Adam Fogel — OGILVIE

Adam FogelOF Birmingham Barons

Age 27 R/R 6'5" / 220 lbs AA HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION108 act + 16 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†89

AVG/OBP/SLG.267 / .312 / .533

PA16

HR0

K%31

BB%6

BABIP288

ISO267

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
YTD	27	AA MLE	CWS	—	108	96	23	6	0	6	7	31	2	2	1	240	305	490	794	250	279	29	6	331	110	+1	+0	+0	-1	+2	0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	ROK RAW	CWS	—	17	13	6	1	0	2	3	1	0	1	0	462	562	1.000	1.562	538	364	6	18	603	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	27	AA RAW	CWS	—	91	80	20	6	0	5	7	24	2	1	1	250	326	512	838	262	288	26	8	358	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	27	AA MLE	CWS	2%	16	15	4	1	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	267	312	533	846	267	287	31	6	300	89	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
TOT	27	AA MLE	CWS	—	124	111	27	7	0	7	8	36	2	2	1	243	306	495	801	252	286	29	6	327	107	+1	+0	+0	-1	+3	0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	CWS	27%	338	309	70	15	1	11	22	94	4	4	1	227	287	388	675	162	287	28	7	300	89	-4	+0	-1	-2	+7	0.1
2028	29	MLB MLE	CWS	37%	384	350	79	17	1	12	26	105	5	4	1	226	289	383	672	157	287	27	7	300	89	-5	+0	-1	-2	+8	0.0
2029	30	MLB MLE	CWS	43%	409	373	84	18	2	12	28	112	5	4	1	225	288	381	669	155	286	27	7	299	88	-6	+0	-2	-2	+9	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	CWS	27%	91	84	19	4	0	3	6	25	1	1	0	226	286	381	667	155	288	27	7	293	89	-1	+0	-0	-1	+2	0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	CWS	37%	143	130	30	6	1	5	10	39	2	1	1	231	296	408	703	177	288	27	7	293	89	-2	-0	-1	-1	+3	-0.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	CWS	43%	176	160	37	8	1	5	12	48	2	2	1	231	293	388	681	156	287	27	7	292	88	-2	+0	-1	-1	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	410	374	86	18	2	13	28	112	5	4	2	230	292	393	685	163	291	27	7	292	89	-5	+0	-2	-2	+9	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	137	29	3	21	44	178	8	6	3	231	293	396	689	165	292	27	7	292	89	-9	+0	-3	-4	+14	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	1147	1047	237	51	4	36	77	316	14	12	3	226	288	386	674	160	287	28	7	300	89	-15	+1	-4	-7	+25	-0.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	134	29	2	20	44	179	8	7	2	226	288	383	671	157	287	28	7	300	89	-9	+1	-2	-4	+14	-0.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Chad Pinderlast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA	2.6	1,740	62	5	242	294	417	-17	-20	0.6	0.6
/162	664	24	2	-6.5	-7.6	0.2	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.6	415	13	4	228	287	387	-2	+0	0.3	0.3
/162	664	21	7	-4.0	+0.0	0.4	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Adam Fogel (OGILVIE)	27	—	—	—	—	225/284/388	164	287	8	3	28%	6%	89	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chris Curley 2014 · A	26	44→54	50	47→45	39	230/279/379	149	288	19	10	27%	5%	84	+0.2	236/277/352	116	296	11	6	23%	4%	76	-0.4	237/277/342	104	299	8	4	23%	4%	70	-0.5
✕Matt Carson 2008 · AA	27	42→50	46→60	50	40	214/264/345	131	270	14	9	26%	5%	71	-0.8	230/276/390	160	280	18	13	24%	5%	85	+0.2	226/275/415	188	271	23	16	26%	5%	89	+0.4
