Adam Fogel — OGILVIE

Adam FogelOF Birmingham Barons

Age 27 R/R 6'5" / 220 lbs AA HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION69 act + 181 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†88

AVG/OBP/SLG.220 / .285 / .390

PA181

HR6

K%30

BB%7

BABIP286

ISO171

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$0.6M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	27	AA	CWS	—	69	61	14	4	0	4	4	22	2	1	1	230	299	492	790	262	278	32	6	328	109	+1	-0	+0	-0	+2	0.2
YTD	27	AA	CWS	—	69	59	16	5	0	4	6	17	2	1	1	271	358	559	918	288	308	25	9	387	155	+4	-0	+0	-0	+2	0.6
ROS	27	AA	CWS	2%	181	164	36	8	1	6	12	54	3	3	1	220	285	390	675	171	288	30	7	301	88	-2	+0	+0	-1	+5	0.2
ROS	27	MLB	CWS	2%	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						289	25	0	291	81	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
FULL	27	AA	CWS	—	73	65	14	4	0	4	4	23	2	1	1	215	282	462	743	246	256	32	5	326	108	+1	-0	+0	-0	+2	0.2
TOT	27	AA	CWS	—	250	225	50	12	1	10	16	76	5	4	2	222	289	418	706	196	284	30	6	308	94	-2	+0	+0	-1	+7	0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	CWS	27%	338	307	69	16	1	11	23	99	5	5	2	225	290	391	680	166	289	29	7	302	89	-4	+0	-1	-2	+10	0.3
2028	29	MLB	CWS	37%	384	348	77	17	1	12	27	111	6	6	2	221	289	379	668	158	289	29	7	301	89	-5	+0	-1	-2	+11	0.3
2029	30	MLB	CWS	43%	409	371	82	18	1	13	29	118	6	5	2	221	288	380	668	159	288	29	7	300	88	-6	+0	-2	-2	+12	0.2
2027	28	MLB	CWS	27%	91	84	18	4	0	3	6	27	1	1	1	214	275	369	644	155	290	30	7	292	82	-2	-0	-0	-1	+3	-0.0
2028	29	MLB	CWS	37%	143	130	30	7	1	5	10	41	2	2	1	231	296	415	711	185	290	29	7	292	82	-3	+0	-1	-1	+4	-0.0
2029	30	MLB	CWS	43%	176	158	37	8	1	6	13	51	3	2	1	234	305	411	716	177	289	29	7	291	81	-4	+0	-1	-1	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	414	376	85	19	2	14	29	120	6	5	3	226	292	399	691	173	291	29	7	292	81	-9	-0	-2	-2	+12	-0.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	590	134	30	3	22	46	188	9	8	5	227	293	400	693	173	292	29	7	292	81	-14	-0	-3	-4	+18	-0.2
Career	—			—	1312	1190	264	59	4	42	91	382	20	19	7	222	288	384	672	162	287	29	7	301	88	-17	+1	-4	-8	+37	0.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	590	131	29	2	21	45	189	10	9	3	222	288	385	673	163	287	29	7	301	88	-8	+1	-2	-4	+18	0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Shane Halterlast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,744 PA	5	1,744	41	11	247	305	396	-6	+8	3.9	3.9
	/162	664	16	4	247	305	396	-2.1	+3.0	1.5	pk7: 4
#3Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	8	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
	/162	664	23	9	238	296	413	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#5John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	6	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	24	7	234	298	417	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#6Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#6Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	415	13	6	225	288	388	-2	+0	0.3	0.3
	/162	664	21	9	225	288	388	-4.0	+0.0	0.5	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Adam Fogel (OGILVIE)	27	—	—	—	—	222/289/418	196	284	10	4	30%	6%	94	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chris Curley 2014 · A	26	43→53	49→50	47→45	39	223/271/366	143	279	19	10	28%	5%	76	+0.0	234/274/353	119	299	11	6	25%	4%	72	-0.2	236/275/347	111	305	9	4	25%	4%	67	-0.3
✕Miles Durham 2009 · A	26	49→50	47→50	49→50	37	242/281/383	141	315	15	12	28%	4%	84	+0.6	229/275/360	131	321	12	11	31%	5%	75	-0.0	219/269/345	126	315	11	10	32%	6%	66	-0.5
✕Sean Bouchard 2022 · AA	26	41	50→55	47→50	39	209/263/369	160	294	17	10	34%	6%	72	-0.2	219/309/394	175	294	19	14	30%	10%	98	+1.6	210/314/386	176	278	19	16	30%	12%	96	+0.7
●David Cook 2007 · A	26	39→49	51→60	49→50	47	207/285/367	161	269	19	10	30%	9%	82	+0.5	230/307/411	181	286	21	10	26%	10%	102	+1.9	234/314/428	195	279	24	10	25%	10%	107	+2.0
✕Ben Harrison 2008 · AA	26	44→50	48→50	49→50	40	221/281/357	137	303	17	10	32%	6%	77	+0.1	211/277/346	135	318	16	11	36%	7%	73	-0.1	203/274/338	136	303	17	10	37%	7%	68	-0.3
✕Michael Helman 2022 · A	26	39→41	51→55	52→55	44	205/262/364	158	247	18	14	26%	7%	71	-0.3	222/281/382	160	270	20	24	25%	7%	84	+0.6	219/280/378	159	264	21	28	25%	7%	79	+0.2
✕Alexander Palma 2021 · A	25	46	50	50→45	41	236/280/387	151	288	18	8	25%	5%	85	+0.7	224/260/370	146	270	19	5	25%	4%	71	-0.3	216/243/367	150	246	24	0	24%	3%	63	-0.5
✕David Smith 2007 · AA	26	45→51	50→55	44→45	41	231/276/384	153	290	17	6	27%	5%	82	+0.5	231/293/405	174	296	20	5	28%	7%	95	+1.4	228/298/415	187	288	22	3	28%	8%	95	+1.1
✕Ben Guez 2014 · AAA	27	45→52	49→55	46→50	44	225/297/378	153	298	17	12	29%	7%	90	+1.0	209/281/373	164	286	20	13	33%	7%	82	+0.5	193/269/365	172	251	23	13	32%	6%	71	-0.1
✕Vinny Capra 2022 · AA	26	47→50	47→45	52→50	41	230/288/371	140	317	14	10	31%	6%	83	+0.6	247/311/362	115	310	11	11	23%	8%	91	+1.1	246/313/340	94	302	9	11	20%	8%	82	+0.3
●Logan Porter 2022 · A	27	40→50	50	48→40	47	203/294/351	148	287	18	5	34%	10%	82	+0.5	226/317/367	141	316	16	3	31%	11%	95	+1.4	223/317/361	138	312	16	2	31%	11%	91	+0.8
✕Jeremy Rathjen 2015 · A	25	43→41	48→50	51→50	45	219/286/364	145	276	16	14	27%	7%	82	+0.5	206/262/337	131	281	14	9	31%	6%	64	-0.8	165/214/276	112	225	13	5	33%	5%	24	-1.5
✕Eric Arnold 2006 · A	26	44→41	51→55	47→30	37	221/274/385	164	317	19	4	36%	6%	82	+0.5	208/254/349	141	326	15	4	39%	5%	64	-0.8	185/223/325	140	294	16	0	42%	4%	43	-1.3
✕Stefan Gartrell 2011 · AAA	27	45→52	51→55	47→45	40	231/283/386	155	299	19	6	29%	6%	85	+0.7	224/281/394	170	299	22	7	32%	6%	87	+0.8	216/276/387	172	291	22	6	33%	7%	79	+0.2
✕J.T. Wise 2012 · A	26	47→49	51→50	43→30	46	240/305/399	159	310	19	3	28%	8%	98	+1.6	221/286/354	133	325	13	3	33%	8%	79	+0.3	212/277/343	131	316	12	0	35%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Weston Wilson 2021 · AA	26	38→43	48→55	48→55	42	200/258/333	133	262	16	10	30%	7%	61	-1.0	219/283/390	171	289	23	18	31%	8%	87	+0.8	212/291/397	185	265	26	25	30%	9%	90	+0.7
✕Cole Garner 2012 · AAA	27	46→50	48→55	49→50	38	233/279/381	149	302	15	11	28%	4%	82	+0.5	198/243/321	123	315	14	8	40%	5%	51	-1.7	194/235/326	132	306	18	7	41%	4%	47	-0.7
✕Devlin Granberg 2022 · AA	26	46→44	52→45	48→45	41	239/291/405	166	284	20	7	24%	5%	94	+1.3	237/301/367	130	295	12	10	23%	6%	89	+0.9	235/311/339	104	302	6	11	22%	6%	80	+0.2
✕Shane Selman 2022 · A	25	45	48→60	45	47	220/300/361	141	313	16	8	33%	10%	86	+0.8	208/277/381	173	308	22	7	38%	7%	82	+0.5	173/241/379	206	235	30	3	41%	6%	65	-0.4
✕Alex Frazier 2006 · A	25	42→39	52→55	44→45	44	220/295/384	164	279	20	6	28%	8%	91	+1.1	209/262/337	128	285	15	5	31%	5%	64	-0.8	187/225/297	110	255	14	1	32%	3%	36	-1.5