Dwayne Matos — OGILVIE

Dwayne Matos P Lake County Captains

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs A+

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 19 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.16

FIP5.16

K%16.9%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%5.5%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	18	7	46	189	31	6	2	39%	2.5	11.2%	4.0%	7.2%	1.5%	3.74	3.47	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres	18	7	46	189	31	6	2	39%	2.5	16.4%	3.2%	13.2%	1.1%	3.74	2.71	—
2021	20	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	20	15	77	340	55	20	9	75%	3.9	12.0%	6.9%	5.0%	4.2%	5.12	5.29	—
2021	20	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	20	15	77	340	55	20	9	75%	3.9	16.2%	5.9%	10.3%	2.6%	5.12	3.97	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	11	70	341	51	37	15	52%	3.3	11.6%	12.3%	-0.7%	6.0%	7.29	6.97	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	11	70	341	51	37	15	52%	3.3	15.0%	10.9%	4.1%	4.4%	7.29	6.00	—
2023	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	23	0	43	186	36	18	6	0%	1.9	14.3%	11.4%	2.9%	3.7%	4.85	5.39	—
2023	22	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	23	0	43	186	36	18	6	0%	1.9	19.4%	9.7%	9.7%	3.2%	4.85	4.51	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	64	280	54	23	5	0%	1.6	14.4%	9.5%	4.9%	2.4%	5.32	4.43	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	64	280	54	23	5	0%	1.6	14.4%	9.5%	4.9%	2.4%	5.32	4.43	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	64	280	54	23	5	0%	1.6	19.3%	8.2%	11.1%	1.8%	5.32	3.50	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	10	0	22	98	11	13	3	0%	2.2	8.6%	15.3%	-6.6%	3.8%	6.23	6.38	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	10	0	22	98	11	13	3	0%	2.2	8.6%	15.3%	-6.6%	3.8%	6.23	6.38	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	10	0	22	98	11	13	3	0%	2.2	11.2%	13.3%	-2.0%	3.1%	6.23	5.68	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CLE	18	0	19	80	14	9	2	0%	1.1	16.9%	11.4%	5.5%	3.0%	5.16	5.16	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CLE	19	0	20	84	15	9	3	0%	1.1	17.5%	11.2%	6.3%	3.1%	5.10	5.11	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	CLE	7	0	7	30	5	3	1	0%	1.0	17.5%	11.2%	6.3%	3.1%	5.10	5.11	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	5	3	1	0%	1.0	17.5%	11.2%	6.3%	3.1%	5.10	4.73	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	136	82	27	0%	1.1	17.5%	11.2%	6.3%	3.1%	5.10	4.73	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		133	33	322	1434	177	136	55	25%	2.4	12.3%	9.5%	2.9%	3.8%	5.48	5.37	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		83	20	200	891	110	84	34	25%	2.4	12.3%	9.5%	2.9%	3.8%	5.48	5.37	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dwayne Matos (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.16	16.9%	11.4%	3.0%	—	5.11	17.5%	6.3%	20	-0.05	—	—	—
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	86
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	81
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	80
Jose Campos R 2018 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	14.3%	9.1%	2.9%	.377	6.69	15.5%	4.5%	26	+2.03	3.28	241	79
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	78
Jeremy Guthrie R 2006 · 4.92 FIP	27	SU	4.92	15.1%	15.1%	2.1%	.349	4.57	14.8%	8.1%	566	-0.35	4.08	1,834	78
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	78
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	77
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	77
Brad Allen R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	26	SW	4.25	14.0%	12.6%	1.3%	.315	5.82	14.7%	1.5%	87	+1.57	4.25	149	77
Tim Corcoran R 2005 · 4.10 FIP	27	SU	4.10	13.4%	12.4%	1.0%	.254	4.77	13.7%	2.3%	108	+0.67	4.10	130	77
Jorge Campillo R 2007 · 4.84 FIP	28	SU	4.84	14.3%	9.5%	3.2%	.348	3.93	16.3%	10.8%	159	-0.91	3.93	172	77
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	77
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	77
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	77
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	76
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	76
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	76
Donovan Hand R 2013 · 4.72 FIP	27	SW	4.72	12.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.279	4.30	11.1%	6.8%	97	-0.42	4.30	305	76
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	76