Ryan Gusto
P
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 232 lbs
AAA
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.8 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION71 act + 71 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116106vR 97
ERA4.26
FIP4.24
K%21.1%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%12.3%
ROS IP71
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 142 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4193.9
Whiff%
p1620.5%
K%
p2819.0%
xwOBA vs
p210.346
SL (22%)
FB (39%)
SI (14%)
CU (6%)
CH (19%)
CT (13%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | GCL Astros | 2 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 50% | 1.8 | 35.3% | 17.6% | 17.6% | 0.0% | 2.45 | 2.35 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | GCL Astros | 2 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 50% | 1.8 | 35.3% | 17.6% | 17.6% | 0.0% | 2.45 | 2.28 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 13 | 90 | 395 | 96 | 36 | 14 | 57% | 3.9 | 18.5% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 4.7% | 5.50 | 5.47 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 13 | 90 | 395 | 96 | 36 | 14 | 57% | 3.9 | 24.3% | 9.1% | 15.2% | 3.5% | 5.50 | 4.19 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 14 | 110 | 468 | 115 | 46 | 13 | 54% | 4.2 | 19.5% | 11.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | 4.50 | 4.15 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 14 | 110 | 468 | 115 | 46 | 13 | 54% | 4.2 | 24.6% | 9.8% | 14.7% | 2.8% | 4.50 | 3.80 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 29 | 26 | 148 | 623 | 141 | 53 | 14 | 90% | 5.1 | 19.9% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 3.70 | 4.23 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 29 | 26 | 148 | 623 | 141 | 53 | 14 | 90% | 5.1 | 22.6% | 8.5% | 14.1% | 2.2% | 3.70 | 3.50 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 19 | 106 | 478 | 99 | 38 | 17 | 66% | 3.7 | 21.4% | 7.9% | 13.5% | 4.0% | 5.86 | 4.48 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 19 | 106 | 478 | 99 | 38 | 17 | 66% | 3.7 | 20.7% | 7.9% | 12.8% | 3.6% | 5.86 | 4.39 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 19 | 13 | 71 | 310 | 75 | 27 | 7 | 68% | 3.7 | 22.2% | 9.0% | 13.2% | 2.4% | 4.31 | 3.68 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 71 | 299 | 63 | 26 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.1% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 4.26 | 4.24 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 71 | 300 | 63 | 26 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.1% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 3.2% | 4.21 | 4.19 | +0.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 142 | 609 | 138 | 53 | 17 | — | — | 22.7% | 8.7% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 3.96 | +2.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 97 | 410 | 138 | 53 | 17 | — | — | 33.7% | 13.0% | 20.7% | 4.0% | 6.22 | 4.12 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 17 | 17 | 102 | 429 | 86 | 38 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.9% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 3.4% | 4.75 | 4.78 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 16 | 16 | 97 | 410 | 79 | 37 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.3% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 3.6% | 4.86 | 4.94 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 15 | 15 | 91 | 385 | 72 | 36 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.6% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 3.8% | 5.03 | 5.14 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 14 | 14 | 85 | 359 | 64 | 35 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.9% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 4.0% | 5.24 | 5.37 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 16 | 16 | 97 | 410 | 82 | 36 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.9% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 3.3% | 4.70 | 4.73 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 15 | 15 | 92 | 388 | 75 | 35 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.3% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 3.5% | 4.81 | 4.89 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 14 | 14 | 87 | 367 | 68 | 34 | 13 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.6% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 3.7% | 4.97 | 5.08 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 14 | 14 | 81 | 342 | 61 | 33 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.9% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 3.9% | 5.18 | 5.31 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 108 | 95 | 555 | 2378 | 469 | 210 | 83 | 88% | 5.1 | 19.7% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 3.5% | 4.97 | 4.47 | +6.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 34 | 200 | 857 | 169 | 76 | 30 | 88% | 5.1 | 19.7% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 3.5% | 4.97 | 4.47 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 128 | 86 | 529 | 2291 | 465 | 218 | 75 | 67% | 4.1 | 20.3% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 4.39 | +6.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 33 | 200 | 866 | 176 | 82 | 28 | 67% | 4.1 | 20.3% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 4.39 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Gusto (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.78 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 3.5% | — | 4.95 | 19.3% | 10.3% | 290 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 78 |
| Raynel Espinal R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | .313 | 3.72 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 224 | -0.04 | 2.53 | 507 | 77 |
| Brad Peacock R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .302 | 3.31 | 29.4% | 20.4% | 289 | -0.58 | 2.88 | 533 | 76 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 4.90 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.46 | 4.44 | 200 | 76 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 74 |
| Rafael Montero R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.85 | 22.0% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .339 | 3.46 | 28.7% | 22.8% | 47 | -0.39 | 2.38 | 663 | 73 |
| Kris Medlen R 2028 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 72 |
| Jason Alexander R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .380 | 4.42 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 150 | +0.53 | 2.08 | 796 | 72 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2028 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.49 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.56 | 3.57 | 283 | 72 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .343 | 4.35 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | +0.40 | 3.26 | 493 | 71 |
| Mike Wright Jr. R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.00 | 19.5% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .298 | 3.98 | 19.5% | 11.4% | 172 | -0.02 | 3.73 | 725 | 71 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 71 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 70 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.88 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.28 | 3.25 | 221 | 70 |
| Tyler Chatwood R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.33 | 19.0% | 11.9% | 2.4% | .279 | 4.46 | 20.6% | 5.2% | 199 | +0.13 | 3.22 | 537 | 70 |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 70 |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.68 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 5.21 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.53 | 3.68 | 244 | 70 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 70 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 70 |
| David Phelps R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 95 | 19.3% | 9.0% | 1.40 | 4.92 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| Homer Bailey ('19) | 4 | 96 | 18.5% | 7.8% | 1.34 | 5.56 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Daniel Mengden ('19) | 4 | 73 | 17.3% | 7.7% | 1.24 | 4.68 |