Ryan Gusto — OGILVIE

Ryan Gusto P Miami Marlins

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 232 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.0 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION123 act + 9 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.26

FIP4.21

K%20.2%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%12.3%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 132 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5194.6

Whiff%

p1720.6%

p2618.7%

xwOBA vs

p290.336

SL (24%)

FB (41%)

SI (13%)

CU (9%)

CH (14%)

CT (13%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.6M	+$0.5M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2028	Arb-1	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$2M	+$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	20	ROK MLE	GCL Astros	2	1	4	17	6	3	0	50%	1.8	35.3%	17.6%	17.6%	0.0%	2.45	2.35	—
2019	20	ROK RAW	GCL Astros	2	1	4	17	6	3	0	50%	1.8	35.3%	17.6%	17.6%	0.0%	2.45	2.28	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	13	90	395	96	36	14	57%	3.9	18.5%	10.5%	8.0%	4.6%	5.50	5.38	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	13	90	395	96	36	14	57%	3.9	24.3%	9.1%	15.2%	3.5%	5.50	4.19	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	14	110	468	115	46	13	54%	4.2	19.5%	11.0%	8.4%	2.8%	4.50	4.39	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	14	110	468	115	46	13	54%	4.2	19.5%	11.0%	8.4%	2.8%	4.50	4.39	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	14	110	468	115	46	13	54%	4.2	24.6%	9.8%	14.7%	2.8%	4.50	3.80	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	29	26	148	623	141	53	14	90%	5.1	18.8%	7.7%	11.1%	2.7%	3.70	3.99	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	29	26	148	623	141	53	14	90%	5.1	18.8%	7.7%	11.1%	2.7%	3.70	3.99	—
2024	25	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	29	26	148	623	141	53	14	90%	5.1	22.6%	8.5%	14.1%	2.2%	3.70	3.50	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	19	106	478	99	38	17	66%	3.7	21.4%	7.9%	13.5%	4.0%	5.86	4.47	+0.5
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	19	106	478	99	38	17	66%	3.7	21.4%	7.9%	13.5%	4.0%	5.86	4.47	+0.5
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	19	106	478	99	38	17	66%	3.7	20.7%	7.9%	12.8%	3.6%	5.86	4.39	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			48	33	180	800	162	61	26	69%	3.8	20.2%	7.6%	12.6%	3.2%	5.00	4.19	+1.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	31	23	123	536	117	42	13	74%	4.0	20.2%	7.5%	12.7%	2.6%	4.02	3.77	+1.7
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	31	23	123	536	117	42	13	74%	4.0	20.2%	7.5%	12.7%	2.6%	4.02	3.77	+1.7
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	MIA	10	7	45	189	52	17	4	70%	4.5	27.5%	9.0%	18.5%	2.1%	3.83	3.08	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	MIA	21	16	78	347	65	25	9	76%	3.7	18.7%	7.2%	11.5%	2.6%	4.14	3.85	+1.0
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	MIA	21	16	78	347	65	25	9	76%	3.7	18.7%	7.2%	11.5%	2.6%	4.14	3.85	+1.0
ROS	27	MLB MLE	MIA	1	1	9	36	7	3	1	100%	8.6	20.2%	7.9%	12.3%	3.3%	4.26	4.21	+0.1
ROS	27	MLB CTX	MIA	2	2	9	38	8	3	1	100%	4.5	20.2%	7.9%	12.3%	3.1%	4.17	4.12	+0.1
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	132	572	124	45	14	—	—	21.7%	7.8%	13.9%	2.5%	4.04	3.80	+1.7
FULL	27	MLB A+C	MIA	—	—	87	367	124	45	14	—	—	33.9%	12.2%	21.7%	3.9%	6.11	3.90	+1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	MIA	17	17	102	429	83	34	14	100%	6.0	19.3%	7.9%	11.4%	3.2%	4.58	4.60	+0.4
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIA	16	16	97	410	77	33	14	100%	6.1	18.7%	8.1%	10.6%	3.3%	4.69	4.76	+0.2
2029	30	MLB MLE	MIA	15	15	91	385	69	32	14	100%	6.1	18.0%	8.4%	9.6%	3.5%	4.85	4.96	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	MIA	16	16	97	410	79	32	12	100%	6.1	19.3%	7.9%	11.4%	3.0%	4.49	4.51	+0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIA	15	15	92	388	73	32	12	100%	6.1	18.7%	8.1%	10.6%	3.2%	4.60	4.67	+0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	MIA	14	14	87	367	66	31	12	100%	6.2	18.0%	8.4%	9.6%	3.4%	4.75	4.86	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		96	81	464	2000	387	158	64	84%	4.8	19.4%	7.9%	11.4%	3.2%	4.75	4.23	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	35	200	862	167	68	28	84%	4.9	19.4%	7.9%	11.4%	3.2%	4.75	4.23	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		140	96	581	2517	498	222	81	69%	4.2	19.8%	8.8%	10.9%	3.2%	4.59	4.32	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	33	200	866	171	77	28	69%	4.2	19.8%	8.8%	10.9%	3.2%	4.59	4.32	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Gusto (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.70	20.2%	8.3%	3.4%	—	4.77	18.7%	10.6%	290	+0.07	—	—	—
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	83
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	79
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	79
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	78
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	77
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	533	76
Jacob Turner R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	27	SP-	4.48	14.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	340	76
Mitch Atkins R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	30	SP-	3.65	21.4%	8.2%	2.4%	.341	4.77	14.3%	6.2%	78	+1.12	3.65	205	74
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	74
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	74
David Hale R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	16.2%	6.8%	2.8%	.343	4.11	13.8%	8.1%	251	-0.04	3.30	493	73
Rafael Montero R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	26	SP-	3.88	22.0%	11.2%	2.2%	.339	3.41	28.7%	22.8%	47	-0.47	2.43	670	73
Mike Wright Jr. R 2017 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	19.5%	7.4%	2.6%	.298	3.96	19.5%	11.4%	172	+0.14	3.76	725	73
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	73
Jason Alexander R 2019 · 3.96 FIP	26	SP-	3.96	17.1%	8.2%	2.3%	.380	4.28	16.2%	8.5%	150	+0.32	2.08	829	73
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	72
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	72
Mat Latos R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	20.2%	6.3%	2.6%	.306	5.16	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.56	3.60	244	72
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	373	71
Tyler Chatwood R 2017 · 4.54 FIP	27	SP-	4.54	19.0%	11.9%	2.8%	.279	4.53	20.6%	5.2%	199	-0.01	3.30	537	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	98	19.1%	8.2%	1.30	4.71
Daniel Mengden ('19)	1.5	73	17.3%	7.7%	1.24	4.68
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24