Amos Willingham — OGILVIE

Amos Willingham P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 223 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 55 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.99

FIP4.91

K%20.0%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%10.6%

ROS IP56

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD3030

K†4550

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6895.8

Whiff%

p2221.3%

p1012.9%

xwOBA vs

p100.394

FB (65%)

CT (20%)

SL-1.2 (15%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	60	267	56	24	10	0%	2.1	15.7%	10.5%	5.1%	4.8%	4.92	5.73	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	60	267	56	24	10	0%	2.1	21.0%	9.0%	12.0%	3.7%	4.92	4.59	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	29	0	34	145	40	7	1	0%	1.2	21.2%	5.6%	15.7%	0.8%	3.41	2.43	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	29	0	34	145	40	7	1	0%	1.2	27.6%	4.8%	22.8%	0.7%	3.41	1.76	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	0	60	262	51	20	9	0%	1.3	15.0%	8.0%	7.0%	4.1%	3.90	5.09	-0.4
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	0	60	262	51	20	9	0%	1.3	15.0%	8.0%	7.0%	4.1%	3.90	5.09	-0.4
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	46	0	60	262	51	20	9	0%	1.3	19.5%	7.6%	11.8%	3.4%	3.90	4.35	+0.1
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	69	298	72	27	6	0%	1.2	20.1%	8.3%	11.8%	1.9%	3.89	3.50	+0.9
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	69	298	72	27	6	0%	1.2	20.1%	8.3%	11.8%	1.9%	3.89	3.50	+0.9
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	0	69	298	72	27	6	0%	1.2	24.2%	9.1%	15.1%	2.0%	3.89	3.32	+1.0
2025	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	34	3	56	247	64	18	11	9%	1.6	20.9%	7.6%	13.4%	5.2%	5.17	5.13	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	34	3	56	247	64	18	11	9%	1.6	20.9%	7.6%	13.4%	5.2%	5.17	5.13	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	34	3	56	247	64	18	11	9%	1.6	25.9%	7.3%	18.6%	4.5%	5.17	4.34	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			19	0	25	121	16	7	9	0%	1.3	13.2%	5.8%	7.4%	7.4%	7.11	7.28	-0.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	36	1	51	232	45	35	6	3%	1.4	16.1%	13.6%	2.5%	2.8%	4.94	5.02	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	36	1	51	232	45	35	6	3%	1.4	16.1%	13.6%	2.5%	2.8%	4.94	5.02	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	MIA	36	1	51	232	45	35	6	3%	1.4	19.4%	15.1%	4.3%	2.6%	4.94	4.79	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	MIA	52	0	54	229	46	22	8	0%	1.0	20.2%	9.5%	10.7%	3.6%	4.94	4.94	-0.2
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIA	49	0	52	219	43	21	8	0%	1.1	19.9%	9.7%	10.1%	3.7%	4.99	5.05	-0.3
2027	28	MLB CTX	MIA	22	0	23	97	20	9	3	0%	1.0	20.2%	9.5%	10.7%	3.6%	4.94	4.94	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIA	30	0	31	131	26	13	5	0%	1.0	19.9%	9.7%	10.1%	3.7%	4.99	5.05	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		70	0	79	347	61	29	17	0%	1.1	17.6%	8.3%	9.3%	5.0%	5.65	5.38	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		177	0	200	880	155	73	43	0%	1.1	17.6%	8.3%	9.3%	5.0%	5.65	5.38	-1.9
Career	—	MLE		230	4	331	1451	261	132	50	2%	1.4	18.0%	9.1%	8.9%	3.4%	4.41	4.61	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		139	2	200	878	158	80	30	2%	1.4	18.0%	9.1%	8.9%	3.4%	4.41	4.61	-2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Amos Willingham (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	20.0%	9.4%	3.5%	—	4.99	20.0%	10.4%	106	+0.08	—	—	—
Heath Hembree R 2016 · 3.74 FIP	27	SU	3.74	21.1%	7.2%	2.8%	.292	4.03	27.3%	18.8%	162	+0.29	2.58	382	86
José A. Váldez R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	27	SU	4.39	21.6%	8.3%	3.8%	.325	4.15	18.8%	6.4%	153	-0.24	4.02	328	81
Dugan Darnell R 2023 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	22.6%	9.6%	4.1%	.302	3.25	23.1%	15.4%	94	-1.39	2.50	238	81
Jay Flaa R 2019 · 4.66 FIP	27	SU	4.66	19.4%	9.8%	3.6%	.300	4.86	22.8%	4.7%	36	+0.20	3.59	273	80
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	80
Austin Ross R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	27	SU	3.81	22.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.295	3.67	12.4%	5.2%	127	-0.14	3.16	269	79
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	79
Bo Schultz R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SU	4.30	18.3%	7.9%	3.2%	.218	3.49	15.1%	8.9%	77	-0.81	2.73	141	78
Michael Dimock R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	27	SU	4.12	18.9%	7.8%	2.9%	.339	3.37	23.5%	12.8%	29	-0.75	3.08	166	78
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	78
Nolan Clenney R 2023 · 4.79 FIP	27	SU	4.79	22.6%	10.1%	4.2%	.341	4.58	17.2%	7.5%	71	-0.21	3.73	223	78
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	78
Hunter Parsons R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	26	SU	4.88	22.0%	10.0%	4.3%	.274	6.70	25.5%	9.0%	29	+1.82	4.73	183	78
Michael Mariot R 2016 · 5.00 FIP	27	SU	5.00	20.3%	12.3%	3.8%	.191	4.24	21.6%	12.6%	131	-0.76	2.40	676	78
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	77
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	77
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	201	77
Pierce Johnson R 2018 · 3.92 FIP	27	SU	3.92	22.4%	11.3%	2.3%	.269	3.00	32.2%	22.0%	79	-0.92	2.75	593	77
Andrew Robinson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	17.6%	6.3%	2.5%	.246	3.64	22.7%	14.4%	97	-0.13	3.19	160	77
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2018 · 5.07 FIP	27	SU	5.07	22.2%	11.4%	4.4%	.256	4.43	23.3%	9.7%	39	-0.64	2.64	315	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	20.0%	9.6%	1.39	4.97
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50