Cortland Lawson — OGILVIE

Cortland LawsonSS Harrisburg Senators

Age 26 R/R 6'2" / 200 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION212 act + 141 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†33

AVG/OBP/SLG.183 / .235 / .244

PA141

HR1

K%35

BB%6

BABIP283

ISO61

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	22	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	47	44	4	0	0	1	3	30	0	2	0	91	149	159	308	68	231	64	6	143	-32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	47	42	7	0	0	2	5	20	0	2	0	167	255	310	565	143	250	43	11	259	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A	2 teams	—	303	275	53	8	3	0	16	137	9	10	2	193	260	244	504	51	376	45	5	225	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A	2 teams	—	303	260	70	11	5	0	31	93	9	10	2	269	367	350	717	81	412	31	10	328	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	391	361	69	14	1	0	19	112	4	10	5	191	240	235	475	44	273	29	5	212	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	391	350	76	15	1	0	30	88	4	10	5	217	286	266	552	49	286	23	8	253	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	A+	2 teams	—	364	334	62	10	0	3	23	126	2	6	4	186	242	243	485	57	284	35	6	216	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	A+	2 teams	—	364	323	74	12	0	3	34	90	2	6	4	229	306	294	601	65	305	25	9	275	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	26	AA	WSH	—	212	192	37	8	1	3	13	80	3	1	1	193	255	292	546	99	304	38	6	245	46	-13	-0	+0	+2	+6	-0.5
YTD	26	AA	WSH	—	212	186	45	10	1	4	19	62	3	1	1	242	322	371	693	129	333	29	9	308	94	-1	-0	+0	+2	+6	0.7
ROS	26	AA	WSH	2%	141	131	24	5	0	1	8	50	1	2	1	183	235	244	479	61	286	35	6	228	33	-11	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.5
ROS	26	MLB	WSH	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						286	33	0	221	27	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	26	AA	WSH	—	215	195	37	8	1	3	13	81	3	1	1	190	251	287	538	97	298	38	6	245	45	-13	-0	+0	+2	+6	-0.5
TOT	26	AA	WSH	—	353	323	61	13	1	4	21	130	4	3	2	189	247	272	519	84	295	37	6	238	41	-24	-0	+0	+4	+10	-1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	WSH	27%	269	247	47	9	1	3	17	91	3	3	2	190	251	271	522	81	287	34	6	238	41	-18	-0	+0	+3	+8	-0.8
2028	28	MLB	WSH	40%	319	292	57	11	1	4	21	106	3	4	2	195	256	281	537	86	287	33	7	244	45	-20	+0	-1	+3	+9	-0.8
2027	27	MLB	WSH	27%	72	66	12	2	0	1	5	24	1	1	0	182	250	258	508	76	287	33	7	231	35	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.2
2028	28	MLB	WSH	40%	127	117	22	4	0	2	8	42	1	2	1	188	246	274	520	85	287	33	6	237	39	-9	+0	-0	+1	+4	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	202	186	34	6	0	3	13	67	2	3	1	183	244	263	507	81	265	33	6	235	38	-14	+0	-0	+2	+6	-0.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	599	109	19	0	10	42	216	6	10	3	182	243	264	506	82	263	33	6	235	38	-46	+1	-1	+7	+18	-2.1
Career	—			—	1834	1684	316	57	6	12	107	652	22	37	16	188	245	250	495	62	294	36	6	224	29	-146	+1	-1	+20	+52	-7.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	597	111	20	2	4	38	231	8	13	6	186	244	246	490	60	292	36	6	224	29	-52	+0	-0	+7	+18	-2.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	22	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	47	42	7	0	0	2	5	20	0	2	0	167	255	310	565	143	250	43	11	259	56	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2023	23	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	81	77	19	3	1	0	2	24	1	0	0	247	275	312	587	65	352	30	2	261	58	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.2
2023	23	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	222	183	51	8	4	0	29	69	8	10	2	279	400	366	766	87	440	31	13	352	128	+7	+1	—	—	+6	1.5
2024	24	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	391	350	76	15	1	0	30	88	4	10	5	217	286	266	552	49	286	23	8	253	52	-21	+0	—	—	+11	-1.0
