Jonatan Bernal

P Reno Aces

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 194 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	16	15	63	3.88	3.44	20.1%	5.9%	—	K 14.0% · BB 6.2% · FIP 4.55
2025	23	MIX2 levels	21	8	72	4.98	4.54	16.3%	6.7%	—	K 12.9% · BB 7.5% · FIP 4.75
2026	24	MIX3 levels	40	3	78	4.37	3.85	22.1%	10.1%	—	K 17.4% · BB 10.1% · FIP 4.54
2027PROJ	25	MLBARI	67	0	70	5.26	5.26	13.2%	10.1%	-0.5
2028PROJ48% MLB	26	MLBARI	32	0	34	5.12	5.09	15.1%	9.9%	-0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	27	MLBARI	44	0	46	5.06	5.07	15.7%	10.0%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control55Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsDennis O'Grady (age 26) · Dakota Hawkins (age 24) · Hunter Adkins (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.26

FIP5.26

K%13.2%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%3.2%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5555

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	9	8	33	133	21	5	3	89%	3.7	10.7%	4.7%	6.0%	3.2%	3.27	4.52	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	9	8	33	133	21	5	3	89%	3.7	15.8%	3.8%	12.0%	2.3%	3.27	3.46	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	12	9	43	195	35	12	6	75%	3.6	12.2%	7.7%	4.5%	4.3%	4.43	5.41	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	12	9	43	195	35	12	6	75%	3.6	17.9%	6.2%	11.8%	3.1%	4.43	4.13	—
2022	20	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	23	11	91	398	74	30	9	48%	4.0	13.8%	8.9%	4.9%	2.6%	5.14	4.48	—
2022	20	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	23	11	91	398	74	30	9	48%	4.0	18.6%	7.5%	11.1%	2.3%	5.14	3.75	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	15	63	254	51	15	6	94%	3.9	14.0%	6.2%	7.7%	3.4%	3.88	4.55	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	15	63	254	51	15	6	94%	3.9	14.0%	6.2%	7.7%	3.4%	3.88	4.55	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	15	63	254	51	15	6	94%	3.9	20.1%	5.9%	14.2%	2.4%	3.88	3.44	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	8	72	312	51	21	11	38%	3.4	12.9%	7.5%	5.5%	3.3%	4.98	4.75	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	8	72	312	51	21	11	38%	3.4	12.9%	7.5%	5.5%	3.3%	4.98	4.75	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	8	72	312	51	21	11	38%	3.4	16.3%	6.7%	9.6%	3.5%	4.98	4.54	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	3	78	326	72	33	8	8%	2.0	17.4%	10.1%	7.3%	3.0%	4.37	4.54	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	3	78	326	72	33	8	8%	2.0	17.4%	10.1%	7.3%	3.0%	4.37	4.54	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	3	78	326	72	33	8	8%	2.0	22.1%	10.1%	12.0%	2.5%	4.37	3.85	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	ARI	67	0	70	296	39	30	9	0%	1.0	13.2%	10.1%	3.2%	3.0%	5.26	5.26	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	ARI	67	0	70	298	45	30	9	0%	1.1	15.1%	9.9%	5.2%	3.0%	5.12	5.09	-0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	ARI	66	0	69	293	46	29	9	0%	1.1	15.7%	10.0%	5.8%	3.0%	5.06	5.07	-0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	ARI	64	0	67	284	45	29	9	0%	1.1	16.0%	10.1%	5.9%	3.1%	5.08	5.11	-0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	ARI	61	0	64	271	43	28	9	0%	1.1	15.9%	10.3%	5.7%	3.3%	5.16	5.22	-0.5
2028	26	MLB CTX	ARI	32	0	34	144	22	14	4	0%	1.1	15.1%	9.9%	5.2%	3.0%	5.12	5.09	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	ARI	44	0	46	194	31	19	6	0%	1.0	15.7%	10.0%	5.8%	3.0%	5.06	5.07	-0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	ARI	50	0	52	220	35	22	7	0%	1.0	16.0%	10.1%	5.9%	3.1%	5.08	5.11	-0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	ARI	50	0	53	224	36	23	7	0%	1.1	15.9%	10.3%	5.7%	3.3%	5.16	5.22	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		176	0	185	781	123	79	24	0%	1.1	15.8%	10.1%	5.7%	3.1%	5.11	4.75	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	133	85	26	0%	1.1	15.8%	10.1%	5.7%	3.1%	5.11	4.75	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		121	54	380	1618	225	129	51	45%	3.1	13.9%	8.0%	6.0%	3.2%	4.50	4.67	-1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	28	200	852	119	68	27	45%	3.1	13.9%	8.0%	6.0%	3.2%	4.50	4.67	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jonatan Bernal (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.26	13.2%	10.1%	3.0%	—	5.09	15.6%	5.6%	207	-0.17	—	—	—
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	89
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	86
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	86
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	86
Tyler Santana R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	25	SW	4.43	15.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.306	5.01	15.0%	4.8%	193	+0.58	3.37	401	85
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	85
Marco Camarena R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	25	SW	4.49	11.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.365	3.75	8.4%	0.9%	73	-0.74	3.75	142	84
Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	15.6%	9.5%	3.4%	.354	3.77	20.2%	10.8%	111	-1.07	3.73	186	84
Raymar Navarro R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	13.1%	11.7%	1.5%	.332	4.29	11.8%	1.0%	41	-0.01	4.29	108	84
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	84
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	83
Brad Allen R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	26	SW	4.25	14.0%	12.6%	1.3%	.315	5.82	14.7%	1.5%	87	+1.57	4.25	149	83
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	83
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	82
Lance Cormier R 2006 · 4.55 FIP	25	SW	4.55	12.9%	9.6%	2.4%	.328	4.73	12.7%	4.2%	195	+0.18	3.80	469	82
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	82
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	81
Aaron Northcraft R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	25	SW	4.37	13.6%	10.2%	2.1%	.286	4.19	16.1%	7.8%	91	-0.18	3.32	252	81
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	81
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	15.2%	10.0%	1.18	5.14
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Luther Hackman ('03)	1.1	71	13.3%	10.9%	1.10	5.09
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Russ Swan ('89-'94, -2 WAR*)	1.3	89	12.3%*	9.9%*	1.13*	5.09*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*