Christian Encarnacion-Strand

1B Norfolk Tides

Age 27 R/R 6'1" / 224 lbs AAA HR +9% Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2028

Overview

AAA40-MANArb-2FA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	24	MLBCIN	123	.190/.223/.293	2	0	39	-1.0
2025	25	MLBCIN	137	.208/.237/.377	6	0	62	-1.4
2026	26	MLBBAL	213	.277/.329/.513	11	1	124	0.2
2027PROJ45% MLB	27	MLBBAL	158	.235/.280/.431	7	1	92	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	28	MLBBAL	212	.233/.278/.426	9	1	90	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -2.2 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.000First FA2029

2027Arb-2$0.4M2028Arb-3$0.7M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Chase%84

Whiff%82

Bat Spd72

Barrel%69

xwOBA49

Avg EV43

Form.245/.291/.454 ▲▲ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .230/.274/.419

CompsErnesto Mejia (age 27) · Luken Baker (age 27) · Chris Shaw (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 9192vR 93

AVG/OBP/SLG.235 / .280 / .431

PA158

HR7

K%28

BB%4

BABIP288

ISO203

MLB%45%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT40

Whiff%

827.7%

xAVG

280.234

POWER50

Barrel%

6911.1

Avg EV

4388.6

Bat Spd

7273.6

EYE25

Chase%

8425.0%

SPEED50

Sprint

3626.8

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%26%▲▲25% over 109 PA (60d) · proj 28%

BB%5%·6% over 109 PA (60d) · proj 5%

ISO.209▲.242 over 99 AB (60d) · proj .189

HR/BB6.5%·6.8% over 73 BBE (60d) · proj 6.2%

BABIP.292▲.397 over 68 BIP (60d) · proj .283

SLASH.245/.291/.454▲▲proj .230/.274/.419

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 260 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

189

—

wRC+

-29

▶▶R

wOBA

125

292

▶▶R

ISO

015

187

▶▶R

BABIP

182

254

▶▶R

33.8%

22.7%

▶▶R

BB%

2.8%

2.6%

◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-2	$0.4M	+0.0	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-3	$0.7M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.6M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	21	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	92	87	34	2	2	4	5	26	0	2	0	391	424	598	1.022	207	526	28	5	447	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	208	190	60	8	2	12	10	52	6	1	1	316	369	568	937	253	375	25	5	405	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	330	294	87	23	3	20	30	85	5	7	1	296	371	599	969	303	353	26	9	417	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	241	222	60	7	0	13	14	69	5	2	0	270	328	477	805	207	336	29	6	356	120	+6	+0	-2	-10	+5	-0.0
2023	23	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	316	278	92	21	2	20	33	69	3	2	0	331	408	637	1.044	306	377	22	10	447	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	123	116	22	6	0	2	4	35	1	0	0	190	223	293	516	103	247	28	3	228	39	-9	+0	-0	-3	+3	-1.0
2024	24	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	32	26	10	2	0	0	4	9	1	1	0	385	484	462	945	77	556	28	12	417	168	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	137	130	27	4	0	6	3	32	2	0	2	208	237	377	614	169	223	23	2	267	62	-6	-1	-3	-7	+3	-1.4
2025	25	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	252	229	56	20	2	11	17	62	5	0	0	245	311	493	804	249	287	25	7	350	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	213	195	54	13	0	11	11	55	4	1	1	277	329	513	841	236	328	26	5	363	124	+6	-0	+0	-9	+5	0.2
2026	26	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	297	274	73	15	2	19	14	91	3	2	0	266	309	544	853	277	320	31	5	362	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	714	663	163	30	0	32	32	191	12	3	3	246	293	436	729	190	294	27	4	319	102	+2	-1	-5	-29	+15	-1.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	92	89	26	2	2	3	3	36	0	2	0	292	315	461	776	169	456	39	3	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	208	194	53	7	2	10	6	63	6	1	1	273	316	485	800	211	335	30	3	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	330	303	72	19	2	16	21	109	5	7	1	238	298	472	770	234	308	33	6	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	241	222	59	7	0	12	14	69	5	2	0	266	324	459	783	194	336	29	6	346	120	+6	+0	-2	-10	+5	-0.0
2023	23	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	316	288	82	19	2	14	23	82	3	2	0	285	344	510	854	226	348	26	7	364	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	123	116	22	6	0	2	4	35	1	0	0	190	223	293	516	103	247	28	3	226	39	-9	+0	-0	-3	+3	-1.0
2025	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	137	130	27	4	0	6	3	32	2	0	2	208	237	377	614	169	223	23	2	260	62	-6	-1	-3	-7	+3	-1.4
2025	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	252	234	44	15	2	8	12	76	5	0	0	188	243	372	615	184	240	30	5	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	213	196	54	13	0	11	10	55	4	1	1	276	324	510	834	235	328	26	5	352	124	+6	-0	+0	-9	+5	0.2
2026	26	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	297	278	59	12	2	13	10	109	3	2	0	212	247	410	657	198	273	37	3	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	92	89	26	2	2	3	3	36	0	2	0	292	315	461	776	169	460	39	3	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	92	87	34	2	2	4	5	26	0	2	0	391	424	598	1.022	207	526	28	5	447	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	538	497	123	26	4	25	27	171	11	8	2	247	301	467	768	219	322	32	5	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	538	484	147	31	5	32	40	137	11	8	2	304	370	587	957	283	362	25	7	413	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	557	510	141	26	2	26	37	151	8	4	0	276	335	488	823	212	343	27	7	356	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	557	500	152	28	2	33	47	138	8	4	0	304	373	566	939	262	360	25	8	408	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	155	145	28	8	0	2	5	44	2	1	0	193	230	290	520	97	255	28	3	226	39	-11	+0	-0	-3	+3	-1.1
2024	24	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	155	142	32	8	0	2	8	44	2	1	0	225	276	324	600	99	303	28	5	267	39	-11	+0	-0	-3	+3	-1.1
2025	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	389	364	72	20	2	14	15	108	7	0	2	198	244	379	623	181	237	28	4	265	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	389	359	83	24	2	17	20	94	7	0	2	231	285	451	736	220	263	24	5	321	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	510	474	111	24	2	23	20	164	7	3	1	234	275	439	714	205	299	32	4	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	510	469	127	28	2	30	25	146	7	3	1	271	317	531	848	260	323	29	5	362	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	92	89	26	2	2	3	3	36	0	2	0	292	315	461	776	169	456	39	3	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	538	495	123	26	4	25	27	171	11	8	2	248	301	469	770	220	318	32	5	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	557	507	141	26	2	26	37	151	8	4	0	278	335	491	826	213	343	27	7	356	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	155	147	28	8	0	2	5	44	2	1	0	190	230	286	516	95	247	28	3	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	389	364	72	20	2	14	15	108	7	0	2	198	244	379	623	181	234	28	4	265	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	510	478	111	24	2	23	20	164	7	3	1	232	275	435	711	203	296	32	4	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	155	147	28	8	0	2	5	44	2	1	0	190	230	286	516	95	247	28	3	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	389	364	72	20	2	14	15	108	7	0	2	198	244	379	623	181	234	28	4	265	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	510	478	111	24	2	23	20	164	7	3	1	232	275	435	711	203	296	32	4	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	27	MLB MLE	BAL	45%	431	403	94	20	2	18	19	122	6	3	1	231	276	419	695	189	283	28	4	304	92	-4	+0	+0	-8	+9	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	27	MLB CTX	BAL	45%	158	148	35	7	1	7	7	45	2	1	0	235	280	431	711	196	288	28	4	311	92	-1	+0	+0	-3	+3	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	BAL	49%	430	402	91	19	2	17	19	123	6	2	1	229	274	414	688	186	281	29	4	301	90	-5	+0	-0	-8	+9	-0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	BAL	49%	212	197	47	10	1	9	10	61	3	1	0	233	278	426	704	193	286	29	5	308	90	-3	+0	-0	-4	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	926	860	210	40	1	41	42	252	15	4	3	244	291	436	727	192	294	27	5	316	96	-1	-0	-5	-33	+20	-1.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	604	148	28	1	29	29	177	11	3	2	245	292	439	731	194	295	27	4	316	96	-1	-0	-3	-23	+14	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		—	3021	2807	667	141	15	124	142	896	46	22	7	238	285	431	717	193	300	30	5	310	96	-7	-1	-5	-43	+32	-2.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	604	143	30	3	27	31	193	10	5	2	237	286	430	716	194	298	30	5	310	96	-3	-0	-2	-19	+14	-1.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tom Grieve'70-'79 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,093 PA	3.2	2,093	65	7	250*	304*	448*	-32	-9	2.1	2.8
/162	664	21	2	-10.0	-2.8	0.7	pk7: 4
#2John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#3Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#4Andy Kosco'65-'74 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,102 PA	3.2	2,102	73	5	243*	278*	440*	-22	-12	0.1	0.8
/162	664	23	2	-7.1	-3.6	0.0	pk7: 2
#5Willie Smith'63-'71 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,794 PA	2.7	1,794	46	20	253*	300*	430*	-22	-16	-0.4	0.8
/162	664	17	7	-8.1	-5.8	-0.1	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	1.6	1,084	47	5	241	284	430	-19	-12	0.7	0.8
/162	664	29	3	-11.9	-7.1	0.5	pk7: 1
