Luke Murphy — OGILVIE

Luke Murphy P Rocket City Trash Pandas

Age 26 RHP 6'5" / 190 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.31

FIP4.31

K%20.8%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%11.7%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6795.7

Whiff%

p3322.9%

p6124.2%

xwOBA vs

p520.310

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	7	0	9	35	15	1	0	0%	1.3	42.9%	2.9%	40.0%	0.0%	3.00	-0.16	—
2021	21	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	7	0	9	35	15	1	0	0%	1.3	42.9%	2.9%	40.0%	0.0%	3.00	0.10	—
2022	22	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	37	0	45	181	52	26	0	0%	1.2	23.3%	15.8%	7.5%	0.0%	2.62	3.14	—
2022	22	AA RAW	Rocket City Trash Pandas	37	0	45	181	52	26	0	0%	1.2	28.7%	14.4%	14.4%	0.0%	2.62	2.52	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	44	1	49	223	62	27	4	2%	1.1	22.5%	13.3%	9.2%	2.2%	4.96	4.10	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	44	1	49	223	62	27	4	2%	1.1	22.5%	13.3%	9.2%	2.2%	4.96	4.10	—
2023	23	AA RAW	Rocket City Trash Pandas	44	1	49	223	62	27	4	2%	1.1	27.8%	12.1%	15.7%	1.8%	4.96	3.28	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	53	229	67	15	5	0%	1.2	23.2%	7.3%	15.9%	2.7%	3.54	3.54	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	53	229	67	15	5	0%	1.2	23.2%	7.3%	15.9%	2.7%	3.54	3.54	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	53	229	67	15	5	0%	1.2	29.3%	6.6%	22.7%	2.2%	3.54	2.65	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	2	45	229	50	23	9	5%	1.2	17.9%	9.4%	8.6%	4.4%	9.33	5.20	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	2	45	229	50	23	9	5%	1.2	17.9%	9.4%	8.6%	4.4%	9.33	5.20	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	2	45	229	50	23	9	5%	1.2	21.8%	10.0%	11.8%	3.9%	9.33	5.00	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			15	0	15	62	15	9	1	0%	1.0	24.2%	14.5%	9.7%	1.6%	4.20	3.77	+0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	49	0	53	209	62	18	2	0%	1.1	25.4%	9.0%	16.3%	1.0%	1.70	2.67	—
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	49	0	53	209	62	18	2	0%	1.1	25.4%	9.0%	16.3%	1.0%	1.70	2.67	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	LAA	34	0	38	147	47	9	1	0%	1.1	32.0%	6.1%	25.9%	0.7%	0.71	1.55	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	LAA	15	0	15	62	15	9	1	0%	1.0	24.2%	14.5%	9.7%	1.6%	4.20	3.78	+0.1
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	LAA	15	0	15	62	15	9	1	0%	1.0	24.2%	14.5%	9.7%	1.6%	4.20	3.78	+0.1
ROS	26	MLB MLE	LAA	2	0	3	11	2	1	0	0%	1.3	20.8%	9.1%	11.7%	3.3%	4.31	4.31	+0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	LAA	3	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.0	20.8%	9.1%	11.7%	3.3%	4.31	4.31	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	LAA	—	—	56	220	64	19	2	—	—	29.2%	8.6%	20.6%	1.1%	1.82	2.75	+1.3
FULL	26	MLB A+C	LAA	—	—	18	74	64	19	2	—	—	86.5%	25.6%	61.0%	3.2%	5.75	0.78	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	LAA	49	0	51	216	44	21	7	0%	1.0	20.5%	10.0%	10.6%	3.2%	4.76	4.77	-0.1
2028	28	MLB MLE	LAA	47	0	50	209	43	21	7	0%	1.1	20.6%	10.1%	10.5%	3.3%	4.79	4.82	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	LAA	47	0	49	207	42	21	7	0%	1.0	20.5%	10.0%	10.6%	3.2%	4.76	4.77	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	LAA	45	0	47	198	41	20	7	0%	1.0	20.6%	10.1%	10.5%	3.3%	4.79	4.82	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		109	0	113	477	100	50	15	0%	1.0	21.0%	10.6%	10.5%	3.0%	4.69	4.33	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		192	0	200	842	177	88	26	0%	1.0	21.0%	10.6%	10.5%	3.0%	4.69	4.33	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		217	3	254	1106	255	116	23	1%	1.2	23.0%	10.5%	12.5%	2.1%	4.28	3.65	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		171	2	200	870	200	92	18	1%	1.2	23.0%	10.5%	12.5%	2.1%	4.28	3.65	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Murphy (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	19.4%	9.2%	3.4%	—	4.79	20.6%	10.5%	101	-0.07	—	—	—
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	86
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	85
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	85
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	85
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	84
Shawn Armstrong R 2017 · 4.21 FIP	26	SU	4.21	22.1%	9.2%	3.3%	.282	3.18	26.9%	17.2%	144	-1.03	1.79	651	83
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	83
Colton Murray R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	26	SU	3.97	21.2%	9.4%	2.7%	.295	4.27	21.8%	13.1%	41	+0.30	3.34	187	83
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	83
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	83
Juan Ramon Noriega R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	26	SU	4.45	21.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.243	3.44	24.8%	17.1%	57	-1.01	3.44	198	83
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	201	83
Kyle Winkler R 2016 · 3.70 FIP	26	SU	3.70	23.1%	8.7%	2.6%	.234	3.53	18.4%	8.3%	43	-0.17	2.97	114	83
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	83
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	82
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	82
Hunter Parsons R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	26	SU	4.88	22.0%	10.0%	4.3%	.274	6.70	25.5%	9.0%	29	+1.82	4.73	183	82
Jake Barrett R 2017 · 5.20 FIP	26	SU	5.20	20.1%	11.5%	4.2%	.267	2.90	26.9%	15.2%	69	-2.30	1.48	230	82
Brad Goldberg R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	26	SU	3.83	18.1%	10.8%	1.6%	.269	3.87	23.3%	7.2%	89	+0.04	3.14	197	82
Carlos Gonzalez R 2016 · 3.78 FIP	26	SU	3.78	18.2%	8.7%	2.0%	.266	4.37	14.3%	2.3%	36	+0.59	3.75	154	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	43	20.3%	9.8%	1.27	4.79
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78