Eli Saul

P Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 25 RHP 6'5" / 215 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	21	MIX3 levels	44	7	69	4.98	4.21	17.4%	11.4%	—	K 12.6% · BB 14.2% · FIP 5.41
2024	22	A+ARI	36	0	35	5.40	4.39	15.8%	9.1%	—	K 12.1% · BB 10.5% · FIP 5.30
2025	23	MIX2 levels	53	1	63	4.74	4.95	18.8%	18.1%	—	K 14.8% · BB 20.2% · FIP 5.44
2027PROJ	25	MLBARI	37	0	39	5.75	5.75	16.7%	16.7%	-0.5
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBARI	24	0	25	5.56	5.52	18.2%	15.9%	-0.3
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBARI	33	0	35	5.47	5.47	18.6%	15.5%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsHaden Erbe (age 25) · Ray Gaither (age 25) · Andrew McInvale (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142134vR 126

ERA5.75

FIP5.75

K%16.7%

BB%16.7%

K-BB%-0.1%

Proj IP39

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Red	3	0	3	16	3	4	0	0%	1.0	18.8%	25.0%	-6.2%	0.0%	3.00	4.68	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs Red	3	0	3	16	3	4	0	0%	1.0	18.8%	25.0%	-6.2%	0.0%	3.00	5.10	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	7	69	316	55	36	6	16%	1.6	12.6%	14.2%	-1.6%	2.9%	4.98	5.41	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	44	7	69	316	55	36	6	16%	1.6	17.4%	11.4%	6.0%	1.9%	4.98	4.21	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	36	0	35	165	26	15	4	0%	1.0	12.1%	10.5%	1.7%	3.5%	5.40	5.30	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	36	0	35	165	26	15	4	0%	1.0	12.1%	10.5%	1.7%	3.5%	5.40	5.30	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Hillsboro Hops	36	0	35	165	26	15	4	0%	1.0	15.8%	9.1%	6.7%	2.4%	5.40	4.39	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	1	63	304	57	55	5	2%	1.2	14.8%	20.2%	-5.5%	1.9%	4.74	5.44	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	1	63	304	57	55	5	2%	1.2	14.8%	20.2%	-5.5%	1.9%	4.74	5.44	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	1	63	304	57	55	5	2%	1.2	18.8%	18.1%	0.7%	1.6%	4.74	4.95	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	ARI	37	0	39	165	27	28	5	0%	1.1	16.7%	16.7%	-0.1%	2.8%	5.75	5.75	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	ARI	54	0	56	238	43	38	7	0%	1.0	18.2%	15.9%	2.3%	2.8%	5.56	5.52	-0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	ARI	53	0	56	235	44	36	7	0%	1.0	18.6%	15.5%	3.1%	2.9%	5.47	5.47	-0.6
2028	26	MLB CTX	ARI	24	0	25	106	19	17	3	0%	1.0	18.2%	15.9%	2.3%	2.8%	5.56	5.52	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	ARI	33	0	35	148	27	23	4	0%	1.1	18.6%	15.5%	3.1%	2.9%	5.47	5.47	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		57	0	60	253	47	40	7	0%	1.1	18.4%	15.7%	2.7%	2.9%	5.51	5.11	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	157	133	23	0%	1.1	18.4%	15.7%	2.7%	2.9%	5.51	5.11	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		136	8	169	801	108	128	20	6%	1.2	13.5%	15.9%	-2.5%	2.6%	4.94	5.38	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		161	9	200	946	127	151	24	6%	1.2	13.5%	15.9%	-2.5%	2.6%	4.94	5.38	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Eli Saul (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.75	16.7%	16.7%	2.8%	—	5.50	18.4%	2.7%	112	-0.25	—	—	—
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	91
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.13	18.4%	7.3%	90	-0.76	3.84	164	89
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	89
Yordy Cabrera R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	15.8%	17.2%	1.9%	.321	4.17	13.7%	2.7%	140	-0.82	3.43	159	88
Michael Blazek R 2013 · 5.52 FIP	24	SU	5.52	16.7%	15.5%	3.4%	.241	3.81	19.8%	10.3%	97	-1.71	2.99	238	86
Luis García R 2013 · 4.92 FIP	26	SU	4.92	16.7%	16.7%	2.0%	.270	3.68	20.3%	9.3%	151	-1.24	2.33	662	86
Danny Reynolds R 2016 · 4.72 FIP	25	SU	4.72	16.6%	16.8%	1.6%	.263	3.71	16.0%	4.3%	88	-1.01	3.29	165	86
Jeff Ames R 2016 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	18.0%	16.1%	2.8%	.229	4.34	25.2%	11.2%	142	-0.83	3.85	272	86
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	85
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	85
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	84
Aroni Nina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	16.8%	20.5%	1.1%	.312	3.04	18.8%	8.7%	64	-1.86	2.68	115	84
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	84
Cre Finfrock R 2022 · 6.31 FIP	26	SU	6.31	16.7%	25.2%	2.6%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	103	84
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	84
Connor Cooke R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	24	SU	5.02	17.4%	17.0%	2.2%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	2.93	103	83
Yunior Thibo R 2023 · 5.32 FIP	25	SU	5.32	14.3%	15.6%	2.7%	.231	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	110	83
Chad Harville R 2003 · 5.17 FIP	26	SU	5.17	17.3%	15.4%	2.9%	.328	4.84	17.6%	6.5%	142	-0.33	4.51	178	83
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	83
Lukas Schiraldi R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	25	SU	5.00	18.7%	19.3%	1.9%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	319	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	50	17.9%	16.0%	1.11	5.58
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*