%	6%	85	+0.2	232/278/378	146	339	17	6	35%	5%	82	-0.0
✕Simon Pond 2006 · MLB	29	44→43	50→55	47→45	41	223/278/374	151	293	18	8	30%	6%	82	+0.0	221/276/356	135	296	13	6	29%	7%	78	-0.3	213/269/344	131	284	12	3	28%	7%	72	-0.7
✕Jason Smith 2006 · MLB	29	41→35	46→55	51→50	38	211/247/348	137	269	13	14	27%	4%	64	-1.3	219/260/373	154	301	18	9	32%	5%	76	-0.4	208/246/368	159	291	19	5	35%	4%	66	-0.6