Osiris Santana prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Osiris Santana P ACL Royals

Age 24 RHP 5'11" / 158 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 12 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

K%22.8%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%12.7%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals 1	13	0	23	99	21	9	0	0%	1.8	14.4%	11.4%	3.1%	0.0%	2.74	3.32	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Royals 1	13	0	23	99	21	9	0	0%	1.8	21.2%	9.1%	12.1%	0.0%	2.74	2.45	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals White	12	12	46	184	39	4	1	100%	3.8	14.4%	2.7%	11.7%	0.8%	3.35	2.64	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Royals White	12	12	46	184	39	4	1	100%	3.8	21.2%	2.2%	19.0%	0.5%	3.35	1.94	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	18	0	22	97	26	4	2	0%	1.2	18.2%	5.2%	13.1%	2.8%	3.32	3.74	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	18	0	22	97	26	4	2	0%	1.2	26.8%	4.1%	22.7%	2.1%	3.32	2.45	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	14	0	21	97	19	10	1	0%	1.5	13.3%	12.9%	0.4%	1.4%	6.00	4.40	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	14	0	21	97	19	10	1	0%	1.5	13.3%	12.9%	0.4%	1.4%	6.00	4.40	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	14	0	21	97	19	10	1	0%	1.5	19.6%	10.3%	9.3%	1.0%	6.00	3.34	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	KC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.8%	10.1%	12.7%	3.0%	4.48	4.48	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	KC	19	0	20	84	20	8	3	0%	1.1	23.2%	9.6%	13.6%	3.0%	4.41	4.37	+0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	KC	9	0	9	38	9	4	1	0%	1.0	23.2%	9.6%	13.6%	3.0%	4.41	4.37	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	3	1	0%	1.1	23.2%	9.6%	13.6%	3.0%	4.41	3.99	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	70	23	0%	1.1	23.2%	9.6%	13.6%	3.0%	4.41	3.99	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		57	12	111	477	71	34	6	21%	2.0	15.0%	7.1%	7.9%	1.2%	3.72	3.37	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		102	22	200	857	128	61	10	21%	2.0	15.0%	7.1%	7.9%	1.2%	3.72	3.37	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Osiris Santana (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	22.8%	10.1%	3.0%	—	4.37	23.2%	13.6%	20	-0.11	—	—	—
Jonathan Papelbon R 2005 · 3.93 FIP	24	SW	3.93	23.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.305	1.90	31.3%	26.8%	196	-2.03	1.33	726	88
Garrett Mock R 2008 · 3.57 FIP	25	SU	3.57	25.6%	11.1%	2.2%	.300	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	91	+0.49	3.57	132	84
Grant Balfour R 2003 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	26.1%	10.4%	3.5%	.275	3.79	24.4%	12.8%	39	-0.34	2.04	533	83
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	82
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	82
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	81
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	81
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	80
Kyle Schepel R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	23.1%	10.7%	3.9%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.99	3.54	156	80
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	80
Stolmy Pimentel R 2014 · 4.13 FIP	24	SU	4.13	25.7%	9.5%	3.6%	.319	4.17	14.8%	4.3%	143	+0.04	3.87	176	80
Carlo Reyes R 2022 · 4.06 FIP	24	SW	4.06	20.4%	8.6%	2.9%	.318	3.92	24.1%	12.9%	61	-0.14	2.60	229	79
Kyle Martin R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.51	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.10	3.01	214	79
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	79
Nolan Clenney R 2021 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	25.5%	8.4%	3.1%	.340	4.35	22.4%	13.7%	185	+0.62	3.73	223	79
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	78
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	78
Danny Hrbek R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	21.3%	7.5%	3.1%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	100	78
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	78
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	78