Cortland LawsonSS
Harrisburg Senators
Age 26
R/R
6'2" / 200 lbs
AA
HR -9%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
wRC+†46
AVG/OBP/SLG.192 / .250 / .256
PA250
HR2
K%32
BB%6
MLB%2%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
40→40
PWR
25→25
SPD
45→45
EYE
41↗45
trajectory · 10 yrs
-0.5peak
2027
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | — | — | — |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | — | — | — |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $-9M | $-29M | -$21M | ||
Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$21M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$21M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 47 | 44 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | .091 | .149 | .159 | .308 | .068 | .214 | 62 | 6 | .155 | -23 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 23 | A | 2 teams | 303 | 273 | 53 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 132 | 9 | 10 | 2 | .194 | .267 | .245 | .512 | .051 | .368 | 44 | 6 | .227 | 32 | -23 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +9 | -1.0 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 391 | 360 | 70 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 112 | 4 | 10 | 5 | .194 | .245 | .236 | .481 | .042 | .278 | 29 | 5 | .216 | 24 | -34 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +11 | -1.9 |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | 2 teams | 364 | 335 | 61 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 121 | 2 | 6 | 4 | .182 | .237 | .236 | .473 | .054 | .271 | 33 | 6 | .212 | 21 | -33 | -0 | +0 | +4 | +10 | -1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 37 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .172 | .333 | .276 | .609 | .103 | .200 | 24 | 14 | .280 | 72 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | 0.0 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | WSH | 213 | 193 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 67 | 3 | 3 | 1 | .197 | .265 | .269 | .535 | .073 | .279 | 31 | 7 | .239 | 41 | -14 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +6 | -0.6 |
| TOT | 26 | MLB | WSH | 250 | 222 | 43 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 76 | 5 | 3 | 1 | .194 | .275 | .270 | .546 | .077 | .276 | 30 | 8 | .245 | 46 | -15 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +7 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB 11% | WSH | 269 | 244 | 48 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 78 | 3 | 4 | 2 | .197 | .266 | .275 | .541 | .078 | .274 | 29 | 7 | .250 | 50 | -15 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +8 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB 22% | WSH | 319 | 287 | 58 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 91 | 4 | 4 | 2 | .202 | .275 | .286 | .561 | .084 | .275 | 29 | 8 | .255 | 53 | -17 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +9 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB 34% | WSH | 344 | 310 | 62 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 98 | 4 | 4 | 2 | .200 | .273 | .281 | .553 | .081 | .275 | 28 | 8 | .256 | 54 | -18 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +10 | -0.6 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB 44% | WSH | 359 | 324 | 65 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 103 | 4 | 4 | 2 | .201 | .272 | .287 | .560 | .086 | .274 | 29 | 8 | .255 | 53 | -19 | +0 | -2 | +4 | +10 | -0.7 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB 53% | WSH | 357 | 322 | 63 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 104 | 4 | 3 | 2 | .196 | .268 | .273 | .542 | .078 | .272 | 29 | 8 | .251 | 50 | -20 | -0 | -3 | +4 | +10 | -0.9 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB 71% | WSH | 347 | 313 | 60 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 103 | 4 | 2 | 2 | .192 | .265 | .268 | .533 | .077 | .271 | 30 | 8 | .246 | 47 | -21 | -0 | -4 | +4 | +10 | -1.1 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB 88% | WSH | 322 | 290 | 55 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 98 | 4 | 2 | 2 | .190 | .263 | .259 | .522 | .069 | .269 | 30 | 8 | .241 | 43 | -21 | -0 | -4 | +3 | +9 | -1.3 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 281 | 254 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 88 | 3 | 2 | 3 | .185 | .258 | .248 | .506 | .063 | .268 | 31 | 8 | .235 | 38 | -20 | -1 | -5 | +3 | +8 | -1.5 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3916 | 3549 | 684 | 114 | 13 | 35 | 280 | 1224 | 48 | 56 | 29 | .193 | .261 | .262 | .523 | .069 | .280 | 31 | 7 | .239 | 41 | -261 | -0 | -20 | +42 | +111 | -13.0 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 589 | 114 | 19 | 2 | 6 | 46 | 203 | 8 | 9 | 5 | .194 | .261 | .263 | .524 | .070 | .281 | 31 | 7 | .239 | 41 | -43 | -0 | -3 | +7 | +18 | -2.2 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 47 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 2 | 0 | .167 | .255 | .310 | .565 | .143 | .250 | 43 | 11 | .259 | 56 | -2 | +0 | — | — | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 81 | 77 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .247 | .275 | .312 | .587 | .065 | .352 | 30 | 2 | .261 | 58 | -4 | +0 | — | — | +2 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 222 | 183 | 51 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 29 | 69 | 8 | 10 | 2 | .279 | .400 | .366 | .766 | .087 | .440 | 31 | 13 | .352 | 128 | +7 | +1 | — | — | +6 | 1.5 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 391 | 350 | 76 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 30 | 88 | 4 | 10 | 5 | .217 | .286 | .266 | .552 | .049 | .286 | 23 | 8 | .253 | 52 | -21 | +0 | — | — | +11 | -1.0 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 114 | 101 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 2 | 1 | 2 | .208 | .273 | .257 | .530 | .050 | .278 | 26 | 6 | .239 | 41 | -8 | -1 | — | — | +3 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 250 | 222 | 53 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 60 | 0 | 5 | 2 | .239 | .321 | .311 | .632 | .072 | .317 | 24 | 11 | .292 | 81 | -5 | +0 | — | — | +7 | 0.2 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Cortland Lawson (OGILVIE) | 26 | 40 | 25 | 45 | 45 | .192/.250/.256 | .064 | .284 | 2 | 4 | 32% | 6% | 37 | -1.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Yadiel Rivera 2019 · MLB |
27 | 38→48 | 38→40 | 45→50 | 38 | .187/.238/.257 | .071 | .270 | 6 | 7 | 32% | 6% | 32 | -3.0 | .216/.254/.318 | .102 | .312 | 12 | 16 | 33% | 5% | 55 | -1.4 | .224/.248/.329 | .106 | .322 | 14 | 23 | 35% | 3% | 50 | -1.1 |
|
✕Lyle Lin 2023 · AA |
26 | 40 | 36→30 | 43→40 | 40 | .190/.249/.250 | .060 | .273 | 3 | 4 | 30% | 6% | 35 | -2.8 | .207/.271/.277 | .070 | .284 | 5 | 5 | 27% | 6% | 53 | -1.5 | .165/.239/.182 | .017 | .205 | 0 | 4 | 18% | 6% | 14 | -0.8 |
|
✕Connor Justus 2021 · AA |
26 | 36→37 | 38→40 | 42→45 | 43 | .176/.254/.250 | .074 | .253 | 6 | 8 | 31% | 8% | 39 | -2.5 | .189/.253/.265 | .076 | .287 | 5 | 7 | 34% | 7% | 41 | -2.3 | .166/.232/.219 | .053 | .259 | 3 | 3 | 35% | 6% | 18 | -2.1 |
|
✕Tanner Vavra 2015 · A |
26 | 47 | 35→30 | 46→45 | 42 | .216/.281/.276 | .060 | .307 | 3 | 7 | 29% | 6% | 56 | -1.3 | .220/.286/.282 | .062 | .306 | 3 | 8 | 27% | 6% | 59 | -1.1 | .219/.291/.258 | .039 | .306 | 0 | 7 | 26% | 5% | 52 | -0.7 |
|
✕Josh Bissonette 2023 · AAA |
26 | 43 | 36→30 | 44→30 | 45 | .203/.262/.271 | .068 | .271 | 4 | 6 | 26% | 7% | 46 | -2.0 | .208/.269/.285 | .077 | .276 | 5 | 6 | 25% | 8% | 53 | -1.5 | .193/.258/.241 | .048 | .253 | 3 | 0 | 23% | 8% | 33 | -0.9 |
