Jared Johnson

P Midland RockHounds

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 225 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #772

ETA2029FG ETA2026MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	22	MIX2 levels	28	9	65	3.90	4.28	29.0%	16.1%	—	K 21.6% · BB 18.9% · FIP 5.70
2024	23	A+ATL	38	0	52	2.60	2.81	26.4%	11.7%	—	K 20.3% · BB 13.4% · FIP 3.80
2026	25	MIX2 levels	40	0	50	5.44	4.97	16.3%	9.3%	—	K 13.3% · BB 9.3% · FIP 5.47
2027PROJ	26	MLBOAK	57	0	60	5.21	5.21	15.9%	10.7%	-0.4
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBOAK	21	0	22	5.15	5.16	16.6%	10.6%	-0.2
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBOAK	32	0	34	5.14	5.18	17.0%	10.7%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff60Command40FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsD.J. Carrasco (age 26) · Stephen Johnson (age 25) · Jorge Reyes (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.21

FIP5.21

K%15.9%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%5.2%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CMD3040

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	GCL Braves	6	6	15	63	12	4	0	100%	2.6	13.0%	7.9%	5.0%	0.0%	3.52	3.01	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	GCL Braves	6	6	15	63	12	4	0	100%	2.6	19.0%	6.3%	12.7%	0.0%	3.52	2.32	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	13	51	236	69	32	9	87%	3.4	21.2%	16.1%	5.0%	4.3%	5.61	5.69	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	13	51	236	69	32	9	87%	3.4	29.2%	13.6%	15.7%	3.8%	5.61	4.56	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	9	65	286	83	46	8	32%	2.3	21.6%	18.9%	2.7%	3.7%	3.90	5.70	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	9	65	286	83	46	8	32%	2.3	29.0%	16.1%	12.9%	2.8%	3.90	4.28	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	38	0	52	231	61	27	2	0%	1.4	20.3%	13.4%	6.9%	1.3%	2.60	3.80	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	38	0	52	231	61	27	2	0%	1.4	20.3%	13.4%	6.9%	1.3%	2.60	3.80	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Rome Emperors	38	0	52	231	61	27	2	0%	1.4	26.4%	11.7%	14.7%	0.9%	2.60	2.81	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	50	227	37	21	8	0%	1.2	13.3%	9.3%	4.0%	4.2%	5.44	5.47	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	50	227	37	21	8	0%	1.2	13.3%	9.3%	4.0%	4.2%	5.44	5.47	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	50	227	37	21	8	0%	1.2	16.3%	9.3%	7.0%	3.5%	5.44	4.97	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	OAK	57	0	60	253	40	27	8	0%	1.1	15.9%	10.7%	5.2%	3.1%	5.21	5.21	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	OAK	56	0	59	247	41	26	8	0%	1.0	16.6%	10.6%	6.0%	3.2%	5.15	5.16	-0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	OAK	54	0	57	240	41	26	8	0%	1.1	17.0%	10.7%	6.3%	3.3%	5.14	5.18	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	OAK	21	0	22	93	15	10	3	0%	1.0	16.6%	10.6%	6.0%	3.2%	5.15	5.16	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	OAK	32	0	34	144	24	15	5	0%	1.1	17.0%	10.7%	6.3%	3.3%	5.14	5.18	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	0	56	236	40	25	8	0%	1.1	16.9%	10.7%	6.2%	3.2%	5.14	4.79	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	143	90	29	0%	1.1	16.9%	10.7%	6.2%	3.2%	5.14	4.79	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		127	28	233	1043	197	149	33	22%	1.8	18.9%	14.3%	4.6%	3.2%	4.29	5.07	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		109	24	200	895	169	128	29	22%	1.8	18.9%	14.3%	4.6%	3.2%	4.29	5.07	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jared Johnson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.21	15.9%	10.7%	3.1%	—	5.17	16.8%	6.2%	115	-0.04	—	—	—
D.J. Carrasco R 2003 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	16.1%	10.1%	2.2%	.291	4.66	10.5%	1.4%	150	+0.39	3.23	490	87
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	84
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	84
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	84
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	84
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	84
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	84
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	83
Donovan Hand R 2013 · 4.72 FIP	27	SW	4.72	12.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.279	4.30	11.1%	6.8%	97	-0.42	4.30	305	83
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	83
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	83
Raul Fernandez R 2016 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	13.6%	9.3%	2.2%	.270	5.54	20.4%	6.2%	38	+1.19	4.03	165	83
Confesor Lara R 2016 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	16.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	111	83
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	83
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	83
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	82
Cesar Gomez R 2024 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	15.7%	9.1%	2.9%	.338	5.17	14.1%	5.8%	63	+0.67	4.11	345	82
Tyler Mizenko R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	26	SU	5.15	13.3%	10.2%	3.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	104	82
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	82
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	16.5%	10.7%	1.23	5.17
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*