2025	25	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	114	101	21	2	0	1	7	30	2	1	2	208	273	257	530	50	278	26	6	239	41	-8	-1	—	—	+3	-0.5
2025	25	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	250	222	53	10	0	2	27	60	0	5	2	239	321	311	632	72	317	24	11	292	81	-5	+0	—	—	+7	0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	204	2	2	194	252	276	+2	+3	-0.6	-0.3
	/162	664	8	8	194	252	276	+7.1	+9.7	-1.8	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Cortland Lawson (OGILVIE)	26	40	25	45	45	189/247/272	84	295	4	3	37%	6%	41	-1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Lyle Lin 2023 · AA	26	40	35→30	43→40	40	189/248/245	56	270	3	4	30%	6%	33	-2.9	211/276/282	71	286	5	5	26%	6%	56	-1.3	165/233/180	15	204	0	4	18%	6%	10	-0.8
✕Josh Bissonette 2023 · AAA	26	41	36→30	44→30	45	197/256/265	68	265	3	5	26%	7%	42	-2.3	207/267/288	81	275	6	7	25%	7%	53	-1.5	190/254/236	46	252	2	0	24%	8%	30	-1.0
✕Connor Justus 2021 · AA	26	35→37	37→40	43→45	42	172/248/244	72	250	5	8	31%	7%	35	-2.8	192/256/268	76	294	6	7	34%	7%	43	-2.2	166/232/217	51	261	3	3	35%	7%	17	-2.1
✕Beau Seabury 2011 · A	26	41	35→30	40→45	36	193/241/250	57	293	2	5	34%	5%	31	-3.0	217/268/318	101	312	9	6	32%	5%	61	-1.0	228/266/363	135	307	15	0	30%	4%	69	-0.1
✕Chandler Seagle 2022 · AA	26	40	39→40	44→45	34	192/246/279	87	294	6	5	35%	4%	42	-2.3	189/241/273	84	303	7	6	38%	5%	37	-2.6	167/216/237	70	277	6	4	40%	5%	15	-1.5
✕Tanner Vavra 2015 · A	26	45	35→30	45	40	207/270/264	57	303	2	7	30%	6%	48	-1.9	215/280/280	65	302	3	8	28%	5%	56	-1.3	214/283/254	41	299	0	7	26%	4%	47	-0.9
✕Korey Feiner 2008 · AAA	26	41	35→30	46→30	46	193/274/248	55	272	3	3	28%	8%	46	-2.0	196/270/264	68	267	5	5	27%	6%	49	-1.8	177/270/238	62	247	7	0	29%	6%	41	-0.5
✕Matt McLaughlin 2021 · A	25	43→39	36→30	44→45	45	201/268/266	65	283	3	10	28%	8%	47	-1.9	198/260/278	80	265	6	7	26%	6%	48	-1.9	174/236/237	64	227	5	3	25%	6%	24	-1.9
✕Scott Burcham 2019 · AA	26	44	37→30	44→50	38	207/251/276	68	298	4	12	31%	5%	42	-2.3	187/236/261	74	286	6	10	34%	6%	32	-3.0	146/193/200	54	232	4	6	37%	5%	-4	-1.7
✕Greg Paiml 2011 · AA	26	43→45	37→40	46→50	33	204/241/276	72	312	4	8	35%	4%	38	-2.6	204/247/272	68	315	3	15	34%	5%	39	-2.5	196/239/254	58	307	2	19	35%	4%	29	-1.8
✕Mitch Roman 2021 · AA	26	44→52	36→30	46→50	37	202/253/262	60	321	4	11	36%	6%	40	-2.4	193/250/262	69	321	4	18	38%	6%	39	-2.5	157/215/198	40	275	2	27	41%	6%	4	-2.0
✕Matt Whatley 2022 · AA	26	40→36	38→40	45→50	44	192/263/267	75	276	7	14	31%	8%	46	-2.0	190/249/283	93	268	11	9	32%	6%	45	-2.1	167/230/254	87	226	12	8	31%	6%	27	-1.2
✕Cody Bohanek 2021 · AAA	26	38→36	38→40	44→50	38	172/263/245	73	309	5	11	42%	8%	42	-2.3	183/278/292	109	301	9	15	39%	8%	61	-1.0	161/264/270	110	265	10	18	39%	8%	48	-1.0
✕Chris Givin 2022 · AA	25	38	38→30	50→45	42	186/246/261	75	259	6	6	30%	7%	37	-2.6	202/265/279	77	274	6	7	26%	7%	50	-1.8	195/263/252	57	256	4	5	24%	8%	40	-1.1
✕Antonio Nunez 2018 · AA	25	44→51	34→30	47→50	44	206/273/255	49	300	3	12	30%	8%	46	-2.0	194/250/263	69	313	5	14	37%	6%	39	-2.5	152/201/199	47	272	2	19	42%	5%	0	-2.1
✕Cristopher Navarro 2023 · AA	24	38	34→30	46→45	35	183/227/233	50	283	3	6	35%	5%	20	-3.8	189/242/261	72	274	4	6	31%	6%	35	-2.8	168/225/233	65	237	3	2	29%	6%	18	-0.8
✕Evan Mendoza 2022 · AAA	26	44→51	35→30	49→50	38	208/251/263	55	297	3	15	30%	5%	38	-2.6	207/263/280	73	261	6	18	22%	7%	48	-1.9	195/258/253	58	234	6	21	18%	8%	37	-1.2
✕Yohannis Perez 2009 · AA	26	46→47	35→30	42→40	39	215/258/278	62	290	3	5	26%	4%	45	-2.1	226/271/310	84	285	6	6	22%	5%	59	-1.1	240/279/321	81	285	6	2	18%	5%	63	-0.4
✕Cole Daily 2022 · AA	25	41	35→30	43→55	45	193/258/249	56	273	3	8	29%	8%	39	-2.5	201/272/270	69	315	4	16	34%	9%	50	-1.7	184/263/228	44	298	1	24	35%	9%	33	-1.4
✕Richard Lewis 2006 · AAA	26	42	38→40	49→50	41	202/257/283	81	279	6	9	29%	6%	47	-1.9	214/259/292	78	277	6	12	24%	5%	50	-1.8	213/255/281	68	271	4	12	22%	4%	43	-1.4