Cortland Lawson — OGILVIE

Cortland LawsonSS Harrisburg Senators

Age 26 R/R 6'2" / 200 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION360 act + 8 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†51

AVG/OBP/SLG.143 / .250 / .143

PA8

HR0

K%38

BB%12

BABIP298

ISO60

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	22	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	47	42	7	0	0	2	5	20	0	2	0	167	255	310	565	143	250	43	11	259	61	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2023	23	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	81	77	19	3	1	0	2	24	1	0	0	247	275	312	587	65	352	30	2	261	63	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.2
2023	23	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	222	183	51	8	4	0	29	69	8	10	2	279	400	366	766	87	440	31	13	352	124	+6	+1	—	—	+5	1.3
2024	24	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	391	350	76	15	1	0	30	88	4	10	5	217	286	266	552	49	286	23	8	253	58	-20	+0	—	—	+8	-1.1
2025	25	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	114	101	21	2	0	1	7	30	2	1	2	208	273	257	530	50	278	26	6	239	48	-7	-1	—	—	+2	-0.5
2025	25	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	250	222	53	10	0	2	27	60	0	5	2	239	321	311	632	72	317	24	11	292	84	-5	+0	—	—	+5	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	47	44	4	0	0	1	3	29	0	2	0	91	149	159	308	68	235	62	6	153	-10	-6	+0	—	—	+1	-0.5
2023	23	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	81	78	15	2	1	0	1	33	1	0	0	192	212	244	456	51	331	41	1	208	27	-7	+0	—	—	+2	-0.5
2023	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	222	196	37	5	2	0	16	100	8	10	2	189	277	235	512	46	376	45	7	241	49	-13	+1	—	—	+5	-0.8
2024	24	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	391	360	71	14	1	0	20	106	4	10	5	197	247	242	489	44	265	27	5	216	32	-31	+0	—	—	+8	-2.3
2025	25	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	114	103	20	2	0	1	5	37	2	1	2	194	245	243	488	49	266	32	4	213	30	-9	-1	—	—	+2	-0.8
2025	25	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	250	231	43	8	0	2	18	84	0	5	2	186	245	247	492	61	278	34	7	219	34	-20	+0	—	—	+5	-1.4
2022	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	47	44	4	0	0	1	3	29	0	2	0	91	149	159	308	68	214	62	6	153	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	47	42	7	0	0	2	5	20	0	2	0	167	255	310	565	143	250	43	11	259	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	303	273	54	8	3	0	18	133	9	10	2	198	270	249	519	51	378	44	6	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A RAW	2 teams	—	303	260	70	11	5	0	31	93	9	10	2	269	367	350	717	81	412	31	10	328	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	391	360	71	14	1	0	20	106	4	10	5	197	247	242	489	44	275	27	5	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	—	391	350	76	15	1	0	30	88	4	10	5	217	286	266	552	49	286	23	8	253	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	364	334	62	10	0	2	23	120	2	6	4	186	242	234	476	48	279	33	6	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	364	323	74	12	0	3	34	90	2	6	4	229	306	294	601	65	305	25	9	275	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	