#6Chad Pinderlast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA	2.6	1,740	62	5	242	294	417	-17	-20	0.6	0.6
/162	664	24	2	-6.5	-7.6	0.2	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Christian Encarnacion-Strand (OGILVIE)	27	40	50	50	25	229/274/416	187	283	14	2	28%	5%	92	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ernesto Mejia 2013 · AAA	27	46→47	54→60	45	37	239/285/417	178	318	22	7	32%	5%	95	+1.0	228/280/417	189	304	24	8	32%	6%	94	+0.9	198/254/395	197	258	26	7	34%	6%	78	-0.3
✕Luken Baker 2024 · MLB	27	41→47	57→60	45→30	46	225/292/415	190	274	26	2	28%	8%	98	+1.2	203/282/380	177	256	23	2	29%	10%	86	+0.3	178/263/342	163	225	21	1	30%	10%	69	-0.6
✕Chris Shaw 2021 · MLB	27	43→46	54→55	45→30	38	226/278/403	177	303	23	4	33%	6%	90	+0.6	192/268/328	136	324	16	7	42%	9%	69	-0.9	127/222/272	145	208	21	2	48%	10%	37	-1.2
✕Bobby Dalbec 2023 · MLB	28	42	59→60	53→50	41	227/291/432	205	299	28	6	34%	7%	101	+1.4	204/276/370	166	314	22	12	40%	8%	82	-0.0	189/264/347	158	301	21	13	42%	8%	69	-0.8
✕Peter O'Brien 2017 · MLB	27	35→45	56→65	45→30	32	199/237/384	185	274	25	3	37%	4%	70	-0.8	176/234/339	163	266	22	3	41%	7%	59	-1.7	154/223/313	158	229	23	1	43%	8%	47	-1.7
✕Matt Davidson 2018 · MLB	27	39→45	55→60	42→30	37	214/267/394	181	292	25	2	36%	6%	84	+0.1	218/287/408	190	297	26	2	34%	7%	95	+0.9	214/286/408	195	283	27	0	34%	7%	93	+0.6
✕Casper Wells 2012 · MLB	27	44	57→60	44→50	42	231/296/435	204	293	24	8	30%	7%	104	+1.6	216/288/368	152	280	16	7	27%	8%	85	+0.2	204/285/349	145	259	14	5	26%	9%	80	-0.1
✕Blaine Crim 2023 · AAA	26	47→49	54→55	47→45	43	246/298/418	172	282	24	4	23%	6%	101	+1.4	239/304/394	155	285	18	4	22%	7%	97	+1.1	231/301/384	153	276	17	4	22%	8%	92	+0.7
✕Evan White 2022 · MLB	26	41→51	52→55	43→40	41	215/273/375	160	287	21	5	32%	7%	82	-0.0	215/282/375	160	270	19	7	27%	8%	84	+0.2	169/244/357	189	183	25	0	25%	8%	63	-0.2
✕David Villar 2024 · MLB	27	42→44	56→60	46→40	47	223/308/415	192	286	25	5	30%	9%	104	+1.6	219/296/353	134	293	15	5	29%	9%	84	+0.2	211/289/324	113	284	13	2	29%	9%	74	-0.4
✕Michael Restovich 2007 · MLB	28	45→48	54→55	47→30	43	234/294/415	181	300	22	4	29%	7%	99	+1.2	232/282/405	173	304	21	4	30%	6%	92	+0.7	227/275/385	158	294	18	2	29%	6%	82	-0.0
✕Jason Dubois 2007 · MLB	28	47→45	54→60	45→40	39	240/289/421	181	317	23	5	31%	6%	98	+1.2	224/278/392	168	291	22	4	30%	6%	87	+0.4	216/283/417	200	270	29	3	31%	6%	92	+0.5
●Jeff Bailey 2006 · AAA	27	43→48	52→55	49→45	44	225/298/391	166	285	21	9	28%	7%	95	+0.9	227/306/392	165	279	20	6	25%	8%	98	+1.2	226/309/396	170	272	21	5	24%	9%	97	+1.0
✕Jabari Blash 2016 · AAA	27	39→41	58→60	48→50	44	214/293/415	202	277	26	9	32%	8%	99	+1.2	210/311/399	189	307	24	7	36%	11%	101	+1.4	197/311/390	192	295	25	6	38%	12%	98	+0.8
✕Tyler Colvin 2013 · MLB	27	45→53	54→60	51→45	39	235/273/425	191	289	21	7	27%	5%	93	+0.8	214/259/352	138	293	13	7	30%	5%	70	-0.9	194/237/303	109	277	9	5	32%	5%	49	-1.3
✕Jon Knott 2007 · MLB	28	40	55	44→40	45	218/281/411	193	254	23	4	25%	7%	93	+0.8	218/284/387	169	268	20	5	26%	8%	88	+0.5	207/277/367	160	254	19	3	26%	8%	78	-0.2
✕Mike Hessman 2005 · MLB	27	41→35	53→65	48→45	41	217/274/387	169	275	21	7	29%	6%	84	+0.2	183/254/369	186	237	27	6	35%	7%	74	-0.6	193/270/410	218	252	30	4	36%	8%	88	+0.4
●Shelley Duncan 2007 · AAA	27	38→44	53→60	45	42	209/263/380	171	247	22	4	26%	6%	79	-0.2	225/289/421	196	259	27	5	25%	8%	98	+1.2	221/292/429	208	244	29	4	24%	8%	100	+1.0
✕Tommy Joseph 2018 · MLB	27	46→48	57→60	43→30	44	245/292/438	193	276	25	3	22%	6%	103	+1.6	236/290/408	172	290	22	4	26%	6%	95	+1.0	226/283/412	186	268	26	0	26%	5%	92	+0.5
✕Hunter Owen 2021 · AAA	27	42→39	52→55	43→40	34	215/277/379	164	309	21	5	36%	5%	84	+0.2	200/258/332	132	313	16	6	39%	6%	66	-1.1	168/219/294	126	260	19	3	42%	5%	41	-1.8

Christian Encarnacion-Strand

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps