Cortland Lawson

SS Harrisburg Senators
Age 27 R/R 6'2" / 200 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036
MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202424AAWSH391.217/.286/.26601036—.200/.250/.242
202525AA/A+WSH364.229/.306/.2943628—.185/.237/.238
202626AAA/AAWSH379.250/.349/.3867364—.210/.284/.319
2027PROJMLE27MLBWSH3.189/.253/.2630047-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB28MLBWSH60.190/.254/.2661148-0.2
Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA
BB%62
Chase%62
wRC+51
wOBA45
ISO34
Whiff%32
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%
CompsLyle Lin (age 27) · Yadiel Rivera (age 27) · Pat Cantwell (age 27)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†47
AVG/OBP/SLG.189 / .253 / .263
PA3
HR0
K%33
BB%7
BABIP287
ISO56
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -9.9 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-10BATRUN: +0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +1.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +3.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: -0.40-0.4WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
-0.4-0.22728
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 25
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT40
scouting grade only
POWER25
scouting grade only
EYE45
scouting grade only
SPEED45
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202222 AFredericksburg Nationals — 4742 7002 5200 20 167255310565 143250 4311 259 -8 — — — — — —
202323 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks — 8177 19310 2241 00 247275312587 65352 302 261 21 — — — — — —
202323 AFredericksburg Nationals — 222183 51840 29698 102 279400366766 87440 3113 352 53 — — — — — —
202424 AAHarrisburg Senators — 391350 761510 30884 105 217286266552 49286 238 253 36 — — — — — —
202525 AAHarrisburg Senators — 114101 21201 7302 12 208273257530 50278 266 239 33 — — — — — —
202525 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks — 250222 531002 27600 52 239321311632 72317 2411 292 26 — — — — — —
202626 AAARochester Red Wings — 1916 5111 360 10 3124216881.109 375444 3216 468 135 — — — — — —
202626 AAHarrisburg Senators — 360308 761816 421084 21 247345370715 123355 3012 321 60 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202222 A MLEFredericksburg Nationals — 4743 4001 4280 20 93170163333 70227 609 157 -8 — — — — — —
202323 A+ MLEWilmington Blue Rocks — 8178 15210 1321 00 192212244456 51312 401 199 21 — — — — — —
202323 A MLEFredericksburg Nationals — 222194 38530 18968 102 196291253543 57369 438 247 53 — — — — — —
202424 AA MLEHarrisburg Senators — 391360 721310 201064 105 200250242492 42274 275 222 36 — — — — — —
202525 AA MLEHarrisburg Senators — 114103 21201 5372 12 204255252507 49273 324 217 33 — — — — — —
202525 A+ MLEWilmington Blue Rocks — 250233 41702 16820 52 176229232461 56257 336 206 26 — — — — — —
202626 AAA MLERochester Red Wings — 1917 5111 270 10 2943686471.015 353401 3711 367 135 — — — — — —
202626 AA MLEHarrisburg Senators — 360321 661415 291324 21 206280302582 97318 378 257 60 — — — — — —
202222 A MLEFredericksburg Nationals — 4743 4001 4280 20 93170163333 70214 609 157 -8 — — — — — —
202222 A RAWFredericksburg Nationals — 4742 7002 5200 20 167255310565 143250 4311 259 -8 — — — — — —
202323 A MLE2 teams — 303272 54840 191289 102 199273257531 59367 426 234 45 — — — — — —
202323 A RAW2 teams — 303260 701150 31939 102 269367350717 81412 3110 328 45 — — — — — —
202424 AA MLEHarrisburg Senators — 391360 721310 201064 105 200250242492 42279 275 222 36 — — — — — —
202424 AA RAWHarrisburg Senators — 391350 761510 30884 105 217286266552 49286 238 253 36 — — — — — —
202525 A+ MLE2 teams — 364336 60902 211182 64 179231223454 45265 326 209 28 — — — — — —
202525 A+ RAW2 teams — 364323 741203 34902 64 229306294601 65305 259 275 28 — — — — — —
202626 AA MLE2 teams — 379338 701525 311394 31 207282308589 101330 378 263 64 — — — — — —
202626 AA RAW2 teams — 379324 811927 451144 31 250349386734 136359 3012 328 64 — — — — — —
202222 A MLEFredericksburg Nationals — 4743 4001 4280 20 93170163333 70227 609 157 -8 — — — — — —
202323 A MLE2 teams — 303272 54840 191289 102 199273257531 59354 426 234 45 — — — — — —
202424 AA MLEHarrisburg Senators — 391364 721310 201064 105 198250239489 41274 275 222 36 — — — — — —
202525 A+ MLE2 teams — 364338 60902 211182 64 178231222453 44262 326 209 28 — — — — — —
202626 AA MLE2 teams — 379341 701525 311394 31 205282305586 100322 378 263 64 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202424 AA MLEHarrisburg Senators — 391364 721310 201064 105 198250239489 41274 275 222 36 — — — — — —
202525 A+ MLE2 teams — 364338 60902 211182 64 178231222453 44262 326 209 28 — — — — — —
202626 AA MLE2 teams — 379341 701525 311394 31 205282305586 100322 378 263 64 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202727 MLB MLEWSH 2% 380347 651313 271303 52 189253264516 74287 347 237 47 -24 +0 +0 +4 +8 -0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202727 MLB CTXWSH 2% 33 0000 010 00 189253263516 74287 330 237 47 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202828 MLB MLEWSH 27% 222202 39812 16752 21 190254266521 76287 347 239 48 -14 +0 -1 +2 +5 -0.7
202828 MLB CTXWSH 27% 6056 11201 4200 10 190254266520 75287 337 239 48 -4 +0 -0 +1 +1 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 6056 11201 4200 10 196250286536 89286 337 239 43 -4 +0 -0 +1 +1 -0.2
/ 162G— A+C — 650607 12022011 432170 110 198251288539 91288 337 239 43 -40 +2 -2 +7 +14 -2.0
Career— MLE — 18611693 32558811 12264722 3514 192255255510 63299 357 231 43 -24 +0 -1 +4 +8 -1.2
/ 162G— MLE — 650591 1142034 432268 125 193257257514 64301 357 231 43 -41 +0 -1 +7 +14 -2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAHarrisburg Senators · 360 PAwOBA .316 → .257 (−59)K% 30.0% → 36.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA30.00%÷1.000×1.220——36.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.67%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9888.07%
HBP% /PA1.11%—×0.850—×0.9880.93%
Singles /BIP25.50%÷1.000×0.970×0.968×0.98823.65%
Doubles /BIP9.00%÷1.000×0.860×0.968×0.9887.40%
Triples /BIP0.50%÷1.000×0.950×0.968×0.9880.45%
Home runs /BIP3.00%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9882.31%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.

Result: wOBA .316 → .257; ISO .123 → .097; BABIP .355 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAARochester Red Wings · 19 PAwOBA .455 → .367 (−88)K% 31.6% → 37.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA31.58%÷1.000×1.200——37.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.79%÷1.000×0.690—×1.01811.09%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0180.00%
Singles /BIP20.00%÷1.000×0.930—×1.01818.93%
Doubles /BIP10.00%÷1.000×0.830—×1.0188.45%
Triples /BIP10.00%÷1.000×0.970—×1.0189.87%
Home runs /BIP10.00%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0187.13%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .455 → .367; ISO .375 → .300; BABIP .444 → .401. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 250 PAwOBA .286 → .206 (−79)K% 24.0% → 32.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.00%÷0.960×1.310——32.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.80%÷0.986×0.600—×0.9786.43%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.770—×0.9780.00%
Singles /BIP25.31%÷1.004×0.870×0.971×0.97820.81%
Doubles /BIP6.17%÷0.948×0.780×0.971×0.9784.82%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.850×0.971×0.9780.00%
Home runs /BIP1.23%÷0.967×0.880—×0.9781.10%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 101, 2B 90, 3B 100, K 92, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.

Result: wOBA .286 → .206; ISO .072 → .056; BABIP .317 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAHarrisburg Senators · 114 PAwOBA .238 → .217 (−21)K% 26.3% → 32.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.32%÷0.997×1.220——32.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.14%÷0.967×0.700—×0.9984.43%
HBP% /PA1.75%—×0.850—×0.9981.49%
Singles /BIP25.35%÷1.009×0.970×1.026×0.99824.97%
Doubles /BIP2.82%÷0.887×0.860×1.026×0.9982.80%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.913×0.950×1.026×0.9980.00%
Home runs /BIP1.41%÷0.963×0.780—×0.9981.14%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 102, 2B 77, 3B 83, K 99, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.

Result: wOBA .238 → .217; ISO .050 → .043; BABIP .278 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAHarrisburg Senators · 391 PAwOBA .250 → .222 (−28)K% 22.5% → 27.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.51%÷1.008×1.220——27.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.67%÷1.051×0.700—×1.0125.17%
HBP% /PA1.02%—×0.850—×1.0120.88%
Singles /BIP22.90%÷1.010×0.970×1.001×1.01222.26%
Doubles /BIP5.73%÷0.964×0.860×1.001×1.0125.17%
Triples /BIP0.38%÷0.915×0.950×1.001×1.0120.40%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.990×0.780—×1.0120.00%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 102, 2B 93, 3B 83, K 102, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .250 → .222; ISO .049 → .045; BABIP .286 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFredericksburg Nationals · 222 PAwOBA .347 → .247 (−100)K% 31.1% → 43.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA31.08%÷0.978×1.360——43.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.06%÷1.126×0.690—×0.9907.92%
HBP% /PA3.60%—×0.780—×0.9902.78%
Singles /BIP34.21%÷1.016×0.920×0.969×0.99029.72%
Doubles /BIP7.02%÷1.065×0.830×0.969×0.9905.25%
Triples /BIP3.51%÷1.150×0.910×0.969×0.9902.66%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.917×0.800—×0.9900.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 103, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 96, BB 125 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.

Result: wOBA .347 → .247; ISO .087 → .059; BABIP .440 → .369. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 81 PAwOBA .258 → .199 (−59)K% 29.6% → 39.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA29.63%÷0.973×1.310——39.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA2.47%÷1.005×0.600—×0.9981.47%
HBP% /PA1.23%—×0.770—×0.9980.95%
Singles /BIP28.30%÷0.981×0.870×1.005×0.99825.18%
Doubles /BIP5.66%÷0.894×0.780×1.005×0.9984.96%
Triples /BIP1.89%÷0.913×0.850×1.005×0.9981.76%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.913×0.880—×0.9980.00%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 96, 2B 79, 3B 83, K 95, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.

Result: wOBA .258 → .199; ISO .065 → .051; BABIP .352 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AFredericksburg Nationals · 47 PAwOBA .252 → .157 (−95)K% 42.6% → 59.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA42.55%÷0.966×1.360——59.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.64%÷0.970×0.690——7.57%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.780——0.00%
Singles /BIP22.73%÷0.986×0.920——21.21%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷0.933×0.830——0.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.910×0.910——0.00%
Home runs /BIP9.09%÷1.074×0.800——6.77%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 97, 2B 87, 3B 82, K 93, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .252 → .157; ISO .143 → .074; BABIP .250 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).