✕Derek Campbell 2017 · A	26	42	46→60	45	37	211/270/337	126	271	13	6	27%	4%	72	-0.7	217/272/331	114	296	11	6	29%	5%	70	-0.8	201/247/285	84	283	8	0	31%	4%	46	-0.7
✕David Cook 2007 · A	26	39→49	51→55	49→50	47	207/285/367	161	269	19	10	30%	9%	84	+0.2	228/306/399	171	285	20	10	26%	10%	99	+1.2	231/311/411	181	277	21	10	24%	10%	102	+1.3
✕Jake Scheiner 2021 · A	25	44→52	50→55	44→40	41	228/277/380	152	286	17	6	27%	5%	83	+0.1	217/286/380	163	289	19	4	30%	8%	87	+0.4	208/286/375	167	269	21	3	30%	9%	85	+0.2
✕Devlin Granberg 2022 · AA	26	47→45	49→45	48→45	41	239/292/391	151	288	17	7	23%	5%	92	+0.7	238/303/362	124	299	10	10	23%	6%	88	+0.5	239/315/344	104	308	5	11	22%	6%	84	+0.1
✕Sean Bouchard 2022 · AA	26	42→44	49→55	47→50	39	214/267/368	155	297	15	10	33%	6%	77	-0.3	228/315/410	182	304	20	14	30%	10%	105	+1.7	223/323/414	192	292	21	16	29%	12%	107	+0.9
✕Logan Porter 2022 · A	27	40→50	50→45	48→40	46	206/295/354	148	293	18	5	34%	10%	85	+0.2	224/315/352	128	313	14	3	30%	11%	92	+0.7	220/314/342	122	308	14	2	30%	11%	87	+0.3
✕Aderlin Rodríguez 2019 · AA	27	47→48	50→55	43→30	39	242/282/389	147	292	19	2	24%	4%	87	+0.4	240/285/419	179	288	23	3	25%	4%	96	+1.0	224/276/418	194	273	26	1	28%	5%	90	+0.3
✕David Smith 2008 · AA	27	45→51	51→55	41→45	43	231/285/393	162	281	18	5	25%	6%	90	+0.6	230/297/387	157	302	16	6	28%	8%	93	+0.8	223/301/386	162	301	16	2	29%	9%	90	+0.4
✕Brian Van Kirk 2013 · AA	27	47→51	45	45	46	233/295/355	122	294	12	7	24%	7%	84	+0.2	236/308/327	91	302	7	8	22%	9%	82	+0.0	252/348/314	62	309	3	5	17%	13%	91	+0.3
✕Ben Harrison 2008 · AA	26	44→50	48→50	49→50	40	220/280/354	134	302	16	10	32%	6%	79	-0.2	212/278/341	129	317	15	11	36%	7%	75	-0.5	204/276/333	128	303	15	10	36%	8%	71	-0.5
✕Eric Arnold 2006 · A	26	44→41	51→55	47→30	37	221/274/385	164	317	19	4	36%	6%	84	+0.1	209/255/348	139	325	15	4	38%	5%	68	-1.0	187/224/323	136	294	15	0	41%	4%	49	-1.4
●Dennis Raben 2014 · A	27	45→42	50→60	45→40	44	230/294/384	154	288	19	5	27%	7%	91	+0.7	246/299/469	223	294	33	6	28%	6%	114	+2.3	250/298/524	275	278	45	3	29%	5%	126	+2.4
✕Alexander Palma 2021 · A	25	46	50	50→45	41	237/281/388	151	289	18	8	25%	5%	87	+0.4	222/258/352	130	267	16	5	23%	4%	70	-0.9	215/242/345	130	246	19	0	22%	3%	61	-0.9
●Reynaldo Rodriguez 2012 · AA	26	43→46	49→55	51→50	42	220/280/375	155	278	15	12	27%	6%	84	+0.1	211/265/381	170	261	18	8	26%	6%	80	-0.2	233/278/405	172	262	21	11	20%	6%	88	+0.3
✕Miles Durham 2009 · A	26	49→50	47→50	49→50	37	242/281/383	141	315	15	12	28%	4%	86	+0.3	228/273/352	124	316	11	11	30%	5%	75	-0.5	218/266/334	116	310	9	10	31%	5%	66	-1.0
✕Ryan Mulhern 2007 · AA	26	45→48	52→55	46→40	40	232/285/401	169	307	20	4	31%	6%	92	+0.7	221/274/353	132	305	14	3	31%	6%	76	-0.4	246/301/422	176	304	21	3	26%	5%	100	+0.5
✕Jerad Head 2009 · A	26	40→44	46→50	50	41	206/269/341	135	253	13	12	25%	5%	72	-0.7	229/280/371	142	286	14	8	25%	4%	83	+0.1	230/277/376	146	286	15	5	25%	4%	80	-0.1
✕Kyle Garlick 2018 · AA	26	44→50	50→60	47→40	37	224/274/379	155	308	17	3	33%	5%	82	+0.0	210/256/382	172	304	22	4	37%	5%	77	-0.3	224/281/451	227	289	31	2	34%	6%	100	+0.5

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps