Amos Willingham
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
+0.0
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 223 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA5.39
FIP4.55
xFIP4.19
SIERA3.75
K%21.5%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%12.6%
IP42
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL5050
CMD3030
K†5055
FB Velo
p6895.8
Whiff%
p2221.3%
K%
p1012.9%
xwOBA vs
p100.394
FB (65%)
CT (20%)
SL-1.2 (15%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 29 | 0 | 60 | 267 | 56 | 24 | 10 | 15.7% | 10.5% | 4.8% | 4.92 | 5.73 | -0.5 |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 29 | 0 | 34 | 145 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 21.2% | 5.6% | 0.8% | 3.41 | 2.42 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 46 | 0 | 60 | 262 | 51 | 20 | 9 | 15.5% | 8.8% | 4.1% | 3.90 | 5.19 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 56 | 0 | 69 | 298 | 72 | 27 | 6 | 21.3% | 9.7% | 1.9% | 3.89 | 3.57 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 34 | 3 | 56 | 247 | 64 | 18 | 11 | 20.9% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 5.17 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 6 | 0 | 8 | 27 | 6 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | HOU | 42 | — | 42 | 175 | 39 | 18 | 6 | 22.0% | 10.2% | 3.5% | 5.80 | 4.84 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 49 | 202 | 45 | 22 | 6 | 22.0% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.90 | 4.09 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 38 | 17 | 6 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 5.19 | 4.82 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 37 | 17 | 6 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 4.97 | 4.86 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 39 | — | 39 | 164 | 35 | 17 | 6 | 21.2% | 10.2% | 3.5% | 4.93 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 37 | — | 37 | 158 | 33 | 16 | 6 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 3.6% | 4.97 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 30 | 16 | 6 | 20.1% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 5.06 | 5.12 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 28 | 15 | 5 | 19.4% | 10.6% | 3.8% | 5.18 | 5.25 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 26 | 15 | 5 | 18.7% | 10.8% | 3.9% | 5.31 | 5.39 | -0.2 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 23 | 14 | 5 | 18.0% | 11.0% | 4.0% | 5.45 | 5.54 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 29 | — | 29 | 121 | 21 | 14 | 5 | 17.2% | 11.3% | 4.1% | 5.60 | 5.71 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 200 | 3 | 287 | 1246 | 234 | 111 | 43 | 18.8% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 4.20 | 4.54 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 139 | 2 | 200 | 867 | 163 | 77 | 30 | 18.8% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 4.20 | 4.54 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Amos Willingham (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.84 | 22.0% | 10.2% | 3.5% | — | 4.87 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 120 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| José Cisnero R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.50 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.9% | .367 | 3.92 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.58 | 2.26 | 279 | 81 |
| Heath Hembree R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .292 | 4.09 | 27.3% | 18.8% | 162 | +0.40 | 2.67 | 382 | 81 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 79 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.00 | 22.2% | 11.4% | 4.2% | .256 | 4.51 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 39 | -0.49 | 2.65 | 315 | 78 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.12 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 3.0% | .339 | 3.39 | 23.5% | 12.8% | 29 | -0.73 | 3.11 | 166 | 77 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.55 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .325 | 4.15 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 153 | -0.40 | 4.02 | 328 | 77 |
| Kevin Ginkel R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.25 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 5.1% | .299 | 2.51 | 27.4% | 19.8% | 195 | -2.74 | 2.37 | 393 | 77 |
| Juan Ramon Noriega R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .243 | 3.46 | 24.8% | 17.1% | 57 | -1.00 | 3.46 | 198 | 77 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .355 | 4.49 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | -0.08 | 3.70 | 187 | 76 |
| Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 76 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 76 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.81 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 4.2% | .341 | 4.59 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 71 | -0.22 | 3.74 | 223 | 76 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.09 | 20.3% | 12.3% | 3.9% | .191 | 4.26 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 131 | -0.83 | 2.39 | 676 | 75 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.80 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .295 | 3.70 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.10 | 3.17 | 269 | 75 |
| Jay Flaa R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.70 | 19.4% | 9.8% | 3.6% | .300 | 4.86 | 22.8% | 4.7% | 36 | +0.16 | 3.62 | 273 | 75 |
| Hunter Parsons R 2025 · 4.93 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.93 | 22.8% | 10.9% | 4.3% | .274 | 6.70 | 25.5% | 9.0% | 29 | +1.77 | 4.76 | 183 | 75 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.82 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .230 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 149 | 75 |
| Pierce Johnson R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.93 | 22.4% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .269 | 2.95 | 32.2% | 22.0% | 79 | -0.98 | 2.65 | 550 | 75 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 3.5% | .417 | 2.29 | 18.7% | 12.7% | 59 | -2.01 | 1.94 | 131 | 75 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.