47	44	4	0	0	1	3	29	0	2	0	91	149	159	308	68	235	62	6	153	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	303	273	54	8	3	0	18	133	9	10	2	198	270	249	519	51	364	44	6	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	391	364	71	14	1	0	20	106	4	10	5	195	247	239	486	44	265	27	5	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	364	336	62	10	0	2	23	120	2	6	4	185	242	232	474	48	274	33	6	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	303	273	54	8	3	0	18	133	9	10	2	198	270	249	519	51	364	44	6	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	391	364	71	14	1	0	20	106	4	10	5	195	247	239	486	44	265	27	5	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	364	336	62	10	0	2	23	120	2	6	4	185	242	232	474	48	274	33	6	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	WSH	—	360	321	66	15	1	5	29	132	4	2	1	206	280	305	585	100	326	37	8	256	59	-17	+0	+0	+4	+8	-0.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA RAW	WSH	—	360	308	76	18	1	6	42	108	4	2	1	247	345	370	715	123	355	30	12	321	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	26	AA MLE	WSH	2%	8	7	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	143	250	143	393		299	38	12	243	51	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	26	AA MLE	WSH	—	368	328	67	15	1	5	30	135	4	2	1	204	279	302	581	98	325	37	8	256	59	-18	+0	+0	+4	+8	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	WSH	27%	269	245	49	10	1	3	20	91	2	3	1	200	266	286	552	86	296	34	7	249	55	-14	+0	+0	+3	+6	-0.6
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	40%	319	289	58	12	1	4	24	105	3	3	2	201	269	291	560	90	296	33	8	254	58	-16	-0	-1	+3	+7	-0.7
2027	27	MLB CTX	WSH	27%	72	66	13	3	0	1	5	24	1	1	0	197	264	288	552	91	296	33	7	242	55	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	40%	127	115	24	5	0	2	10	42	1	1	1	209	278	304	582	96	295	33	8	247	58	-6	-0	-0	+1	+3	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	199	181	37	8	0	3	15	66	2	2	1	204	273	298	571	94	301	33	8	245	42	-10	+0	-0	+2	+4	-0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	591	121	26	0	10	49	216	7	7	3	205	274	299	573	95	302	33	8	245	42	-33	+0	-1	+7	+14	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		—	1701	1552	299	54	6	10	109	587	20	34	14	193	255	255	509	62	299	35	6	230	42	-31	+0	-1	+6	+13	-1.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	115	21	2	4	42	224	8	13	5	194	257	256	513	62	300	34	6	230	42	-34	+0	-1	+7	+14	-1.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2John McDonaldlast yr '14 career totals — 13 seasons, 2,596 PA	3.9	2,596	28	34	233	273	324	+20	+54	4.2	5.1
/162	664	7	9	+5.0	+13.9	1.1	pk7: 6
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.3	204	2	2	200	264	285	+2	+3	-0.3	-0.1
/162	664	8	7	+7.1	+9.7	-0.9	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Cortland Lawson (OGILVIE)	26	40	25	45	45	192/258/268	76	299	2	2	35%	7%	51	-0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Lyle Lin 2023 · AA	26	40	35→30	43→40	40	189/247/246	57	270	3	4	30%	6%	41	-3.0	210/275/282	72	284	5	5	26%	6%	60	-1.6	171/242/188	17	208	0	4	16%	6%	26	-0.8
✕Connor Justus 2021 · AA	26	37→38	37→40	43→45	44	179/255/251	73	251	5	8	29%	7%	47	-2.6	194/257/270	76	290	5	7	32%	7%	51	-2.3	168/234/218	51	258	3	3	33%	7%	28	-2.1
✕Josh Bissonette 2023 · AAA	26	43	36→30	44→30	46	202/263/268	66	268	3	5	25%	7%	52	-2.2	210/273/291	81	277	6	7	24%	8%	61	-1.5	193/259/240	46	254	2	0	23%	8%	41	-0.9
✕Yadiel Rivera 2019 · MLB	27	39→49	38→40	46→50	40	190/245/264	74	274	6	8	32%	6%	45	-2.7	220/258/323	103	315	12	17	33%	5%	63	-1.4	224/249/331	107	323	14	23	34%	3%	57	-1.1
✕Chandler Seagle 2022 · AA	26	40	38→40	44→45	35	193/247/277	84	283	5	5	32%	4%	49	-2.4	190/240/270	80	296	6	6	36%	5%	44	-2.8	170/217/237	67	275	5	4	38%	5%	25	-1.5
✕Mitch Roman 2021 · AA	26	44→53	36→30	46→50	37	206/256/266	61	318	4	11	35%	6%	49	-2.4	198/258/268	70	320	4	18	37%	7%	50	-2.3	170/233/211	40	288	2	27	38%	7%	25	-1.7
✕Tanner Vavra 2015 · A	26	46	35→30	45	41	212/276/271	58	308	2	7	30%	6%	57	-1.8	219/285/284	65	306	3	8	28%	6%	64	-1.3	220/291/258	39	306	0	7	26%	5%	57	-0.8
✕Pat Cantwell 2017 · AAA	27	43	36→30	42→40	40	206/265/270	64	280	4	7	27%	5%	53	-2.1	217/284/309	92	303	8	9	29%	6%	70	-0.8	253/339/383	130	321	13	6	24%	8%	105	+0.4
✕Chris Givin 2022 · AA	25	38	38→30	50→45	43	188/250/263	74	259	6	6	29%	7%	46	-2.6	203/267/280	77	271	6	7	26%	7%	57	-1.8	197/264/256	59	255	4	5	23%	8%	47	-1.2
✕Anthony Mulrine 2023 · AAA	25	37	37→40	45→40	40	178/255/248	70	259	5	5	32%	6%	46	-2.6	192/272/277	85	272	7	6	30%	7%	59	-1.7	144/248/206	63	200	4	0	27%	8%	33	-0.8
✕Korey Feiner 2008 · AAA	26	41	35→30	46→30	46	194/274/248	55	272	3	3	28%	8%	53	-2.1	197/271/264	67	267	5	5	27%	6%	55	-1.9	177/270/238	62	247	7	0	29%	6%	48	-0.5
✕Yohannis Perez 2009 · AA	26	46→48	35→30	42→40	39	216/259/279	62	289	3	5	26%	4%	52	-2.2	226/271/308	82	283	5	6	21%	5%	63	-1.3	241/281/318	77	285	5	2	17%	5%	67	-0.5
✕Beau Seabury 2011 · A	26	41	35→30	40→45	36	193/242/250	57	294	2	5	34%	5%	40	-3.1	217/268/311	94	312	8	6	31%	5%	64	-1.3	230/269/348	118	313	11	0	29%	4%	70	-0.2
✕Cody Bohanek 2021 · AAA	26	39→36	38→40	44→50	39	180/268/256	77	304	6	11	39%	8%	53	-2.1	179/276/283	104	292	9	15	38%	8%	63	-1.4	154/260/256	101	254	9	18	39%	9%	50	-1.3
✕Matt Whatley 2022 · AA	26	40→38	38→40	45→50	45	194/267/268	75	278	6	14	31%	8%	54	-2.0	189/250/280	91	266	10	9	31%	6%	51	-2.3	166/228/249	83	225	11	8	31%	6%	34	-1.3
✕Matt McLaughlin 2021 · A	25	45→43	36→30	44→45	44	209/273/277	67	290	3	10	27%	7%	57	-1.8	202/264/280	78	269	6	7	25%	6%	55	-1.9	180/243/240	60	235	4	3	24%	6%	36	-1.8
✕Cristopher Navarro 2023 · AA	24	39	35→30	46→45	36	185/230/236	51	281	3	6	34%	5%	31	-3.7	191/245/263	72	274	5	6	30%	6%	44	-2.8	172/230/237	65	240	4	2	28%	6%	31	-0.8
✕Scott Burcham 2019 · AA	26	45	37→30	44→50	39	214/259/288	74	299	5	12	29%	5%	54	-2.0	194/244/271	77	290	6	10	33%	6%	45	-2.7	160/208/219	59	248	4	6	35%	5%	17	-1.5
✕Evan Mendoza 2022 · AAA	26	45→51	35→30	49→50	40	213/258/268	55	299	3	15	29%	5%	49	-2.4	211/269/281	70	265	6	18	21%	7%	57	-1.8	200/264/254	55	239	5	21	18%	8%	47	-1.1
✕Greg Paiml 2011 · AA	26	44	37→40	46→50	33	206/244/277	71	311	4	8	34%	4%	46	-2.6	204/247/270	66	308	3	15	33%	5%	46	-2.6	195/239/250	55	299	2	19	33%	4%	36	-1.9

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps