Will Simpson
1B Montgomery Biscuits| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | AA/A+OAK | 550 | .282/.384/.482 | 18 | 5 | 86 | — | .217/.297/.375 |
| 2025 | 23 | AATB | 479 | .217/.292/.350 | 12 | 8 | 46 | — | .181/.237/.293 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA/AATB | 529 | .251/.335/.482 | 27 | 22 | 77 | — | .204/.268/.382 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 25 | MLBTB | 4 | .211/.274/.364 | 0 | 0 | 79 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 26 | MLBTB | 79 | .213/.276/.367 | 2 | 1 | 80 | -0.1 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 21 | A | Stockton Ports | — | 126 | 115 | 37 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 29 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 322 | 376 | 522 | 898 | 200 | 398 | 23 | 8 | 392 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Athletics | — | 24 | 23 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 304 | 333 | 652 | 986 | 348 | 312 | 21 | 4 | 423 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 76 | 69 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 348 | 408 | 493 | 901 | 145 | 449 | 24 | 9 | 401 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 474 | 396 | 107 | 27 | 4 | 16 | 69 | 117 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 270 | 380 | 480 | 860 | 210 | 336 | 25 | 15 | 375 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 479 | 428 | 93 | 21 | 0 | 12 | 42 | 109 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 217 | 292 | 350 | 642 | 133 | 260 | 23 | 9 | 288 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 21 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 429 | 400 | 829 | 200 | 200 | 19 | 29 | 385 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 508 | 452 | 114 | 27 | 0 | 26 | 48 | 143 | 5 | 21 | 4 | 252 | 331 | 485 | 815 | 232 | 308 | 28 | 9 | 357 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 126 | 118 | 29 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 40 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 246 | 288 | 390 | 678 | 144 | 338 | 32 | 6 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 24 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 174 | 208 | 348 | 556 | 174 | 231 | 29 | 4 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 76 | 71 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 282 | 329 | 408 | 737 | 127 | 386 | 30 | 7 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 474 | 416 | 86 | 20 | 3 | 14 | 49 | 153 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 207 | 292 | 370 | 662 | 163 | 272 | 32 | 10 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 479 | 441 | 80 | 19 | 0 | 10 | 29 | 132 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 181 | 237 | 293 | 529 | 111 | 227 | 28 | 6 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 21 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 176 | 333 | 353 | 686 | 176 | 187 | 24 | 19 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 508 | 467 | 96 | 23 | 0 | 20 | 33 | 174 | 5 | 21 | 4 | 206 | 265 | 383 | 649 | 178 | 274 | 34 | 6 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 150 | 141 | 35 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 47 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 248 | 289 | 418 | 707 | 170 | 333 | 31 | 5 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 150 | 138 | 44 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 34 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 319 | 369 | 543 | 913 | 225 | 384 | 23 | 7 | 397 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 550 | 487 | 106 | 23 | 3 | 16 | 54 | 175 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 218 | 297 | 376 | 673 | 158 | 296 | 32 | 10 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 550 | 465 | 131 | 31 | 4 | 18 | 76 | 135 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 282 | 384 | 482 | 865 | 200 | 353 | 25 | 14 | 378 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 479 | 441 | 80 | 19 | 0 | 10 | 29 | 132 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 181 | 237 | 293 | 529 | 111 | 230 | 28 | 6 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA RAW | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 479 | 428 | 93 | 21 | 0 | 12 | 42 | 109 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 217 | 292 | 350 | 642 | 133 | 260 | 23 | 9 | 288 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 529 | 484 | 99 | 23 | 0 | 21 | 37 | 179 | 5 | 22 | 4 | 205 | 268 | 382 | 650 | 178 | 272 | 34 | 7 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 529 | 467 | 117 | 27 | 0 | 27 | 54 | 147 | 5 | 22 | 4 | 251 | 335 | 482 | 816 | 231 | 304 | 28 | 10 | 358 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 150 | 141 | 35 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 47 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 248 | 289 | 418 | 707 | 170 | 321 | 31 | 5 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 550 | 490 | 106 | 23 | 3 | 16 | 54 | 175 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 216 | 297 | 373 | 671 | 157 | 288 | 32 | 10 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 479 | 444 | 80 | 19 | 0 | 10 | 29 | 132 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 180 | 237 | 291 | 527 | 110 | 227 | 28 | 6 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 529 | 482 | 99 | 23 | 0 | 21 | 37 | 179 | 5 | 22 | 4 | 205 | 268 | 384 | 652 | 178 | 271 | 34 | 7 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 550 | 490 | 106 | 23 | 3 | 16 | 54 | 175 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 216 | 297 | 373 | 671 | 157 | 288 | 32 | 10 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 479 | 444 | 80 | 19 | 0 | 10 | 29 | 132 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 180 | 237 | 291 | 527 | 110 | 227 | 28 | 6 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 529 | 482 | 99 | 23 | 0 | 21 | 37 | 179 | 5 | 22 | 4 | 205 | 268 | 384 | 652 | 178 | 271 | 34 | 7 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | TB | 2% | 380 | 348 | 73 | 16 | 1 | 12 | 27 | 116 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 211 | 273 | 367 | 640 | 156 | 275 | 31 | 7 | 284 | 79 | -10 | +1 | +0 | -7 | +8 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | TB | 2% | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 274 | 364 | 637 | 152 | 277 | 25 | 0 | 284 | 79 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | TB | 31% | 254 | 231 | 49 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 19 | 76 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 213 | 275 | 370 | 645 | 157 | 275 | 30 | 7 | 287 | 80 | -6 | +1 | +0 | -5 | +6 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | TB | 31% | 79 | 73 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 213 | 276 | 367 | 643 | 153 | 278 | 30 | 8 | 286 | 80 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 79 | 73 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 192 | 253 | 315 | 568 | 123 | 255 | 30 | 8 | 286 | 73 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 601 | 115 | 25 | 0 | 16 | 49 | 197 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 191 | 252 | 313 | 565 | 121 | 255 | 30 | 8 | 286 | 73 | -15 | +2 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -1.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2172 | 1976 | 409 | 94 | 3 | 67 | 162 | 673 | 12 | 47 | 13 | 207 | 271 | 359 | 630 | 152 | 273 | 31 | 7 | 276 | 73 | -11 | +1 | +0 | -8 | +10 | -0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 591 | 122 | 28 | 1 | 20 | 48 | 201 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 206 | 271 | 359 | 629 | 152 | 271 | 31 | 7 | 276 | 73 | -16 | +1 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -1.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 508 PAwOBA .349 → .280 (−68)K% 28.1% → 34.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.15% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 6.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.98% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.74% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.993 | ×0.998 | 18.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.74% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.993 | ×0.998 | 7.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×0.993 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 6.72% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .349 → .280; ISO .232 → .184; BABIP .308 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAADurham Bulls · 21 PAwOBA .376 → .303 (−74)K% 19.0% → 22.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.05% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 28.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 20.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.033 | 17.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 6.57% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .376 → .303; ISO .200 → .157; BABIP .200 → .187. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 479 PAwOBA .283 → .236 (−47)K% 22.8% → 27.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.76% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.77% | ÷0.988 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 6.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.63% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.81% | ÷1.045 | ×0.920 | ×0.971 | ×1.012 | 16.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.58% | ÷0.976 | ×0.910 | ×0.971 | ×1.012 | 6.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.971 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.76% | ÷0.922 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.30% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 109, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 102, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.
Result: wOBA .283 → .236; ISO .133 → .118; BABIP .260 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 474 PAwOBA .371 → .293 (−78)K% 24.7% → 32.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.68% | ÷0.974 | ×1.270 | — | — | 32.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.35% | ÷0.974 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 10.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.21% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.51% | ÷1.036 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 18.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.68% | ÷0.992 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 7.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.43% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 1.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.73% | ÷0.867 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 5.28% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 107, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 95, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .371 → .293; ISO .210 → .174; BABIP .336 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAMidland RockHounds · 76 PAwOBA .390 → .311 (−80)K% 23.7% → 29.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.68% | ÷0.967 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 6.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 35.29% | ÷1.060 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.027 | 31.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.84% | ÷1.170 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 5.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.92% | ÷0.940 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 3.43% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 112, 2B 134, 3B 130, K 93, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .390 → .311; ISO .145 → .112; BABIP .449 → .386. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AStockton Ports · 126 PAwOBA .384 → .295 (−88)K% 23.0% → 31.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.02% | ÷0.996 | ×1.360 | — | — | 31.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.94% | ÷1.004 | ×0.690 | — | — | 5.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.58% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | ×0.957 | — | 23.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.79% | ÷1.026 | ×0.830 | ×0.957 | — | 9.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.945 | ×0.910 | ×0.957 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.65% | ÷0.945 | ×0.800 | — | — | 3.94% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 96, 2B 105, 3B 89, K 99, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.
Result: wOBA .384 → .295; ISO .200 → .150; BABIP .398 → .338. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Athletics · 24 PAwOBA .409 → .278 (−131)K% 20.8% → 29.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.83% | ÷1.018 | ×1.440 | — | — | 29.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.17% | ÷1.030 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 2.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷0.974 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 13.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.051 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 7.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.149 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.11% | ÷0.989 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 8.54% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 95, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 104, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .409 → .278; ISO .348 → .235; BABIP .312 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).