Luke Murphy
P
Rocket City Trash Pandas
Age 26
RHP
6'5" / 190 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION33 act + 29 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 110
ERA4.83
FIP4.83
K%21.1%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%11.1%
ROS IP29
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 7 | 0 | 9 | 35 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 42.9% | 2.9% | 40.0% | 0.0% | 3.00 | -0.16 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 7 | 0 | 9 | 35 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 42.9% | 2.9% | 40.0% | 0.0% | 3.00 | 0.10 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 37 | 0 | 45 | 181 | 52 | 26 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.3% | 15.8% | 7.5% | 0.0% | 2.62 | 3.14 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 37 | 0 | 45 | 181 | 52 | 26 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.7% | 14.4% | 14.4% | 0.0% | 2.62 | 2.52 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 44 | 1 | 49 | 223 | 62 | 27 | 4 | 2% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 13.3% | 9.2% | 2.3% | 4.96 | 4.14 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 44 | 1 | 49 | 223 | 62 | 27 | 4 | 2% | 1.1 | 27.8% | 12.1% | 15.7% | 1.8% | 4.96 | 3.28 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 53 | 229 | 67 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 15.9% | 2.8% | 3.54 | 3.58 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 53 | 229 | 67 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 29.3% | 6.6% | 22.7% | 2.2% | 3.54 | 2.65 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 2 | 45 | 229 | 50 | 23 | 9 | 5% | 1.2 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 4.4% | 9.33 | 5.31 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 2 | 45 | 229 | 50 | 23 | 9 | 5% | 1.2 | 21.8% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 3.9% | 9.33 | 5.00 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 30 | 0 | 33 | 128 | 43 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.2% | 7.7% | 19.5% | 0.0% | 0.55 | 1.78 | +1.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | LAA | 27 | 0 | 29 | 121 | 25 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 3.4% | 4.83 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | LAA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 3.4% | 4.83 | 4.83 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 62 | 249 | 68 | 21 | 4 | — | — | 27.5% | 8.5% | 19.1% | 1.6% | 2.53 | 3.20 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 21.1% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 3.4% | 4.83 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 27 | 0 | 28 | 119 | 25 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 4.80 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 4.80 | 4.81 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 0 | 11 | 47 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 4.80 | 4.43 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 179 | 90 | 36 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 4.80 | 4.43 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 198 | 3 | 234 | 1025 | 238 | 110 | 22 | 2% | 1.2 | 23.2% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 2.1% | 4.34 | 3.66 | +4.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 169 | 3 | 200 | 875 | 203 | 94 | 18 | 2% | 1.2 | 23.2% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 2.1% | 4.34 | 3.66 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luke Murphy (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.83 | 21.1% | 10.0% | 3.4% | — | 4.81 | 21.3% | 11.3% | 28 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.34 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .273 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.18 | 3.57 | 187 | 87 |
| Jack Hartman R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.36 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 3.5% | .310 | 4.40 | 17.6% | 5.6% | 46 | +0.04 | 3.42 | 161 | 87 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.80 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 4.41 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.74 | 185 | 87 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 87 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.02 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.56 | 2.69 | 315 | 87 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.11 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.1% | .282 | 3.23 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -0.88 | 1.79 | 647 | 87 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 121 | 85 |
| Juan Ramon Noriega R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.52 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .243 | 3.63 | 24.8% | 17.1% | 57 | -0.89 | 3.56 | 198 | 85 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.15 | 3.43 | 187 | 84 |
| Ryan Middendorf R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.24 | 19.6% | 10.5% | 4.5% | .293 | 4.39 | 12.8% | -1.5% | 34 | -0.85 | 1.27 | 164 | 84 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.16 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.34 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.18 | 3.78 | 180 | 84 |
| Carter Rustad R 2025 · 4.84 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.84 | 19.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 101 | 84 |
| Hunter Parsons R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.03 | 22.8% | 10.9% | 4.5% | .274 | 6.73 | 25.5% | 9.0% | 29 | +1.70 | 4.95 | 183 | 84 |
| Zach Bryant R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.82 | 18.0% | 9.6% | 3.7% | .313 | 4.72 | 17.8% | 6.9% | 84 | -0.10 | 4.36 | 194 | 83 |
| Jason Ruffcorn R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .255 | 4.64 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 100 | +0.67 | 3.97 | 248 | 83 |
| Cale Coshow R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 23.1% | 10.9% | 3.6% | .300 | 3.61 | 23.0% | 12.8% | 63 | -0.90 | 3.16 | 377 | 83 |
| Kelly Austin R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.58 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 4.1% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 119 | 83 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.77 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .242 | 3.56 | 22.5% | 12.4% | 100 | -0.21 | 3.05 | 205 | 83 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.94 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 83 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.75 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .292 | 4.81 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +1.06 | 3.75 | 299 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 28 | 21.2% | 10.0% | 1.32 | 4.82 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |