Ryan Gusto
P
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
+0.2
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 232 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2027
ERA5.03
FIP4.60
xFIP2.52
SIERA1.66
K%21.3%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%12.7%
IP102
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2027
STUF4545
CTRL5050
CMD4545
K†5050
FB Velo
p4494.1
Whiff%
p3723.4%
K%
p4521.4%
xwOBA vs
p340.330
SL (42%)
FB (50%)
SI (17%)
CT (8%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | GCL Astros | 2 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.45 | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 23 | 13 | 90 | 395 | 96 | 36 | 14 | 18.5% | 10.5% | 4.6% | 5.50 | 5.39 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 26 | 14 | 110 | 468 | 115 | 46 | 13 | 19.5% | 11.0% | 2.7% | 4.50 | 4.35 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 29 | 26 | 148 | 623 | 141 | 53 | 14 | 19.9% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 3.70 | 4.07 | +2.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 29 | 19 | 106 | 478 | 99 | 38 | 17 | 21.4% | 7.9% | 3.9% | 5.86 | 4.44 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 3 | 1 | 9 | 37 | 12 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | MIA | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 32 | 14 | 5 | 20.8% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 5.16 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 46 | 192 | 44 | 16 | 6 | 23.0% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 4.74 | 3.81 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 16 | 16 | 89 | 375 | 78 | 33 | 13 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 4.93 | 4.77 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 15 | 15 | 81 | 340 | 69 | 30 | 12 | 20.2% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 4.88 | 4.84 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 13 | 13 | 73 | 307 | 67 | 25 | 11 | 21.7% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 4.75 | 4.67 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 65 | 275 | 58 | 23 | 10 | 21.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 4.76 | 4.77 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 58 | — | 58 | 246 | 50 | 21 | 9 | 20.4% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 4.83 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 43 | 19 | 8 | 19.8% | 8.7% | 3.8% | 4.94 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 37 | 17 | 8 | 19.1% | 8.9% | 3.9% | 5.07 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 31 | 15 | 7 | 18.4% | 9.1% | 4.0% | 5.21 | 5.30 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 26 | 14 | 6 | 17.6% | 9.4% | 4.2% | 5.36 | 5.47 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 112 | 74 | 467 | 2018 | 409 | 192 | 68 | 20.3% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.70 | 4.44 | +4.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 32 | 200 | 864 | 175 | 82 | 29 | 20.3% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.70 | 4.44 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Gusto (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.74 | 20.8% | 8.8% | 3.5% | — | 4.76 | 20.8% | 12.1% | 242 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.91 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 3.53 | 23.3% | 15.0% | 198 | -0.38 | 2.86 | 596 | 78 |
| Raynel Espinal R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.92 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 3.3% | .313 | 4.10 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 224 | +0.18 | 2.48 | 507 | 75 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.80 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .295 | 3.70 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.10 | 3.17 | 269 | 75 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.91 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .348 | 3.55 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.36 | 2.38 | 160 | 75 |
| Luke Bard R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.62 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .320 | 4.55 | 21.5% | 13.8% | 68 | -0.07 | 2.87 | 388 | 74 |
| Alan Busenitz R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.14 | 23.2% | 7.5% | 3.7% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 436 | 74 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.66 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 3.3% | .307 | 3.46 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.20 | 3.35 | 227 | 74 |
| Derek Gordon R 2024 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 146 | 73 |
| Bryan Evans R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.19 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 3.3% | .250 | 4.61 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 132 | +0.42 | 3.86 | 231 | 73 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 73 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2025 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.84 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 206 | 73 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.05 | 16.4% | 9.4% | 2.1% | .297 | 4.12 | 22.9% | 12.0% | 293 | +0.07 | 3.40 | 556 | 73 |
| Vinny Nittoli R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.20 | 19.0% | 6.9% | 3.3% | .302 | 3.84 | 26.9% | 20.4% | 93 | -0.36 | 3.68 | 331 | 73 |
| Neftalí Feliz R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.58 | 18.2% | 5.7% | 2.4% | .337 | 4.93 | 20.2% | 8.4% | 191 | +1.35 | 3.58 | 291 | 72 |
| Taylor Grover R 2025 · 4.95 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.95 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.9% | .320 | 4.89 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | -0.06 | 3.69 | 239 | 72 |
| Norge Ruiz R 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.46 | 19.6% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .318 | 5.16 | 13.2% | 3.8% | 45 | +0.70 | 3.73 | 367 | 72 |
| Steve Geltz R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.88 | 22.7% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .209 | 4.78 | 22.2% | 12.0% | 89 | +0.90 | 3.57 | 157 | 72 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.81 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 4.2% | .341 | 4.59 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 71 | -0.22 | 3.74 | 223 | 72 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.55 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .325 | 4.15 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 153 | -0.40 | 4.02 | 328 | 72 |
| JC Ramírez R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.28 | 17.6% | 6.0% | 3.5% | .266 | 4.59 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 188 | +0.31 | 3.80 | 369 | 71 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.