Alejandro Lugo

P ACL Padres

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 165 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	20	MIX2 levels	20	0	45	5.40	2.99	30.9%	11.3%	—	K 21.6% · BB 14.0% · FIP 4.49
2024	21	MIX2 levels	26	1	54	3.02	4.29	17.4%	11.5%	—	K 12.5% · BB 13.3% · FIP 5.36
2025	22	MIX2 levels	18	1	27	5.93	3.87	23.1%	14.0%	—	K 17.2% · BB 18.1% · FIP 5.76
2027PROJ	24	MLBSD	15	0	16	5.09	5.09	20.4%	13.3%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBSD	10	0	11	4.92	4.85	21.2%	12.0%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsFrancisco Del Rosario (age 25) · Harrison Cohen (age 24) · Grayson Thurman (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.09

FIP5.09

K%20.4%

BB%13.3%

K-BB%7.1%

Proj IP16

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	16	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	19	0	22	102	24	13	0	0%	1.2	16.0%	15.9%	0.1%	0.0%	5.24	3.77	—
2019	16	ROK RAW	DSL Padres	19	0	22	102	24	13	0	0%	1.2	23.5%	12.7%	10.8%	0.0%	5.24	2.70	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	17	0	21	90	27	12	2	0%	1.2	20.4%	16.7%	3.7%	2.6%	3.86	4.91	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres	17	0	21	90	27	12	2	0%	1.2	30.0%	13.3%	16.7%	2.2%	3.86	3.48	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	45	204	63	23	4	0%	2.2	21.6%	14.0%	7.7%	2.6%	5.40	4.49	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	0	45	204	63	23	4	0%	2.2	30.9%	11.3%	19.6%	2.0%	5.40	2.99	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	1	54	235	41	27	5	4%	2.1	12.5%	13.3%	-0.8%	3.0%	3.02	5.36	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	1	54	235	41	27	5	4%	2.1	12.5%	13.3%	-0.8%	3.0%	3.02	5.36	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	1	54	235	41	27	5	4%	2.1	17.4%	11.5%	6.0%	2.1%	3.02	4.29	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	1	27	121	28	17	2	6%	1.5	17.2%	18.1%	-0.9%	3.3%	5.93	5.76	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	1	27	121	28	17	2	6%	1.5	17.2%	18.1%	-0.9%	3.3%	5.93	5.76	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	1	27	121	28	17	2	6%	1.5	23.1%	14.0%	9.1%	1.7%	5.93	3.87	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	SD	15	0	16	68	14	9	2	0%	1.1	20.4%	13.3%	7.1%	3.0%	5.09	5.09	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	SD	24	0	25	105	22	13	3	0%	1.0	21.2%	12.0%	9.2%	3.0%	4.92	4.85	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	SD	10	0	11	46	10	6	1	0%	1.1	21.2%	12.0%	9.2%	3.0%	4.92	4.85	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	45	10	5	1	0%	1.1	21.2%	12.0%	9.2%	3.0%	4.92	4.47	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	188	94	19	0%	1.1	21.2%	12.0%	9.2%	3.0%	4.92	4.47	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		100	2	169	752	129	113	19	2%	1.7	17.2%	15.0%	2.1%	2.5%	4.52	4.92	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		118	2	200	888	153	133	22	2%	1.7	17.2%	15.0%	2.1%	2.5%	4.52	4.92	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alejandro Lugo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.09	20.4%	13.3%	3.0%	—	4.85	21.2%	9.2%	25	-0.24	—	—	—
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	91
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	88
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	88
Michael Bowden R 2011 · 4.93 FIP	24	SU	4.93	18.9%	12.2%	3.4%	.271	4.22	17.1%	8.1%	77	-0.71	3.21	269	88
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	88
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	87
Luis Vizcaino R 2000 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	18.8%	11.5%	2.1%	.354	4.31	22.7%	14.9%	180	+0.20	3.07	564	86
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	86
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	86
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	86
Garrett Apker R 2024 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	19.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.288	8.46	15.4%	-7.6%	11	+4.45	4.01	101	86
Reid Schaller R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	20.2%	13.1%	2.8%	.298	3.89	22.0%	11.4%	90	-0.71	3.61	186	86
Casey Fien R 2009 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	17.0%	11.3%	3.8%	.306	2.79	22.7%	19.2%	35	-2.38	2.79	308	85
Julio Mateo R 2002 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	16.0%	12.8%	2.1%	.277	4.23	17.5%	13.8%	232	-0.31	3.42	318	85
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	85
Todd Wellemeyer R 2003 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	24.6%	14.8%	4.1%	.290	4.56	18.9%	4.8%	135	-0.58	3.35	615	85
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	85
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	85
Marc Brakeman R 2018 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.3%	13.7%	2.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	156	85
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	85