Listher Sosa

P Hillsboro Hops

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 208 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	20	MIX2 levels	38	0	73	3.56	3.39	22.6%	9.1%	—	K 16.2% · BB 11.2% · FIP 4.50
2023	21	MIX2 levels	39	1	74	5.13	4.32	20.4%	8.2%	—	K 15.7% · BB 8.7% · FIP 4.77
2024	22	MIX3 levels	41	1	61	3.39	3.12	25.1%	8.1%	—	K 19.1% · BB 8.8% · FIP 3.51
2025	23	No MLB games played
2026	24	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	25	MLBARI	—	—	0	4.39	4.39	21.9%	9.0%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBARI	13	0	14	4.37	4.36	22.3%	9.0%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsBarrett Loseke (age 25) · Chris Jefferson (age 25) · Austin Ross (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 100

ERA4.39

FIP4.39

K%21.9%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%12.9%

Proj IP40

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates 1	11	11	53	210	51	15	3	100%	4.8	16.5%	8.9%	7.6%	2.0%	2.72	3.93	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates 1	11	11	53	210	51	15	3	100%	4.8	24.3%	7.1%	17.1%	1.4%	2.72	2.76	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates Black	11	2	31	132	33	5	3	18%	2.8	17.0%	4.7%	12.3%	3.3%	4.31	4.05	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates Black	11	2	31	132	33	5	3	18%	2.8	25.0%	3.8%	21.2%	2.3%	4.31	2.72	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	73	319	72	29	6	0%	1.9	16.2%	11.2%	5.1%	2.5%	3.56	4.50	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	73	319	72	29	6	0%	1.9	22.6%	9.1%	13.5%	1.9%	3.56	3.39	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	1	74	328	67	27	11	3%	1.9	15.7%	8.7%	7.0%	3.4%	5.13	4.77	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	1	74	328	67	27	11	3%	1.9	20.4%	8.2%	12.2%	3.4%	5.13	4.32	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	41	1	61	247	62	20	5	2%	1.5	19.1%	8.8%	10.3%	1.7%	3.39	3.51	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	41	1	61	247	62	20	5	2%	1.5	19.1%	8.8%	10.3%	1.7%	3.39	3.51	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	41	1	61	247	62	20	5	2%	1.5	25.1%	8.1%	17.0%	2.0%	3.39	3.12	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	ARI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.9%	9.0%	12.9%	3.0%	4.39	4.39	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	ARI	32	0	33	141	31	13	4	0%	1.0	22.3%	9.0%	13.3%	3.0%	4.37	4.36	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	ARI	13	0	14	59	13	5	2	0%	1.1	22.3%	9.0%	13.3%	3.0%	4.37	4.36	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	14	60	13	5	2	0%	1.0	22.3%	9.0%	13.3%	3.0%	4.37	3.98	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	181	70	28	0%	1.1	22.3%	9.0%	13.3%	3.0%	4.37	3.98	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		140	15	292	1236	208	111	32	11%	2.1	16.8%	9.0%	7.8%	2.6%	3.85	4.23	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		96	10	200	846	142	76	22	11%	2.1	16.8%	9.0%	7.8%	2.6%	3.85	4.23	+0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 A+Hillsboro Hops · 44 IPFIP 2.58 → 3.48 (+0.89)K% 25.0% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.770	19.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.78%	—	×1.150	8.94%
HR / BF /BF	1.11%	÷0.875	×1.250	1.59%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 75).

Result: FIP 2.58 → 3.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 13 IPFIP 3.18 → 3.62 (+0.44)K% 23.1% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.08%	—	×0.810	18.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.100	8.46%
HR / BF /BF	1.92%	÷1.229	×1.200	1.88%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 146).

Result: FIP 3.18 → 3.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Hillsboro Hops · 69 IPFIP 3.78 → 4.77 (+0.99)K% 20.3% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.33%	—	×0.770	15.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.54%	—	×1.150	8.67%
HR / BF /BF	2.62%	÷0.952	×1.250	3.45%

Result: FIP 3.78 → 4.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 4 IPFIP 10.63 → 9.28 (−1.34)K% 21.7% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.74%	—	×0.810	17.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.39%	—	×1.100	19.13%
HR / BF /BF	13.04%	÷1.637	×1.200	9.56%

Result: FIP 10.63 → 9.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AVisalia Rawhide · 68 IPFIP 3.56 → 4.50 (+0.95)K% 22.0% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.96%	—	×0.740	16.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.46%	—	×1.180	11.16%
HR / BF /BF	2.03%	÷1.062	×1.300	2.48%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 3.56 → 4.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Hillsboro Hops · 5 IPFIP 1.08 → 1.75 (+0.67)K% 30.4% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.43%	—	×0.770	23.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.35%	—	×1.150	5.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.848	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.08 → 1.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKFCL Pirates Black · 31 IPFIP 2.72 → 4.05 (+1.34)K% 25.0% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.680	17.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.79%	—	×1.250	4.73%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷0.976	×1.400	3.26%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 2.72 → 4.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKDSL Pirates 1 · 53 IPFIP 2.74 → 3.93 (+1.20)K% 24.3% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.29%	—	×0.680	16.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×1.250	8.93%
HR / BF /BF	1.43%	÷1.000	×1.400	2.00%

Result: FIP 2.74 → 3.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Listher Sosa (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.39	21.9%	9.0%	3.0%	—	4.36	22.3%	13.3%	33	-0.03	—	—	—
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.24	23.5%	12.2%	22	+0.82	4.42	152	88
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	86
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	86
Garrett Mock R 2008 · 3.57 FIP	25	SU	3.57	25.6%	11.1%	2.2%	.300	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	91	+0.49	3.57	132	86
Grant Balfour R 2003 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	26.1%	10.4%	3.5%	.275	3.79	24.4%	12.8%	39	-0.34	2.04	533	84
Danny Hrbek R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	21.3%	7.5%	3.1%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	100	84
Jordan Milbrath R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	19.9%	10.4%	2.4%	.272	3.61	19.6%	9.7%	129	-0.44	3.19	386	84
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	84
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	84
Adam Warren R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	19.3%	8.5%	2.8%	.306	3.43	20.5%	13.1%	275	-0.66	2.65	548	84
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	84
J.R. Graham R 2015 · 4.39 FIP	25	SU	4.39	18.7%	7.4%	3.5%	.317	3.63	20.4%	10.1%	61	-0.76	3.31	125	84
Shay Schanaman R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	21.0%	7.6%	3.7%	.292	6.05	16.4%	2.8%	90	+1.71	4.34	148	83
Garrett McMillan R 2024 · 3.30 FIP	23	SU	3.30	21.2%	8.2%	1.7%	.324	3.53	18.9%	14.6%	48	+0.23	3.30	118	83
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	83
José Cisnero R 2013 · 3.86 FIP	24	SU	3.86	20.7%	8.6%	2.6%	.326	4.50	26.1%	14.4%	12	+0.64	2.26	322	83
Nick Merkel R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	25	SU	3.99	22.8%	7.1%	3.5%	.284	3.44	20.7%	10.3%	129	-0.55	3.15	205	83
Alex Phillips R 2019 · 3.26 FIP	24	SU	3.26	22.0%	8.0%	1.8%	.263	4.62	23.2%	14.6%	72	+1.36	3.26	139	83
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	83
Blake Goldsberry R 2022 · 3.43 FIP	25	SU	3.43	23.6%	8.3%	2.3%	.257	5.26	23.6%	12.0%	44	+1.83	3.43	117	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	37	22.1%	9.0%	1.14	4.38
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*