|
✕Mitch Roman 2021 · AA |
26 | 45→52 | 36→30 | 46→50 | 37 | .207/.256/.266 | .060 | .324 | 4 | 12 | 36% | 6% | 42 | -2.3 | .193/.253/.260 | .067 | .324 | 4 | 18 | 39% | 7% | 40 | -2.4 | .162/.227/.202 | .040 | .288 | 2 | 27 | 41% | 7% | 11 | -1.9 |
|
✕J.J. Franco 2018 · A |
26 | 44 | 35→30 | 41→45 | 47 | .207/.267/.264 | .057 | .275 | 2 | 6 | 24% | 8% | 46 | -2.0 | .213/.282/.278 | .065 | .302 | 3 | 7 | 28% | 8% | 56 | -1.3 | .194/.280/.228 | .034 | .292 | 0 | 2 | 30% | 10% | 43 | -0.6 |
|
✕Tim Smalling 2014 · AA |
26 | 45→43 | 38→40 | 43→45 | 44 | .214/.267/.293 | .079 | .283 | 5 | 6 | 25% | 6% | 53 | -1.5 | .211/.259/.290 | .079 | .271 | 6 | 8 | 23% | 5% | 50 | -1.8 | .205/.250/.274 | .069 | .256 | 6 | 8 | 21% | 5% | 38 | -1.3 |
|
✕Stephen McGee 2017 · AAA |
26 | 41 | 38→40 | 44→30 | 46 | .195/.272/.270 | .075 | .274 | 5 | 4 | 29% | 8% | 51 | -1.7 | .202/.288/.309 | .107 | .309 | 10 | 4 | 34% | 10% | 69 | -0.4 | .184/.286/.291 | .107 | .287 | 11 | 0 | 36% | 12% | 60 | -0.4 |
|
✕Evan Mendoza 2022 · AAA |
26 | 45→50 | 35→30 | 49→50 | 40 | .213/.258/.270 | .057 | .297 | 3 | 15 | 28% | 5% | 43 | -2.2 | .211/.268/.281 | .070 | .266 | 6 | 18 | 22% | 7% | 51 | -1.7 | .199/.264/.257 | .058 | .238 | 6 | 21 | 18% | 8% | 41 | -1.1 |
|
✕Ryan Dent 2015 · AAA |
26 | 44→42 | 39→40 | 47→50 | 42 | .210/.265/.292 | .083 | .286 | 6 | 13 | 28% | 6% | 53 | -1.5 | .207/.260/.301 | .094 | .294 | 7 | 9 | 30% | 6% | 53 | -1.5 | .210/.253/.303 | .094 | .300 | 8 | 3 | 32% | 4% | 49 | -1.0 |
|
✕Erick Castillo 2019 · AA |
26 | 41 | 38→30 | 46→30 | 41 | .200/.246/.272 | .072 | .255 | 6 | 4 | 24% | 5% | 40 | -2.4 | .207/.261/.281 | .074 | .265 | 6 | 5 | 23% | 5% | 48 | -1.9 | .198/.267/.229 | .030 | .253 | 2 | 0 | 21% | 5% | 36 | -0.7 |
|
✕Yohannis Perez 2009 · AA |
26 | 46→47 | 35→30 | 43→40 | 39 | .215/.258/.277 | .062 | .290 | 3 | 6 | 26% | 4% | 45 | -2.1 | .225/.268/.307 | .082 | .284 | 6 | 5 | 22% | 5% | 57 | -1.2 | .238/.277/.322 | .084 | .283 | 6 | 2 | 18% | 4% | 63 | -0.4 |
|
✕Chris Roller 2023 · AA |
26 | 37 | 39→45 | 50→55 | 40 | .183/.248/.270 | .087 | .268 | 6 | 14 | 32% | 6% | 40 | -2.4 | .194/.274/.324 | .130 | .304 | 14 | 16 | 38% | 9% | 67 | -0.5 | .179/.266/.318 | .140 | .290 | 17 | 19 | 41% | 9% | 60 | -0.7 |
|
✕Rylan Sandoval 2014 · AAA |
26 | 43 | 41→40 | 45 | 37 | .207/.258/.303 | .096 | .294 | 8 | 7 | 32% | 5% | 53 | -1.5 | .222/.272/.310 | .088 | .326 | 7 | 9 | 32% | 6% | 60 | -1.0 | .230/.270/.280 | .050 | .364 | 4 | 4 | 36% | 5% | 46 | -0.4 |
|
✕Angelo Castellano 2021 · AA |
26 | 38→42 | 39→45 | 46→50 | 41 | .189/.242/.273 | .083 | .253 | 7 | 12 | 28% | 6% | 38 | -2.6 | .200/.261/.303 | .103 | .257 | 11 | 12 | 26% | 7% | 55 | -1.4 | .204/.274/.324 | .120 | .246 | 14 | 14 | 23% | 8% | 62 | -0.4 |
|
✕Errol Robinson 2022 · AAA |
27 | 42→48 | 38→40 | 46→55 | 43 | .199/.264/.276 | .077 | .291 | 6 | 13 | 32% | 8% | 49 | -1.8 | .206/.279/.277 | .071 | .327 | 5 | 20 | 35% | 9% | 55 | -1.4 | .201/.275/.251 | .051 | .314 | 3 | 26 | 34% | 9% | 44 | -0.7 |
|
✕Pete Kozma 2014 · MLB |
26 | 43→46 | 39→40 | 46→50 | 46 | .207/.259/.292 | .085 | .255 | 6 | 6 | 21% | 7% | 50 | -1.8 | .207/.265/.288 | .081 | .253 | 6 | 10 | 20% | 7% | 52 | -1.6 | .191/.240/.281 | .091 | .237 | 6 | 6 | 22% | 5% | 37 | -1.7 |
|
✕Cody Bohanek 2021 · AAA |
26 | 38→36 | 38→40 | 45→50 | 39 | .179/.267/.254 | .075 | .295 | 6 | 11 | 38% | 7% | 46 | -2.0 | .179/.276/.286 | .107 | .293 | 9 | 15 | 39% | 8% | 59 | -1.1 | .155/.261/.260 | .105 | .255 | 9 | 18 | 39% | 9% | 45 | -1.1 |
|
✕Roberto Baldoquin 2019 · AA |
25 | 46 | 38→30 | 45 | 39 | .219/.266/.296 | .077 | .305 | 5 | 8 | 29% | 5% | 53 | -1.5 | .206/.254/.283 | .077 | .295 | 5 | 7 | 30% | 5% | 46 | -2.0 | .184/.247/.228 | .044 | .258 | 2 | 3 | 27% | 5% | 26 | -1.5 |